Originally Posted by DeadEagle
So.... the question is really twofold. First.... who do we see shaking out as the first and second rounders of this group, and second.... how big a gap is there between the first round grades and the second round grades?
Teddy Bridgewater, UL
Tahj Boyd, Clem
Derek Carr, Fresno
David Fales, SDSU
Johnny Manziel, TAMU
AJ McCarron, Alabama
Zach Mettenberger, LSU
Stephen Morris, UM
Aaron Murray, UGA
Keith Price, UW
looks like a legitimate Top 10 prospect
to me. I can't see anything getting in the way of him being drafted in the top two or three picks. He should be an above average QB at the pro level. He's a very solid prospect. The one draw back I have: The game is a little too easy. Louisville is just too good of an offensive team with too much talent in comparison to the defenses they play. He did look great against Florida in the Bowl game last year. Solid physical tools: really accurate, only average arm strength, great poise in the pocket, very well coached, moves well in the pocket and he seems like he's very smart. Makes good decisions. Not much to not like about him. He's what is called a "clean" prospect.
has numerous flaws in his game. His pocket presence and feel for the game is terrible. He takes way too many sacks and never sees pressure coming. I also think his lack of height shows up on tape with how deep he sits in the pocket. He has a lot of arm talent, but I just don't see his game translating to the next level. His footwork is bad and leads to really bad ball placement or some bad throws. I don't think he handles pressure well at all, and he takes a beating with his running style. I think he's a career backup that shouldn't be touched before Round 4. I would be surprised to see him go before that. I think he's more of a 5th Round prospect
is not a Top 10 QB in this class. He's an UDFA
type. I can say that with confidence. And I've only watched one game of his games (Oregon last year). After the 1st QT I felt like I could do a complete scouting report on him. His poise in the pocket is utterly dreadful. He plays scared. He plays like he can't keep his eyes off the pass rush. If he can't get rid of the ball quickly or feels any bit of pressure, he's ready to lay down and curl up into the fetal position. His footwork is terrible. He has to throw off his back foot at least 50% of the time. His issues are psychological and they destroy any chance he might have had at success. I could talk about the few strengths he might have, but it's pointless because he's terrified to stand in the pocket and make a read, or go through progressions, which he absolutely does not do. He looks right, throws right. Throws into traffic, doesn't see guys dropping into zones, awful decisions, forced throws, terribly inaccurate... It's just awful. There's no reason for him to even be on this list. He has no future in the NFL. I know nothing about him other than his brother being a formed #1 draft pick. Which makes me think that is the only reason why people are talking about him. It happened to Jordan Palmer. Seems like a nearly identical case. Scouting him is a waste of time. Using a draft pick on him is a waste of a draft pick. He has no future at all. If he has a future in the NFL it's as a punter. This will be the first, only and last time I ever talk about Derek Carr.
I've already talked about Johnny Manziel
pretty in depth in the thread on this site about him. I think he's way too talented to fall out of the 1st Round. I'd be surprised if he fell out of the Top 15. Is he undersized? Yes. Does he have a strong arm? No, not really. And that is usually a recipe for disaster at the QB position, but my gut tells me that he's going to be a very good pro despite those concerns. He's been the best collage football player in the country for two straight years. He does things he won't be able to get away with at the next level, but I think a lot of NFL teams are going to be won over with his competitive nature, quick release, good accuracy and raw playmaking ability. There's enough reasons for him to be a second or third round pick, but in the end I think a few teams will see the reward potential. He's probably my favorite player in this draft. I recognize the bust potential, but I think he's the exception to the rule. If he was 6'3'' then he'd be the best player in this draft. My logic says he's bound to disappoint, but my gut tells me that he's a Top 10 prospect
. I'd take Bridgewater ahead of him. I see Manziel the same way I viewed Reggie Bush when he was a prospect. The flaws are glaring. They're obvious and they are detrimental at the next level for respective positions, but the wow factor pushes me over and forces me to downplay the negatives. Maybe - like Bush - I'm overrating his wow factor / playmaking ability.
is your typical third or fourth round prospect from the big, powerhouse school loaded with talent that lacks the physical tools or playmaking ability to set himself apart. He's a product of his environment. Game managers in college are bound to be no different in the pros. I'd think he'll be a career backup who you probably wouldn't mind starting in a pinch on a good offense. 4th Round prospect
to me, but I think he goes in Rounds 3 or 4.
should be a guy getting 1st round hype, but he won't go as high as his physical tools warrant. He's an underachiever who's wildly inconsistent. One minute he looks like a future star, then the next minute he's making dumb decisions and throwing interceptions that boggles the mind. He's at his best on play action. He has a good arm, but his accuracy is streaky. Some times he'll drop a pass in a bucket from about 60 yards, then the next throw will be 18 yards over a receivers head. He does an offensive line no favors by taking sacks and looking a little immobile in the pocket. I wouldn't touch him. I think most of his issues arise out of an inability to read defenses and go through progressions. He stares to one side of the field and doesn't look off defenders. He doesn't improvise and I don't think he gets more out of a play than what it's designed for. Throws into traffic constantly. Too many turnovers. I'd give him a 5th round grade
because he does have potential, but I have no idea where he's going to go. Probably anywhere between Rounds 3-6.
, from afar, looks like he should be a first round prospect. Great production, great college career and he orchestrates an impressive offense consistently hitting receivers at every level - short, intermediate and deep. But his physical tools are average. His arm strength is a problem and his ball seems to die deeper down field. He's also short, so he has that going against him. He is pretty accurate, seems like he has a high football IQ when identifying blitzers and finding hot routes. Good poise in the pocket. Solid decision maker who can lead an offense. I like him, but he's limited. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a better pro career than people expect. I like him. I think he'll be in the league for a long time. I'd give him a 3rd Round grade
... for now. If anything, he would rise up my draft board.
is very similar to Aaron Murray from a physical standpoint. Fales has average size and slightly-above-average arm strength, but I think he's one of the most naturally gifted throwers in this class. His ball placement and accuracy is simply incredible. I do think his biggest hurdle will be handling pressure in his face, so he might need to redshirt his rookie season, but I really like his potential as a mid round steal. Might be scheme specific. Probably the most underrated of this group.
I'll edit this to add Mettenberger later. Still not sure about him. He's all over the map.
Of those guys you listed, that's my opinion on the ones I've seen thus far. I feel fairly confident in most of those and I don't expect too much to change.
Here are my QB Rankings (just from the group above):
1. Teddy Bridgewater : LOUISVILLE
2. Johnny Manziel : TEXAS A&M
3. David Fales : SAN JOSE STATE
4. Aaron Murray : GEORGIA
5. AJ McCarron: ALABAMA
6. Stephen Morris: MIAMI (FL)
7. Tahj Boyd: CLEMSON
8. Derek Carr: FRESNO STATE
9. Keith Price: WASHINGTON