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Old 09-05-2007, 04:05 PM    (permalink
robert_in_bigd
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Just can't post a point without throwing in a low blow...why? Honestly I'm at a loss. You proved where you got your numbers from....no way I could say anything degrading about it...numbers are set no changing them around. But yet you feel the need to just throw in a little derogatory blow at the end of it...
Yes it was a cheap shot. I was wrong. I am sorry.

Just hard to put up with all posters telling me I dunno what I am talking about.

Jeez mariez, just tell me you disagree, why and say "I see your point."
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Old 09-05-2007, 04:08 PM    (permalink
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With all due respect Thule, numbers are very important to use when trying value NFL currency called draft picks. The only way you do that is by having that type of chart and doing comprehensive statistical analysis. To say f* the numbers b/c you can't live on them is just plain wrong.

Now what you say about certain POSITIONS being high or lower bust probabilites REGARDLESS of where drafted is very true.

That is why many folks don't like DT and NT or Kickers in the 1st round.

Because they feel that one position, regardless of importance, is so variable they just as soon take a player more likely to hit.

So in that sense you are correct and it is a very well known observation, but the fact is we are comparing WR to WR. Not NT to WR in this discussion.

I assure you each team uses Position Weighting to supplement the Draft Value Chart but the basic numbers don't lie.

Game, set, match. Thanks for the workout.
Numbers don't lie? Point is you can have the biggest lock of all time. And he can bust for any number of reasons. There is no sure thing. Yes the higher you are drafted the better chance you have to succeed within reason. But nothing works just because the numbers say so.

I don't agree with that.

You can say Rice has a 4.22x better chance of succeeding than Stanback. But the only thing that backs that up is draft position and college production. Both things that only to be taken in merit.
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Old 09-05-2007, 04:12 PM    (permalink
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Yes it was a cheap shot. I was wrong. I am sorry.

Just hard to put up with all posters telling me I dunno what I am talking about.

Jeez mariez, just tell me you disagree, why and say "I see your point."
I don't think anyone would say your an unintellegent poster. And if so they are below you. But the thing is their are top tier posters around here. They prove their point back it up....and eat crow when they are wrong. No reason ever to lash out at any poster here. Just look at the Tnew saga there were a select few around here that would simply post why he was wrong using data and then leave it at that and ignore his ignorance. That is what would make you a respected poster which would in then turn the lesser posters off to telling you, you don't know what your talking about because there would be no top tier posters backing them.
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Old 09-05-2007, 04:17 PM    (permalink
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I don't think anyone would say your an unintellegent poster. And if so they are below you. But the thing is their are top tier posters around here. They prove their point back it up....and eat crow when they are wrong. No reason ever to lash out at any poster here. Just look at the Tnew saga there were a select few around here that would simply post why he was wrong using data and then leave it at that and ignore his ignorance. That is what would make you a respected poster which would in then turn the lesser posters off to telling you, you don't know what your talking about because there would be no top tier posters backing them.
Well, you are the guy telling me I am Madden all the time and comparing me to some dolt from the past.

Just don't think I am quite that idiotic number 1 and when speculating, number 2, I do differentiate between "I Hope/Wish/Think We Could" from "I Expect, Anticipate."

Just different words for different thoughts which I keep saying folks don't read very well here.
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Old 09-05-2007, 10:40 PM    (permalink
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Game, set match?????????????

I know you are about to blast my rep, but that seems silly to me.

Why do you feel that every time you answer someone, you are right?

I agree with you on several points you have made, but you act like every time you respond to someone, your response is the, "Be all, end all" to every arguement.

Everyone on the forum has an opinion. Even the "rookies" like me.

You have good points, but you sure do seem to be talking down to everyone.
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Old 09-06-2007, 10:33 AM    (permalink
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Game, set match?????????????

I know you are about to blast my rep, but that seems silly to me.

Why do you feel that every time you answer someone, you are right?

I agree with you on several points you have made, but you act like every time you respond to someone, your response is the, "Be all, end all" to every arguement.

Everyone on the forum has an opinion. Even the "rookies" like me.

You have good points, but you sure do seem to be talking down to everyone.

When merited, sure. Happens all the time in the real world. Ignored, talked down to, laughed at, mocked, insulted ...... Hey that is what you guys did to me!
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Old 09-06-2007, 12:14 PM    (permalink
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A countdown for benching Spears? Wow, that's surprising. Spears was my breakout player pick for the Cowboys this year, I thought/think he would excel in Phillips' one-gap 3-4. He looked so promising coming out of college.
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Old 09-06-2007, 04:13 PM    (permalink
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He was a beast in college, we even tried to trade up to get him, but he fell to us
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Old 09-06-2007, 05:01 PM    (permalink
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I'd much rather get back to discussing Spears. Now, as far as this countdown goes, I really still don't have the merit to dismiss him. I'd like to see how he plays when the real game is on, especially in this new system. The potential is there, and I thought we all knew that, but apparently we're forgetting. He can be an incredible player, people. Just wait for more evidence before you blow him off as a bust.
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Old 09-06-2007, 05:18 PM    (permalink
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I'd much rather get back to discussing Spears. Now, as far as this countdown goes, I really still don't have the merit to dismiss him. I'd like to see how he plays when the real game is on, especially in this new system. The potential is there, and I thought we all knew that, but apparently we're forgetting. He can be an incredible player, people. Just wait for more evidence before you blow him off as a bust.
Are we "discussing" Spears or "disgusting" Spears?
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Old 09-06-2007, 11:29 PM    (permalink
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I would say he HAD potential. I hope he proves me wrong, too...

Spears gets my vote for worst starter on this team, at their respective position.

I also had high hopes for him. But if I remember correctly, he played a lot lighter for most of his college career. One of my friends is a huge LSU fan, and warned me when we drafted him. He said Spears was awesome before he got fat. I have no idea if there is merit to the statement, but as of now, I am ready to take a shot at Hatcher.

And I agree with D-Unit. I think the frot seven is the key this year. Spears is not who I would want at DE. Not sure if the guy I want is on the roster, but I dont like Spears.
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Old 10-21-2007, 08:56 PM    (permalink
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For those of you waiting to see it...Hatcher is playing good since coming off his injury. From the DMN
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Outstanding October for Hatcher

Second-year DE Jason Hatcher was a playmaking machine this month.

Hatcher had a sack, a tackle for loss and two QB pressures against Buffalo. He had a tackle for loss and 27-yard fumble return for a TD against the Patriots. And his forced fumble was the biggest defensive play of today's game.

"Hey, I hope they keep rolling," said Hatcher, whose playing time has increased as he's made more plays.
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Old 10-21-2007, 09:37 PM    (permalink
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For those of you waiting to see it...Hatcher is playing good since coming off his injury. From the DMN
Been on this for some time. Good to see he is catching on and backing up my assertions of him as a player.

Now, Spears to NT..... with Johnson, Canty, Ratliff and Bowen ... we are pretty good if not big.
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Old 10-21-2007, 09:46 PM    (permalink
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Lets remember...Hatcher is from Grambling State...not exactly a top tier school facing top tier competition. He has been injured and I don't think you just throw him to the wolves. Ratliff has been playing a great nose this year....Spears is playing strong against the run so I think if anything just give Hatcher a couple extra snaps in the nickel...but thats not easy either when you have Ware/Ellis/Spencer on the DL.
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Old 10-22-2007, 10:40 AM    (permalink
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I have been high on Hatcher since TC of last year, and I think he has the highest upside of any one of our current DL. He can truly be a beast if he gets on the field enough, imo.

I don't know how many noticed it, but as he was coming back to the sideline after he forced the fumble on AD, he got a nasty look on his face and yelled "Put me in the f*cking game!!!!!"

That's the kind of attitude I wanna see from our DLinemen.
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Old 10-22-2007, 01:20 PM    (permalink
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I have been high on Hatcher since TC of last year, and I think he has the highest upside of any one of our current DL. He can truly be a beast if he gets on the field enough, imo.

I don't know how many noticed it, but as he was coming back to the sideline after he forced the fumble on AD, he got a nasty look on his face and yelled "Put me in the f*cking game!!!!!"

That's the kind of attitude I wanna see from our DLinemen.
I didn't see that. Wish I did. He definitely has the raw measurables to be the best of our DEs, but we've been saying that since the day he was drafted. Blame injuries, playing time or whatever... we need to see what he can do. We know Spears is just a one trick pony, who can only do a decent job against the run. I want a playmaker. Hatcher is starting to show that he can be that. We need to find out right away.
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Old 10-22-2007, 03:01 PM    (permalink
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Canty-Johnson-Hatcher with ratliff spelling all 3 positions would be great to see. I still think that Spears wont ever be "benched". At worst he remains the starter but is taken out of the game more frequently just like Julia Jones. While spears may be ok against the run, he cant rush for ****. And who is to say hatcher cant be just as good against the run while provided a solid pass rush at the same time.
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Old 10-22-2007, 04:07 PM    (permalink
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Canty-Johnson-Hatcher with ratliff spelling all 3 positions would be great to see. I still think that Spears wont ever be "benched". At worst he remains the starter but is taken out of the game more frequently just like Julia Jones. While spears may be ok against the run, he cant rush for ****. And who is to say hatcher cant be just as good against the run while provided a solid pass rush at the same time.
Play Hatcher, Burnett and Carpenter. You will see the difference. Worse run D but better pass D.

The big bucks spent on Bradie, Ayodele and Spears are the only thing holding this back IMHO.

Hard to cut / not play guys with an "Archuleta Deal."
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Old 10-23-2007, 08:42 PM    (permalink
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First off, Bradie, Ayodele and Spears all have very cap-friendly deals and are by no means playing simply because of the money they have.

Spears' deal is 30% less money than Carpenter AND he's a year farther along on the pro-rated signing bonus. The argument that Spears is playing because of the money he was paid is absolutely rediculous. Carpenter isn't playing and his money is significantly more.

Spears is actually playing quite well. In fact, he has more sacks and QB pressures than Luis Castillo (whom everyone raves about). The theory that he is playing poorly is a reflection of having a pre-conceived notion rather than actual analysis.

Neither Bradie James or Akin Ayodele have top 20 salaries for LB's in the NFL. Both of their contracts are very easily discarded. Both of them have less salary cap hit than Marco Rivera's salary and when he retired and accelerated his signing bonus no one flinched.

The only three players on the team with salaries so high that they MUST be played are TO, Flozell and Bigg.

The more people say 'he's only playing because of his salary' the more they appear ignorant of the facts.
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Old 10-23-2007, 10:06 PM    (permalink
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The only three players on the team with salaries so high that they MUST be played are TO, Flozell and Bigg.
I disagree with your premise based on facts. To me, the fact Jerry spent money on them means he wants to play. Cutting them is admitting he made a mistake -- and this makes him hurt a great deal. PLUS the "newer" the toys Jerry purchased and spent money on the more he wants them to play.

Quincy was the new thing before Hutch was the new new thing before Stoerner was the new new new thing before Henson was the new new new new thing before Bledose was the new new new new new thing before Romo is the newest thing. It took a Parcells to eliminate this thinking from the Jerry GM mindset.

It is normal for all bright people to introduce bias into analysis and decision making if it supports their earlier opinion.... we do so until the pain of being wrong / or pleasure of changing our opinion is so great that we change our mind .... Romo for example.

But that is not what is fascinating me...

Are you not the one who said eliminating Roy Williams was not practical b/c of the Cap Hit? Too big of a contract and signing bonus.... I think I need clarification on your point b/c I have a hard time reconciling the two.

Are you saying Roy is cutable? Please provide color ....... do you have ball park numbers??????

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Old 10-24-2007, 02:51 AM    (permalink
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I disagree with your premise based on facts. To me, the fact Jerry spent money on them means he wants to play. Cutting them is admitting he made a mistake -- and this makes him hurt a great deal. PLUS the "newer" the toys Jerry purchased and spent money on the more he wants them to play.
That's the problem with you. LSU stated facts, you are always trying to make your opinions look like facts. You're a Jerry "hater", that's pretty much a fact, you will probably won't never admit if he makes a good move. I remember you being all over him because he overpaid Big Davis, saying that he just brought a fat pos with no work ethic. Now Big Davis is one of the most dominant guard in the league.

Do you have any proof for saying that Jerry doesn't want his HC to bench some player because those are his "new toys" and he "can't admit that he make a mistake". No, you haven't.
Why are you so sure that is him that wants to play Akin, Roy and Spears (I guess those are the players you want to sit on the bench)?
Who should be thos players' replacement? Burnett, Watkins and Hatcher/Bowen.
Wade Phillips probably likes Burnett, Burnett plays in like 50% of our defensive snaps. But he probably look at his past story and see that he can't stay healthy. So don't you think that maybe he wants to play Ayodele because he wants to preserve Burnett? Don't you think that probably he's not so sure that he's ready to play as a full-time ILB? Don't you think that probably he wants to keep him fresh for the nickel-dime defense, in which Burnett is the most active player?
And abut Roy, do you really want to replace him with Watkins? I like Watkins as a part-time player, but really, I'm the only who remember how bad Watkins got torched several times last year? He was benched for freaking Keith Davis! And after all, Roy is still one of our best playmakers, and oe of the reason why opposite teams have so much difficult to break long run plays.
Last but not least, Spears. I love Hatcher, I think he's gonna be very very good, he's our best pass rusher out of the base formation. But look at his record, he got hurt too, recently. He missed most of the training camp, and you can't play at full-time starter a raw guy that have missed a long part of TC and training, especially considering that this year we run a new scheme, and learning it is the most important thing?
And by the way, Hatcher is playing a lot. Spears is starting, but Hatcher is rotating a lot with him. You have to consider that Spears doesn't play in our nickel or dime formation, and we use them in like 50% of the plays.
Probably Wade, a guy who has been around football for his entire life, knows that benching a guy like Spears could be an hard shot for him? He still wants to see what he has in Spears. Is the argument "who's starting" very important? I don't think it, because the guys are rotating a lot.
And after all this speculation, Wade maybe just thinks that he's better against the run, and so he wants him to play early in the games, when opposite teams are willing to run.

That's the problem, robert. For every thing there are a lot of explenations. You are so sure that yours is correct.
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Old 10-24-2007, 11:53 AM    (permalink
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Hi Modano,

Fact is Jerry only paid First Round money to 1 DE Draftee -- Spears. The others, in spite of being better than Spears, are all paid much much less.

The Spears alternative is a 3rd/7th/4th and FA. Cheaper players who are bettter at DE IMHO. Subject to debate I understand.

On the LBers .......

Fact is Jerry paid a bunch of LB like First Rounder Draftees -- so Bradie (4MM), Ayodele (3MM), Ellis (2.5MM++Rework Deal), Ware (2.6MM) and Spencer (1.8MM) to Carpenter (2.5MM).

So in fact, the starting LBers can not be anymore expensive. The 4 most expensive start.

Facts are just wrong. The most expensive players are starters in the front seven with the exception of Canty over Hatcher.

So .....................
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Old 10-25-2007, 04:24 AM    (permalink
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Im not ready to say starters are based on salary, but....

what other (logical) reason is there for Spears playing? Ok, he is good against the run (I think this is a tad over stated anyway. Ok against the run maybe, but not good compared to a pro bowl 3-4 defensive end.)

Im not trying to fan a fire on this topic. But why is he on the field? Compared to San Diego's or the Pat's DE's, he isn't good against the run. He is good against the run compared to Dallas DE's, but not compared to DE's that are really good against the run.

I vote for Hatcher starting, not that my vote counts!!
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Old 10-25-2007, 12:40 PM    (permalink
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LSU made the best point that this thread has seen. People are harping on Spears based upon a pre-conceived notion generated before the season. The fact that we have been a fairly dominant defense for much of the year, and that Spears has consistently made plays in the run game and held the point of attack means nothing to people, because their emotional investment has already moved on to the next "it" guy. They have no interest in waiting on Spears becoming the next Leonard Marshal anymore, so they have moved on to more hypothetical projections and futuristic psycho-babble. Spears is playing well. Our coach thinks so, our coaching staff thinks so, the numbers support the assertion, and our scouting staff thinks so.

Despite what some conspiracy theorists or self-proclaimed psychologists assert, our staff and management put the players on the field that they think give us the best chance to win. Its as simple as that.
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Old 10-25-2007, 01:58 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by DMWSackMachine View Post
LSU made the best point that this thread has seen. People are harping on Spears based upon a pre-conceived notion generated before the season. The fact that we have been a fairly dominant defense for much of the year, and that Spears has consistently made plays in the run game and held the point of attack means nothing to people, because their emotional investment has already moved on to the next "it" guy. They have no interest in waiting on Spears becoming the next Leonard Marshal anymore, so they have moved on to more hypothetical projections and futuristic psycho-babble. Spears is playing well. Our coach thinks so, our coaching staff thinks so, the numbers support the assertion, and our scouting staff thinks so.

Despite what some conspiracy theorists or self-proclaimed psychologists assert, our staff and management put the players on the field that they think give us the best chance to win. Its as simple as that.


Yeah but they better check with Robertforever to get the real answers.
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