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Old 10-08-2013, 09:07 AM    (permalink
bigbluedefense
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Originally Posted by draftguru151 View Post
Basically how I feel. No excuse to not have your best players on the field so you can run right at a DL that has been dominating your OL the entire game to that point. I wonder what percentage of runs up the middle work on on __ and short plays. Quick off tackle plays with the playside guard kicking out>>>>>>
The worst part was there was no element of surprise at all. The whole defense knew it was a run up the gut. There was no design to make them stutter before hitting their gaps. That play was destined to fail.

And matchups. Your interior OL is awful. Their interior DL is amazing. So you run right at it? Like come on. Think matchups. It was just an awful call.
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Old 10-08-2013, 09:14 AM    (permalink
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I think 4 Jets could have made the tackle in the backfield by themselves.
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Old 10-08-2013, 09:16 AM    (permalink
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That's the perfect example of where coaching cost you. I'm all for player execution, and like any negative play, you can always go to the tape and say well if X blocked Y we'd score etc, but I think coaches need some accountability at times too.

That play is a low percentage play given what we know of the circumstance. That's on the coaches to me.
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Old 10-08-2013, 10:17 AM    (permalink
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the steelers, in the roughly game and a half i've seen, need far more than one offseason. i think roethlisberger is about the only thing keeping them out of jacksonville levels of bad. i'm not sure how much of that is salvageable.

the giants have a qb and some wrs. maybe a de, but maybe he's hurt. in about the same number of minutes watched, you suck slightly less, but only because eli actually has some guys to throw to. no part of that looks like a team that's a year away. it looks like a team that's a play away from quitting every time they step onto the field, which is sad given that y'all are in the only division that's still easily winnable for an 0-5 team.

really, both teams look about as bad as denver will look when peyton retires, but for completely different reasons.
First off, your negativity is outstanding. Never let up. I honestly don't think the Broncos will be this bad when Peyton retires.

Second, I do agree the Steelers are in rough shape due to their age catching up, which basically means they haven't drafted very well at all lately. They have average offensive skill players, a mediocre at best OL. Now for defense:
Polamalu is 32
Clark is 33
Taylor is 33
Keisel is 35
Foote is 33

They need a couple of good drafts to replace the aging starters on defense and infuse talent in the skill positions on offense.
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Old 10-08-2013, 10:19 AM    (permalink
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I think a major issue with the Giants are what you eluded to: they quit. Which is why a coaching change and a fresh start is in order. We have 20 free agents at the end of this year and can cut even more guys, so this team is going to look entirely different next year. A lot of the veterans from the 2 SB teams are going to be gone.

We have a qb, WRs, OTs, and in theory you'd hope RBs on offense. We need a TE and interior OL. On defense we have passable DT play, but need 2 DEs, a whole new LB core, a CB and 1 safety.

With so much money being freed up after this year, I expect us to be major players in FA. I want Byrd and Albert.

This season I want us to keep tanking and take Clowney. That would solve a lot of problems on defense by default.
When a team is 0-5, and has the second-worst point differential in the league second only to the historically awful Jaguars, is 30th in scoring and 32nd in defense...

it's more than a quit job.

Quitting is what the 2009 Giants did when they realized that their defensive coordinator was incompetent - they gave up the most points in Giants history to that point and ended the season 8-8 despite plenty of talent on their team on both offense and defense.

The 2013 Giants are a whole different ball game. When you're getting blown out every single week, it's not quitting. It's a talent issue. This team lacks talent at many points in the roster.

On offense:

Their OL is in shambles and needs to be rebuilt from scratch. Their WRs are sketchy outside of Victor Cruz, who is a very good slot receiver but not a #1 outside receiver. Their only starting caliber RB is a question mark due to fumbling problems. Their TEs are non-entities.

On defense:

Their DL used to be one of the best, but now Osi is gone, Tuck is a shell of his former self, and Jason Pierre Paul is being exposed now as an average player now that he is the only credible pass rush threat on the line. The rest of their DL is a bunch of 2-gap run stuffer types (with very little pass rush ability) like Mike Patterson, Linval Joseph, and Jonathan Hankins. Their LBs are utter garbage across the board. Their DBs are bad with the exception of Prince Amukmara.

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Old 10-08-2013, 10:24 AM    (permalink
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I think the Steelers just need a whole new defense. Their secondary is awful and old. Their LB core outside of Woodley is mediocre and/or old. And Woodley is a fat body on top of that. Was never a Jarvis Jones fan. Their DL old. Old old old. They're just old.

On offense they have no skill position talent. Brown is an overpaid #2 WR pretending to be a 1. Sanders is a #3 pretending to be a 2. Miller is old now. Their OL sucks. The G from Stanford (name is escaping me) isn't playing well. Neither is their OTs.

And Haley is a bit of a tool as well.

They're in bigger trouble. They might need 2 offseasons.
The exact same position the Giants are in.
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Old 10-08-2013, 10:24 AM    (permalink
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What's the math behind going for it there? 100% chance of 3 points, and 50%(guessing) chance of 7, and 3.5>3 so you go for it?
The calculations are not nearly taht simple. Here is a nice article (with links to an actual study) that explains it pretty well.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2...o-for-it/?_r=0
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Old 10-08-2013, 10:26 AM    (permalink
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So apparently someone did all the research for 4th down conversions by play type, 2 back power plays work 62% of the time, outside run works 78%, PA pass works 57%, spread run works 76%, spread pass works 53%. Those are all 4th and 2 or less plays though, not just goalline stuff.

I guess 4th and 2 or less comes out to 67% chance of converting overall, though again that's not 4th and goal.

No matter what running Quizz straight at the Jets was an awful call.
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Old 10-08-2013, 10:28 AM    (permalink
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Thank you both DG and Drylie for seeing the path. And Ache Ten is actually right, the Giants absolutely suck, quitting on your coach excuse or not.
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Old 10-08-2013, 10:30 AM    (permalink
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I think teams should crunch these numbers and simulate these situations during practice in TC, and see how their individual units perform in these scenarios.

That way they know what their own success rate is with their options in those scenarios.

I personally feel more teams should go for it on 4th down in general. I'm kind of hoping Chip knocks some sense into the NFL coaching world by setting the trend (moreso than Bellichick has in the past).
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Old 10-08-2013, 10:32 AM    (permalink
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Eh I've agreed with the idealogy for a bit in certain situations, was just curious on what math they were using behind it (theory anyway, not actual percentages). Is the fg%xfg_points
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Old 10-08-2013, 11:14 AM    (permalink
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Guys, there is only 1 win btw the Giants, Steelers, and Falcons this year.

This football season is the suxorz.
The crazy thing to me is that Eli, Ben, and Ryan are all healthy and they have those records.
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Old 10-08-2013, 11:18 AM    (permalink
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The crazy thing to me is that Eli, Ben, and Ryan are all healthy and they have those records.
I think Ryan turns it around. I think the Falcons can be a 8-8 type of team at the end of the season.

But Ben and Eli have no hope. I see 3 to 4 wins at most for the Giants, maybe 5 for Pittsburgh because they have a better defense and Ben can create with his feet.
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Old 10-08-2013, 11:28 AM    (permalink
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Feel free to provide facts.


Not sure why this one is a debate. If the Falcons kick the FG before the half they kick a FG on 4th down in the 4th quarter and the score is 27-27. The Jets drive down the field and a kick a FG and win 30-27. Nothing changes.

Next time don't run the ball with a 180 pound RB that runs a 4.8 on the goal line
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Old 10-08-2013, 11:31 AM    (permalink
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I remember when Unbiased used to defend Blaine Gabbert and get on us for laughing at how terrible he was.

Whatever happened to him? Is he ok? Did Blaine push him over the edge?
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Old 10-08-2013, 11:34 AM    (permalink
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Remember "the natural"? As much as I don't like to get on people for being wrong about this kind of stuff (fact of the matter is that we all are), his spiel about Luck deciding against coming out his sophomore year because Gabbert was that much better of a prospect was pretty memorable.
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Old 10-08-2013, 11:43 AM    (permalink
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Remember "the natural"? As much as I don't like to get on people for being wrong about this kind of stuff (fact of the matter is that we all are), his spiel about Luck deciding against coming out his sophomore year because Gabbert was that much better of a prospect was pretty memorable.
The natural was totally associated with Gabbert somehow. Had to be a vested interest in pimping Gabbert there. Probably did it across the online draft sphere.
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Old 10-08-2013, 12:11 PM    (permalink
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The natural was totally associated with Gabbert somehow. Had to be a vested interest in pimping Gabbert there. Probably did it across the online draft sphere.
I don't know if it is the same person, but there is some guy on Twitter who LOVES the Gabbert family. He said UCF would be in serious trouble since Tyler (Blaine's younger brother) left thetthe team. This Sunday he was hyping Blaine. He said that Blainr is better now than Brees was at this age and with good coaching, he will eventually be better than Brees. He also says he hopes the Saints sign Gabbert after he is cut because he can sit brhind Brees for a few years and then when he retires the Saints won't miss a step.

His name is Gordon Sommers I believe. He litterally sits on Twitter and attacks anyome who bad mouths the Gabbert family. It could be the natural.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 10-08-2013, 12:17 PM    (permalink
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Julio Jones out for the year. Welcome Atlanta to the #TankForClowney race.
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Old 10-08-2013, 12:19 PM    (permalink
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I am almost always in favor of going for it on fourth and goal from inside the 1.

But part of that is because if you fail you have a terrific chance at getting the ball back in their territory as a direct result of failing (just a little later after a 3 and out or even a first down or two then a stoop) AND a chance for 2 points and the ball back on a safety.

So with halftime right there, they lost that advantage.

Also the way that game was being played, it just would have felt better to get the three, come in at half down 7 and you have an easy halftime adjustment period and motivational angle "we have them right where we want them, D gets a stop, we get the ball back, tie it up, and we're back in business."

Instead, the Jets win the first half convincingly, their confidence is sky high and Rex has them flying around again.

How many times do we see a team, and a lot of times agianst ATL in the dome, come out FLYING around on D stifling them and then the home team makes some plays and they lose their confidence. That could have happened but I thought Rex had a HELL of a game. And Morningweigh called an outstanding game as well.

******* Jets man. Wilkerson and Richardson are insane.

Rex has plenty of flaws but he does one thing so well, the hardest thing in my opinion for an NFL head coach:

Motivate his players. There are hundreds of Xs and Os guys who call plays and manage a game. But very few can get a group of men to run through a wall for them and play better than they are. That's what Rex does sometimes. Call it overachieving, call it whatever. That's a HUGE part of winning in this league with this world class, diva athletes. Getting them motivated to play for the team. ******* awesome win last night.

If Geno Smith can limit mistakes and continue to get better, and they coach as well as they have so far, plus some timely big plays from Kerley, Winters and the OL gets better - it's already a very good group, perhaps Holmes comes back, maybe Goodson/Ivory make some runs, this defense is good enough to lead them to 10-6 with their fairly light schedule. 7-9, 8-8 is more likely, but the only great team left on their sked is New Orleans at home.
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Old 10-08-2013, 12:21 PM    (permalink
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edit: beat me to it.
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Poor Falcons.
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Old 10-08-2013, 12:35 PM    (permalink
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Keep your filthy hands off of Clowney.
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Old 10-08-2013, 12:39 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta is still a 8-8 team. Roddy's stock just went up in fantasy though. So did Harry Douglass' useless ass.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
Atlanta is still a 8-8 team. Roddy's stock just went up in fantasy though. So did Harry Douglass' useless ass.
more like a 4-12 team
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