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Old 10-28-2013, 02:44 PM    (permalink
fredder
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Originally Posted by shylo3716 View Post
So you would rule out Mamba?
Are you asking if he will be drafted in the first round or if he deserves to be drafted in the first round?

I don't believe a player with his skill set is worth a first round pick. He's more of a complimentary piece to an offense and I think you want to get more from a first rounder.

The question of whether he'll go in the first is somewhat interesting. Historically guys like this have been taken in the middle to late rounds but last year we saw Tavon Austin go high in the first. I think Austin was a superior prospect but that pick implies that teams are starting to value these types of players higher. On the other hand teams may look at Austin's lack of impact this season and be hesitant to draft a similar prospect in the first.

Personally I think teams will go back to a more traditional view of this type of prospect and he'll go in the 2nd or 3rd but as always it only takes one team to fall in love and take him in the first.
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Old 10-29-2013, 10:22 AM    (permalink
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Love the 1st pick for my Brownies. Mosley and DQ would give us a nice tandem at ILB with hopefully Mosley becoming a feared LB for us. Would really round out our front 7 with a nice young group.

Honestly, I freaking hate the 2nd pick you gave us. Manziel, I don't want on my team. He's an outstanding college athlete, not a QB. Would be another waste of a 1st round QB pick for us. I'd rather go with Mettenberger who's shown QB potential in a Pro-Style offense under Cameron. Alot more QB upside with Zach than with Johnny. A lot less risk as well.

Add in Johnny's behavior, I'd hope he's seen as late round/UDFA prospect not a 1st rounder.

But as you said, "It only takes one team to fall in love with him", hopefully it's one of the other 31 teams not named Cleveland.
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Old 10-29-2013, 01:22 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by twiz View Post
Scott, I've been very adamant about this in the mock draft forum, and I'm going to continue to be here: the Browns will not draft Manziel. It would go completely against what they've been attempting to accomplish with trading Richardson and possibly Gordon, and that's avoiding poor attitudes. Manziel is the king of this with his off-the-field distractions and on-field taunts and trash talk. Plus, if you feel his attitude isn't a concern, he's also opposite of the type of QB that Chud and Turner typically look for. Big body, big arm, can stand in the pocket, Manziel is none of those. If they do decide to go the more mobile QB route, I'd expect Boyd to be their choice. But following history points to Mettenberger.

It's tough after the top 3 QB's because I think the Browns would have the choice of simply giving Hoyer another year. Yeah he's not an elite or even great QB, but he takes care of the ball and can lead an offense very efficiently, which in the draft would give the Browns the choice of waiting til after the first to take a wide variety of options from McCarron, Carr or Murray in the 2nd down to Price, Guiton or Lynch late, all with varying styles. I mean, Hoyer isn't in the mobile mold most seem to think the Browns want now, nor is he a big body, big arm QB these coaches have a history with, so you're really looking at just about any kind of QB here. But to sum up this rambling, I'd stick with history and expect Mettenberger with their second 1st round pick.

The Mosley pick I'm fine with. I've warmed up to taking an ILB in the first, though I feel taking a CB is more important, because of what two strong ILB's can offer in a 3-4.
Duely noted on Manziel and the Browns.

I actually wouldn't be shocked if the Browns didn't take a quarterback really early and stuck with Brian Hoyer, who Lombardi is a huge fan of. In the end I think they will indeed use a premium pick on a signal caller and definitely should, but it's at least something to keep an eye on. Especially if the Browns are too far down in the order to make a move up for Bridgewater / Mariota yet too early (Top 15-ish) to puller the trigger on a second tier quarterback.
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Old 10-29-2013, 01:25 PM    (permalink
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Scott,

Here are my thoughts about the Titans' pick...

Right now, you've got us at #11 and picking DT Louis Nix. While I like Nix as a player, I don't see us investing that high of a draft-pick at the DT spot when we've gotten good production there this year. You mention that we don't have a "true difference maker" at the position; however, Jurrell Casey has been just that this season -- consistently taking on double-teams and still managing to wreak havoc in the backfield. He's been truly great thus far this season against very tough competition. Furthermore, Antonio Johnson has played surprisingly very well; and Karl Klug and Mike Martin are good depth guys. Plus, Sammie Lee Hill has been injured for most of the season; but the FO seems to be intrigued with what he brings to the table, so he'll be given every chance to prove that he can play. (I believe that Klug & Johnson are FAs after this season; however, both should be relatively easy to re-sign.)

The bigger problem along the DL has been at DE -- where Kamerion Wimbley has been an absolute bust for us. He's had a very difficult time getting onto the field and, when he does, he's made little-to-no impact. In my opinion, there's no way that he's back next season at his price-tag. Derrick Morgan and Ropati Pitoitua have been very solid all year, and backup Lavar Edwards has shown some potential and gives us some DE/DT flexibility at his size. However, none of these guys look like a real "difference maker" in terms of pass-rush, which this team has struggled to consistently generate aside from blitzing its LBs (i.e. Akeem Ayers & Zach Brown). I'd love for us to bring back the core of Morgan/Pitoitua/Edwards next season, plus a rookie pass-rusher. If one's available in the first round, it wouldn't surprise me if the Titans went in that direction.

Some other positions to think about in the 1st Round...
1. CB -- Alterraun Verner has been a STUD during the first half of the season; and as a FA this offseason, he'll want and deserve a big payday. I'm not sure that the Titans will oblige with that payday, unfortunately, which means that we could be looking for a starter opposite Jason McCourty next season, as I'm not sure that Coty Sensabaugh and/or Tommie Campbell are anything more than depth guys.

2. Right OT -- David Stewart has been a great OT for the Titans for many years; however, he's clearly lost a step and now gets beat on a fairly regular basis. I think he's a FA after this season as well, and it wouldn't be a surprise if we parted ways with him -- especially since this draft seems to have quite a few OTs worthy of first-round consideration.

(For what it's worth, I'd probably rank DE as our 3rd biggest need after CB and Right-OT -- though that would obviously change if we manage to re-sign Verner.)
I would have gone DE for the Titans and actually gave them Notre Dame's Stephon Tuitt in the last mock draft. However, in this scenario Tuitt was already gone and there is a huge drop-off after him. It will be interesting to see if another defensive end emerges or gets pushed up the board to fill that void because there will definitely be more than two teams in the Top 15-20 overall that need help at that premium position. Tuitt may very well get pushed up as well.
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Old 10-29-2013, 01:30 PM    (permalink
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Tuitt to ATL is where he belongs.
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Old 10-29-2013, 06:20 PM    (permalink
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Once you have the Rams drafting in a more realistic spot with their own pick (top 5 instead of 15th), Jake Mathews and Louis Nix should be their picks.

Long - Brockers - Nix - Quinn

The fearsome 4-some would be reincarnated.
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Old 10-30-2013, 01:31 AM    (permalink
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Duely noted on Manziel and the Browns.

I actually wouldn't be shocked if the Browns didn't take a quarterback really early and stuck with Brian Hoyer, who Lombardi is a huge fan of. In the end I think they will indeed use a premium pick on a signal caller and definitely should, but it's at least something to keep an eye on. Especially if the Browns are too far down in the order to make a move up for Bridgewater / Mariota yet too early (Top 15-ish) to puller the trigger on a second tier quarterback.
I'd like to get a vibe as to what the front office thinks of Hoyer moving forward, but it's not exactly like I've got connections. Outside of QB, this offense still needs a lot (starting RB, a second starting WR, another starting OG, and heck, probably another weapon as well), but Hoyer still managed to win even with what we have now. So, it could be good just to draft someone later on to learn behind him and Campbell. Tough to say at this point if they can't get to the top 3 QB's. I wouldn't be against it though.
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Old 10-30-2013, 08:50 AM    (permalink
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I don't follow much college ball but you definitely hit two needs for the Browns.
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Old 10-30-2013, 11:05 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by armageddon View Post
Once you have the Rams drafting in a more realistic spot with their own pick (top 5 instead of 15th), Jake Mathews and Louis Nix should be their picks.

Long - Brockers - Nix - Quinn

The fearsome 4-some would be reincarnated.
I'm going to say the D-line isn't the problem there and you don't need to be investing that many high picks in one area of your team.

They have to be looking at some WR help there. Their receivers are below mediocre.
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Old 10-30-2013, 11:33 AM    (permalink
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So basically a total differant player than Colt McCoy. If you think Manziel is a guy who can get you to the promised land then you take him just about wherever you're slotted and don't worry about overpaying for him.

I've been impressed with Manziel since the start of the season. He seems more mature and more accurate while still retaining his ability to extend plays. I don't believe he'll be running read option or exposing himself to a bunch of hits at the next level.
Pretty much. Both are very slight framed, and McCoy wasn't a guy who would run around as much as Manziel and he still got beat up.
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Old 10-30-2013, 02:09 PM    (permalink
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I'm going to say the D-line isn't the problem there and you don't need to be investing that many high picks in one area of your team.

They have to be looking at some WR help there. Their receivers are below mediocre.


Point taken. But, with Nix, you can release Langford and save 4 mill of cap space and improve by a large margin. The d-line would be unstoppable and could take over games. I still think the WR's and TE Cook have big upside. If they can improve the o-line with Mathews and a free agent OG, plus get the running game going with Stacy, it should improve the passing game too. Bradford was playing great with the exception of the 49er game. That's why I think Mathews/Lewan and Nix would be 2 great picks in rd 1. You could also argue that CB is a huge need too because Finny has sucked so bad. Could use a stud CB opposite of Jenkins and release Finny and his 15 mill per yr salary.
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Old 10-30-2013, 06:35 PM    (permalink
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Scott, I've been very adamant about this in the mock draft forum, and I'm going to continue to be here: the Browns will not draft Manziel. It would go completely against what they've been attempting to accomplish with trading Richardson and possibly Gordon, and that's avoiding poor attitudes. Manziel is the king of this with his off-the-field distractions and on-field taunts and trash talk. Plus, if you feel his attitude isn't a concern, he's also opposite of the type of QB that Chud and Turner typically look for. Big body, big arm, can stand in the pocket, Manziel is none of those. If they do decide to go the more mobile QB route, I'd expect Boyd to be their choice. But following history points to Mettenberger.

It's tough after the top 3 QB's because I think the Browns would have the choice of simply giving Hoyer another year. Yeah he's not an elite or even great QB, but he takes care of the ball and can lead an offense very efficiently, which in the draft would give the Browns the choice of waiting til after the first to take a wide variety of options from McCarron, Carr or Murray in the 2nd down to Price, Guiton or Lynch late, all with varying styles. I mean, Hoyer isn't in the mobile mold most seem to think the Browns want now, nor is he a big body, big arm QB these coaches have a history with, so you're really looking at just about any kind of QB here. But to sum up this rambling, I'd stick with history and expect Mettenberger with their second 1st round pick.

The Mosley pick I'm fine with. I've warmed up to taking an ILB in the first, though I feel taking a CB is more important, because of what two strong ILB's can offer in a 3-4.
I think trading TR had more to do with the evaluation of his talent than his attitude. I'd say that angle is overblown. And Gordon's situation has everything to do with a suspension hanging over him. Yes, that's his attitude in a way, but I wouldn't say Gordon is a cancer or problem, attitude wise. In fact, he's shown some leadership qualities this year.

Manziel has shown himself to be an attention ***** but his leadership and locker room attitude is reportedly very good. I'd wager he does very well in team interviews.

Chud is known for forming offenses around the talent. I'm not sure I'd say he needs a particular type of QB. Cam has a cannon but Rivers doesn't. Brees didn't. Hoyer doesn't. Campbell doesn't. And, though I'm tiring of saying it, Manziel's arm is better than most give him credit for. I think because so many of his throws are off balance and from odd angles it doesn't always looks as good as it is. Mettenberger's connection to Norv thru Cam Cameron is interesting, but, if anything I'd bet they're going to put more stock in an athletic QB than another guy that can't create out of the pocket.

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Duely noted on Manziel and the Browns.

I actually wouldn't be shocked if the Browns didn't take a quarterback really early and stuck with Brian Hoyer, who Lombardi is a huge fan of. In the end I think they will indeed use a premium pick on a signal caller and definitely should, but it's at least something to keep an eye on. Especially if the Browns are too far down in the order to make a move up for Bridgewater / Mariota yet too early (Top 15-ish) to puller the trigger on a second tier quarterback.
Disagree with my fellow Browns fans on Manziel to the Browns. I took a closer look at his last game vs Vandy where he stayed mostly in the pocket trying to protect his sore shoulder...and he showed good arm strength and accuracy from the pocket. Imo, it's a more glimpse of what he'll be like as a pro then the free wheeling toss it up for grabs guy you normally see. I don't think he'll have much of a problem adapting his style. He does that at A&M because he can.
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Old 10-31-2013, 01:09 AM    (permalink
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I think trading TR had more to do with the evaluation of his talent than his attitude. I'd say that angle is overblown. And Gordon's situation has everything to do with a suspension hanging over him. Yes, that's his attitude in a way, but I wouldn't say Gordon is a cancer or problem, attitude wise. In fact, he's shown some leadership qualities this year.

Manziel has shown himself to be an attention ***** but his leadership and locker room attitude is reportedly very good. I'd wager he does very well in team interviews.

Chud is known for forming offenses around the talent. I'm not sure I'd say he needs a particular type of QB. Cam has a cannon but Rivers doesn't. Brees didn't. Hoyer doesn't. Campbell doesn't. And, though I'm tiring of saying it, Manziel's arm is better than most give him credit for. I think because so many of his throws are off balance and from odd angles it doesn't always looks as good as it is. Mettenberger's connection to Norv thru Cam Cameron is interesting, but, if anything I'd bet they're going to put more stock in an athletic QB than another guy that can't create out of the pocket.
I want to comment on this paragraph in particular. You're pretty much outlining what I summarized in my original post: just about every type of QB is being discussed as a Browns candidate. Your mobile QB's, strong-arm QB's, game managers, at this point it looks like anyone and everyone could end up in Cleveland. What I'm saying is, looking at trends, these coaches seem to prefer strong, big QB's. It's not about how far they can throw it, it's about how much zip they can put on a pass. Many QB's can chuck it 40 yards, but how quick it gets there is what varies. If we're picking between accuracy, strength and mobility, I think it's strength that wins out in Cleveland. But again, pretty much every QB is getting mocked to this town, so who knows.

Also with Trent, his attitude problems have been discussed since he first went to Bama, so I don't believe that's overblown at all. Yes, on-the-field, he hasn't been close to being a first round pick, but I think it's ultimately the locker room stuff that caused them to shop him. Though when you're offered a first round pick for a guy that's under performed and you don't see as part of your future, you're taking that, so I don't think we'll know the true answer anytime soon.

Manziel I'm sick of discussing so I'm just leaving that part alone for now.
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Old 11-01-2013, 11:12 PM    (permalink
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I really like Green Bay's pick. The Packers love TE's and I think it would be a great safety net considering Finley's uncertain medical future.
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Old 11-02-2013, 01:01 PM    (permalink
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I think you're spot on with Miami's pick of Antonio Richardson. Just makes a ton of sense. Still glad the Dolphins drafted Jordan last year, but the team needs to re-make the offensive line.

Stephen Tuitt is a low first, early 2nd in my opinion.
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Old 11-03-2013, 12:05 PM    (permalink
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The more i see of Jace Amaro the more i'm liking that pick to New England. Amaro at 6-5 and 260lbs is going to be a total mismatch for lbs in the speed department and safeties in the size department. Great insurance for an always day to day Rob Gronkowski if nothing else.
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Old 11-03-2013, 01:50 PM    (permalink
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Scott, I don't see how you (or anyone else for that matter) can compare Clowney with Peppers or Williams. Their production in college puts him to shame, even with their "inconsistent and underachieving" final season.

Don't make me bring statistics into it
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Old 11-03-2013, 02:02 PM    (permalink
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I'd say that they are probably the closest comparison physically. They are 4-3 ends with freak athleticism. Not being combative, but could you bring the stats in? I'm actually interested. Clowney is a force when I watch and teams obviously adjust their offense to him
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Old 11-03-2013, 02:12 PM    (permalink
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I'd say that they are probably the closest comparison physically. They are 4-3 ends with freak athleticism. Not being combative, but could you bring the stats in? I'm actually interested. Clowney is a force when I watch and teams obviously adjust their offense to him
It's difficult to find Peppers' stats, but here are his final college year stats:
63 tackles, 19 tfl, 9.5 sacks, 3 int, 9 PD

Williams' stats:
FR - 46 tackles, 10.5 tfl, 5 sacks, 6 PD, 4 QBH, 1 FR, 2 FF
SO - 40 tackles, 16 tfl, 7 sacks, 7 PD, 1 QBH
JR - 62 tackles, 24.5 tfl, 14.5 sacks, 2 PD, 15 QBH, 1 FR, 1 FF

Clowney's stats:
FR - 36 tackles, 12 tfl, 8 sacks, 1 PD, 6 QBH, 5 FF
SO - 54 tackles, 23.5 tfl, 13 sacks, 2 PD, 5 QBH, 3 FF, 1 FR
JR - 27 tackles, 6.5 tfl, 2 sacks, 2 PD, 7 QBH, 1 FF (so far)

If you take his JR stats and say he plays in 14 games then this would be his stat line if he kept up the same pace of production:
42 tackles, 10 tfl, 3 sacks, 3 PD, 11 QBH, 2 FF

Clowney is listed at 6'6" 274 (team site). Peppers was listed at 6'7" 283 (combine). Williams was listed at 6'7" 295 (combine). I will say that I watched Peppers and Williams MUCH more than I've watched Clowney. But the times I did watch him, he just did not seem to be the athlete that Peppers and Williams were/are. I'm just not sure it's fair to Clowney to put those types of expectations on him when he hasn't shown that he can produce at the level of those two guys, even if they were "inconsistent and underachieving". If that is inconsistent and underachieving, then what is Clowney? Non-existent and incredibly lazy?
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Old 11-03-2013, 11:35 PM    (permalink
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Glad to see you have Sammy Watkins climbing in your mock. I think he is arguably the most talented player in the entire class. I'm confident he will end up in the top five selections with a team possibly trading up to get him. The guy simply cannot be covered one on one and will demand a double team at the next level.
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Old 11-03-2013, 11:47 PM    (permalink
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Love the 1st pick for my Brownies. Mosley and DQ would give us a nice tandem at ILB with hopefully Mosley becoming a feared LB for us. Would really round out our front 7 with a nice young group.

Honestly, I freaking hate the 2nd pick you gave us. Manziel, I don't want on my team. He's an outstanding college athlete, not a QB. Would be another waste of a 1st round QB pick for us. I'd rather go with Mettenberger who's shown QB potential in a Pro-Style offense under Cameron. Alot more QB upside with Zach than with Johnny. A lot less risk as well.

Add in Johnny's behavior, I'd hope he's seen as late round/UDFA prospect not a 1st rounder.

But as you said, "It only takes one team to fall in love with him", hopefully it's one of the other 31 teams not named Cleveland.
Manziel is going 1st round, like it or not. Late round/UDFA? Your out of your mind. He may not go to the Browns but he will go first round and likely top 10.
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Old 11-04-2013, 12:42 AM    (permalink
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It's difficult to find Peppers' stats, but here are his final college year stats:
63 tackles, 19 tfl, 9.5 sacks, 3 int, 9 PD

Williams' stats:
FR - 46 tackles, 10.5 tfl, 5 sacks, 6 PD, 4 QBH, 1 FR, 2 FF
SO - 40 tackles, 16 tfl, 7 sacks, 7 PD, 1 QBH
JR - 62 tackles, 24.5 tfl, 14.5 sacks, 2 PD, 15 QBH, 1 FR, 1 FF

Clowney's stats:
FR - 36 tackles, 12 tfl, 8 sacks, 1 PD, 6 QBH, 5 FF
SO - 54 tackles, 23.5 tfl, 13 sacks, 2 PD, 5 QBH, 3 FF, 1 FR
JR - 27 tackles, 6.5 tfl, 2 sacks, 2 PD, 7 QBH, 1 FF (so far)

If you take his JR stats and say he plays in 14 games then this would be his stat line if he kept up the same pace of production:
42 tackles, 10 tfl, 3 sacks, 3 PD, 11 QBH, 2 FF

Clowney is listed at 6'6" 274 (team site). Peppers was listed at 6'7" 283 (combine). Williams was listed at 6'7" 295 (combine). I will say that I watched Peppers and Williams MUCH more than I've watched Clowney. But the times I did watch him, he just did not seem to be the athlete that Peppers and Williams were/are. I'm just not sure it's fair to Clowney to put those types of expectations on him when he hasn't shown that he can produce at the level of those two guys, even if they were "inconsistent and underachieving". If that is inconsistent and underachieving, then what is Clowney? Non-existent and incredibly lazy?
This post does not make sense. You post his sophomore stats and yet say he hasn't shown the ability to produce on the level of Peppers/Williams. That year he out-produced Peppers' final year and was on par with Williams'. He also dominated as a pass rusher as a true freshman, playing on a stacked USCe DL.

On the field, he appears a much better athlete than Mario Williams. Much more fluid. Peppers had similar athleticism at a greater size but his motor is/was also inconsistent.
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Old 11-04-2013, 12:59 AM    (permalink
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This post does not make sense. You post his sophomore stats and yet say he hasn't shown the ability to produce on the level of Peppers/Williams. That year he out-produced Peppers' final year and was on par with Williams'. He also dominated as a pass rusher as a true freshman, playing on a stacked USCe DL.

On the field, he appears a much better athlete than Mario Williams. Much more fluid. Peppers had similar athleticism at a greater size but his motor is/was also inconsistent.
At NC State, Super Mario was a great pass rusher and great against the run. Teams run straight at Clowney and are very successful. And as far as saying Clowney is a much better athlete? Mario plays OLB/DE at nearly 300 lbs. Dude is a freak in his own right.
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Old 11-04-2013, 01:12 PM    (permalink
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Manziel is going 1st round, like it or not. Late round/UDFA? Your out of your mind. He may not go to the Browns but he will go first round and likely top 10.
No doubt. Manziel has actually addressed whatever questions there were about him. He's been the team player, has played hurt, improved his velocity and his throwing motion.

As to where Johnny goes in the draft just check the standings at the end of the year and see where the Texans are picking.
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Old 11-05-2013, 12:42 PM    (permalink
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This post does not make sense. You post his sophomore stats and yet say he hasn't shown the ability to produce on the level of Peppers/Williams. That year he out-produced Peppers' final year and was on par with Williams'. He also dominated as a pass rusher as a true freshman, playing on a stacked USCe DL.

On the field, he appears a much better athlete than Mario Williams. Much more fluid. Peppers had similar athleticism at a greater size but his motor is/was also inconsistent.
I just posted all years I could find, but I take issue with people trying to equate Clowney's lack of production this year with some myth that Mario Williams and Julius Peppers did the same thing. When they obviously did nothing of the sort. It's more of an issue with the comparison than it is with Clowney's ability or projecting his impact in the NFL.
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