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Old 04-15-2008, 04:03 PM    (permalink
bigbluedefense
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Default Interesting Stat

I was just thinking earlier about SB predictions, and I noticed that early predictions for the following SB almost always favor the Conference Championship teams. This year that would include the Giants, Packers, Patriots and Chargers.

A lot of us expect those teams (in particular the ones that lost the championship game) to "take the next step" and make it to the SB the following year. And rightfully so, afterall if all things are equal and they improve in the draft, why not right?

So I went back and looked at the Championship game teams, and what they did the following year. The results may surprise you.

2007: Bears/Saints and Colts/Pats
result: 2 teams made the playoffs the following year: Colts and Pats

2006: Steelers/Broncos and Seattle/Carolina
result: Only the Seahawks made the playoffs the following year

2005: Eagles/Falcons and NE/Pittsburgh
result: the Pats and Steelers made it to the playoffs the following year

If the past 3 years are any indication of the future, 2 teams will make the playoffs, and 2 wont.

So of those 4 teams, assuming that this stat holds true, which 2 teams do you see from this past Conference Championships making the playoffs? Why? Which won't and why?
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Old 04-15-2008, 04:06 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
I was just thinking earlier about SB predictions, and I noticed that early predictions for the following SB almost always favor the Conference Championship teams. This year that would include the Giants, Packers, Patriots and Chargers.

A lot of us expect those teams (in particular the ones that lost the championship game) to "take the next step" and make it to the SB the following year. And rightfully so, afterall if all things are equal and they improve in the draft, why not right?

So I went back and looked at the Championship game teams, and what they did the following year. The results may surprise you.

2007: Bears/Saints and Colts/Pats
result: 2 teams made the playoffs the following year: Colts and Pats

2006: Steelers/Broncos and Seattle/Carolina
result: Only the Seahawks made the playoffs the following year

2005: Eagles/Falcons and NE/Pittsburgh
result: the Pats and Steelers made it to the playoffs the following year

If the past 3 years are any indication of the future, 2 teams will make the playoffs, and 2 wont.

So of those 4 teams, assuming that this stat holds true, which 2 teams do you see from this past Conference Championships making the playoffs? Why? Which won't and why?
I think the Pats, Chargers, and Packers will all make the playoffs.
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Old 04-15-2008, 04:09 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by DragonFireKai View Post
I think the Pats, Chargers, and Packers will all make the playoffs.
3 of the 4 teams have question marks. The Packers have a new qb in what seems to be a division thats developing into a competitive one, the Giants play the NFC East and have to prove they werent a fluke, the Chargers qb is coming into the season recovering from an ACL injury. Even the Pats have issues in the secondary, although I think they have the least worries of the 4 teams.
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Old 04-15-2008, 04:10 PM    (permalink
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Giants and Chargers would be my choice, the AFC West is really weak and well SB Champs tend to make the playoffs (well the steelers didnt). I just hope the SB loser curse strikes again...
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Old 04-15-2008, 04:15 PM    (permalink
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I would have to say patriots(obviously) and the Chargers(good team pretty weak divison). I think the Giants will get in too but they have a rougher divison so they are less likely to make it than the Patriots or the Chargers. Green Bay has a big ? at QB so that seemingly would make them most likely of those 4 teams not to make it.
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Old 04-15-2008, 04:19 PM    (permalink
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If forced to chose I think both NFC teams are more likely to miss the playoffs if for no other reason that the Chargers and Patriots will be favored big time to win their divisions. I still think the Giants will make the playoffs though. The Packers I'm not so sure about.
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Old 04-15-2008, 04:20 PM    (permalink
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Interesting stat, but a bit worrying for me. I can't see the Chargers or Pats missing the playoffs. That would mean that the Packers would miss out and that could happen if Rodgers doesn't perform and the Giants as well, and their division is one of the toughest in football. Still it could be the year that the stat gets broken.
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Old 04-15-2008, 04:26 PM    (permalink
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The Pats and Chargers divisions just don't have much going on, so for that reason if no other I don't believe they'lll miss.
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Old 04-15-2008, 04:27 PM    (permalink
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It's certainly atleast a possibility with the Packers of course but even the Giants scare me as a team that could potentially falter in such a deep division.
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Old 04-15-2008, 04:38 PM    (permalink
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I can see the Giants or Packers or both not making it. It wouldnt shock me. Im not as sure about the Chargers as you guys are though. That ACL is risky business, Tomlinson is getting near that age, Norv Turner is still the HC, and well...the rest of the West can't be THAT bad can it?

The only team that i have as a lock right now is the Patriots.
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Old 04-15-2008, 04:58 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
I can see the Giants or Packers or both not making it. It wouldnt shock me. Im not as sure about the Chargers as you guys are though. That ACL is risky business, Tomlinson is getting near that age, Norv Turner is still the HC, and well...the rest of the West can't be THAT bad can it?

The only team that i have as a lock right now is the Patriots.
Who in the West is going to step it up though? Denver? Both of their lines have issues. KC needs a solution at QB and LT. The Raiders are probably still two more drafts away and they're complicating things by giving away huge contracts.

The Chargers don't have personnel issues, they just have health issues and from everything I've read Rivers will be fine by training camp.
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Old 04-15-2008, 05:00 PM    (permalink
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I think the Giants are a lock.

Reese has proven to be great in the draft, they only lost a few guys and might possibly lose Strahan.

The biggest thing for them is that Eli must have all the confidence in the world. New York loves him now, his teammates have his back. He should be very solid and I would expect a Pro Bowl year.

Giants, Pats, Chargers should all get in. I would say Greenbay would be most likely to fall off. Aaron Rodgers could suck.
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Old 04-15-2008, 05:03 PM    (permalink
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another thing to look at when finding teams to replace those who don't make it back from the championship games is to look at the teams picking top 5 in the draft.

seems like each year one of them turns it around and makes it. the bucs last year picked #4 overall and made it. the saints before that at #2 overall and before them, the jets when they took d'brickashaw.

from this year....i would say a healthy rams team would have the best shot honestly
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Old 04-15-2008, 05:11 PM    (permalink
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Patriots are the only division lock imo. Colts are a play off lock, but not even a division lock.

AFC West is almost a lock with the chargers, but you never know what the raiders are going to do now. Raiders have possibly the best CB tandem in the league, playing against 3 teams with young QB's (Croyle, Cutler, Rivers). Fargas showed last season he can run a little bit, and as much as I hate that J. Russel was the number 1 overall pick, I have no idea how well he'll do.

NFC has no locks in my opinion. Giants certainly are not a lock with how tough the NFC East is - Eagles / Cowboys / Redskins can all be great teams.
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Old 04-15-2008, 06:56 PM    (permalink
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Giants and Chargers make it. The pack's O takes a step backwards under Rodgers and the Pats get hit by injuries while the bills prey on an easy schedule. We're not even at the draft yet so wtf not!
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Old 04-15-2008, 06:59 PM    (permalink
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Although Norv Turner makes me think the Chargers start really slow or struggle once they hit the wall.
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Old 04-15-2008, 08:04 PM    (permalink
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Green Bay's deciding factor will be Aaron Rodgers
So long as he plays above average Green Bay should be in the playoffs
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Old 04-15-2008, 08:17 PM    (permalink
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Green Bay's deciding factor will be Aaron Rodgers
So long as he plays above average Green Bay should be in the playoffs
GB could probably squeeze by even if he played just below average =P
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Old 04-15-2008, 08:42 PM    (permalink
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I would have to say patriots(obviously) and the Chargers(good team pretty weak divison). I think the Giants will get in too but they have a rougher divison so they are less likely to make it than the Patriots or the Chargers. Green Bay has a big ? at QB so that seemingly would make them most likely of those 4 teams not to make it.
ya i couldnt agree more
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Old 04-15-2008, 08:57 PM    (permalink
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I only see the 2 AFC teams back 2 the playoffs
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Old 04-15-2008, 08:59 PM    (permalink
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Chargers and pats both have cake schedules. They're my picks.
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Old 04-15-2008, 09:47 PM    (permalink
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if the chargers and pats didnt have easy schedules, id say that no conference team would likely make it.

I think the giants scrape in another wild card playoff spot, pats will pretty much win their division, broncos may surprise the chargers but ultimately i think the chargers win their division, green bay finishes 3rd in their division.
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Old 04-16-2008, 12:27 AM    (permalink
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If Brett doesnt come back, the Vikes will probably win the North. And I dont really see the Pack making the wild card. The Chargers seem like they'll make it, but you never know. I'm thinkin the Giants dont make the playoffs this year. They barely did last year and the Cowboys are gonna get younger and more athletic with the draft and maybe Pacman, plus the Eagles, **** even the Redskins.

Yeah, No Packers and Giants this year.
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Old 04-16-2008, 12:35 AM    (permalink
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Pats and Chargers for me.

Packers new QB issues make it mcuh tougher, plus i'm still not sold on the Giants. I know that doesn't make sense since they won the SB and beat an undefeated team, but thats just me.....
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Old 04-16-2008, 09:01 AM    (permalink
DeathbyStat
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If i need to go with two to make the playoffs I'm going Chargers and Pats.

If not Chargers and Pats

I'll go Pats and Giants I don't feel the Pack will make the playoffs

On a side note I think Cleveland will be the trendy pick this year to at least make to the conference champioship.
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