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Old 10-22-2012, 02:18 PM    (permalink
49ersfan_87
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The amount of missed big plays is almost sickening? The article only breaks down a handful of plays and most of them are completions for decent to good yardage
There were at least 5 plays with an open receiver and no good outcome (incompletion, sack, int). Add in the Kyle Williams overthrow and thats 6. Thats not counting checkdowns that netted positive yardage- Gore's 1st down, Crabtree's 1st down, Walker's TD, etc. Receivers were open downfield but i'll give Alex a break on plays that worked.

Bottom line, our OL gave the QB ample time and the targets were open downfield...we should have at least hit on a few of those. But Alex's pocket presence has been awful lately, and so have his abilities to make reads. The story with Alex the last few weeks has been if the 1st reads not open, scramble around and then dump it off for a checkdown, if we're lucky. The article does a good job of showing how many big plays were left on the field because of this.

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Old 10-22-2012, 02:40 PM    (permalink
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There were at least 5 plays with an open receiver and no good outcome (incompletion, sack, int). Add in the Kyle Williams overthrow and thats 6. Thats not counting checkdowns that netted positive yardage- Gore's 1st down, Crabtree's 1st down, Walker's TD, etc. Receivers were open downfield but i'll give Alex a break on plays that worked.

Bottom line, our OL gave the QB ample time and the targets were open downfield...we should have at least hit on a few of those.

The story with Alex the last few weeks has been if the 1st reads not open, scramble around and then dump it off for a checkdown, if we're lucky. The article does a good job of showing how many big plays were left on the field.
He seems to be going past the first read on most of these plays and isn't going through your reads once and then getting rid of the ball to your checkdown what a QB is supposed to do? People criticize a QB for locking onto their first read. People criticize a QB for taking a sack when no one is open. And now people criticize a QB for checking down when no one is open. I swear it seems like some people want Smith to just throwing to covered receivers and hoping they come down with the ball. Of course, if he does do that, people will criticize him for getting bailed out by his receivers.

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Old 10-22-2012, 02:45 PM    (permalink
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Some of this is Smith's fault but I think a lot of people don't seem to understand how a quarterback's progressions work. A lot of times a receiver will come open after the QB has already progressed past him and QBs rarely have time to go back through their progression. I am pretty sure that Davis is probably the first option in most of our pass plays, or at least he should be, so Smith will look at him first. If he isn't open when Smith looks at him he goes to the next receiver in the progression. When Smith used to lock on to his first target and just hope he got open he was criticized for it. Now he quickly goes through his progression and is still criticized for it. On two of the first three plays in that article the 49ers gained good yardage because of it.

The endzone interception was unquestionably terrible but the play the article describes before that was blown way out of proportion. He slides less than a full stride to his left and, judging by direction he was facing right when he got the ball, the play was designed to go somewhere to the left of the field. He slides to get a better view of the part of the field he is supposed to be going to.

The amount of missed big plays is almost sickening? The article only breaks down a handful of plays and most of them are completions for decent to good yardage
Those are just the one's Jack chose to point out. There were more. And when you see it in real time, with the play in full motion it looks much worst. You can make all the excuses for progression you want. A lot of times Alex isn't even letting guys run out there routes to the intended destination before he bails to the check-down. He doesn't anticipate how a route will break against certain coverages....that's why he only throws when guys are WIDE open. And he's late with the ball on breaking routes, which is another indicator he's not sure of either the coverage or where the WR will be. Either way, it's a problem. He drops his eyes way too often to look at the rush and its very apparent. He feels pressure that isn't there way too often for a guy who's been in the league as long as him. His pocket presence has always been a notch below average and I'm not sure that will ever change but he's rushing himself more than he needs to. Half the sacks Alex takes is him running right into the sack instead of just merely sliding left or right, or stepping up and throwing the ball away. Or at a guy's feet and not eating the sack and losing yards. This line is very good. The pass protection is usually good on most pass plays. So what's the problem?
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Old 10-22-2012, 02:55 PM    (permalink
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Those are just the one's Jack chose to point out. There were more. And when you see it in real time, with the play in full motion it looks much worst. You can make all the excuses for progression you want. A lot of times Alex isn't even letting guys run out there routes to the intended destination before he bails to the check-down. He doesn't anticipate how a route will break against certain coverages....that's why he only throws when guys are WIDE open. And he's late with the ball on breaking routes, which is another indicator he's not sure of either the coverage or where the WR will be. Either way, it's a problem. He drops his eyes way too often to look at the rush and its very apparent. He feels pressure that isn't there way too often for a guy who's been in the league as long as him. His pocket presence has always been a notch below average and I'm not sure that will ever change but he's rushing himself more than he needs to. Half the sacks Alex takes is him running right into the sack instead of just merely sliding left or right, or stepping up and throw the ball away or at a guy's feet and not eating the sack anot losing yards. This line is very good. The pass protection is usually good on most pass plays. So what's the problem?
There aren't more, or at least there aren't many more. People just say there are. Thursday night was the first game all season where Alex really checked down a lot, did anyone think that might be by design? The Seahawks have one of the best pass defenses and pass rushes in the NFL and allow on 5.8 Y/A this season. Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Freaking Rodgers, only threw for 223 yards on 39 pass attempts. He was also sacked nine times and the Packers lost the game. Did it ever occur to people that maybe the gameplan was for Alex to go through his progressions as quickly as possibly and checkdown if nothing was open?
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Old 10-22-2012, 02:57 PM    (permalink
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He seems to be going past the first read on most of these plays and isn't going through your reads once and then getting rid of the ball to your checkdown what a QB is supposed to do? People criticize a QB for locking onto their first read. People criticize a QB for taking a sack when no one is open. And now people criticize a QB for checking down when no one is open. I swear it seems like some people want Smith to just throwing to covered receivers and hoping they come down with the ball. Of course, if he does do that, people will criticize him for getting bailed out by his receivers.
No, it seems he isn't going past the first read. It's as if the first read is covered, forget the second and the third, bail to the checkdown. And when he does go to the second and third, its as though he isn't really looking at where they are and where the defense is. It's was a play in the Giants game where Alex first read was Moss, who was covered, so he goes to the second which was VD on a underneath route, and VD is open but on film it looks as if Alex is looking at the safety and not where VD is and turns to the 3rd read. That's classic Alex right there. He's not seeing the field well at all right now. Even when guys open right in front of him, its as if their invisible.
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Old 10-22-2012, 03:07 PM    (permalink
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There aren't more, or at least there aren't many more. People just say there are. Thursday night was the first game all season where Alex really checked down a lot, did anyone think that might be by design? The Seahawks have one of the best pass defenses and pass rushes in the NFL and allow on 5.8 Y/A this season. Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Freaking Rodgers, only threw for 223 yards on 39 pass attempts. He was also sacked nine times and the Packers lost the game. Did it ever occur to people that maybe the gameplan was for Alex to go through his progressions as quickly as possibly and checkdown if nothing was open?
In the second half, sure that was the gameplan. As Jack points out, it was a great adjustment by Roman to use VD as a decoy and let the underneath stuff open up. But why is that the gameplan? Ask yourself that? Because Alex has limitations as a QB. Please don't sit there and tell me Thursday is the only game Alex chose to check down a lot. Alex checks down alot, always. It's who he is. Roman just used formations and personnel to dictate the coverage, then told Alex look for the checkdown to keep the chains moving. Now if we were playing anybody other than rookie QB, do you think we really win that game? I don't.
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Old 10-22-2012, 03:33 PM    (permalink
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In the second half, sure that was the gameplan. As Jack points out, it was a great adjustment by Roman to use VD as a decoy and let the underneath stuff open up. But why is that the gameplan? Ask yourself that? Because Alex has limitations as a QB. Please don't sit there and tell me Thursday is the only game Alex chose to check down a lot. Alex checks down alot, always. It's who he is. Roman just used formations and personnel to dictate the coverage, then told Alex look for the checkdown to keep the chains moving. Now if we were playing anybody other than rookie QB, do you think we really win that game? I don't.
Alex does not check down a lot, sorry but that is blatantly false. His percentage of completions to running backs is lower than most starting quarterbacks. His Y/A is top 10 in the NFL this year, and please don't say that is because of YAC because the 49ers are bottom 10 in the NFL in YAC. As of two weeks ago he had a higher percentage of passes traveling 20+ yards in the air than Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan.

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Old 10-22-2012, 07:48 PM    (permalink
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Alex does not check down a lot, sorry but that is blatantly false. His percentage of completions to running backs is lower than most starting quarterbacks. His Y/A is top 10 in the NFL this year, and please don't say that is because of YAC because the 49ers are bottom 10 in the NFL in YAC. As of two weeks ago he had a higher percentage of passes traveling 20+ yards in the air than Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan.
A checkdown doesn't always mean the ball is going to a RB. There you go again using stats as a end to justify the means. Everytime someone dare criticize your boy Alex here you come, waving your stats. If Alex throws a 3 yard out route, instead of a dig route 15 yards further upfield that is also open, that is a checkdown. Whether the 3 yard out is his first progression or his second, its considered a checkdown route. All checkdowns aren't only to RBs. All checkdowns aren't the last progression. Is a screen pass a checkdown because its thrown to a RB? When I say checkdown, I'm referring to the route or player closest to the line of scrimmage.

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Old 10-22-2012, 07:51 PM    (permalink
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A checkdown doesn't always mean the ball is going to a RB. There you go again using stats as a end to justify the means. Everytime someone dare criticize your boy Alex here you come, waving your stats. If Alex throws a 3 yard out route, instead of a dig route 15 yards further upfield that is also open, that is a checkdown. Whether the 3 yard out is his first progression or his second, its considered a checkdown route. All checkdowns aren't only to RBs. All checkdowns aren't the last progression. Is a screen pass a checkdown because its thrown to a RB?
Things like this would show up in the stats, whether it be through Y/A or YAC. If he is checking it down as much as you, and others, seem to believe then either he would have a low Y/A or the 49ers would have a lot of YAC. Neither is true. You also completely ignored that he attempts a higher percentage of deep passe, >20 yards, than arguably the four best QBs in the NFL this year. Why this board is so against using stats to support arguments is beyond me.

I criticize Alex Smith when I think he deserves it. He was awful against the Giants and that interception in the redzone against the Seahawks was terrible. But, overall, he was average against Seattle, just like he was against the Jets and Vikings.

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Old 10-22-2012, 08:13 PM    (permalink
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Things like this would show up in the stats, whether it be through Y/A or YAC. You also completely ignored that he attempts a higher percentage of deep passes than arguably the four best QBs in the NFL this year.

I criticize Alex Smith when I think he deserves it. He was awful against the Giants and that interception in the redzone against the Seahawks was terrible. But, overall, he was average against Seattle, just like he was against the Jets and Vikings.
Sure he attempts them.....what percentage are completed? You just said he has the lowest YAC in the league....you don't think that goes hand in hand with my argument of where the greater percent of his passes are caught?

No you don't really criticize him. You jump to his defense at every turn. It's always a "but" in there somewhere. "Yea Alex played bad but his WRs didn't help him out any." Let me ask you this, you honestly believe Alex can keep being "average" as you say and we can win in the post-season? Do you think what he did against the Hawks is good enough to get it done in the playoffs? Our defense isn't 'lights out' like it was last year. Neither is our special teams, thus far. If you say it isn't enough, than your essentially agreeing with me because that's all I'm saying. He has to be better for us to go where we want to go. He has to be a better QB than what he's put on film the last four games.
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Old 10-22-2012, 08:23 PM    (permalink
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Sure he attempts them.....what percentage are completed? You just said he has the lowest YAC in the league....you don't think that goes hand in hand with my argument of where the greater percent of his passes are caught?
This was two weeks ago, and his numbers have obviously gotten worse since then, but it gives you an idea.

http://i.imgur.com/9zqIl.jpg

You say he only throws to wide open receivers, wouldn't that mean the 49ers get more YAC?

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No you don't really criticize him. You jump to his defense at every turn. It's always a "but" in there somewhere. "Yea Alex played bad but his WRs didn't help him out any." Let me ask you this, you honestly believe Alex can keep being "average" as you say and we can win in the post-season? Do you think what he did against the Hawks is good enough to get it done in the playoffs? Our defense isn't 'lights out' like it was last year. Neither is our special teams, thus far. If you say it isn't enough, than your essentially agreeing with me because that's all I'm saying. He has to be better for us to go where we want to go. He has to be a better QB than what he's put on film the last four games.
No he was awful against the Giants. His decisions were terrible and his throws were terrible. I do think that if Alex can play average against elite defenses like Seattle then we can win in the playoffs. Not every defense is that good, most aren't anywhere near that good. If you are going to criticize Alex's performance against Seattle you better be prepared to criticize Rodgers and Brady as well, because they were only marginally better. Do you think the Packers and Patriots can win with their QBs playing average in the playoffs?
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Old 10-22-2012, 09:14 PM    (permalink
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This was two weeks ago, and his numbers have obviously gotten worse since then, but it gives you an idea.

http://i.imgur.com/9zqIl.jpg

You say he only throws to wide open receivers, wouldn't that mean the 49ers get more YAC?



No he was awful against the Giants. His decisions were terrible and his throws were terrible. I do think that if Alex can play average against elite defenses like Seattle then we can win in the playoffs. Not every defense is that good, most aren't anywhere near that good. If you are going to criticize Alex's performance against Seattle you better be prepared to criticize Rodgers and Brady as well, because they were only marginally better. Do you think the Packers and Patriots can win with their QBs playing average in the playoffs?
A open WR isn't indicative of big YAC. How often does Alex hit guys in stride, with the ability to do something after the catch? Look at the big pass he had to Moss. It was completed but was underthrown. Had he hit Moss in stride, its a TD. I'm grateful he completed the pass but that's partly why our YAC numbers are low. Alex isn't very accurate...even when guys are WIDE open.

As far as other QBs, do you really want to open that can of worms? Comparing Alex to guys like Brady and Rodgers? You think if Aaron Rogers had our O-Line, our running game, that he'd be only marginally better than Alex was? Rodgers has a crappy O-Line, decimated with injuries. He's missing his best WR and has ZERO running game to lean on....do you really want to go there? You put Rodgers in this offense and it wouldn't be fair to the rest of the NFL honestly. With weapons around him and the running game he has at his disposal, he is doing less with more compared to Rodgers and Brady. You think passing for 140 yards is enough to beat a good defense? If it wasn't for the running game, we don't beat the 'Hawks. That's my problem with your analysis. There's going to come a day where the running game won't be enough to get it done.....when the defense isn't playing up to their standards....then what will we do?

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Old 10-22-2012, 10:46 PM    (permalink
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In other news, we dropped from 3rd against the run, all the way to 11th with out abysmal showing the past two weeks. We are however, #1 in overall defense as well as passing defense. We're also #2 in scoring defense.

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Old 10-22-2012, 11:27 PM    (permalink
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ehhh 10 chars

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Old 10-23-2012, 07:50 AM    (permalink
abaddon41_80
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Originally Posted by VAfy-ya View Post
A open WR isn't indicative of big YAC. How often does Alex hit guys in stride, with the ability to do something after the catch? Look at the big pass he had to Moss. It was completed but was underthrown. Had he hit Moss in stride, its a TD. I'm grateful he completed the pass but that's partly why our YAC numbers are low. Alex isn't very accurate...even when guys are WIDE open.
If Alex was an inaccurate as you believe then where are all the great catches by 49ers receivers that keep his completion percentage so high?

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As far as other QBs, do you really want to open that can of worms? Comparing Alex to guys like Brady and Rodgers? You think if Aaron Rogers had our O-Line, our running game, that he'd be only marginally better than Alex was? Rodgers has a crappy O-Line, decimated with injuries. He's missing his best WR and has ZERO running game to lean on....do you really want to go there? You put Rodgers in this offense and it wouldn't be fair to the rest of the NFL honestly. With weapons around him and the running game he has at his disposal, he is doing less with more compared to Rodgers and Brady. You think passing for 140 yards is enough to beat a good defense? If it wasn't for the running game, we don't beat the 'Hawks. That's my problem with your analysis. There's going to come a day where the running game won't be enough to get it done.....when the defense isn't playing up to their standards....then what will we do?
Two years ago we had almost the exact same offensive line and everyone thought it sucked, suddenly it is great. I like the offensive line but other people need to make up their minds. Rodgers and Brady also have much better weapons to throw to, btw. The running game didn't win the game on Thursday, it put it away once we got the lead. Our touchdown drive was all Alex.
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Old 10-23-2012, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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I used to think that the way Alex plays would be good enough to win games, but after that Giants game it seems like that is not true anymore. The niners obviously have been winning some games, but they could be even better.

I think Alex is an ok quarterback and I think that Harbaugh and Roman do a good job realizing his limitations (every team/QB has limitations), but that article supported what I already knew which is that Alex is consistently missing open receivers. It is not that he isn't throwing the ball into coverage, they truly are open and he simply doesn't see them. It makes the offense very limited and I know every QB misses open guys sometimes, but probably not as often as Alex does. The good thing is that Alex is usually smart with the football and doesn't turn it over as much as other QBs, so I will give him credit for that. Nevertheless, I am finally fed up with him and I want a QB in this upcoming draft.
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Old 10-23-2012, 01:14 PM    (permalink
VAfy-ya
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
If Alex was an inaccurate as you believe then where are all the great catches by 49ers receivers that keep his completion percentage so high?



Two years ago we had almost the exact same offensive line and everyone thought it sucked, suddenly it is great. I like the offensive line but other people need to make up their minds. Rodgers and Brady also have much better weapons to throw to, btw. The running game didn't win the game on Thursday, it put it away once we got the lead. Our touchdown drive was all Alex.
Yea, it was all Alex throwing 5 yard checkdowns and the running game carving out the big yards on the ground. Watch the game again, it was the run game ripping off huge gains, keeping the chains moving which took pressure of Alex having to convert 3rd and longs, that won us the game. When Alex had a chance to really put the game away, what did he do? Thats right, he threw a goaline int.

Two years ago is a eternity in football. We had two rookies starting, along with Baas and Rachal and a completely different staff. Care to try again? Any Niner fan can see this line is much improved and is giving Alex tons of time to make proper reads and throws. Like I said, you fail to see logic when discussing Alex. That much is obvious. It's either his WRs are bad, his O-Line isn't great, the defense we played is really very good or look here, 'I have stats'. He had one drive where he looked half-way competent so obviously he was the reason we won. It's sad really that you could feel that attached to one player and not see the bigger picture here. But you keep telling yourself all Alex has to do is just play slightly above a rookie for this team to win it all. I know, I know....but the Hawks and they're great D, that's an accomplishment! Whatever helps you sleep better at night. I'm just going to agree to disagree and move on because we're just going in circles here.
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Old 10-23-2012, 01:45 PM    (permalink
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Alex was 5/5 for 60 yards and the touchdown on that drive. The running game had five carries for 21 yards. You can say he checked down all you want, and maybe he did on that drive, but the fact is that he made the right decision on every play of the drive and got us into the endzone and gave us the lead. In a game where the Seahawks defensive backs were all but mugging the 49ers receivers and against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, checking down is the smart thing to do.

I find it very depressing that you continue to cling to this notion that Alex played poorly against the Jets, Vikings and Seahawks this year when the numbers prove that he was average, compared to what those pass defenses normally do this year, in all three games. Smith has only had two games where his passer rating was lower than the average against that team this year, three points lower at Minnesota and obviously much lower against the Giants. In every other game he has performed better, performing significantly better in three of those games, than the average against those defenses. You can say that he missed open receivers or made lots of bad plays all you want but there is no proof of it.
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Old 10-23-2012, 04:06 PM    (permalink
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Ummmmmm.... back on topic....

Check it down to this guy...



:P



The refreshing thing, at least IMO, is that nothing seen in those stills (which are GREAT) isn't being seen by coaches and Smith, himself. I have complete trust that Harbaalke will fix these issues with or without Smith.
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Old 10-23-2012, 05:20 PM    (permalink
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I'm just as annoyed with the QB play as everyone else, but that article is bs. The only times VD was open in those pics were the very first one and the stick route...other than that, he's showing pics after Alex had already started his throwing motion and the coverage started shading over. It's a hit-piece, poor and amateurish. I will say that the Moss play was disgusting though, come on man, not in year 8.
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Old 10-23-2012, 08:52 PM    (permalink
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Alright so how about this upcoming Cardinal game huh.
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I dunno even half of those guys why did we sign them jeez.
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Old 10-23-2012, 09:06 PM    (permalink
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Alright so how about this upcoming Cardinal game huh.
Should be a good one lol
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Old 10-23-2012, 09:16 PM    (permalink
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We just beat the Cardinals. Took 7 games, but we got it done.
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Old 10-23-2012, 10:05 PM    (permalink
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We just beat the Cardinals. Took 7 games, but we got it done.
VERY nice! Great success!
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Old 10-24-2012, 01:52 PM    (permalink
VAfy-ya
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Switching gears for a second, I was interested in what everyone thoughts are on the draft this year. Personally, I think we'll go heavy on defense. I think probably our first four picks will be defensive players. I believe Brown, Ice, Tukafau, Brock, Gooden, Cox, Haralson, Haggans, RJF and Goldson are all UFA after this season.

I think Goldson has earned his money. I don't know what else the guy has to prove but I think he's clearly a Top 5 safety. Pay the man Trent.

I can see Ice returning at the right price. I really want RJF to come back. He's such a versatile guy in a odd front, he can play all 3 positions. I would even go as far as to say I'd take RJF over Ice if I had to choose one. I dont think they use him nearly enough. He should be a rotational guy upfront in the nickel.

Don't see Brown coming back. Not with Cully waiting in the wings and the contract they just gave Rogers. Brown will get a nice little payday on the open market, far more than what he's worth. Alot teams in the market for a good #2 CB.

Not sure if they try to extend Cox. He hasn't played bad in limited snaps but I dont know if he's done enough to convince Baalke he should stay. He's has added value on STs and with Brown sure to leave, might not be a bad idea to try a throw a little bit of money his way for a guy who knows your scheme and is still young and improving.

As for the rest, don't think they will be brought back. Brock maybe because his speed is needed on STs but he might have visions of a bigger role as a CB elsewhere. I think we need some more guys who can get after the QB so I think beefing up the OLBs will be a priority in the draft.

And all though he's on offense, I'd like to add that I really hope they bring back Kyle Williams. He's looked great the few times the ball has gone his way this season. I think he has massive potential if we ever get the QB position running at maximum efficiency. And do we shell out the money to keep Delaine? Decisions, decisions....

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