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Old 09-17-2014, 09:14 PM    (permalink
sbh15
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by popular request in the fantasy football thread...

I guess I'll start off with a question. who are your NFL plays this weekend? your strategy at each position? I'm also curious how much research you guys put into your teams. In my experience the more I pick off of instinct, the better I do.

with my QB's I usually will have an entry with a high-tier guy, sometimes two of them depending on match-ups, and another with a low-tier player. this week I like Brees vs MIN ($9100 on FD). they need a win, they're playing their first home game (where they score loads of points), and the loss of Ingram could handicap their run game. I also would target Rams if you're looking for value. they're all relatively lowly priced but by all indications it should be a close game with a middling O/U.

another strategy I like is just stacking the highest O/U for the week. paid off for me with the ATL/NO game week one. generally when its over 50 there's shootout potential (see GB/DET this week). just make sure that if you're taking guys from the underdog that you think it will be a decently close game.

I could talk about this stuff for days. Hopefully this thread can turn into something similar to the fantasy football thread as far as advice/team-building goes. also hoping there's someone else who ventures outside of NFL here.
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Old 09-17-2014, 09:26 PM    (permalink
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Welp, I will start by saying I am in 2 money leagues.

One is $40 and the other is $100. I am 0-2 in both and had the 12th pick in both.

Um, I have seen better days, yet it is still early.
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Go Amare.

Orioles - Raiders - UNC - Nuggets/Wizards
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Old 09-18-2014, 06:55 AM    (permalink
abaddon41_80
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I like to grab lots of players from the highest O/U game, too. Quarterbacks are often undervalued in these games. Kirk Cousins is only $6800 on FanDuel right now, and Zach Ertx is only $5800. Saving money there allowed me to get both Megatron and Nelson in what should be another shootout.
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Old 09-18-2014, 08:13 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
I like to grab lots of players from the highest O/U game, too. Quarterbacks are often undervalued in these games. Kirk Cousins is only $6800 on FanDuel right now, and Zach Ertx is only $5800. Saving money there allowed me to get both Megatron and Nelson in what should be another shootout.
Nice duo

Ive played 50-50 so far this year and won most of them.

Recently i entered a qualifier (i use draftkings) and won over 900 people to get the high stakes entry to this weeks contest (about 3000 people for $75k)

I feel like you need your top players to play like top players and you have to cherry pick the matchups. The money is made where you have to go cheap, like I used the cowboys defense because it cost $2500 (cheapest) but i love the matchup against Austin Davis and the rams. They could range from an average score to a top 5 score even though overall they suck pretty hard.

I was completely locked in on Brees/Graham this week, just because i love the matchup and the saints finally playing at home. But it took me a while to figure out how to get calvin and julio in there, and by doing so Im hoping for a good debut for lance moore with the steelers as their #3 and im hoping ellingtons foot is hurting enough to get Stepfan taylor some carries to make him a viable flex option (still mulling Jacquizz).

It took me 3 tries to get my lineup where it is now but i love it as is.

For me to stand a chance here i need modest production from my bottom players (Moore, Taylor, Dallas), I need the raiders run defense to continue to be weak (ridley), and I need donald brown (thought he was a bargain at $3500) to get the bulk of carries. Then I need my top 4 (Brees, Calvin, Julio, Graham) to play like they are among the best at their positions...starts with Julio tonight (which i never love on a thursday, but the bucs pass D is pretty ******)
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Old 09-18-2014, 09:16 AM    (permalink
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I was able to get Julio as my flex, too. I am expecting him to go off tonight. 120+ yards and a touchdown, minimum. I have been tinkering with my lineups all morning and right now I have,

Cousins (@PHI) - $6800
Bradshaw (@JAX) - $5200
Miller (KC) - $6600
Megatron (GB) - $9000
Nelson (@DET) - $8600
Julion (TB) - $8500
Ertz (WAS) - $5800
Gould (@NYJ) - $4600
Ravens D (CLE) - $4900
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Old 09-18-2014, 09:29 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
I was able to get Julio as my flex, too. I am expecting him to go off tonight. 120+ yards and a touchdown, minimum. I have been tinkering with my lineups all morning and right now I have,

Cousins (@PHI) - $6800
Bradshaw (@JAX) - $5200
Miller (KC) - $6600
Megatron (GB) - $9000
Nelson (@DET) - $8600
Julion (TB) - $8500
Ertz (WAS) - $5800
Gould (@NYJ) - $4600
Ravens D (CLE) - $4900
fanduel is $60k?

You gotta be able to do better than miller for 6600
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Old 09-18-2014, 09:30 AM    (permalink
fenikz
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Should I drop someone for Delani Walker

WR L Fitzgerald, M Colston, K Wright, K Benjamin, T Smith, J Gordon

RB M Forte, M Ball, A Foster, B Tate, T West

TE J Cameron

RB RB WR WR WR TE FL Non-PPR
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Old 09-18-2014, 09:33 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by fenikz View Post
Should I drop someone for Delani Walker

WR L Fitzgerald, M Colston, K Wright, K Benjamin, T Smith, J Gordon

RB M Forte, M Ball, A Foster, B Tate, T West

TE J Cameron

RB RB WR WR WR TE FL Non-PPR
Wrong thread, but i dont see why you wouldnt drop torrey
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Old 09-18-2014, 03:18 PM    (permalink
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Lots of tinkering and I think I am finally happy with my lineups. I like to do two lineups. The first is RB/TE-strong and the second is WR-strong.

QB - Cousins
RB - Murray, Bernard
WR - Edelman, D-Jax, Quick
TE - Graham
K - Graham
D/ST - San Diego

QB - Stafford
RB - Rainey, Bradshaw
WR - Megatron, Jordy, Julio
TE - Kelce
K - Scobee
D/ST - New Orleans
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Old 09-18-2014, 03:21 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
Lots of tinkering and I think I am finally happy with my lineups. I like to do two lineups. The first is RB/TE-strong and the second is WR-strong.

QB - Cousins
RB - Murray, Bernard
WR - Edelman, D-Jax, Quick
TE - Graham
K - Graham
D/ST - San Diego

QB - Stafford
RB - Rainey, Bradshaw
WR - Megatron, Jordy, Julio
TE - Kelce
K - Scobee
D/ST - New Orleans
the tinkering is great....its like being a GM only not nearly as good
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Old 09-18-2014, 03:30 PM    (permalink
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first team I have for games starting sunday...

QB Brees vs MIN
RB Pierce @ CLE
RB Bradshaw @ JAC
WR Bryant @ STL
WR Marshall @ NYJ
WR Hawkins vs BAL
TE Graham vs MIN
K Graham vs MIN
D Texans @ NYG
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Old 09-19-2014, 08:04 AM    (permalink
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Juliiioooo
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Old 09-19-2014, 08:52 AM    (permalink
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I was so close to starting the Falcons defense. Oh well, at least Julio beasted and Rainey added some garbage-time stats.
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Old 09-19-2014, 09:28 AM    (permalink
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If Julio asked me to marry him I think I would say yes

Such a long shot to win this thing with 3000 entrants, but having the likely #1 WR for the week is a great start. 35% of the entrants had julio, 2% had atlantas D


Essentially making 3000 go to 1100
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Old 09-19-2014, 09:56 AM    (permalink
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Tinkered with my lineup...what do you guys think about Zach miller over Stepfan taylor for my $3000 flex?

Other notables:

Jarvis Landry
Andre Caldwell
Isaiah Crowell
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Old 09-19-2014, 11:18 AM    (permalink
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Best line-up I found on FanDuel:

QB Kirk Cousins ($6800)
RB - Bobby Rainey ($5700)
RB - Khiry Robinson ($4700)
WR - Calvin Johnson ($9000)
WR - Jordy Nelson ($8600)
WR - Julio Jones ($8500)
TE - Zach Ertz ($5800)
K - Stephen Gostkowski ($5500)
DEF - New England ($5400)

This is a tournament play for me. I was counting on Rainey doing more than he did (that TD he didn't get pissed me off), and well as Robinson getting another 12, or 15 points himself. Wanted the WRs to explode, Julio met my expectations, and I expect Gostkowski and NE to be solid.

For a 50/50 I'd play much more conservatively. Targeting 120 points (which I believe was the score that would get you in the winning 50% in like 80% of those leagues), that means each $1000 should get me 2 points. Current team would have to get me the following to justify their price:

QB Kirk Cousins ($6800) - 13.6
RB - Bobby Rainey ($5700) - 11.4 (10)
RB - Khiry Robinson ($4700) - 9.4
WR - Calvin Johnson ($9000) - 18.0
WR - Jordy Nelson ($8600) - 17.2
WR - Julio Jones ($8500) - 17.0 (32.6)
TE - Zach Ertz ($5800) - 11.6
K - Stephen Gostkowski ($5500) - 11.0
DEF - New England ($5400) - 10.8

Were it 50/50, you have to go for consistency and low variance. Antonio Brown, LeVeon Bell, Graham and Thomas at TE, etc.

I made a pretty sophisticated model last year for the NBA season, since the NFL is damn near impossible to model due to only having 16 games. It worked pretty well, but unfortunately I had tinkered around too much and lost most of what I had built up prior to making the model. Didn't recover much afterwards.
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Old 09-19-2014, 11:31 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sbh15 View Post
by popular request in the fantasy football thread...

I guess I'll start off with a question. who are your NFL plays this weekend? your strategy at each position? I'm also curious how much research you guys put into your teams. In my experience the more I pick off of instinct, the better I do.

with my QB's I usually will have an entry with a high-tier guy, sometimes two of them depending on match-ups, and another with a low-tier player. this week I like Brees vs MIN ($9100 on FD). they need a win, they're playing their first home game (where they score loads of points), and the loss of Ingram could handicap their run game. I also would target Rams if you're looking for value. they're all relatively lowly priced but by all indications it should be a close game with a middling O/U.

another strategy I like is just stacking the highest O/U for the week. paid off for me with the ATL/NO game week one. generally when its over 50 there's shootout potential (see GB/DET this week). just make sure that if you're taking guys from the underdog that you think it will be a decently close game.

I could talk about this stuff for days. Hopefully this thread can turn into something similar to the fantasy football thread as far as advice/team-building goes. also hoping there's someone else who ventures outside of NFL here.
To me there are three important factors, and they're all pretty simple to see and figure out, but work well enough for 50/50s.

Home / Away / Thursday Night
I like to play guys at home, they almost always play better, and fade Thursday Nights. I hate Thursday Night's. I chose Julio and Rainey this week due to Rainey's price, but it almost backfired. Thursday night AND away game was a bad combo. That last drive was where he got more than half of his points). Julio was a monster though. Every Thursday night, there's usually two or three guys who do well, and everybody else just absolutely sucks. It was Ryan and Julio this game, no one really in week 2, and Lynch and Cobb Week 1. Teams generally struggle a lot with the short weeks.

Usage Rates (Touches, Targets, RedZone, etc.)
I learned this by playing NBA extensively. It doesn't matter if the team is good or bad, as long as the usage rate will be high, the guy should get points. This is why I chose both Rainey and Julio. I thought Rainey would get a lot of looks, and when White was declared inactive Julio immediately jumped up in target. Add in the fact that Julio is a good redzone target, and it was a good situation for him, despite the Thursday night. When you're playing a low-cost player, it's important to focus on their roles. Reggie Bush, for example, is basically a no-play for me this entire year. Joique plays on 3rd downs and goal-line packages, so he's far more likely to get a rushing TD, and some catches.

Price vs. Required with Vegas odds
As I mentioned above, I see the price of a player and calculate what is needed to justify their price. If I want 120 points, it's 2 points for every $1000, if I want 130 points, it's 2.16 for every $1000, etc. Good matchup, playing at home, good usage rate (general or particular for a single game, ala Rainey, Khiry Robison, other guys filling in for injury), and high scoring vegas prediction are all great indicators of a player having a good game.

This is all pretty basic and rudimentary, and truth be told for NFL it might even be coincidence and not a direct result of these things. For NBA, it's much different.
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Old 09-19-2014, 12:09 PM    (permalink
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I'm a statistics major and I've found modeling the NFL to be useless. It's great for the MLB and NBA but it just doesn't work in football. There are too many variables in every play to create a decent statistical model.

In baseball, it is a closed system. You have the pitcher and the batter and then the batter and the fielder. The play of players outside of the system does not matter. It is kind of the same way in basketball. A player can do well regardless of what his teammates do.

Football is a completely different story. Individual performance in football is based too much on the 10 other guys on offense to create a statistical model for an individual player. The best you can do is watch trends, match-ups, usage rates, and history but it still doesn't mean anything because there are too many variables interacting.
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Old 09-19-2014, 12:14 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
I'm a statistics major and I've found modeling the NFL to be useless. It's great for the MLB and NBA but it just doesn't work in football. There are too many variables in every play to create a decent statistical model.

In baseball, it is a closed system. You have the pitcher and the batter and then the batter and the fielder. The play of players outside of the system does not matter. It is kind of the same way in basketball. A player can do well regardless of what his teammates do.

Football is a completely different story. Individual performance in football is based too much on the 10 other guys on offense to create a statistical model for an individual player. The best you can do is watch trends, match-ups, usage rates, and history but it still doesn't mean anything because there are too many variables interacting.
Exactly. I'm sure if you have both the technological resources, statistics, and mathematical and modelling skills (and of course money) you can make an accurate model, but it's unattainable for most people.
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Old 09-19-2014, 04:29 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
I'm a statistics major and I've found modeling the NFL to be useless. It's great for the MLB and NBA but it just doesn't work in football. There are too many variables in every play to create a decent statistical model.

In baseball, it is a closed system. You have the pitcher and the batter and then the batter and the fielder. The play of players outside of the system does not matter. It is kind of the same way in basketball. A player can do well regardless of what his teammates do.

Football is a completely different story. Individual performance in football is based too much on the 10 other guys on offense to create a statistical model for an individual player. The best you can do is watch trends, match-ups, usage rates, and history but it still doesn't mean anything because there are too many variables interacting.
I would be interested in what the NBA/MLB modeling looks like, if you don't mind sharing. I'm a stats minor but I want to pursue it in grad school and putting it toward fantasy is something that I've been fascinated by but haven't really been able to do
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Old 09-19-2014, 04:31 PM    (permalink
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Crowell or Stepfan Taylor? It stresses me out choosing
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Old 09-19-2014, 04:38 PM    (permalink
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Crowell or Stepfan Taylor? It stresses me out choosing
I think Stepfan is more likely to poach a TD since he'll be the primary guy around the goal line. I also don't particularly like Crowell's matchup as the Ravens' run D has been tough to this point.
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Old 09-20-2014, 12:46 PM    (permalink
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I would be interested in what the NBA/MLB modeling looks like, if you don't mind sharing. I'm a stats minor but I want to pursue it in grad school and putting it toward fantasy is something that I've been fascinated by but haven't really been able to do
I don't have my own statistical models for either league. I was just saying that it is possible because of the fact that they are both closed systems, at least more closed than the NFL. Simple regression models can be applied to the MLB or NBA. You'd need something like chaos theory to model the NFL.
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Old 09-20-2014, 01:49 PM    (permalink
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So what's the best way to start out on fanduel? 50/50's sound like a safe bet.
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Old 09-21-2014, 08:47 AM    (permalink
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The 50/50's are a good way to build up some cash. That is all I did for the first two weeks this year and I made decent profit.
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