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Old 09-09-2013, 07:27 PM    (permalink
Jcn92
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Default 2013 Heisman Watch

I thought I might make a thread where people can talk about who they think should win the Heisman, list their favorite candidates, and other Heisman related topics throughout the season.

Here's who I think is in the running for the award so far:

DeAnthony Thomas - I have been very impressed with Thomas so far, especially because of the amount of carries he is getting. He is shedding the role of feature back and through two games shown that he can be the team's primary back, not just one who is featured on select plays. Thomas also is the type of player who will have exciting SC Top Ten plays which voters love.

Marcus Mariota - I heard someone compare him to Colin Kaepernick which I think is an apt comparison. Mariota is showing that he is a polished passer who is also one of the fastest players on the field. If Oregon continues to sit around the top five in the polls and Mariota continues to put up the numbers he's putting up he's a strong candidate for the award.

Johnny Manziel - I think that the dislike for Manziel around the country might have some effect on his chances, but if he is able to beat Alabama a second time even the people who don't like him will not be able to deny how talented of a QB he is. If he puts up the numbers he did last year he's automatically a candidate because of his performance in the SEC.

Todd Gurley - Gurley is quickly becoming everyone's favorite college football player. Playing in the SEC he has a great opportunity to become a legitimate candidate for the Heisman. His candidacy reminds me of Mark Ingram's in 2009. They are both sophomores with a similar playing style, ultimately I think Gurley is more talented, but Ingram had the luxury of playing for a team in the National Championship. UGA's national championship hopes aren't over and if Gurley continues to carry UGA like he did against South Carolina he'll be in New York come December.

Tajh Boyd - Boyd has the luxury of already being atop the list of many Heisman voter's lists and has already had a great showing against Georgia. I think he has the luxury of a slip up game as long as that game is not against FSU or South Carolina. If he loses to FSU it'll be hard to win the ACC and will look bad because it's at home to a team they'd be favored to beat. Beating South Carolina in Columbia would be the icing on the cake for his Heisman candidacy. He'd have beat two SEC teams in one season, one at home and one on the road. One of my concerns is that Heisman candidates usually enhance their chances by padding their stats against weaker opponents on their schedule, see Manziel's stats against non conference opponents last year. Boyd had an opportunity to do that this past weekend but got injured and did not return.

Zach Mettenberger - Like Manziel and Gurley Mettenberger has the potential to put up big numbers in the SEC which gives him a chance. I have been very impressed with the LSU's passing attack thus far and he has two solid weapons in Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham not to mention a John Chavis defense to help him out when he's not on the field.

Teddy Bridgewater - His chances of winning the award are probably slim because of the weak schedule that he plays against. I would go as far as to say that his candidacy is akin to Carr and the previous WAC QBs who have been up for the award because they both put up ridiculous numbers and had undefeated seasons (with the exception of Kellen Moore) while facing a very easy schedule.

Jameis Winston - I think Winston will have to go undefeated in order to win the award. Manziel won as a RS Freshman last year, but he did so in the SEC and did not have nearly as favorable a schedule as Winston. Winston has a really good chance to put himself as a top candidate for the award when he goes to Clemson. If he has a stellar game in Death Valley and follows up with great performances against Miami and at Florida he's definitely a got a shot to do what Manziel did last year.

Melvin Gordon & James White - If one of them emerges as the primary back and continues to put up the stats that they are putting up or puts up even better stats against their Big 10 schedule they've got a shot. We saw Montee Ball get invited to the ceremony this way, however he showed that in order to get invited you probably have to win the Big 10 and play in the Rose Bowl.

Lache Seastrunk - After watching the first two weeks of the college football season it's pretty clear that the Big 12 is pretty bad. This means that Baylor is definitely a legit contender to win the conference and get an automatic BCS bid. Seastrunk has the benefit of playing in an extremely high scoring offense. His final game of the season? The one that will be the last image Heisman voters see before they turn in their ballots? Texas. Imagine what he could do to that run defense.

Derek Carr - Do I think he has a realistic chance of winning? No. But he will generate some buzz if he continues to put up the numbers that he has through two games and if he can guide Fresno State to an undefeated season. His candidacy is similar in my mind to Alex Smith's in the 2004 season, Colt Brennan's 2007 season and Kellen Moore's in the 2010 season.

Notable omissions (for now):

Jadeveon Clowney: He's been a non-factor in two games so far.
Braxton Miller: He hasn't wowed agains't lesser competition thus far and lost a great chance to put up big numbers when he left the SDSU game early.
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Old 09-09-2013, 08:12 PM    (permalink
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Bryce Petty QB Baylor
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Old 09-15-2013, 01:22 AM    (permalink
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Melvin Gordon is a beast
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Old 09-16-2013, 06:30 PM    (permalink
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Here's who my top five candidates would be right now:

Marcus Mariota - He's the frontrunner in my mind. On Saturday he did what no QB in the Chip Kelly era ever did by passing for 400 yards. Through three games so far he already has 889 passing yards and he continues to remind of Colin Kaeprnick with everything he does. He's the best player on the team that most people see as having the only realistic shot of beating Bama.

Johnny Manziel - His performance on Saturday was, statistically speaking, probably the best of his short career. He still has opportunities to impress the voters with road games at Ole Miss and at LSU the second to last game of the season. If he can pull off a performance like the one against Alabama at LSU it's going to be hard not to give him the trophy.

Tajh Boyd - Bye Week

Todd Gurley - Bye Week

AJ McCarron - He took his team on the road this past week and led them to a win, that's got to count for something. I don't think he'll put up the stats of other Heisman QB's because of Alabama's running game and how much they'll play with the lead, but I think in his senior year he gets some love because of his body of work. Also it's only week two and a lot of guys who also are big names had bye weeks.


Here's my thoughts on a few guys outside my top five:

DeAnthony Thomas - Thomas is showing that he can play running back exclusively thus far this season. He's gotten double digit carries in all three games so far and six rushing touchdowns. He isn't as big a factor in the receiving game where he only has three receptions and no touchdowns. He'll get invited to New York if he keeps it up, but he'll finish behind Mariota.

Teddy Bridgewater (Stock Down) - On the road against an inferior opponent Bridgewater had the chance to put up big numbers and make a statement. He was held to less than 200 yards and only threw 1 touchdown pass.

Jameis Winston - His numbers against Nevada were not as good as the ones he put up his first week but I think he has a legit shot to be a finalist. He has the talent needed and can put up the numbers, but his personality makes him a likeable person in the eyes of fans. He already has a cult following that will only get bigger as the season goes on.

New guy to consider Bishop Sankey - Sankey has carried his team in both of their wins so far rushing for over 150 yards in both games. This past week he went on the road and carried for over 200 yards while averaging 6 yards a carry. He'll be in the running in November if he can keep these numbers up in Pac 12 play.
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Old 09-19-2013, 03:11 AM    (permalink
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Can you imagine if Lache Seastrunk stayed at Oregon???

Also, AJ McCarron would be the most boring QB to win the Heisman trophy ever. He has to do something real special the final 10 games of the season to earn a single vote.
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Old 09-19-2013, 08:48 AM    (permalink
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Can you imagine if Lache Seastrunk stayed at Oregon???

Also, AJ McCarron would be the most boring QB to win the Heisman trophy ever. He has to do something real special the final 10 games of the season to earn a single vote.
He would split carries his entire career and would never have been the man at Oregon like he is at Baylor.
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Old 09-23-2013, 01:54 PM    (permalink
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My leaders after week four:

Marcus Mariota - Bye Week
Johnny Manziel - Put up solid stats in an easy win over SMU despite not playing the entire game.
Tajh Boyd - Coming off of a bye week he took his team on the road to Raleigh and lead them to victory in a dangerous environment.
Todd Gurley - Bye Week, has a chance to really do something special this weekend though if he can put up big numbers against a John Chavis coached defense.

These are the only guys who right now I could call legitimate contenders for the Heisman. It's to early to put a guy like Seastrunk or Petty with the guys I listed because they haven't played anyone or been challenged yet. Here are my thoughts on some other guys on the fringe:

Derek Carr (Stock Up) - Made a huge statement by leading his team on a 4th quarter drive for a touchdown that would wind up being the game winning touchdown against a talented Boise State team. He had his best game of the season too throwing for 460 yards and four touchdowns. Fresno State should be favored in every game the rest of the season and if they win out and make a BCS bowl Carr should at least be in NYC for the Heisman Ceremony.

Zach Mettenberger (Stock Down) - Mettenberger had a mediocre performance against a mediocre SEC team at home. In addition to that, Jeremy Hill had a monster game and it appears that with Hill back LSU won't be letting Mettenberger pass as much as he was in the team's first three games.

Melvin Gordon - He's leading the NCAA in rushing yards and of the guys I have on the fringe, I would say Gordon is the best. He had another monster game against Purdue scoring three touchdowns. Sometimes Heisman voters will count a player's win loss record against him or use it when comparing two players, I don't think they will count the ASU lost against Gordon though. He'll enter my list of legitimate contenders if he is able to have an impressive performance against Ohio State this weekend. He's got chances over the next two weeks to make noise, playing at Ohio State and getting Northwestern at home the following weekend.
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Old 09-23-2013, 01:55 PM    (permalink
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You don't think Seastrunk has a shot?
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Old 09-23-2013, 02:18 PM    (permalink
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You don't think Seastrunk has a shot?
I think he has a shot. I'm just not ready to put him with Mariota, Manziel, Gurley and Boyd. Those guys I've listed have all put up impressive numbers against opponents from BCS conferences and just talented teams in general. I can't call Seastrunk a legit contender yet though because he's faced Wofford, Buffalo, and Louisiana Monroe. He's got a shot to prove himself over the next two weeks against an improved West Virginia defense and at Kansas State. Part of the reason I think he has a shot to win is the games at the end of Baylor's schedule. Baylor's final five games are Oklahoma, Texas Tech, at Oklahoma State, at TCU, and then Texas at home on senior night. If he can rattle of big numbers in those games, specifically against Oklahoma and TCU then I think he has a really good shot. The Oklahoma State game could also be big as that could decide the Big 12 champion. I like his chances though because he is facing Texas' defense at home in Baylor's final game of the season. RGIII faced Texas at home in the final game of Baylor's regular season and we know how he did in Heisman voting.

I'm pulling for Seastrunk to win. I love how he guaranteed winning the Heisman at the end of last season and love his style of play.
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Old 09-23-2013, 02:51 PM    (permalink
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I think Seastrunk has the greatest shot, the big thing is the QB is putting up huge numbers as well and they have to keep winning. The big 12 is weak this year, so they should come out with minimal losses if any.
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Old 10-01-2013, 04:16 PM    (permalink
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My leaders after week five:

Marcus Mariota - It says something about Mariota when his worst performance, statistically speaking, thus far is one in which he accounted for three touchdowns in a monsoon on the road at Cal. The Ducks weren't able to air it out like they had in past games because of the weather, but Mariota still contributed plenty in the blowout.

Johnny Manziel - Like Mariota he too went on the road and helped his team to a victory in a torrential downpour. He did not disappoint in his first SEC road game of the year and got his team out of Fayetteville with a win.

Tajh Boyd - He did what he had to do in an easy home game against Wake Forest. He still hasn't thrown an interception on the season and has 13 total touchdowns on the season. His play so far this year has been good but not great and he's going to have have a "Heisman Moment" or two later on in the season if he wants to be considered for the award.

My thoughts on some fringe guys:

Todd Gurley (Stock Down) - I had to drop Gurley because of the injury and the uncertainty surrounding it. However because UGA won and put themselves back in the national championship race he'll have a chance to put himself back in the race for the Heisman.

Bishop Sankey (Stock Up) - Sankey was another guy who put his team on his back in terrible weather. Sankey got the ball 40 times and rushed for 161 yards in a win over Arizona. He's currently leading the NCAA in average yards per game. He's got a big chance to put himself in the race this Saturday at Stanford.

Jameis Winston (Stock Up) - Winston's hail mary at the end of the half is one of those plays that they'll show one ESPN over and over again come November and December. Winston is an exciting player to watch and has the potential to be the QB of an undefeated football team. I'm still waiting to see how he does at Clemson and against Miami at home, but if he can win both of those games he'll be in my frontrunners group.

Melvin Gordon (Stock Down) - Ohio State bottled him up and held up below 80 yards on 15 carries. With two losses it's going to be tough for him to break out and get in the race.
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Old 10-05-2013, 03:30 PM    (permalink
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I would have Winston in my frontrunners group even with Boyd. The performance he put on today was spectacular. You look at the recent Heisman Trophy winners and they all have a narrative that is fun for the media and fans to follow. Winston clearly has that narrative and makes the plays that people get excited about when they show up on ESPN highlight reels. Winston already has a bunch of awesome "moments" so far this season, his debut at Pitt, his hailmary against BC, his amazing scramble and TD pass to O'Leary today. I'm not saying these are the things that we should judge players on but it's how Heisman recepients have been judge recently. Are you exciting? Cam Newton had the Alabama game and the hail mary in the SEC championship, RGIII had his come from behind win against TCU, his amazing win against Oklahoma, and the rout of Texas in the final game of the season. Manziel had his performance at Alabama where he had his amazing pass to Swope in the first half. I think RGIII showed that you don't have to have an impeccable win loss record to get the Heisman, his team lost three games against strong opponents but voters didn't look at that. They looked at his exciting plays.
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Old 10-06-2013, 07:36 AM    (permalink
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Winston is just an unreal talent.
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Old 10-06-2013, 07:40 AM    (permalink
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Winston through 5 games:

90/123 for 1443 Passing Yds - 73CMP%

17:2 - TD:INT ratio (+2 more Rushing TDs)

Sat out 4th Q vs Nevada, Bethune, and most of Maryland.
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"I wasn't going to lose to Miami, no matter what," Freeman said. "It means a lot to go out there and beat them. Every time I get a chance, I want to destroy them."
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Old 10-06-2013, 07:43 AM    (permalink
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Didn't he miss a good portion of the 4th vs. Pitt as well?
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Old 10-06-2013, 07:47 AM    (permalink
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Didn't he miss a good portion of the 4th vs. Pitt as well?
Not too much - it might have been a series or two at the very end.


If Boyd is in your Heisman list - then Jameis better be too because he has equal to or better #'s in every statistical category.

I think this Clemson/FSU game is a big game for the Heisman watch for the both of them.
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"I wasn't going to lose to Miami, no matter what," Freeman said. "It means a lot to go out there and beat them. Every time I get a chance, I want to destroy them."
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Old 10-07-2013, 06:09 AM    (permalink
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Winston is my leader for the Heisman. All he has to do is play well in the games against Clemson and Miami, not necessarily win.
I don't think there's a better QB in college right now and if he were draft eligible, there's a good chance he'd go 1/1.

Maryland isn't a dog football team this season. They'll probably win about 8 games. What Winston and that FSU offense(and defense) did to them was criminally dominant.

Jimbo Fisher got the memo that when your offense scores a ton of points, it's easier to play defense and rush the hell out of the passer.

This kid looks like a combo of Roethlisberger/Luck/Newton.
Hard to to tackle, cerebral, accurate, huge arm and athletic.
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Old 10-07-2013, 08:55 AM    (permalink
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If it were today I'd put Winston, Boyd, Mariota, and Manziel in New York and give it to Winston.
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Old 10-07-2013, 12:49 PM    (permalink
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My leaders after week six:

Jameis Winston - I had to think hard about whether to put Winston on top. I didn't want to over react to one game, but if you look at his numbers he has been very efficient, more so than Mariota. What he did to Maryland's defense was ridiculous and it should be noted that Maryland's defense typically is not a bad defense. They run a solid 3-4 and do a really good job typically of stopping the opponent.

Johnny Manziel - Bye

Marcus Mariota - Mariota's drop in my ranking is a result of him not rushing as much as he used to and his passing being less efficient than the other QB's in my rankings. He's got a big opportunity to put on a show this Saturday against Washington. Boyd has been a more efficient passer than Mariota but Mariota has accounted for more points, 21 touchdowns to 18. Also Mariota has not thrown an interception where as Boyd has thrown two.

Tajh Boyd - Boyd had his best game of the season on Saturday against Syracuse. Since the NC State game his games performances have gotten better and better. Right now I'm in wait and see mode with him. In two weeks after he plays FSU we'll know whether he is a legit contender or not.

Lache Seastrunk - In his first game against a BCS opponent Seastrunk had his best game of the season. The numbers he is putting up are absolutely ridiculous. But like Boyd I'm in wait and see mode with Seastrunk. We will not know if he is a legit Heisman candidate until later in the season when Baylor gets into the meat of its schedule. November is the month that is make or break for Heisman candidates and Seastrunk will have several games in November to make his case for the award.

Fringe:

Derek Carr - If any of the guys who I have listed above get injured, begin to perform poorly, or if their team begins to lose Carr will be able to jump into the Heisman conversation. In the meantime he's going to have to continue to put up 300-400 yards a game and throw 4-5 touchdowns a game and hope that somebody from the list above falls out of the race.

Bishop Sankey - I'm not giving up on Sankey yet. He had a solid game in a loss to Stanford and was key in Washington's come back effort. He's got another shot against Oregon this weekend to make a name for himself on the national stage.
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Old 10-08-2013, 04:25 PM    (permalink
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where would u rank Aaron Murray?
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Old 10-08-2013, 11:38 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by georgiafan View Post
where would u rank Aaron Murray?
That's a good question, I was thinking about it earlier today. I hadn't really thought of him as a contender but then I thought about his resume thus far, beating LSU, winning at Tennessee with all his skill position players out due to injury, and I think he could make a case for the award. But the loss at Clemson in week one hurts a lot. Also, he isn't as "exciting" a player as Winston, Mariota, or Seastrunk. As I previously said I don't think that making awesome plays or being exciting to watch should be considered when considering the Heisman recipient, but it appears it does factor into voter's decisions.

The other factor that will play into whether or not Murray gets consideration is what type of numbers he puts up compared to Mariota, Manziel, Boyd, and Winston. Mariota, Manziel, and Boyd have the advantage of playing in up tempo offenses where they can put up big stats both passing and rushing. I believe the past three winners of the Heisman show that voters don't really consider the offense that you are playing in or what the pass/run ratio is, voters will vote for the player who puts up the most stats on one of the best teams. I don't know whether Murray will be able to put up the stats to compete with Mariota, Boyd, and Manziel and he doesn't have the exciting factor that Winston has. It's also going to be hard with the loss of so many of skill position players to put up big numbers.

At the end of the day I would put him right outside the top five, especially coming after his performance at Tennessee. But I think it's going to be tough for him to when you look at the other candidates, how much talent UGA has lost, and his road loss at Clemson.
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Old 10-09-2013, 10:31 AM    (permalink
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I don't see winning at Tennessee as a big plus considering the beat down Oregon put on them.
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Old 10-09-2013, 11:07 AM    (permalink
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The ACC put this video out....

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Old 10-09-2013, 11:10 AM    (permalink
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Murray also seems to be losing a different weapon every week on offense putting more of the burden on himself to make plays which he has been doing. He has faced a more difficult schedule to this point than any of the other current Heisman candidates. Murray is just one of those players everyone on this board loves to hate.
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Old 10-09-2013, 12:42 PM    (permalink
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I don't see winning at Tennessee as a big plus considering the beat down Oregon put on them.
Not because of the talent level of Tennessee but it was a hostile environment and he was able to put up big stats with all of his WRs and RBs out of the game. And his defense wasn't really helping out either.
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