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Old 10-07-2013, 02:23 PM    (permalink
DoughBoy
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Thumper got thumped.
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Old 10-07-2013, 02:23 PM    (permalink
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Did you actually read my last post?
Damn, JR killin you.
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Old 10-07-2013, 02:33 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, so I guess bringing up faulty stats (raw yardage) completely disowned by any serious NFL analyst means "killing" the argument. Uh huh.
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Old 10-07-2013, 03:03 PM    (permalink
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Okay, want to use pass offense and defense?

2012: Ravens 15th in pass offense NOPE
2011: Giants 5th in pass offense but 29th in pass defense NOPE
2010: Packers 5th in pass offense but New Orleans (also a top 10 passing offense) was better against the pass NOPE
2009: Saints 4th in pass offense but 26th in pass defense NOPE
2008: Steelers 17th in passing offense NOPE
2007: Giants 21st in passing offense NOPE
2006: Colts 1st in passing offense 2nd in pass defense DING DING DING
2005: Steelers 24th in pass offense NOPE
2004: Patriots 11th in pass offense NOPE
2003: Patriots 9th in passing offense but among top-ten passing offenses Tampa Bay, Indianaplois, New Orleans, and St. Louis had better pass defenses NOPE
2002: Buccaneers 15th in pass offense NOPE

So if you just use passing offense and defense, you get once in 11 years. I guess that is a bit better. You want to use scoring defense? Let's remove the none top-ten passing offenses since they already fail the test.

2011 Giants: 27th
2010 Packers: 2nd so they pass
2009 Saints: 20th
2006 Colts: 23rd
2003 Patriots: 1st so they pass

Okay, we are up to 2 out of 11. Still not what I would define as usually. Let's see where adjusted net yards per attempt:

2012: Ravens 14th NOPE
2011: Giants 4th in offense ANY/A but 17th in defensive ANY/A NOPE
2010: Packers 3rd in offense ANY/A and 1st in defensive ANY/A GOOD
2009: Saints 2nd in offense ANY/A and 8th in defensive ANY/A GOOD
2008: Steelers 19th NOPE
2007: Giants 22nd NOPE
2006: Colts 1st in offense ANY/A and 10th in defensive ANY/A. Chargers, Patriots, and Eagles better NOPE
2005: Steelers 7th in offense ANY/A and 5th in defensive ANY/A. Bengals and Panthers better NOPE
2004: Patriots 7th in offense ANY/A and 8th in defensive ANY/A. Steelers and Eagles better. NOPE
2003: Patriots 10th in offense ANY/A and 1st in defensive ANY/A GOOD
2002: Buccaneers 14th NOPE

So that makes 3 of 11. That is 27%. Is that usually? And don't come back with another argument. I used your chosen stats to prove you wrong. Now, I didn't use DVOA stats because I didn't feel like finding them. But if you want to find me a statistical analysis that shows a direct correlation between DVOA and winning that exceeds that of scoring defense, passing defense, total defense, and ANY/A, I'd be glad to do this little test with that statistic too.
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Old 10-07-2013, 03:18 PM    (permalink
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Damn, JR killin him.
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Old 10-07-2013, 04:59 PM    (permalink
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[IMG]http://[/IMG]
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Old 10-07-2013, 05:29 PM    (permalink
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He's dead Jr.
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Old 10-07-2013, 05:48 PM    (permalink
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Saints have the highest number of undrafted free agents on the roster (19/46, including 7 starters)

Seahawks and Patriots are the next highest. Interesting stuff.
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Old 10-07-2013, 06:36 PM    (permalink
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holy cow this thread's a bloodbath.

edit: just re-read. Can confirm: still murder. and empirical! so rare these days.

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Old 10-08-2013, 01:38 AM    (permalink
DoughBoy
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This is how I picture Thumper right now...

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Old 10-08-2013, 02:17 AM    (permalink
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Not enough tears.
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Old 10-08-2013, 02:52 AM    (permalink
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Not enough tears.
this enough?:
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Old 10-08-2013, 09:39 AM    (permalink
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I actually feel bad because I generally agree with Thump's basic opinion. In today's NFL, if you can pass with the best of them, you can be successful. But I wanted to prove him wrong because his Brandon Graham love is annoying and one of my biggest pet peeves is when people spout statistics or trends with no factual basis.

But maybe this could lead to a quality discussion about what it truly takes to win a Super Bowl. In my opinion, you must be at solid passing and winning the turnover battle. By that I mean top-10 in both. Using ANY/A and Turnover ratio, only Baltimore (14th in ANY/A & 8th in turnover ratio), 2008 Pittsburgh (19th & 10th), 2007 Giants (22nd & 26th), and Buccaneers (14th & 1st) fail.

Using those parameters you get 7 of 11. That is a lot closer to usually than 3 of 11.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 10-08-2013, 10:50 AM    (permalink
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If you expand it to all playoff teams, here are the numbers.

Since 2001, 65 teams have finished in the top-ten in both ANY/A and Turnover ratio. 55 (84.6%) made the playoffs compared to just 10 who did not. Also, 13 of the 22 (59.1%) of the Super Bowl teams were in this group.

So in short, pass the ball and win the turnover battle. For this year, the teams fitting thie criteria (Indianapolis, Seattle, New Orlenas, Detroit, & Dallas) are a combined 18-7.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 10-08-2013, 12:13 PM    (permalink
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Okay, we are up to 2 out of 11. Still not what I would define as usually. Let's see where adjusted net yards per attempt:

2012: Ravens 14th NOPE
2011: Giants 4th in offense ANY/A but 17th in defensive ANY/A NOPE
2010: Packers 3rd in offense ANY/A and 1st in defensive ANY/A GOOD
2009: Saints 2nd in offense ANY/A and 8th in defensive ANY/A GOOD
2008: Steelers 19th NOPE
2007: Giants 22nd NOPE
2006: Colts 1st in offense ANY/A and 10th in defensive ANY/A. Chargers, Patriots, and Eagles better NOPE
2005: Steelers 7th in offense ANY/A and 5th in defensive ANY/A. Bengals and Panthers better NOPE
2004: Patriots 7th in offense ANY/A and 8th in defensive ANY/A. Steelers and Eagles better. NOPE
2003: Patriots 10th in offense ANY/A and 1st in defensive ANY/A GOOD
2002: Buccaneers 14th NOPE

So that makes 3 of 11. That is 27%. Is that usually? And don't come back with another argument. I used your chosen stats to prove you wrong. Now, I didn't use DVOA stats because I didn't feel like finding them. But if you want to find me a statistical analysis that shows a direct correlation between DVOA and winning that exceeds that of scoring defense, passing defense, total defense, and ANY/A, I'd be glad to do this little test with that statistic too.
I amend my initial statement to say that the team that usually wins the Super Bowl is the one that is most balanced in terms of ANYPA / DVOA in terms of passing or is exceptional with regard to one of those categories.

I.e. The team with a top-5 ANYPA on defense or offense that is at least passable in the other in terms of ANYPA ... OR the team with both a top-10 ANYPA on offense AND top-10 ANYPA on defense.

That would change the list to include:

2011: Giants 4th in offense ANY/A but 17th in defensive ANY/A GOOD
2010: Packers 3rd in offense ANY/A and 1st in defensive ANY/A GOOD
2009: Saints 2nd in offense ANY/A and 8th in defensive ANY/A GOOD
2008: Steelers 19th in offense ANY/A and 1st in defensive ANY/A GOOD
2006: Colts 1st in offense ANY/A and 10th in defensive ANY/A. GOOD
2005: Steelers 7th in offense ANY/A and 5th in defensive ANY/A. GOOD
2004: Patriots 7th in offense ANY/A and 8th in defensive ANY/A.GOOD
2003: Patriots 10th in offense ANY/A and 1st in defensive ANY/A GOOD
2002: Buccaneers 14th offense ANY/A and 1st in defensive ANY/AGOOD

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Old 10-08-2013, 12:26 PM    (permalink
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Just keep changing the parameters of the argument. Your point will eventually be right.

He still dead.
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Old 10-08-2013, 01:15 PM    (permalink
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That's a little better Thumper. Teams in the top-10 in both won 6 of 11 Super Bowls. Still not as good top-10 in offensive ANY/A and turnover ratio but close.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 10-08-2013, 01:17 PM    (permalink
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my thoughts

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Old 10-08-2013, 04:03 PM    (permalink
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I made a hasty comment that wasn't completely fleshed out, but the idea was on target.

Now that I tightened up the parameters it's pretty apt.

You have to be exceptional (i.e. top-4) in one or the other and not a liability in either (ANYPA on offense or defense) OR you have to be very good (i.e. top-10) in both.
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Old 10-08-2013, 06:00 PM    (permalink
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If you expand it to all playoff teams, here are the numbers.

Since 2001, 65 teams have finished in the top-ten in both ANY/A and Turnover ratio. 55 (84.6%) made the playoffs compared to just 10 who did not. Also, 13 of the 22 (59.1%) of the Super Bowl teams were in this group.

So in short, pass the ball and win the turnover battle. For this year, the teams fitting thie criteria (Indianapolis, Seattle, New Orlenas, Detroit, & Dallas) are a combined 18-7.
Just curious, who were those 10 teams?
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