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Old 07-08-2007, 11:35 PM    (permalink
simms2clayton
 
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Originally Posted by BigDawg819 View Post
Ok stop describing a hypothetical hand and READ THE HAND SUMMARY! Bloch made a BAD READ!
Just because your opponent doesn't have the exact two cards you put him on does not make it a bad read.

He didn't call this all in with AA, which would have been a bad read since so many more hands in the deck beat you. Only a flush beat Bloch, AND HE HAD A ******* REDRAW FOR THE FULL HOUSE OR QUADS!

Your analysis just shows you don't put in the time to study game thoery. Most poker players only look at the surface (the cards and actions...hence you saying "read the hand summary") rather than looking at all the possible hands he could have been up against, the mathematics, etc. etc. etc. Looking at the hypotheticals is part of game theory.

If you think game theory is pointless then read any book by David Skalansky, Super System 1/2, or talk to any CASH GAME poker pro (live or online, but better if you are talking to online players because they read betting patterns 100 times better than live players).
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Old 07-08-2007, 11:41 PM    (permalink
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Regardless of whether it was a bad read or not, it was a bad play. He should have bet the flop, you cannot give an opponant a free card on such a draw heavy board.
LOL, how is that a "draw heavy board"...just because there are 2 diamonds lol...so what you are saying is when up against ONLY ONE OPPONENT a board is only safe it is rainbow. The thing is, now matter what the flop is a possible straight can be made on the turn. Period. That is a very safe flop because the only stright that can be made on the turn is a gutshot.

If the flop came Kd,Jd,Ts, then I guarantee you Bloch would have bet with any queen being open ended.

I already provided legitamate game theory on why Bloch made the correct play.

The reason I said some outs could have been potential folded is because...some outs could have been folded. It must be accounted for in the back of your mind saying, "First this guy has to hit a killer turn to beat me, secondly, all these outs in the deck have to be there for him to have X% of hitting it, thirldy, I have a redraw just in case he hits the flush, fourthly, I already mentioned all the possible hands...but this guy could be especially excited for flopping a set of 9s, 3s, or turn a 2 outer (in his mind) to make a set of jacks. Bad players get really really excited when they flop a set, straight, flush, 2 pair, and check it down the river. Why isn't Bloch a bad player you ask? Well, I already provided information on the potential hands Bloch already has beat and he didn't want to run out so many possible hands of turning outs that he can get all in against and be ahead (such as any pocket pair turning a set, two pair, etc etc.

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Originally Posted by someone447 View Post
There is no reason to even mention what the other players could have folded. You count every card but what you have as still in the deck. Whether or not they have been dealt out, if you haven't seen them, they still have either 50, 47, or 46 cards left in that deck for you to count on, but judging by your past posts, you already know that, so what I don't understand is why you even brought up what others could have had.
You provide an extremely legitamate argument...but it is the same reason why we have pot odds and why we have implied pot odds. How much money can we potentially make/not make in this hand (implied) vs. how much actual money can we make in this hand (pot)...there is no way to know exactly how much money you can off your opponent if any like there is no way you can know exactly how many outs you are up against/have. But you put it in the back of your mind...granted it is a little different scenario but they have some of the same principles.

I know all of you are criticizing Bloch's play, but it is only because you are not looking at the entire picture. YOu do not realize that great players doesn't always put his opponent on two exact cards. Sometimes and a lot of times they do...but sometimes and a lot of times they do not because there are so many possible hands they could be up against.

Also, if Bloch thinks he is up against is a weak player then it makes it that much harder to put him on a flush because there is so many hands that player would be excited with (set, flush, 2 pair, 1 pair, doesn't matter...bad players get excited when they hit a card) as opposed to a great player when they only get excited when they hit an unbeatable hand (and all players have tells....even though that is my one true weakness, reading tells).

This is why great players are much easier to read...1) they know how strong the hand they have actually is...as opposed to a bad player where they think 2 pair is the nuts. 2) good players are more predictable when they chase. They don't call if they do not have odds, they don't chase the nut flush when it doesn't make mathematical sense.

Now, great players are also much harder to read than bad players because their betting patterns are truly unpredictable. The better player you are the more unpredictable you are.

I was watching the 2006 ME last year and that kid Eric Molina has like AJ. He is up against Jeff Lisandro (who is holding 88). Flop comes A, 6, 2. Eric makes a good bet on the flop (Although not betting the flop can make you more money if you bet the right amounts and play the turn and river to perfection). Lisandro calls. turn comes a T (ten) I think. Eric bets again. This was an absolutely horrible bet...also keep in mind I remember that there weren't 3 to a flush on the turn, so that means if Molina doesn't have the flush draw, that Lisandro could make a potential flush on the river if he has one card of that same suit.

Why was it a bad bet? Betting on the turn makes it obvious he has a big hand, it doesn't matter if he flopped a set, has 2 pair, or an ace, Lisandro knows he is not getting the kid off the hand with a bluff, he doesn't have odds to call on teh river, and there is very little chance of him winning the hand. It was like Molina wanted to just take the pot down right there...DUMB!

Would Lisandro be calling that flop with a gutshot strt draw? Aboslutely not, it is pretty obvious he didn't have a set, because Lisandro would have raised Molina on the flop to break him off.

You put your opponent obviously on a pocket pair, them not believing you have the ace. Checking the turn ensures Lisandro (in his mind) that Molina didn't have an ace on teh flop...Molina only checks the turn if (he turns 2 pair aces and tens...or sixs and tens) or if he doesn't have the ace. Molina should have taken the 9-1 odds and hope the Lisandro doesn't hit a set on the river. The odds of the set hitting are very very low and you take this chance to make a whole lot more money on the river against Lisandro.

This is how great players play. Don't bleieve me, watch Brian Townsend on Season 3 of high stakes poker or Phil Laak on season 2...heck there are more traps among knowledgeable poker players because they know the game. You don't make the predictable play and when big pots against good players...just doesn't happen.

Last edited by simms2clayton : 07-09-2007 at 12:11 AM.
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Old 07-08-2007, 11:52 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by simms2clayton View Post
LOL, how is that a "draw heavy board"...just because there are 2 diamonds lol...so what you are saying is when up against ONLY ONE OPPONENT a board is only safe it is rainbow. The thing is, now matter what the flop is a possible straight can be made on the turn. Period. That is a very safe flop because the only stright that can be made on the turn is a gutshot.

If the flop came Kd,Jd,Ts, then I guarantee you Bloch would have bet with any queen being open ended.

I already provided legitamate game theory on why Bloch made the correct play.

The reason I said some outs could have been potential folded is because...some outs could have been folded. It must be accounted for in the back of your mind saying, "First this guy has to hit a killer turn to beat me, secondly, all these outs in the deck have to be there for him to have X% of hitting it, thirldy, I have a redraw just in case he hits the flush, fourthly, I already mentioned all the possible hands...but this guy could be especially excited for flopping a set of 9s, 3s, or turn a 2 outer (in his mind) to make a set of jacks. Bad players get really really excited when they flop a set, straight, flush, 2 pair, and check it down the river. Why isn't Bloch a bad player you ask? Well, I already provided information on the potential hands Bloch already has beat and he didn't want to run out so many possible hands of turning outs that he can get all in against and be ahead (such as any pocket pair turning a set, two pair, etc etc.

simms first of all you're reading too much into this. Plain and simple for a guy of Bloch's caliber he should have mucked the hand and played on. For him to misread this was a mistake and I'm sure if you asked him he would say the same. Secondly your rep means nothing to me so sorry to ruin your day!
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Meanwhile, in hockey the other night, the Washington Capitals' Eric Belanger gets hit with a stick, loses EIGHT teeth, has an instant root canal in the locker room, comes back out and PLAYS and never says boo.

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Old 07-09-2007, 12:19 AM    (permalink
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Jason Alexander doubled up right after the players returned from dinner and it wasn’t without a few snide remarks from his nemesis, Phil Gordon. On a flop of K K J, Alexander moved all-in for $12,925 and the player in seat no. 3 made the call. Alexander turned over K 10 for trips while seat no. 3 showed J J for a full house. The 10 hit the turn, giving Alexander a better full house and this is when Phil Gordon chimed in with, “Ohhh, come on, what a turn!” The river brought the Q and Jason Alexander doubled up to well over the average stack.
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Old 07-09-2007, 02:00 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by BigDawg819 View Post
simms first of all you're reading too much into this. Plain and simple for a guy of Bloch's caliber he should have mucked the hand and played on. For him to misread this was a mistake and I'm sure if you asked him he would say the same. Secondly your rep means nothing to me so sorry to ruin your day!
Okay.

My analysis is long, and goes very much in depth.
Your analysis is short, and it is very shallow only looking at the cards. You don't go into the minds of your opponents which is what every great poker player does.

I would like to know how in the world you can look at this and think you know more about poker/you are right...period. \

Amazing how mediocre players (I AM NOT CALLING YOU A MEDIOCRE PLAYER I HAVE NEVER PLAYED AGAINST YOU BEFORE) can think they are good. Seriously, no matter who you play against they think they are the greatest player in the world, including myself (I don't think I am the best in teh world but I think I am very very good...not gonna lie).
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Old 07-09-2007, 06:06 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by simms2clayton View Post
Okay.

My analysis is long, and goes very much in depth.
Your analysis is short, and it is very shallow only looking at the cards. You don't go into the minds of your opponents which is what every great poker player does.

I would like to know how in the world you can look at this and think you know more about poker/you are right...period. \

Amazing how mediocre players (I AM NOT CALLING YOU A MEDIOCRE PLAYER I HAVE NEVER PLAYED AGAINST YOU BEFORE) can think they are good. Seriously, no matter who you play against they think they are the greatest player in the world, including myself (I don't think I am the best in teh world but I think I am very very good...not gonna lie).
I like your analysis, but as you subtly mentioned, you don't kno the cards of your opponent. Sometimes, it's better to not always make the "right" call based on mathematics alone and follow your gut and experience. For me, flush draws are just too damn risky... especially against tournament players.

However, like Bloch, if i had his hand, I also would have checked to draw out more chips. Similarly, I would've bet big on the turn no matter what. But unlike Bloch, if the guy re-raises you (and the community cards show three cards of the same suit), no matter what the percentages say, you ahve to respect such a re-raise with the potentiality of a flush. Just my opinion.
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Old 07-09-2007, 07:27 AM    (permalink
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I like your analysis, but as you subtly mentioned, you don't kno the cards of your opponent. Sometimes, it's better to not always make the "right" call based on mathematics alone and follow your gut and experience. For me, flush draws are just too damn risky... especially against tournament players.

However, like Bloch, if i had his hand, I also would have checked to draw out more chips. Similarly, I would've bet big on the turn no matter what. But unlike Bloch, if the guy re-raises you (and the community cards show three cards of the same suit), no matter what the percentages say, you ahve to respect such a re-raise with the potentiality of a flush. Just my opinion.
Instincts and experience imo are 2 of the most important traits in a poker player. lol mathematics isn't 100% of my game, nor is it chris ferguson's becuz there is no mathematical equation to say how to play poker because so much goes into it.

What if the guy had a set of 9s though? Then it is a dumb fold. I wasn't there so I don't know Bloch had invested into the hadn but if he had quite a bit of his stack invested it would be totally stupid to fold if he had the winner on the turn. We know now he didn't have the winner becuz the cards were turned over, AND IT IS EASY TO SAY IT WAS A BAD PLAY BECAUSE WE SAW THE CARDS...BLOCH DOESN'T HVAE THE MOTHER******* LUXURY OF FLIPPING THE GUYS' CARDS OVER TO SEE WHAT HE HAS TO DO. HE HAS TO MAKE A READ AND AS I OUTLINED THERE WERE FAR TOO MANY HANDS HE COULD BEAT THAN NOT BEAT AND HE MADE THE RIGHT PLAY.

You know what, you think I am stupid go on 2+2 and post this hand and see the response you get from some of the best online players in the world.
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Old 07-09-2007, 07:33 AM    (permalink
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But unlike Bloch, if the guy re-raises you (and the community cards show three cards of the same suit), no matter what the percentages say, you ahve to respect such a re-raise with the potentiality of a flush. Just my opinion.
I hate to say it but in an estimated 6000 person tournament (#s so far this year are way down) you don't get ahead by folding when you invested the majority of your stack in teh hand, you have a good draw if you are behind the only hadn in the deck that beats, or you are already ahead cuz u have top set.

The only way Bloch should definately fold that hand is if: 1) He has a big, big stack, 2) He didn't invest that much money of his stack into the pot, and 3) His opponent makes a huge reraise back to him for most of his chips.

Would I put my tournament life on the line being a big stack and not being very much invested, and call that reraise absolutely not because it is not worth at that point, but I have an a slightly above average to low stack I have to call because I am trying to get chips or I am already ahead in the hand. It is just that simple.
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Old 07-09-2007, 07:36 AM    (permalink
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I like your analysis, but as you subtly mentioned, you don't kno the cards of your opponent. Sometimes, it's better to not always make the "right" call based on mathematics alone and follow your gut and experience. For me, flush draws are just too damn risky... especially against tournament players.

However, like Bloch, if i had his hand, I also would have checked to draw out more chips. Similarly, I would've bet big on the turn no matter what. But unlike Bloch, if the guy re-raises you (and the community cards show three cards of the same suit), no matter what the percentages say, you ahve to respect such a re-raise with the potentiality of a flush. Just my opinion.
Another point I want to make. Some players know if a scare card comes on the turn they can sense if there opponent doesn't like it. You make a big bet and if you think your opponent is good enough to get away from it he will. So what if the guy Bloch is up against is a very aggessive, loose player. He could be bluffing and try to represent the flush when he really just has QdJs???
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Old 07-09-2007, 09:03 AM    (permalink
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Okay, I was away at a wedding, so I'm going to do some analysis of the Andy Bloch hand:

1. I think Bloch played the hand the right way. It looked to me like he was playing his opponent. It appears he was short-stacked to begin with (looks like he had under $20k in chips, probably less than the chip average), so with K-K, you're immediately looking to take it all the way to double up and get healthy.

2. As soon as he flopped top set, Bloch was looking to get all of his chips in the center. However, it was a bit of a raggedy flop. Even with 2 diamonds out there, a continuation bet probably chases a weak player with a bigger stack away. When he checked, he was looking for the guy to catch a small piece (perhaps pairing an A or something like that), so he played it slow hoping for a small improvement or a bet from his opponent that he could reraise all-in.

3. Obviously, the third diamond on the turn was a scare card, but with top set, he had to bet out to see. With a $5k bet into a pot of about $6000, he likely wins the pot unless his opponent has middle/bottom set, A-K (with the A of diamonds) or a top-end flush (probably J or higher). Small flushes and crap hands go away.

4. When the guy reraised all-in, Bloch had to do some math and some strategy analysis. If he had a starting stack of around $20k, he's sitting with about $13k left and a pot of about $29k ($6k preflop + his $5k bet + the call + the $13k all-in). With top set and the redraw to the boat, he's getting 3.23 to 1 on his money. Even against the nut flush, he has 10 outs (3 for each card on the board + the case K). He obviously felt pot committed. If he wins the hand, he has about $42k in chips and is probably around the chip average. If he loses, he's a microstack and is a huge dog. At that point, he probably had to push given the odds, the money, and tournament strategy.
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Old 07-09-2007, 09:05 AM    (permalink
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Another point to consider: With the nut flush draw, the A-high, and a raggedy flop, even if Bloch bet out on the flop, his opponent might have called anyway. So, even if he bet the flop, he probably still loses the hand and the pot and is eliminated.
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Old 07-09-2007, 12:29 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by simms2clayton View Post
Okay.

My analysis is long, and goes very much in depth.
Your analysis is short, and it is very shallow only looking at the cards. You don't go into the minds of your opponents which is what every great poker player does.

I would like to know how in the world you can look at this and think you know more about poker/you are right...period. \

Amazing how mediocre players (I AM NOT CALLING YOU A MEDIOCRE PLAYER I HAVE NEVER PLAYED AGAINST YOU BEFORE) can think they are good. Seriously, no matter who you play against they think they are the greatest player in the world, including myself (I don't think I am the best in teh world but I think I am very very good...not gonna lie).
I see why there is so much debate from you; you think since you read a book you are now on the pro level! Seriously get over yourself.
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On another note, Nicklas Backstrom is amazingly good.
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Meanwhile, in hockey the other night, the Washington Capitals' Eric Belanger gets hit with a stick, loses EIGHT teeth, has an instant root canal in the locker room, comes back out and PLAYS and never says boo.

So new rule, NBA: Unless you have a root canal at halftime, SHUT UP AND PLAY!
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Old 07-09-2007, 12:45 PM    (permalink
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No matter how good you are or think you are, part of the way you get better is doing hand analysis and having discussions like these. No one here has the right to say someone else is absolutely wrong about anything having to do with any topic. Disagreement is part of the discussion, but respect should remain paramount. Let's all relax and enjoy the WSOP.
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Old 07-09-2007, 12:51 PM    (permalink
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No matter how good you are or think you are, part of the way you get better is doing hand analysis and having discussions like these. No one here has the right to say someone else is absolutely wrong about anything having to do with any topic. Disagreement is part of the discussion, but respect should remain paramount. Let's all relax and enjoy the WSOP.
I'm all for intelligent debate, but when someone comes in with a holier then thou attitude its a problem. Its especially a problem when that someone makes claims to their own greatness. Not to mention I start discrediting their opinion when they try and neg rep you with comments stating how little I know about game theory and strategy.
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On another note, Nicklas Backstrom is amazingly good.
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Meanwhile, in hockey the other night, the Washington Capitals' Eric Belanger gets hit with a stick, loses EIGHT teeth, has an instant root canal in the locker room, comes back out and PLAYS and never says boo.

So new rule, NBA: Unless you have a root canal at halftime, SHUT UP AND PLAY!
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Old 07-09-2007, 01:04 PM    (permalink
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Then you find someone who you don't discuss with and ignore them. Continuing the dialogue is useless. Any more hands you want to run through? I'm down for that...
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Old 07-09-2007, 01:08 PM    (permalink
BigDawg819
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Originally Posted by bsaza2358 View Post
Then you find someone who you don't discuss with and ignore them. Continuing the dialogue is useless. Any more hands you want to run through? I'm down for that...
Once again bsaza you are correct, and the higher road would have been the more logical choice. As for more hands, I haven't really looked through them yet because I really loathe the way the WSOP first day is set up. I think I'll check some hands and post.
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On another note, Nicklas Backstrom is amazingly good.
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Meanwhile, in hockey the other night, the Washington Capitals' Eric Belanger gets hit with a stick, loses EIGHT teeth, has an instant root canal in the locker room, comes back out and PLAYS and never says boo.

So new rule, NBA: Unless you have a root canal at halftime, SHUT UP AND PLAY!
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Old 07-09-2007, 01:14 PM    (permalink
bsaza2358
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I don't slog through stuff with people who don't show respect. It's just not worth the time or effort. You should spend your time on worthy endeavors.
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Old 07-09-2007, 01:25 PM    (permalink
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OK, to break up this angry hand analysis, I'll share with you one of the worst beats I've ever seen. It happened last weekend at my home game.

Player 1 (excellent player, semi-aggressive) on the button limps in. BB (crazy guy that really doesn't understand the game and we all hate this guy) checks. No other players in the hand.

Flop comes 8,4,2 Rainbow.

Terrible player checks
Button bets half pot
Terrible player raises minimum raise
Button moves all in (about the pot size)
Terrible player calls

Button shows 2 aces
Terrible player turns over Q,7 offsuit (WHAAATT? No pair, no draw, just a horrible call)

Terrible player hits running 7s to knock button out.

It was incredible. My buddy gets up, leaves the room and next thing we hear is his monster truck start up and peel out of the parking lot. HAHA. I felt so bad for my buddy. He's a great player. He just won a seat to the WSOP but they allowed him to use it next year cause he couldnt' get the time off work for this year. Tough break.
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Old 07-09-2007, 01:25 PM    (permalink
bsaza2358
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What is everyone's favorite hand to play in Texas Hold 'Em? Mine is J-10 suited. It's a suited connector, and J-high is sometimes good enough to win a pot by itself. I can also get away from it easily when I have no pair/no draw...
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Old 07-09-2007, 01:27 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Borat Sagdiyev View Post
OK, to break up this angry hand analysis, I'll share with you one of the worst beats I've ever seen. It happened last weekend at my home game.

Player 1 (excellent player, semi-aggressive) on the button limps in. BB (crazy guy that really doesn't understand the game and we all hate this guy) checks. No other players in the hand.

Flop comes 8,4,2 Rainbow.

Terrible player checks
Button bets half pot
Terrible player raises minimum raise
Button moves all in (about the pot size)
Terrible player calls

Button shows 2 aces
Terrible player turns over Q,7 offsuit (WHAAATT? No pair, no draw, just a horrible call)

Terrible player hits running 7s to knock button out.

It was incredible. My buddy gets up, leaves the room and next thing we hear is his monster truck start up and peel out of the parking lot. HAHA. I felt so bad for my buddy. He's a great player. He just won a seat to the WSOP but they allowed him to use it next year cause he couldnt' get the time off work for this year. Tough break.
That's pretty brutal. Nothing you can do there. All I know is, I hope that guy comes to my game every week because if he calls all-ins with no pair/no draw, his money will be in my pocket by the end of the night. Bad players and average players who think they are great make the world go round.
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Old 07-09-2007, 01:29 PM    (permalink
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What is everyone's favorite hand to play in Texas Hold 'Em? Mine is J-10 suited. It's a suited connector, and J-high is sometimes good enough to win a pot by itself. I can also get away from it easily when I have no pair/no draw...
J-10 suited is a nice hand, for me its either 7-8 or 8-9 suited or unsuited as long as the price is right. In my experience these are good hands because of the number inside straight draws I see and make. Otherwise I have no problem conceding the hand if nothing his.


Now Pocket Queens will always have a spot in my heart. My first time at a casino, the 2nd hand I was dealt was pocket Queens and I made quads by the turn and took a very nice pot.
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On another note, Nicklas Backstrom is amazingly good.
Quote:
Meanwhile, in hockey the other night, the Washington Capitals' Eric Belanger gets hit with a stick, loses EIGHT teeth, has an instant root canal in the locker room, comes back out and PLAYS and never says boo.

So new rule, NBA: Unless you have a root canal at halftime, SHUT UP AND PLAY!
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Old 07-09-2007, 01:35 PM    (permalink
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J-10 suited is a nice hand, for me its either 7-8 or 8-9 suited or unsuited as long as the price is right. In my experience these are good hands because of the number inside straight draws I see and make. Otherwise I have no problem conceding the hand if nothing his.


Now Pocket Queens will always have a spot in my heart. My first time at a casino, the 2nd hand I was dealt was pocket Queens and I made quads by the turn and took a very nice pot.
My first hand ever at a casino, I had ducks and limped it in 4th position. It was called around and checked in the BB. Flop was A-7-2 rainbow. I saw the SB check and bet $20 out of turn. The BB saw the "dead money" in the pot and went all in with A-2. I was petrified of losing my $150 stack at a $1/$2 table, but I called after agonizing for a while (deduced he would have raised with a legit preflop hand. I won the pot and doubled up. Even with that big hand, I still hate ducks...
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Old 07-09-2007, 02:42 PM    (permalink
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What is everyone's favorite hand to play in Texas Hold 'Em? Mine is J-10 suited. It's a suited connector, and J-high is sometimes good enough to win a pot by itself. I can also get away from it easily when I have no pair/no draw...
I have always been fond of J-10 suited or any J-10 in particular. second favorite is 8-9 suited.

The field at the WSOP is smaller than last year.

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The fourth and final day one, day 1D, is set to begin promptly at 12 p.m. The field should be littered with big names and notable players, as many have elected to play today and not have a day off before day two. Freddy Deeb, Phil Hellmuth and 2006 Main Event champion Jamie Gold have yet to make an appearance and are expected to share the felt today. Today's field size is predicted at more than 1,600 entrants, putting the total field size at more than 6,000.
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Old 07-09-2007, 03:02 PM    (permalink
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wtf why would u ever fold aces you have an 80% chance of winning regarldess of the flop.
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Old 07-09-2007, 03:40 PM    (permalink
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What are you even talking about? Aces are a favorite to win preflop. They have underpairs dominated 4:1, A-x dominated 9:1, and 2 random cards dominated at least 5:2. That's all preflop. Even so, pocket rockets are only 1 pair. 1 pair can only beat lower pairs and nothing. Aces don't always win.
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