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Old 04-25-2014, 12:12 PM    (permalink
derza222
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I like your short list for the first round pick Yoto. Not fixated on Pryor like you are, I don't think they value safeties that much and he's not really an athletic freak. That said if the other three are gone I think he'd be a decent BPA type option. Fuller is my favorite corner for the Jets at this point, and in a perfect world they can land Beckham or Cooks in the first (at least in my opinion).

Second round I would be happy with Latimer if they can't land a WR in the first. Bryant I don't like quite as much for the Jets, but there is upside. Again basing off of the pre-draft visit list I'd also be pretty happy with Bucannon (assuming no Pryor, obviously) or Amaro. Roby if his OVI (laughable as it is like you pointed out) causes him to slip would work if they don't take a WR in the first as well.

Saw a recent post on TJB that pulled a rumor off of another website opining that the Jets really like Marqise Lee in the first round. I wouldn't be shocked, but would be somewhat disappointed. Not a huge fan. That said, the reasoning behind it was somewhat asinine: Jet and former USC WR Vidal Hazleton has been raving about him (he's no longer a Jet), Marty Mornhinweg envisions Lee as a a DeSean Jackson type (I don't think they're remotely close in athleticism or playing style), and Idzik views Lee as a value pick since he could have gone top 5 last year (same could have gone for Robert Woods last year and countless other players who have fallen off - not a value pick because you're coming off a disappointing season).
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Old 04-27-2014, 11:27 AM    (permalink
YotoJets007
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I excluded Lee because I think he would be gone by 18. However, I am not sure if it necessitates to trading up for him.
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Old 04-27-2014, 11:33 AM    (permalink
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If Jets don't draft any CB prior to 4th round then Shaquille Richardson should be the one. I believe Jets had talks with him back in the East-West week.
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Old 04-27-2014, 12:00 PM    (permalink
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Damn... Garrett Gilbert, Brock Jensen, Tom Savage and Keith Wenning likely become a draftable prospects. I guess Travis Partridge is my last hope for a grooming QB for the future on the taxi. lol.



Anyway, Brock Vereen's draft stock is rising so does it mean he helps himself out of Rex Ryan's way?

LJ McCray out of Catawba or Eric Pinkins out of San Diego State could be a new sleeper for Ryan. Are you down with it? I know I ain't. lol.
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Old 04-28-2014, 08:00 AM    (permalink
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Derza's work on what interest levels meant has me all worried haha. I do find it odd that at the positions we supposedly need the most help at, they've only brought in the top guys. Clearly you can't take them all, and you would think you would want to be investing that time with the guys you really don't know, like later round picks (which we have a few in there)... if they're actually being used. Though it's almost certain we'll have to grab at least one of the WRs or CBs, it seems like it's more of a smokescreen than anything. I do worry though because probably a third of that list I wouldn't draft. Almost everyone on there has either questions about athleticism, maturity, and/or production, so they might be using it as another microscope to pick the good apple from the bad ones.

After the first round, who are guys you would love if the Jets picked?
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Old 04-28-2014, 10:30 AM    (permalink
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It's very interesting, I think it's intended to make it difficult to read who exactly the Jets are interested in among that group. Let's say the Jets have no interest whatsoever in Justin Gilbert and Darqueze Dennard (guys I hope they don't draft). If I'm in Idzik's shoes, I have no issue burning a couple of pre-draft visits to make it difficult for teams to read who I'm interested in drafting. The corner I'm really interested in is Fuller, but teams can't tell that based on the pre-draft visits. So either they may guess wrong, or they avoid trading ahead of me to land a guy because they think he may slide through. Similar situation at receiver, maybe they really don't have any interest in Lee but again expressing that interest is important. All wishful thinking on my part. I will note that Milliner and Richardson both tested really well athletically last year - so hopefully that trend continues and we can avoid Dennard and Lee.

The other aspect of that is of course that the Jets really have sufficient depth at corner and receiver, it's the starting caliber talent that needs help. Receiver needs youth but corner should be alright on that end. So maybe past the third or fourth round they don't feel any corner they could draft can really beat out Walls for a starting spot. They're early round needs, but if Idzik's not going to reach early and the board falls a certain way there's probably more value in drafting a backup ILB who can start after Harris leaves next year than a 5th or 6th corner when they already have Milliner, Walls, Wilson, Patterson, Lankster, and physically talented guys they took a shot on like Patrick and Dowling. Frankly I'm cool with the corner group unless they want to reach on somebody.

As for guys after the first that's a pretty long list haha. I can stick to some potential day two guys I think would be interesting by position:

QB: None - there's a chunk of guys I'd like the Jets to take one of on day 3 but second or third round is too early for my taste.
RB: See QB
WR: Donte Moncrief, Jordan Matthews, Cody Latimer, Allen Robinson, Paul Richardson - That's not really in any particular order. Moncrief and Latimer I think have #1 potential, I actually probably prefer Latimer because I think he's got better hands but Moncrief intrigues me because he's such a freak. He's probably better off landing somewhere else. I'd surprised if Matthews isn't at least a solid #2 so that would be just fine with me. Robinson I think has nice attributes with his wiggle after the catch and ability to high point, think he'll be a quality NFL receiver. Young too. Richardson is really more of a third or fourth round guy but I like him as a field stretcher in this offense.
TE: Pretty much all of them - Amaro, Niklas, ASJ, and Fiedorowicz. I'd be cool with any of the first three in the second: Niklas has tons of upside, Amaro I see as a solid target and potentially a good blocker, ASJ has sticky hands and should at least be a monster red zone thread. Fiedorowicz I think can stretch the seam a bit and is a good blocker. Would love to come out of the draft with one of these four.
OL: Joel Bitonio, Morgan Moses - Both are first round possibilities so it'd be nice to land them where the Jets pick. Bitonio's just a versatile lineman who could potentially help in a lot of places (guard if the guys drafted last year fail, RT in place of Giacomini, LT in a few years to replace Brick) and I think he'll be good. Moses I would be intrigued by as a long term tackle option, maybe backup swing tackle and then RT for a few years and replacing Brick after that. I don't think Idzik makes a pick like that so early, but you never know.
DL: Would rather wait on this, depth and talent are both fine and there's really not much room to get guys in the mix.
OLB: Trent Murphy - He's the only one I think fits the prototype of what the Jets look for in an edge linebacker and could fill Pace's role down the road. Wouldn't mind Demarcus Lawrence in the second but I think that'd be more of an indictment of Coples than anything else.
ILB: See QB, RB. Christian Jones would be interesting in the third but I'd much rather wait.
CB: Keith McGill, Stanley Jean-Baptiste, Pierre Desir, Philip Gaines - I'd really rather get an upside guy in the 4th somewhere, but these big athletic corners are interesting. Would like somebody ideally with some ball skills who can make some plays across from Milliner, who I'm reasonably high on. The pickings are kind of bare after the first, but I don't really like the first round corners either haha.
S: Jimmie Ward, Deone Bucannon - Would be thrilled with either. Ward seems like he'd be an Idzik pick, it feels like we've wanted a safety like him for years but the FO always passes which makes it seem like those coverage guys aren't outstanding Ryan fits, he wants hitters. Bucannon would more fit that role but I think can cover some too, and I like guys who play well at bad schools. He's got some things that can get cleaned up but I think he'd be a weapon in the secondary.

If they're somehow able to start the draft with something along the lines of:
18. OBJ
49. Bucannon
80. Niklas
104. Desir

I'll be a pretty happy camper. Those guys aren't all my favorites at the position and I just picked Desir because he's a reasonable option to slip that far, but I think all fit in terms of scheme, what the Jets need skill-set wise at a given position, and the competition level they should bring in at that spot. I'm not totally sold on Beckham and he may very well be gone, but if they take him I assume McGaughey signed off on him so that would be good since he saw him daily. Adds explosivness, YAC, good complement to Decker, can play on specials. Love his skill set too, if he was two inches taller I think we'd be talking about a lock top ten pick. Bucannon I think is a great scheme fit and would really improve safety play - I'd feel reasonably good about a Bucannon-Allen safety duo and think those are the kind of guys Rex wants back there. Niklas is just such a high upside TE - think he's got the speed to stretch the seam, the size to be a red zone monster, and is already a great blocker. Those day 2 TE's with great physical attributes tend to be good investments. Think he fits the mold they're going to look for at TE and they can ease him in as a part of 12 packages with Cumberland. Might be long gone - I'm not sure he's there at 49 - but even Fiedorowicz would be cool at 80 although he'd be even better at 104. Really interested to see where the tight ends land given there's that huge drop off after Fiedorowicz, but I digress. And then Desir has upside, think he can excel in press, and a Desir-Walls camp competition for the starting corner spot across from Milliner would be really interesting. You could throw a number of corners in that same group though: either Gaines, McGill, Cockrell from Duke, SJB, Breeland...anyway this post is plenty long enough. I'm excited for next Thursday.
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Old 04-28-2014, 11:29 AM    (permalink
YotoJets007
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What is the definition of non local prospects for pre draft visits?

Outside of _______________
-A location of school a prospect attended to.
-A birthplace of a prospect.
-A location of a prospect growing up, perse state or local tax.


Back to draft prospects... Since MM wanted a blocking TE that can go downfield, I could go with Arthur Lynch or Crockett Gillmore or both as late rounders instead of wasting of high picks on any TEs. TE's production is simply basing on MM's schematic not TE's talent. Drafting TE that high and settling down with 750-850 receiving yards is a waste of high value.


I like too many prospects but I struggle with cutting down to 10-12 prospects for Jets. Instead, I simply want 2 WR, 2 TE, S, CB and OL for Jets.
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Old 04-29-2014, 04:18 PM    (permalink
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Complete list of Jets Visits & Workouts:

New York Jets


Offense:

Tahj Boyd, QB, Clemson (Private workout)

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Eastern Illinois (Visit)

Logan Thomas, QB, Virginia Tech(Visit)

Dri Archer, RB, Kent State (Visit)

Roderick McDowell, RB, Clemson (Private workout)

Quandon Christian, LB, Clemson (Private workout)

Brandon Ford, TE, Clemson (Private workout)

Carlton Koonce, RB, Fordham (Private workout)

Andre Williams, RB, Boston College (Visit)

Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech (Visit)

Odell Beckham, WR, LSU (Visit, Private Workout)

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State (Visit, Private workout)

John Brown, WR, Pittsburg State (Visit)

Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State (Visit)

Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M (Visit)

Jarvis Landry, WR, LSU (Visit)

Marqise Lee, WR, USC (Visit)

Paul Richardson, WR, Colorado (Visit)

Walter Powell, WR, Murray State (Visit)

C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Iowa (Visit)

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington (Visit)



Defense:

Terrence Fede, DL, Marist (Private workout)

Dillon Quinn, DL, Forham (Private workout)

Marcus Thompson, DL, Rutgers (Visit)

Demarcus Lawrence, LB, Boise State (Visit)

Larry Webster, LB, Bloomsburg (Visit)

Michael Sam, LB, Missouri (Visit)

Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State (Visit)

Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech (Visit)

Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State (Visit)

Dexter McDougle, CB, Maryland (Visit)

Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State (Visit) (Private workout)

Jason Verrett, CB, TCU (Visit)

Keith McGill, CB, Utah (Visit)

Deone Bucannon, S, Washington State (Visit)

HaHa Clinton-Dix ,S , Alabama (Visit)

Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville (Visit)

Dez Southward, S, Wisconsin (Private workout)
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Old 04-30-2014, 01:20 PM    (permalink
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Listening to the presser with Idzik, Bauer, and Bradway, I feel as though we're moving in the 1st. Whenever teams talk about how comfortable they'd be taking a handful of players where they currently stand, it would seem that they're going to be on the move. That would kind of lead me to believe they're moving down, but who knows. I definitely expect us to be moving up in the middle rounds though.
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Old 04-30-2014, 03:34 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thetedginnshow View Post
Listening to the presser with Idzik, Bauer, and Bradway, I feel as though we're moving in the 1st. Whenever teams talk about how comfortable they'd be taking a handful of players where they currently stand, it would seem that they're going to be on the move. That would kind of lead me to believe they're moving down, but who knows. I definitely expect us to be moving up in the middle rounds though.
I've got a super long post on the way with a half baked theory along those lines and a bunch of thoughts based on pre-draft visits and current roster construction. I have a bit more organizing to do on the way. And I'd kind of like to post before the presser, but I'll have to check that out too. Should be interesting.
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Old 04-30-2014, 05:36 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by thetedginnshow View Post
Listening to the presser with Idzik, Bauer, and Bradway, I feel as though we're moving in the 1st. Whenever teams talk about how comfortable they'd be taking a handful of players where they currently stand, it would seem that they're going to be on the move. That would kind of lead me to believe they're moving down, but who knows. I definitely expect us to be moving up in the middle rounds though.
an interesting point, this draft is deep at very Jet friendly positions - WR, CB, and the always Rex friendly pass rusher. If they're moving anywhere i think it's down.
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Old 04-30-2014, 10:19 PM    (permalink
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I was thinking earlier today, and let me preface this with the fact that last year Idzik showed absolutely zero propensity to move around in the draft so this is purely hypothetical. I just like reading into things a little bit too much. If we look at the 30 non-local pre-draft visits (borrowed from another site) the Jets have had we'll find a few things:

Quarterback: Jimmy Garoppolo (Eastern Illinois), Logan Thomas (Virginia Tech), Tom Savage (Pittsburgh).
Running Back: Dri Archer (Kent State)
Wide receiver: Odell Beckham Jr. (LSU), Kelvin Benjamin (Florida State), John Brown (Pittsburg State), Brandin Cooks (Oregon State), Mike Evans (Texas A&M), Jarvis Landry (LSU), Marqise Lee (USC), Walt Powell (Murray State), Paul Richardson (Colorado).
Tight end: Jace Amaro (Texas Tech), Eric Ebron (North Carolina), C.J. Fiedorowicz (Iowa), Troy Niklas (Notre Dame), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Washington).
Linebacker: Kevin Pierre-Louis (Boston College).
Cornerback: Darqueze Dennard (Michigan State), Kyle Fuller (Virginia Tech), Justin Gilbert (Oklahoma State), Dexter McDougle (Maryland), Keith McGill (Utah), Bradley Roby (Ohio State), Jason Verrett (TCU).
Outside linebacker/defensive end: Demarcus Lawrence (Boise State).
Safety: Deone Bucannon (Washington State), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (Alabama), Calvin Pryor (Louisville).

The quarterbacks are developmental types who could go anywhere from frankly the late first round to day 3. Last year we had guys like Ryan Nassib and Matt Barkley getting mocked in the first round and land in the fourth. These guys all feel like potential day 3 dice rolls if they slip - none should be starting as a rookie, all have some top notch physical attributes. Each appears to be a guy who you get into the program and see where things are in a year or two. Given the Jets don't have a definitive long-term starting quarterback but do have a franchise QB they like, this feels like exactly what they should be looking for in a QB. Makes perfect sense.

Archer is less a running back and more a really explosive offensive weapon. Offense could use some explosiveness. Again, makes sense - maybe late day 2 but likely a potential day 3 option.

Wide receiver things are kind of muddy. We've got a likely top 10 pick (Evans), three legitimate options at 18 (Beckham, Cooks, Lee - granted I don't like Lee), a late 1-2 guy in Benjamin (who frankly might be a flex TE option at his size), two day 2/early day 3 options who have completely different skill sets (Richardson, Landry), and two late round options again with different skill sets (Brown, Powell). Evans would almost certainly require a trade up - only person in this group of 30 we can say that for. Maybe due diligence, but it's interesting. The potential options at 18 make sense to me (hopefully Benjamin doesn't slip into that group), while the differing skill sets for the mid and late round options have me curious. Almost similar to TE - they brought in the top 5 TE's and pretty much the consensus top 5 WR's sans Watkins. Difference is the 5 TE's go a lot deeper than the WR's do.

Then at tight end it's literally the top 5 guys - options anywhere from the first round in a wide range to the third or early fourth round. Given I'd like to see them nag one of the five, this is nice to see. Also kind of muddies the waters as to which one they're targeting - if any. Also makes it seem like it's something they're likely looking to address in the first two days - with the lack of depth at the position I do think it's something they have to draft so they may have a late round guy or two in mind that they don't feel the need to bring in.

I'm going to throw both of the linebackers together. One's a potential coverage ILB with great tools who could make sense to develop behind Harris, and the other is a pass rusher. Both make sense conceptually as a developmental ILB would be ideal with all of the picks in this draft and the pass rush could use a little more juice. Lawrence would be a little more confusing with an early selection as he's not really a fit to take Pace's role long-term as far as I can tell and Coples is the pure pass rushing OLB. The front 7 is a little crowded so I think picking him in the first or second would be a bit of an indictment of Coples. That said it could also be a situation of a guy they think might be undervalued and can find room for, or it could be a smokescreen.

The corners are kind of a mash up of the WR's and TE's. They've got pretty much the consensus top 5 corners. Like TE and unlike WR there's no top 5 overall talent like Watkins. A top 5 corner might be there at 49, but likely this group lands somewhere in the mid first-early second range which is interesting. Almost indicates that corner is an option if they don't like the WR's sitting there at 18 and move down. Again makes it difficult to read which corner they like because that whole group was brought in. And somewhat like WR there's a day 2 guy (McGill) and a late round sleeper type (McDougle). My opinion of the corner class relative to the Jets' needs is that their sweet spot to draft someone is in the third or fourth round range - I doubt they share that, but still. Only one in there is McGill potentially and he could pretty easily go in the second and also might be a safety option. So my hope here is that this interest is a smokescreen, but we'll see. I have literally no basis for it other than my own opinions.

Then the safety group has the round one guys (Clinton-Dix, Pryor) and a day 2 likely round 2 guy in Bucannon. To me, Bucannon is the most likely safety for the Jets to draft. Great physical attributes, really productive in college - so he fits the Idzik mold from last draft. But he's also a scheme fit - can move a little bit and make some plays but is very willing to come up and support the run and hit guys. Could use some coaching, but I definitely see the fit there. Hoping the first round guys are a smokescreen or a trade down/worst case scenario at 18 option. The lack of interest in safeties from Ryan historically would back that up, but obviously Idzik comes from Seattle where Earl Thomas is huge. If they do go with a round one guy my guess is Pryor fits better schematically. That said neither really has eye popping physical tools, so I'm not sure they fit the round 1 profile (granted, small sample size) that Idzik has so far. Pryor was productive at least. But again this feels more like a smokescreen/worst case - I do buy Bucannon.


I think Idzik is an extremely methodical guy and I love how he's made it really difficult to read the team's round one and to an extent day two plans. There's a pretty neat fashion in which the pre-draft visit give off absolutely zero hints as to which receiver, corner, or tight end they like. I think including Ebron in the tight end mix is to add lack of clarity about round 1's position and make it seem like there are other options besides receiver and corner, and also make it unclear that they're looking to target a TE on day 2 (which would be my guess and hope). Recently there's a much better track record in terms of ROI from day 2 TE's than first round TE's, and I'm guessing that's not lost on Idzik. Combined with the fact that the meat of the TE class is in that round 2 range and I think that's a potential goal. And if it is, they've showed Amaro the most love but could really take any of those guy and it wouldn't be surprising which I like. Make it tough for other teams to read your intentions.

Anyway, after looking up and down the roster these are I think the needs at respective positions, where they might look to target a guy at that position, and how many at that position I'd guess they'll draft:

QB: Developmental guy with some upside, potential backup quarterback or guy capable of competing for the starting job in 2015 depending on how things go this season with Geno. Day three. I'd expect them to draft one, be very surprised if they draft more than one, and be somewhat surprise if they don't draft one.
RB: Pass catcher and explosiveness. Really if value is outstanding or there's a niche guy they think they can get touches, there's not a ton of room on the roster. Day three or not at all. I'd expect them to draft none, but wouldn't be at all surprised if they draft one. Would be surprised if they draft more than one, there's just not room.
FB: No real need, maybe late if they want to give up on Bohanan. Late day three or not at all. Would be surprised if they draft one.
TE: Two different ways this could go. Legitimate potential starting caliber option to at the very least compete with Cumberland would be one. That would be day 2, potentially early day 3 if someone slides - one of the class' top 5 TE's. Even if they're not able to nab one of those guys, the position lacks depth. So I think they need to draft someone regardless, I don't see Pantale starting and think Sudfeld could use some competition for the #2 job. Day two or early-mid day three. I would be shocked if they don't draft a tight end. Think it's nearly a lock they draft at least one, and wouldn't be at all surprised if they draft two and make Sudfeld compete for a roster spot.
WR: Obviously this is a weak spot on the roster. They really lack a legitimate starting option across from Decker. Depth at the position isn't bad with four guys I think are really likely to make the roster and a fifth I wouldn't feel bad about making the roster due to special teams impact (Decker, Kerley, Hill, Nelson, and Ford). Certainly a day one or day two need, early day three in the worst case. I would be extremely surprised if they don't draft a receiver and wouldn't be at all surprised if they draft two.
T: This is one that could go in any number of directions. They took Aboushi who they presumably like last year and kept a dice roll in Ijalana on the roster last season to protect him after grabbing him off of waivers (I believe). So they might be fine at this spot. But next year Brick could come off the books, and I think he's likely to in two years. Is this the year to draft his replacement? Maybe not, but I think it's possible late. Giacomini isn't definitely the long-term RT option either. Day three would be my guess, could be earlier, could be not at all. I would guess they draft one, but wouldn't be surprised if they don't. More than one wouldn't be a shock, but would definitely be surprising after last year.
G: They could draft a guard late for depth purposes, but my guess is that's all it would be. Winters will be starting for the next couple of years after coming on strong towards the end of the year and I'd guess they like Campbell a lot. Don't draft a guy in the 6th and change his position, then keep him on the roster for an entire season to be a long-term backup. Schlauderaff is a capable backup as well. Plus Ijalana and Aboushi have the ability to kick inside. This is a day three or not at all need in my opinion. Would guess they don't draft one, but wouldn't be terribly surprised if they do. More than one would be very surprising after drafting two last year and with the versatility of the tackles currently on the roster.
C: Think this is a very realistic possibility. I've been clamoring for a legitimate Mangold backup for years, and next season they'll save $7M on the cap if they cut him. Don't think that's necessarily likely, but Idzik liked drafting in advance on day 2 last year. I'd guess he brings in a contingency plan this year and again a legitimate backup option. Could threaten Schlauderaff's spot as well. Day three or not at all. My guess is they draft one, wouldn't be surprised if they don't, more than one would be pretty shocking.
DE: Not much of a need here. The three man rotatation of Wilkerson, Richardson, and Douzable was more than sufficient last year. Coples is more than capable of playing end and I think Ellis can do it successfully as well. They could draft a rotational guy if it's someone they really like, but my guess is with the strength of this position it's not worth the roster spot. Maybe they draft someone to stash on the practice squad. Day three option or not at all. I don't think they draft one but wouldn't be at all surprised if they do. More than one would be very surprising.
NT: Again, pretty much in good shape. Big Snacks was fantastic last season, Ellis is great when he gets on the field. Could see them signing a UDFA to develop, but a draft pick would be surprising - though it's not impossible. Less likely than DE though IMO. Day three or not at all. Would be surprised if they draft one, shocked if they draft more than one.
OLB: This has been a need for a while and still is IMO. To an extent what they do here hinges on the health of Antwan Barnes. If healthy, he should fill the role of third down pass rusher, but if not it's a very draftable position and could really get addressed anywhere from day two to day three. I also think a long-term successor for Calvin Pace could be drafted this season. A different skill set will be needed than a third down pass rusher - more discipline, length, bulk (or frame for growth), and ability to play in space. Again could be a day two to day three need, although if the right guy's there in the first I could see them pulling the trigger. Coples and Pace pretty much have the starting spots on lock and I think McIntyre makes the roster as well. Easily could draft none if Barnes is healthy and they don't see a guy to develop behind Pace they like, one if either of those is not the case, or two if neither of those is the case. Three would be reasonably shocking. Very interesting position - there's really at least three roles that they need filled for outside linebackers so calling it one "position" is kind of weak.
ILB: Demario Davis should be a starter for the forseeable future, but Davis Harris is a free agent after this coming season. Additionally, besides Nick Bellore there's not much depth at inside linebacker on the roster. This is likely a day three need to add depth and athleticism along with a potential successor for Harris, but I could see it sneaking into day two. I expect them to draft one, would be surpised if they don't address the position at all and also surprised if they draft two.
CB: Likely the position where my views do not match up with the front office. Dee Milliner is the long-term #1 corner, so that position is locked up and doesn't make it a first round need in my opinion. We're not certain who the #2 corner is this year - my guess is Darrin Walls is the #2 by default on the roster right now and I don't think that's horribly problematic as he's young and started some last year without really embarassing himself. Kyle Wilson and Dimitri Patterson are free agents after this season, so the slot is kind of a long-term question mark as well. Depth between Milliner, Walls, Wilson, Patterson, and sub-package and special teamer stud Ellis Lankster is pretty good. Long-shot but talented options in Johnny Patrick and Ras-I Dowling are on the back of the roster as well. To me the ideal scenario is drafting a guy in the third to fifth round, having a four way competition between Walls, Patterson, Wilson, and the rookie for the starting spot across from Milliner, and letting the rest of the pieces fall where they may. Not much of a need for six corners on the roster. That does ignore the long-term slot corner need though (where a guy like Jason Verrett who I previously ignored becomes more interesting in a trade down scenario or at 49 if he falls). To me it's a day two or early day three need, but I could easily see it addressed in the first because I may be the only person who has this opinion. The depth and lack of long-term roster security at the position is interesting to me though. I would be surprised if they don't draft a corner, but not really shocked. My perception of the group isn't as bad as what most see, the safety spot is more in need of an upgrade to me. Most likely I see them drafting one anywhere from the first to the fourth. I could see two as well, three seems like a stretch.
S: This is an interesting spot - two guys are likely to make the roster in Dawan Landry and Antonio Allen. Both started at points last year though Allen lost play time to Ed Reed. I personally would rather see Allen start long-term, but Landry seems extremely likely to start. Both players could be upgraded, but the safety position has been ignored for years. Two legitimate roster options exist behind them in sub-package safety Josh Bush and a member of last year's roster in Jaiquawn Jarrett. Could be anywhere from a day 1 to a day 3 need although I'm not especially fond of the consensus day 1 safeties. And I could see them doing anything from drafting two to leaving the status quo and drafting none. Best guess would be one.
K: Nick Folk basically has this on lock. Would be shocked if they draft a kicker.
P: Ryan Quigley is okay. Day three or not at all. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they draft a punter but would guess they don't.
LS: Nobody drafts long snappers and Tanner Purdum is plenty sufficient. Drafting a long snapper would be a massive upset.


After all of that, my silly hypothetical is that the Jets are in a position to consider a trade up for a wide receiver. To me, the pre-draft list is Idzik announcing his intentions to draft a corner or a wide receiver in the first round at 18 or after a trade down and draft a tight end on day 2, but trying to make it unclear who exactly the target is. Again I'm likely thinking too much into this, but that would be a great way to hide a trade up. And we never really hear about teams wanting to trade up until the last minute.

To me, wide receiver is far and away the biggest need on the Jets. They need to make sure their quarterback has weapons. Tight end is a big need but to me ideally not a round one position. I think the starting offensive line is on the roster right now - depth could be improved but that's a day three issue. Quarterback I think is a day three pick. Running back should be set. Defensive line is fine. Outside linebacker could be addressed early, but doesn't have to be. Inside linebacker is a depth/future issue like the offensive line. Safeties are pretty hidden in this scheme, and the corners aren't so bad. Even if they are, that's two positions besides WR that really make sense to draft early - maybe three if you include safety. Depth is a bigger option and they can improve that late and with the compensatory selections. So to me, the need is there and the flexibility is there also. On top of that, the Mike Evans visit is to me the fishiest of all of them. So that expresses a bit of an interest in moving up to me. Maybe not necessarily Evans either, Watkins would be an ideal fit across from Decker.

It's half baked and I'm sure full of flaws, but it makes some sense to me. Draft pick wise looking at the chart, 18 and 49 get the Jets a little above the 10th pick. Add in Tampa's 4th and it gets them to 8th overall comfortably. Make it the Jets' own third instead and they get to seventh overall. Add Tampa's 4th back and it's sixth. Add the Jets' own 4th and 5th and that's more than enough to get to five overall. And this is all on the chart, we've seen teams move down for less. But they've got a lot of ammunition to not only move up but do it without giving up future picks. And no matter what they're going to have four day three selections because the comp picks can't get moved. They could literally trade all of their moveable selections in the first 5 rounds, get to five overall, and draft as many guys as they did last year. And Oakland moved down for a ton less than the chart last year.


Trading down I can only see if they're going to move up again or move out of this draft. But I'm not sure what positions they move up again for, they've got a lot of ammo already to get guys on day two or early day three and a lot of their other needs are luxury/depth related. So there's only so much room to move up. And given how strong this draft is, do you really want to move out? Maybe for quality picks next year, but it is somewhat questionable.

Looking at the roster I see room for 8-13 guys to make the team approximately. A good chunk of those are going to come from the back end of what's currently on the roster, and UDFA's will make the team too. I think the sweet spot for appropriate number of players to draft without burning too many picks is 10 - then assume 8 make the roster. So if they do move down it'll be interesting to see if they waste a few selections or move out of the draft. Very curious to see how this goes.


Entirely off base of my whacky trade up for a receiver theory, I think a sleeper first round target (ideally in a trade down) is Cody Latimer. He's been getting a lot of steam recently, and this feels like an Idzik pick based on last year's selections moreso than a lot of first round guys who are discussed. Would fill a substantial need. Has quality height, weight, and speed for the position. Productive in college in a quality conference. Maybe not completely polished, but no obvious flaws in his game (not like he's got horrible hands for example). Seems kind of like Sheldon Richardson, but at receiver - not saying he'll be that good but all of the pieces appear to be in place. We know in Seattle they march to the beat of their own drummer on draft day and it's worked, wonder if Idzik does the same. Moncrief was my sleeper for a bit but with his hands and production issues I wasn't certain it made sense - Latimer fits the mod a little more.

Great to get my thoughts down, but that's enough draft rambling for tonight.
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Old 04-30-2014, 10:50 PM    (permalink
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Did the players they drafted last year all visit?

I don't think they are looking to trade up. I think they are DEFINITELY trying to trade down. I think in an ideal world they'd be able to move into the late 20s or even 30s, and add another 2nd.

In my mock, I have them trading down with the Texans (33) to get a QB. They'd get the first pick in the third, the first pick in the fourth, and a 2015 pick. This would give them:

No. 33: Allen Robinson
Their 2nd: Niklas or ASJ
No. 65: Terrance Brooks or S
Their 3rd: Corner like Desir or Gaines
No. 101: Archer
Their 4th: Developmental OLB
Tampa's 4th: double up on something

This team has too many needs to trade up. It's not awful to start Patterson/Walls or Allen and Landry, but they need better players to surround the dominant DL. Otherwise the defense is going to fall off.

I thought previously they'd look at a RB as high as the 2nd (Mason), but with how much they gave CJ and with their other needs, I could only see a pass catcher like you mentioned. Archer is still perfect.

I am 100% sure they will at some point draft a WR and TE.

Really don't have much more to add. Great post.

If they stay at 18 I think they'll consider Barr, Ha Ha, Cooks, Allen Robinson, Ebron, and all 5 top CBs (Verrett, Fuller, Gilbert, Roby, Dennard).
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Old 04-30-2014, 11:13 PM    (permalink
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Nice work! Unfortunately I can't rep you until I spread more love around.

One thing about WR is that even though the majority of the stars come from early round selections, especially in a class touted for its super deep receiving class, as long as we get a scheme and QB fit, we could very easily find a major contributor outside the 1st. I'd be interested in hearing who people like outside the 1st though at the position (on a related note, maybe I will post my position rankings tonight... if I can finish before passing out).

As for the Safety conundrum, I kind of think Rex doesn't know what he's doing with the position haha. In his tenure, he's made more bad decisions than good. He talks to his brother a lot, and after Rob had a guy like Vaccaro and saw huge benefits, maybe he really sold the idea to Rex. Who knows. However, I don't really see a S of that caliber in this class. I think he wants smarts and versatility, which I don't know if I see...
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:36 PM    (permalink
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Couple thoughts following up and in response to your guys' posts.

Not all of the players from last year visited. I was really more trying to interpret what the visits meant - but that's entirely guesswork. Last year Milliner and Geno were in for private visits along with Aboushi and Campbell.

I don't know if they have too many needs to trade up. What I was trying to get at before is I think it's pretty feasible for them to address the majority of their needs on day three. And in terms of roster spots, they don't have room to add twelve guys, let alone more. That's purely my take though.

The other thing on that end is, the Jets went 7-1 in games where they scored 20 or more points last year. The offense needs help. Decker, Johnson, and potentially Vick could all improve things in that direction. But I think the 2014 starters at all offensive spots besides WR, potentially TE, and maybe even RG are all on the roster right now. The big one is WR. Granted they could use upgrades in the secondary and developmental linebackers, but Idzik seems inclined to kind of roll the dice in the secondary and let Rex figure something out and the linebackers can get picked in the fourth or later without any issue - the main roles in the front 7 are more or less locked in pending Barnes' health. I don't think they need to trade up, but based on the way their needs line up I think they can get away with it.

That's just me though. And I can definitely see it the other way. My perception is partially due to the fact that I hope Idzik can be a bit of a poker player. Last year it was pretty obvious that Tavon Austin was the target at 9 and they got leapfrogged - hasn't worked out terribly, but I would prefer that's not a consistent thing. Maybe he's thinking one step ahead and making it unclear which particular player he likes, but I'd love to see him go two steps ahead and use the lack of clarity as a smokescreen.


On TTGS's post, I think Paul Richardson is one of my guys outside the first round. He fits what they need. Cody Latimer if he gets out of the first would be good. Donte Moncrief would be intriguing but a real roll of the dice. I'm starting to suspect maybe Brandin Cooks slips out of the first, he'd be a great fit IMO. Allen Robinson I like a lot. Jared Abbrederis would be nice but ideally as the second guy they bring in. Jordan Matthews I would be cool with since I think he'll be decent, but don't know if he really fits what they need.

Two follow up thoughts on positions that could be addressed more than I posted above. One is guard, where I'm not positive Willie Colon is a starter or that Campbell/Aboushi is ready to start. The other is a slot receiver. That's a position I had initially discounted because of Kerley, but he's a free agent this season. Given the need to improve the passing game anyway, if Kerley's not a long-term part of the team's plans then I could see them prioritizing adding a guy there. While I had originally figured Landry's not a great option for the Jets because I view him as a slot guy only, that's something I've definitely reconsidered.
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Old 05-02-2014, 08:08 AM    (permalink
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Had a dream last night that the Jets took Connor Shaw in the first round and some tiny WR from LSU no one had heard of in the second.

At least it should be better than that next week.
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Old 05-05-2014, 12:43 PM    (permalink
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3500 draft prospects? Ha!

Draft is consist of no more than 256 picks. A number of UDFA surprises may be good for up to 20, give or take. I can give him 350 draft prospects top.

10 player evaluations per prospect. That would be believable to me.



Anyway, I absolutely refuse to believe Jets will draft a quarterback. Idzik and Ryan made statements that Jets would move on with Smith and without Sanchez before Sanchez got hurt which knocked him out of last season.
Signing Vick to ensure the qb stability does not require drafting any quarterback that high. You don't draft a quarterback higher to be developed under questionable head coach capacity when you already have top 2 quarterbacks on the roster.


Whilst I like Idzik's cold approach philosophy, I like to see Jets to "overdraft" a prospect for a positional need. I can't stomach an idea of Jets taking QB Jimmy Garoppolo instead of WR Jarvis Landry in the 3rd round as BPA with Garoppolo being a ridiculous steal.


Regarding trade possibility, I would trade up for Sammy Watkins if he was available at 6th and Mike Evans at 11th. Or I would trade down from 18th to get extra high pick(s) so I could do the Tanny style trades with all picks after the final traded pick, minus compensatory picks. That would make about 5 strong tier prospects instead of 2 strongest tier prospects, 2 stronger tier prospects and 8 weak tier prospects. The latter part is unlikely to be happened since Idzik has much strong scouting skill than Tanny as Idzik could sit back and find several hidden gems for either impact on game or trade value.
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Old 05-05-2014, 12:44 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by derza222 View Post
Had a dream last night that the Jets took Connor Shaw in the first round and some tiny WR from LSU no one had heard of in the second.

At least it should be better than that next week.

At least Shaw brings his winning forte to us. Sound familiar? lol.
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Old 05-05-2014, 12:46 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thetedginnshow View Post
Nice work! Unfortunately I can't rep you until I spread more love around.

One thing about WR is that even though the majority of the stars come from early round selections, especially in a class touted for its super deep receiving class, as long as we get a scheme and QB fit, we could very easily find a major contributor outside the 1st. I'd be interested in hearing who people like outside the 1st though at the position (on a related note, maybe I will post my position rankings tonight... if I can finish before passing out).

As for the Safety conundrum, I kind of think Rex doesn't know what he's doing with the position haha. In his tenure, he's made more bad decisions than good. He talks to his brother a lot, and after Rob had a guy like Vaccaro and saw huge benefits, maybe he really sold the idea to Rex. Who knows. However, I don't really see a S of that caliber in this class. I think he wants smarts and versatility, which I don't know if I see...

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Old 05-05-2014, 12:52 PM    (permalink
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We have been hearing about how deep is WR class but I just wonder how long shall Idzik wait until he gets first WR basing on his draftboard?


Is Matt Hazel in 5th Round acceptable? I don't know but I would settle with Bennie Fowler in 6th.
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Old 05-05-2014, 03:21 PM    (permalink
YotoJets007
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Stanley Jean Baptiste has been hyped into 1st round consideration.

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Old 05-05-2014, 03:54 PM    (permalink
derza222
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As we're getting close to the draft, I think it would be good to consider alternative trains of thought. The last couple of years the Jets have surprised in the first round.

Two years ago a lot of people were potentially expecting an outside linebacker to improve the pass rush. Instead they took a pass rushing 3-4 end (who they later converted to outside linebacker anyway). Got to the same place, but not the expected way they did it. I think everyone also failed to take into account the importance of edge guys having length to Rex Ryan.

Then last year the expectation was that offense was going to be the key, but the way the board fell they went defense-defense. Even more surprising was the Sheldon Richardson pick, of course the thought that Coples would be playing outside linebacker wasn't very really there for most at that point.

Do you guys have any thoughts on how the Jets might try to address macro needs in a way that we're not interpreting?

Perfect example is the train of thought Evan Silva has thrown out there. The Jets need to improve on offense, we all know that. Most have interpreted the way to do that is adding weapons in the passing game. But they have directly stated they want to run the ball more, and the Chris Johnson signing was further proof of that. So perhaps they draft offensive line (he has them taking Su'a-Filo to improve at guard which is the only spot on the offensive line I could see them drafting early) and/or focus on tight end over wide receiver.

At first blush the concept of the Jets drafting Su'a-Filo is asinine. But we don't know how William Campbell and Oday Aboushi played in practice last year even if the Jets liked those guys enough to draft them. Willie Colon was solid, but could be upgraded and is coming off an injury. And if the Jets want to beat teams running the football while protecting an inexperienced (Geno) and/or turnover prone (Vick) quarterback, an offensive lineman is a means to getting to that goal. Rex wants to run the ball, Idzik comes from Seattle where they run. Maybe it happens. There's this kind of stuff maybe the team is thinking about that we aren't and then they do it and explain and even though we don't like the pick, there is logic behind it.

I don't mean to suggest that the Jets will or should draft a guard in the first round. There's obviously the flip side. Colon is likely better at guard than whoever the Jets would start at a number of positions. The Jets drafted a young quarterback they obviously like and it's going to be harder to tell if he's a legitimate long-term option if they don't surround him with legitimate weapons. I'd guess they like Campbell a lot as a potential starter and unless they plan on kicking Winters to RT in a few years or are able to draft a guy who can play tackle and guard there's no room for him for the foreseeable future. The run game and offensive line aren't that bad, and teams need to pass to win in this league. Mornhinweg is a pass first oriented coach too, and while they might want to get through this year running the ball a bit a long term goal of a more aggressive offense seems to fit the ideologies of both Mornhinweg and Ryan (assuming this coaching staff is in place for a while).

Part of it is due to perceived values too. Regardless, we tend to create a narrative and decide what makes sense, and sometimes in doing that we miss plans the team might have.

So, any thoughts on things the Jets might be looking to do than fans/mock drafters are overlooking? I could see pass rusher being a priority and the Jets taking a guy like Kony Ealy or Demarcus Lawrence if they plan on changing the role of the outside linebacker spot Pace plays at or think either of those guys can fill that role or are actually fed up with Coples and don't like him long term. A way to improve the pass defense but not in the secondary. Trading up for a receiver if one slides I've mentioned before, there's the Silva theory above. Maybe a linebacker like Shazier who can play more coverage as an ILB and cutting Harris. Nothing I like, but things I can create a narrative that makes sense for. Anything else?
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Old 05-07-2014, 11:09 AM    (permalink
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Hey guys. I made a quick mock draft for the Jets. I guess you could call it my (somewhat realistic) dream draft. I'm hoping I get at least one pick correct.

Rd 1, Pick 18 (18) Calvin Pryor - S - Louisville
Safety has been an area of concern for years. Pryor and Antonio Allen have the potential to be a solid duo.

Rd 2, Pick 17 (49) Kyle Fuller - CB - Virginia Tech
I doubt he'll fall to us to here, but a man can dream. Jason Verrett is the more likely pick if we go with a CB in round 2, but I'm real high on Fuller.

Rd 3, Pick 16 (80) Allen Robinson - WR - Penn State
This is certainly a biased pick, but I think Robinson has the potential to become a solid #2 receiver.

Rd 4, Pick 4 (104) C.J. Fiedorowicz - TE - Iowa
He's a big, balanced tight end with solid hands. Geno/Vick will benefit from a big security blanket.

Rd 4, Pick 15 (115) Ryan Groy - G - Wisconsin
He seems to be every Jets bloggers' favorite mid-round offensive lineman prospect. I'll trust them with this pick.

Rd 4, Pick 37 (137) Trevor Reilly - OLB - Utah
He's definitely a developmental project, but he's one of my favorite mid-round prospects. Let him learn from Pace and Rex.

Rd 5, Pick 14 (154) Richard Rodgers - TE - Cal
He's another developmental project. Tight end was a serious weakness for us. He has the talent to become a solid NFL tight end.

Rd 6, Pick 19 (195) Aaron Murray - QB - Georgia
Every fan in the league wants their team to take a shot at him late in the draft. With 4 6th round picks, why not?

Rd 6, Pick 33 (209) John Brown - WR - Pittsburg State (Div II)
He's been essentially labeled as the poor man's Cooks. The Jets have met with him 3 times this spring. I could see him beating out Jacoby Ford for a roster spot.

Rd 6, Pick 34 (210) Justin Britt - OT - Mizzou
He was an effective left tackle in college. We all know that D'Brick may have lost a step.

Rd 6, Pick 37 (213) Henry Josey - RB - Mizzou
He's undersized, but extremely talented. Potential seems to top out as a change-of-pace back.

Rd 7, Pick 18 (233) Michael Sam - DE/OLB - Mizzou
Like my Aaron Murray pick, why not? His college production and motor overshadow the off-the-field stuff in my mind.
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Old 05-07-2014, 11:56 AM    (permalink
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Man if Fuller and Robinson fell that far that would be awesome. Looks real good!
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Old 05-08-2014, 08:23 AM    (permalink
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So in the last couple of days:

Evans, Cooks, and Lee have all expressed interest in playing for the Jets. Cooks said they might have to trade up to get him. Surprising that wide receivers are actually interested in playing for the Jets.

I still think Evans is the reason they had discussions about getting into the top 10 - maybe with Minnesota if he falls to that spot, just to see what it would take. Makes more sense than moving up for Beckham since, as Mayock said, there's not really that wide of a spread between Beckham and Cooks. Why give up picks to secure the first guy in a tier when the second might fall to you?

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix also said he'd like to play for the Jets. In another article, Justin Gilbert said the Jets told him that if he was there they'd pick him, which was interesting. Not sure I like making a promise like that. Gilbert certainly has upside and they are used to working with corners who don't like to tackle though. They probably think they can work with his skill set. Also interesting that Ebron hasn't had any talks with the Jets.

The other Rappaport tidbit I didn't completely buy into besides the move up into the top 10 for Beckham thing was that they're keeping tabs on the top quarterbacks. Would be pretty shocking if they went QB at 18.

Would love it if pre-draft visits were a little misdirection and Idzik has something up his sleeve. If he's a methodical GM who's got some poker player in him, this franchise will be in good shape.
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