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Old 10-26-2008, 10:20 PM    (permalink
Matthew Jones
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Default Statistics on offensive success vs. Patriots defensive line

So I was looking through Richard Seymour's stat log for week 8 vs. Orlando Pace (7 tackles, 3 pressures, 1 sack, 4 plays stuffed for no gain), and started to wonder just how dominant the Patriots' defensive line was as far as stopping the run. I decided to go through the play-by-play game logs for each week as published by NFL.com and recorded each rush towards either the left side (listed as ran left tackle or left guard), the middle (ran up middle), and the right (listed as ran right tackle or right guard).

I did not include toss plays because that's not really the defensive line's responsibility in a 3-4 defense. It's not that I didn't include it through selective omission - the numbers seemed to be pretty much a wash from what I saw - I just didn't think it was really relevant to the study. So without further ado, here are the statistics. I found it very interesting how little success teams had running - Ty Warren had a bit of trouble, but was still above average stopping the run, and Richard Seymour and Vince Wilfork really plugged lots of holes. Teams really avoid rushing on Seymour if possible, and the only rushing touchdowns against the Patriots on non-tosses were the two in the Dolphins game vs. the Wildcat offense. No one has scored on a dive against Vince Wilfork this season.

Week 1 vs. Chiefs

Left: 6, 4, 3, 3, 1, 5, 3
7 rushes, 25 yards
Middle: 2, 4, 2, 4, 2
5 rushes, 14 yards
Right: 7, 0, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 5, 0, 4, 0
11 rushes, 26 yards

Total: 23 rushes, 65 yards

Week 2 @ Jets

Left: 1, 2, -2
3 rushes, 1 yard
Middle: 2, 1, 0, 8
4 rushes, 11 yards
Right: 4, 6, 2, 1, 4, 16
6 carries, 33 yards

Total: 13 rushes, 45 yards

Week 3 vs. Dolphins

Left: 2, 15 (t), 2, 7, 4, 3, 1, 2, 9, 6, 1
11 rushes, 52 yards, touchdown
Middle: 4, 0, 5, -1, 4, 3, -1
7 rushes, 14 yards
Right: 2, 5, 2, 3, 2, 5 (t), 3, 22, 0, 4
10 rushes, 48 yards, touchdown

Total: 28 rushes, 114 yards, 2 touchdowns

Week 5 @ 49ers

Left: 2, 4, 3
3 rushes, 9 yards
Middle: 6, 2, 5, 8, 5
5 rushes, 26 yards
Right: 4, -1, 7
3 rushes, 10 yards

Total: 11 rushes, 45 yards

Week 6 @ Chargers

Left: 27, 1
2 rushes, 28 yards
Middle: 2, 2, 11, 3, 4, 3, -1, 2, 8, 4, 2, 1, 1, 3, 0, 2, 4, 2, 1
19 rushes, 54 yards
Right: -1
1 rush, -1 yards

Total: 22 rushes, 81 yards

Week 7 vs. Broncos

Left: 5, 3, 1, 2, 5, 8, -1
7 rushes, 23 yards
Middle: 9, 5, 6, 5
4 rushes, 25 yards
Right: 3, 4, 0, 2
4 rushes, 9 yards

Total: 15 rushes, 56 yards

Week 8 vs. Rams

Left: 0, 4, -2, 4, 0, 6, 0, 3, 0, 3, 17, -2
12 rushes, 33 yards
Middle: 4, 0, 12, 3, 4
5 rushes, 23 yards
Right: 5, 2, 1, 18, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 3
10 rushes, 39 yards

Total: 27 rushes, 95 yards

Overall

Left: 45 rushes, 171 yards, touchdown (3.8 ypc)
Middle: 49 rushes, 167 yards (3.4 ypc)
Right: 51 rushes, 209 yards, touchdown (4.1 ypc)
Total: 145 rushes, 547 yards, 2 touchdowns (3.8 ypc)
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Old 10-26-2008, 11:31 PM    (permalink
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Props on the research. Very intresting...They make every team look like their starting runningback is a healthy Reggie Bush.
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Old 10-27-2008, 04:19 AM    (permalink
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You could also factor in that their least effective game vs the run was against the Dolphins and the wildcat, which they would have had very little chance to study and prepare for. Nice work.
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Old 10-27-2008, 02:12 PM    (permalink
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Ive always said that NE has the best dline out of all the 3-4 teams.

NE has the best dline.

Pittsburgh has the best LB core.

Pittsburgh collectively has the best front 7 in football. But NE has the best 3-4 dline. With some more youth in that LB core, their defense will be back in no time. Theyre only a couple of pieces away from being a dominant front 7 again.
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Old 10-27-2008, 02:13 PM    (permalink
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too bad their secondary sucks bad
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Old 10-27-2008, 02:14 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by *** Ork Wang View Post
too bad their secondary sucks bad
they need a CB. theyve managed with a poor secondary b4. their lack of pressure from their front 7 is the real issue. they need youth at OLB. they need to bolster their pass rush.

1 rushbacker and 1 cb is all they need.
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Old 10-27-2008, 02:59 PM    (permalink
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Our DL is elite and it has been for some time. We still need one more young inside backer to play alongside Jerod Mayo (who is a stud) and one more rushbacker (depending upon the development of Crable, Woods, Redd, and Guyton). Adailus is solid on one side but Vrabel won't be around too much longer.

Our biggest issue is the holes in our secondary. Meriweather is looking good in his second year at SS but we could use a free safety. James Sanders has all the intangibles, I just don't know if he has the athletic ability to be a starting NFL DB. Sanders has the ability to play both safety spots and if we picked up a young FS Sanders would be a great depth guy. We need another corner badly, we picked up Terrance Wheatley and Jon Wilhite in the last draft but I think we need to go corner first round this year.

Jerod Mayo looks like he will be a great player but we need some of the other young LBs to step up as well (which I expect from Crable next year) and some more secondary help. Like BBD said, we are very close to having this defense be elite again.
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Old 10-27-2008, 03:04 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Vito View Post
Our DL is elite and it has been for some time. We still need one more young inside backer to play alongside Jerod Mayo (who is a stud) and one more rushbacker (depending upon the development of Crable, Woods, Redd, and Guyton). Adailus is solid on one side but Vrabel won't be around too much longer.

Our biggest issue is the holes in our secondary. Meriweather is looking good in his second year at SS but we could use a free safety. James Sanders has all the intangibles, I just don't know if he has the athletic ability to be a starting NFL DB. Sanders has the ability to play both safety spots and if we picked up a young FS Sanders would be a great depth guy. We need another corner badly, we picked up Terrance Wheatley and Jon Wilhite in the last draft but I think we need to go corner first round this year.

Jerod Mayo looks like he will be a great player but we need some of the other young LBs to step up as well (which I expect from Crable next year) and some more secondary help. If this happens our defense will be elite again in my opinion.
I think you can move Vrabel inside, draft a mid round ILB to develop slowly while Vrabel sticks around for a couple more years.

I think an impact pass rusher is what you need. Greg Hardy would remind me of Willie McGinnest in your 3-4, although Im not sure if thats his best fit. I was surprised you guys passed on Quentin Groves last year.

You guys also run a lot of 3 safety sets, with Harrison as sort of an XBacker. I wouldn't be surprised to see you guys go after a safety early. Its not Bellichick's mo to take a CB early, but who knows.
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Old 10-27-2008, 04:06 PM    (permalink
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I would be shocked to see the Pats take a 1st round CB this year. The 2 rookies at CB this year only get on the field due to injury or nickle/dime sets, and I'm not convinced that is b/c of skill. The D in general seems to be Bill's baby and is not necessarily rook friendly. The experienced guy (Hobbs, O'Neal) will get the nod over the newb. That being said - if either Wilhite or Wheatley were studs they would be playing, but I would expect after a full year & the camp & preseason of 09 one or both will earn more playing time.

I doubt moving Vrabel inside is a good option. Though I wouldn't be surprised to see less & less of Vrabel & Brew on the field at the same time, so he may get phased into a situational guy w/some work in the middle.

Overall it is only Brew & Vrabel that are old players. Now that Rodney is done, the next highest age is Seymour who just turned 29 this month. DBs (not named Deltha - but you have to assume he's a stop gap anyway) are young, several young LBs (listed by DonVito) and DLine basically in their prime.

Sure would be nice if we still had Samuel roaming back there . . . .
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Old 10-27-2008, 04:12 PM    (permalink
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Adalius Thomas is 31, so hes older than Seymour.
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Old 10-28-2008, 09:40 AM    (permalink
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^ Right. My bad. Somehow I forgot to mention him.


I'll have to neg rep myself. lol
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Old 10-28-2008, 09:43 AM    (permalink
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its so hard to predict what the Pats are gonna do with their draft. they really throw some curveballs at you.

must be frustrating as a pat fan and draft fan watching it unfold.
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Old 10-28-2008, 09:53 AM    (permalink
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did brady make the pats oline look better than it actually was? cassel has already taken 28 sacks.
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Old 10-28-2008, 10:06 AM    (permalink
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they should make Vrable their TE. He is invisible
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Old 10-28-2008, 10:12 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
its so hard to predict what the Pats are gonna do with their draft. they really throw some curveballs at you.

must be frustrating as a pat fan and draft fan watching it unfold.
It was the first year or two. But I was Homer-Hyped on my Michigan WR when it was a position of need and Evil Bill passed on David Terrell and took some bum named Seymour. ;)

Each year the guys the Pats pick might make you wince at the time, but they have missed on so few players that I gave up second guessing a long time ago.

Quote:
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did brady make the pats oline look better than it actually was? cassel has already taken 28 sacks.
The Pats O-line has looked terrible this year. Brady didn't make them look better, rather he suffered the same fate as Cassel. Blown assignments & heavy pressure the entire half-game he played against KC before he got broken.

Brady would have worked the pocket +/- thrown the ball away before taking a few of the sacks Cassel has taken, but not all of them. There have been quite a few completely missed assignments - blitzes or otherwise - that no QB could have avoided.
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Old 10-28-2008, 10:18 AM    (permalink
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It was the first year or two. But I was Homer-Hyped on my Michigan WR when it was a position of need and Evil Bill passed on David Terrell and took some bum named Seymour. ;)

Each year the guys the Pats pick might make you wince at the time, but they have missed on so few players that I gave up second guessing a long time ago.



The Pats O-line has looked terrible this year. Brady didn't make them look better, rather he suffered the same fate as Cassel. Blown assignments & heavy pressure the entire half-game he played against KC before he got broken.

Brady would have worked the pocket +/- thrown the ball away before taking a few of the sacks Cassel has taken, but not all of them. There have been quite a few completely missed assignments - blitzes or otherwise - that no QB could have avoided.
hard to tell, brady was on the field for 6 minutes.
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