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Old 03-08-2012, 10:15 PM    (permalink
Rabscuttle
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Perhaps. It's so hard to tell with limited snaps and not seeing what happens on the practice field through the season.
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Old 03-09-2012, 12:57 AM    (permalink
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@Ness,

Yes I do know that Smith contract is over a few years but 30 mil , really? Just because he improved some what on what he did in our new system.I'm still NOT impressed and yes I still don't like him as our QB.I would rather pay Peyton 30 mi for a 2-3 year contract to where we can get a better shot at the super bowl then bring in CK, by then CK should be groomed and well taught by Peyton if he was able to come in.But that is just me.
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Old 03-09-2012, 01:11 AM    (permalink
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Just for some context to Dan's endless assertions that Smith is not worth $10 million a season:

David Garrard, an efficient and solid-but-not-world-beating-QB who profiles in the same league as Smith signed a 6-year $60 million contract in 2008 with $18 million guaranteed. A deal averaging $10 a year, of which not all would be guaranteed, would put him in the same league as such luminaries as Matt Cassel, Kevin Kolb, and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

As for his 'Orton or Flynn if Smith doesn't sign tantrum', we can assume that both of them will ask for a similar or greater deal as any of the above.
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Old 03-09-2012, 01:46 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by BandwagonPunditry View Post
Just for some context to Dan's endless assertions that Smith is not worth $10 million a season:

David Garrard, an efficient and solid-but-not-world-beating-QB who profiles in the same league as Smith signed a 6-year $60 million contract in 2008 with $18 million guaranteed. A deal averaging $10 a year, of which not all would be guaranteed, would put him in the same league as such luminaries as Matt Cassel, Kevin Kolb, and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

As for his 'Orton or Flynn if Smith doesn't sign tantrum', we can assume that both of them will ask for a similar or greater deal as any of the above.
NONE of those QB's are worth $10m a season period. Garrard is gone, Cassel is average at best. Kolb sucks and Fitzpatrick is 50/50 depending on how he plays in 2012 since they said he was playing with broken ribs or some crap.

Smith is NOT worth $10m a season. He had a solid year but if it wasnt for finally having an offensive based HC and scheme that fit him and Harbaugh who hid his weaknesses and used his strengths as best he could, everyone here would be wanting him long gone. He got $5m last season. A $3m increase is more than fair. Also, unlike all those other QB's, Smith was the number one overall draft pick and considering how much he's already been paid by SF, he doesnt deserve another big contract, period.

As for Orton, I think that he'll go to CHI as the backup to Cutler and even if he does go to a team as a starter, I dont see him getting more than $7-8m a season. Flynn will probably get around $10m a season but a longer deal. And to be honest, I would rather pay Flynn more than Smith and here's why - Flynn has better accuracy, stronger arm, better pocket presence and most importantly, he wasnt the 49ers number one overall draft pick in 2005. Smith already got his payday....he shouldnt be getting another huge one.

Sorry but I just dont see the reasoning behind giving Smith a SECOND huge contract when he didnt earn his first one.
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Old 03-09-2012, 02:03 AM    (permalink
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NONE of those QB's are worth $10m a season period. Garrard is gone, Cassel is average at best. Kolb sucks and Fitzpatrick is 50/50 depending on how he plays in 2012 since they said he was playing with broken ribs or some crap.
The market says they are. That's the reality of it. Whether you think they're worth it or not on whatever arbitrary scale you use whenever you make these assertions, that's the comparative field that he's in. That's what his deal will be based on.

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Smith is NOT worth $10m a season. He had a solid year but if it wasnt for finally having an offensive based HC and scheme that fit him and Harbaugh who hid his weaknesses and used his strengths as best he could, everyone here would be wanting him long gone. He got $5m last season. A $3m increase is more than fair. Also, unlike all those other QB's, Smith was the number one overall draft pick and considering how much he's already been paid by SF, he doesnt deserve another big contract, period.

As for Orton, I think that he'll go to CHI as the backup to Cutler and even if he does go to a team as a starter, I dont see him getting more than $7-8m a season. Flynn will probably get around $10m a season but a longer deal. And to be honest, I would rather pay Flynn more than Smith and here's why - Flynn has better accuracy, stronger arm, better pocket presence and most importantly, he wasnt the 49ers number one overall draft pick in 2005. Smith already got his payday....he shouldnt be getting another huge one.

Sorry but I just dont see the reasoning behind giving Smith a SECOND huge contract when he didnt earn his first one.
You pay sports players for the years ahead of them not the years behind them. If the FO is committed to Smith as a long term starter then his first deal is irrelevant. It was unfortunate that he spent a lot of time on the treatment table but that's pro sports for you. We said 'we've paid you a lot, take a small deal and show us something' last time round and he took us to the NFCCG. We don't get to do that again this time around.
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Old 03-09-2012, 08:43 AM    (permalink
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The market says they are. That's the reality of it. Whether you think they're worth it or not on whatever arbitrary scale you use whenever you make these assertions, that's the comparative field that he's in. That's what his deal will be based on.



You pay sports players for the years ahead of them not the years behind them. If the FO is committed to Smith as a long term starter then his first deal is irrelevant. It was unfortunate that he spent a lot of time on the treatment table but that's pro sports for you. We said 'we've paid you a lot, take a small deal and show us something' last time round and he took us to the NFCCG. We don't get to do that again this time around.
Excatly.....rep
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Old 03-09-2012, 09:14 AM    (permalink
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The market says they are. That's the reality of it. Whether you think they're worth it or not on whatever arbitrary scale you use whenever you make these assertions, that's the comparative field that he's in. That's what his deal will be based on.

You pay sports players for the years ahead of them not the years behind them. If the FO is committed to Smith as a long term starter then his first deal is irrelevant. It was unfortunate that he spent a lot of time on the treatment table but that's pro sports for you. We said 'we've paid you a lot, take a small deal and show us something' last time round and he took us to the NFCCG. We don't get to do that again this time around.
And im sure the teams who went according to that market are regretting it now, dont ya think?

Yeah, im aware that you pay players for what they hopefully will do, not what they did but one problem with that....if its an incoming rookie, its one thing but when its a player who already has seven seasons in the NFL, you pretty much know what you're getting and regards to Smith, what I would be getting is an average or above average at best QB who's not worth more than $10m a season.

As for Smith taking a paycut a few years ago to stay, he did that because he knew no other team wanted him. He stayed in SF last season because he knew no team wanted him. Maybe, now other teams are interested in him, possibly SEA. Personally, I say if he doesnt sign by Monday, I say goodbye period because he's being greedy and a one year $5m contract isnt cheap for a QB who did nothing until last season.

The length of the deal is revelant because the longer the deal, the more guaranteed money there will be. Everyone here complains about wanting to pay Wallace $10m a season but have no problems paying Smith the same or more? I dont understand that one because at least Wallace has played damn good and at 25, he has the upside and potential to get better. I dont see Smith improving to the level that he should be getting $10m or more a season.

But hey, to each his own.
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Old 03-09-2012, 09:47 AM    (permalink
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Nobody here complains about the salary Wallace would be getting. Its just that you have to give up your first rounder what makes most not wanting Wallace.
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Old 03-09-2012, 11:04 AM    (permalink
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And im sure the teams who went according to that market are regretting it now, dont ya think?

Yeah, im aware that you pay players for what they hopefully will do, not what they did but one problem with that....if its an incoming rookie, its one thing but when its a player who already has seven seasons in the NFL, you pretty much know what you're getting and regards to Smith, what I would be getting is an average or above average at best QB who's not worth more than $10m a season.

As for Smith taking a paycut a few years ago to stay, he did that because he knew no other team wanted him. He stayed in SF last season because he knew no team wanted him. Maybe, now other teams are interested in him, possibly SEA. Personally, I say if he doesnt sign by Monday, I say goodbye period because he's being greedy and a one year $5m contract isnt cheap for a QB who did nothing until last season.

The length of the deal is revelant because the longer the deal, the more guaranteed money there will be. Everyone here complains about wanting to pay Wallace $10m a season but have no problems paying Smith the same or more? I dont understand that one because at least Wallace has played damn good and at 25, he has the upside and potential to get better. I dont see Smith improving to the level that he should be getting $10m or more a season.

But hey, to each his own.
Actually Seattle and Cleveland were planning on making big pushes for Alex last year.
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I dunno even half of those guys why did we sign them jeez.
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Old 03-09-2012, 12:20 PM    (permalink
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@Ness,

Yes I do know that Smith contract is over a few years but 30 mil , really? Just because he improved some what on what he did in our new system.I'm still NOT impressed and yes I still don't like him as our QB.I would rather pay Peyton 30 mi for a 2-3 year contract to where we can get a better shot at the super bowl then bring in CK, by then CK should be groomed and well taught by Peyton if he was able to come in.But that is just me.
10 million dollars a year for a quarterback isn't that much compared to the elite starters in the NFL. If you think Manning is going to take 30 million over 2-3 years when he just signed a contract with the Colts where he would be getting paid 18 million yearly, you're nuts. Basically, $30 million is way too low.
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Old 03-09-2012, 04:58 PM    (permalink
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Color me surprised....Niners give 7th round tender to Grant
http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archiv...ound-pick.html

Cue Dan in 5...........4............3............2........

My only conclusion is having a back-up making 2 mil isnt good for future negotiations with a Pro Bowl CB who only earned 2 million last year(Rogers) and a All-Pro starter at ILB due to make a whopping $450,000 this upcoming season(Bowman). Tendering him at his orginial round helps them save face I would gather. But I think this means Grant is as good as gone and they have probably known it for some time.

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Old 03-09-2012, 06:17 PM    (permalink
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Well it fits in the way Baalke runs the Niners and i can understand they dont give him the second round tender because its questionable if anyone would go for him then. And no you basically allow him te go which i can understand
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Old 03-09-2012, 06:37 PM    (permalink
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Something tells me that like Rogers, Baalke believes Grant was more a by-product of the system and not necessarily a hard guy to replace. Baalke has been dead on in judging our own player's value up until now. We're about to find out here shortly if that trend continues.
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Old 03-09-2012, 08:45 PM    (permalink
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I warned you guys about Grant. A second-round tender was never a possibility. No team would give up a second and the Niners certainly weren't going to get stuck paying Bowman's backup more than four times Bowman's salary.
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Old 03-09-2012, 09:06 PM    (permalink
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WOW!!! A 7th for Grant? Sorry, but for $700k more, a second round tender would have been better and smarter. Sorry, but thats not a smart business decision and they're worrying about saving face??? What is this??? Wrestling all of a sudden??? You're supposed to do whats best for business period and that isnt. I wouldnt even have tendered Grant if all I was going to do was tender him for a 7th rounder.

And so what if Bowman is getting less? Big deal...he'll get his contract next off-season anyway. I'm sorry but everyone is always worried about this guy or that guy or whatever and thats such crap. Should deal with every guy personally and exclude what anyone else did. Grant is better than a 7th rounder who'll probably be on the PS or not even make that. UGH.

But whatever.....im just waiting for FA to start so I can post some rants. LOL.
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Old 03-09-2012, 09:35 PM    (permalink
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Well it fits in the way Baalke runs the Niners and i can understand they dont give him the second round tender because its questionable if anyone would go for him then. And no you basically allow him te go which i can understand
Well no one would give up a 2nd round selection for Grant. I think he's worth more than a 7th rounder though. At least a 5th.
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Old 03-09-2012, 09:58 PM    (permalink
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Yeah and if they think he was as good as he was because of the system and they can find a replaced cheaper i am perfectly fine with a 7th round tender.
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Old 03-09-2012, 11:56 PM    (permalink
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The market says they are. That's the reality of it. Whether you think they're worth it or not on whatever arbitrary scale you use whenever you make these assertions, that's the comparative field that he's in. That's what his deal will be based on.



You pay sports players for the years ahead of them not the years behind them. If the FO is committed to Smith as a long term starter then his first deal is irrelevant. It was unfortunate that he spent a lot of time on the treatment table but that's pro sports for you. We said 'we've paid you a lot, take a small deal and show us something' last time round and he took us to the NFCCG. We don't get to do that again this time around.
Well written BP and I'm sure the market just got altered tonight with the RG3 deal and Sanchez extension. Somewhere Tom Condon is sitting with a Cheshire cat like grin reading the Sanchez deal.
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Old 03-10-2012, 02:20 AM    (permalink
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Well written BP and I'm sure the market just got altered tonight with the RG3 deal and Sanchez extension. Somewhere Tom Condon is sitting with a Cheshire cat like grin reading the Sanchez deal.
Jets are ******* stupid if the contract extension is as bad as it sounds. As for the market and Smith, doing stupid crap like the Jets and/or Redskins is how you **** up your franchise. And I STILL wouldnt offer Smith more than 3 years $24m with $15m guaranteed if it was up to me.

Baalke better hold his ground with Smith because if he gives in to a legit long term contract, im going to be pissed.
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Old 03-10-2012, 02:24 AM    (permalink
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And why any team feels the need to pay someone extra money as an apology just because they were trying to sign someone else to replace the original guy is beyond me and trying to replace Sanchez with Manning because Manning is easily an upgrade tells me that they dont have any confidence in Sanchez whatsoever but then, go and reward him???

I'm sorry but there's a lot of ******* morons in the NFL who are running teams. My God. UGH.
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Old 03-10-2012, 03:19 AM    (permalink
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I'm sorry but there's a lot of ******* morons in the NFL who are running teams. My God. UGH.
Seriously. I mean, how are there not 31 other teams that haven't tried to acquire Jesus Wallace?
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Old 03-10-2012, 05:30 AM    (permalink
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Well the Jets didnt do us any favors with that Sanchez extenstion but no one will value Smith as much as we do. It's going to be fun watching Baalke and Condon play a game of chicken. Baalke is a hard line kind of GM. Condon is a clever agent. I think Baalke wont budge much off the intial offer. In fact, you might see him bring in a Josh Johnson while still trying to negoiate with Smith/Condon......he does that kind of stuff. And when Smith re-signs, he'll make him beat out two young guns and JJ to remain the starter. I love it.
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Old 03-10-2012, 07:50 AM    (permalink
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Smith really has no leverage in this situation. If he hits the open market, he won't get close to the deal the 49ers are offering him. And would he himself really want to bounce from a team coming off 13-3 where he finally had success? He'd probably go to a worse team, learn a new system, and get familiar with new coaches and personnel yet again.

I'm guessing he and his agent are just putting a figure out there and seeing if the franchise is dumb enough to bite or panic a little. I'd probably do the same thing and push as much as I can until the start of free agency. Really, there isn't any harm. Like I said though, Alex has no leverage. Even if he was dumb enough to leave, it wouldn't be like we're losing a megastar. The bright side would be that we'd finally be rid of Alex Smith and we could see what Colin Kaepernick could do.
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Old 03-10-2012, 10:44 AM    (permalink
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Old 03-10-2012, 11:16 AM    (permalink
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I'm not sure what the concern is with renewing Smith's contract. I'm pretty certain Harbaugh and Baalke have given Marathe a value for Alex and Marathe will work from there.

If a person has followed Marathe's body of work in the Niner's front office they will see a guy that hands out fair contracts that haven't handcuffed the team. Contracts are structured to reward good players but also to give the team easy outs if a player for one reason or another doesn't live up to expectations.

As for thinking the team lives in a bubble and can ignore the market, not too many places on this planet where that is true.
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