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Dallas Cowboys Team Forum Discuss America's Team - How 'bout dem Cowboys!

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Old 10-11-2007, 11:16 PM    (permalink
pocketaces
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Default Wagering on the boys

For those who like to wager m&m's or anything of the sort, this is a writeup from a respected handicapper for what its worth....

3 Star Selection
***DALLAS 24 New England (-5.5) 21
01:15 PM Pacific, 14-Oct-07
It's not easy to go against a Patriots team that has won all 5 of
their games by 17 points or more and by an average of 36-13, but the
tougher a game is to bet the better that bet usually is. Actually,
betting Dallas isn't a hard decision to make, as the Cowboys are in a
great situation this week and there is plenty of line value on the
side of the Cowboys as well. Dallas was just as impressive as the
Patriots in the first 4 weeks of the season, winning those 4 games by
an average score of 38-18 before barely escaping with a win last week
in Buffalo. That game was not too surprising to me given that the
Cowboys were in a very negative letdown situation in that game. Now
the situation favors Dallas, as New England applies to a negative
56-125-2 ATS road favorite situation and a 71-155-4 ATS scheduling
angle while Dallas applies to a 211-112-16 ATS statistical indicator
and a 149-89-8 ATS statistical indicator (the record is 29-8-2 ATS
when those 2 statistical indicators apply to the same team). You also
shouldn't be afraid to play against a team that has been playing so
great in recent weeks, as teams that have won by more than 14 points
in each of the last 3 weeks are just 2-18-1 ATS when visiting a team
with a winning percentage of .500 or higher, including 1-8 ATS if the
hot road team is also unbeaten on the season. Aside from the strong
situation, my math model also favors Dallas to cover in this game. New
England has been very good offensively this season, but their 6.6
yards per play have come against 5 bad defensive teams that would
combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Dallas has a much better
offense, as the Cowboys have averaged 6.7 yppl against teams that
would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. New England's defense is 0.7
yppl better than average, so the Cowboys have a 0.7 yppl advantage
over the Pats' stop unit in this game. Dallas rates at 0.2 yppl better
than average defensively for the season, but they are considerably
better than that with star LB Greg Ellis back in the lineup after
missing the first 3 games. Ellis is as good as any defensive player in
the NFL and he showed his value last season when he was hurt in week
10. In 9 games with Ellis last season the Cowboys were 0.6 yppl better
than average, but they were 0.4 yppl worse than average in the 8 games
that Ellis missed. This season the differential between the 3 games
Ellis missed and the 2 games he has played has been similar as the
Cowboys' defense was 0.2 yppl worse than average in those first 3
games without Ellis while that unit has been 0.8 yppl better than
average the last 2 weeks with Ellis allowing 3.8 yppl to St. Louis
and Buffalo attacks that would combine to average 4.6 yppl against an
average defensive team. New England has a 2.2 points advantage in
special teams and a 1.8 points advantage in projected turnovers, but
my math model only favors the Patriots by 2 points in this game.
With strong situations and good line value, the Cowboys look like a
good play here. I'll take Dallas in a 3-Star Best Bet at +4 points or
more
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