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Old 05-16-2009, 04:45 PM    (permalink
EricCartmann
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Default Only few of the Rivals 100 make a Pro roster.

I was going over the Rivals Top 100 recruits through the years, and noticed few if any make it to an NFL roster. Actually very few seem to even make an impact in college.

Of the 300 players selected as the top 100 recruits coming out of high school between 2002-2004, I am only seeing 2 Potential NFL Hall of Famers, Haloti Ngata (#2 in 2002), Adriane Peterson (#1 in 2004). Still too early to comment on guys from the Rivals 2005 class.

So what's my point? Point is don't get too happy if your school got a "good" recruiting class, it does not mean jack.
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Old 05-16-2009, 04:51 PM    (permalink
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Guys can be extremely good college players and not have successful pro careers. It happens.
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Old 05-16-2009, 04:58 PM    (permalink
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this makes sense to me... the transition from college to the nfl is much larger than high school to college. Plus the 3-4 years you are at college are the years that you mentally mature and you see if you have the head to play the game. Also another factor is size... in high school you can be a freak athlete but not have prototypical size. the nfl puts so much on size that a small RB who was a high recruit wont have the same impact when he tries to transition to the pros.
these athletes bodies are still developing and we have a better sense when they are exiting college rather than entering it. And there are those cases (Darrius Heyward-Bey) who do not start football until late in high school or college and once they get the hang of it, could surpass those who have reacehd their maximum potential despite having played football all their life
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Old 05-16-2009, 05:00 PM    (permalink
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2002-Obviously Ngata at #2 was a big hit but after that it wasn't great. Its still too early to give up on Vince Young but it really needs to happen sometime soon. But overall, yes not a very good year.

2003-Doesn't have any outstanding players yet in the NFL but there is great potential. Sims, Bush, Olsen, Griffen, Nelson, Landry. All of these players are at the worst potential pro bowlers and two of the best young safeties(Landry and Griffen) came out of this year so overall not too bad.

2004-The top half of this class has some outstanding players. Obviously AD is up there at the top, but players like Keith Rivers, Glen Dorsey, Derrick Harvey(all first year players last year taken in the top 10), Zach Miller, Marshawn Lynch and CALVIN JOHNSON. AD and CJ alone make this class very good.

Overall it is tough to make projections from college to the NFL, let alone high school to the NFL. 2002 was the worst year recently but '03 and '04 were realtively good.
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Old 05-16-2009, 05:07 PM    (permalink
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wait, why wouldn't i be excited if my fav college had a sick recruiting class?

they're all gonna go to diff pro teams or not make it at all
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Old 05-16-2009, 05:32 PM    (permalink
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wait, why wouldn't i be excited if my fav college had a sick recruiting class?

they're all gonna go to diff pro teams or not make it at all
Because it's really 50/50. Florida St. the last couple of years should be just as good as USC or Florida (according to Rivals Rankings). Just looking at the 2004 class, it seems not much of those guys even made an impact in college, much less the pros.
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Old 05-16-2009, 05:40 PM    (permalink
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Guys can be extremely good college players and not have successful pro careers. It happens.
Exactly. Also, recruiting is probably even more of a toss up than the NFL draft. Kids go through huge changes phyiscally in college....
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Old 05-16-2009, 05:48 PM    (permalink
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you know we are talking about the top 100 from the about 3000 guys that actually sign loi to div1 schools. so unless you expect about 30 potential hof-ers per class it does say something. surely the effect is exagerated but scout and rivals do want to sell their goods so they make a big fuzz about it
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Old 05-16-2009, 05:49 PM    (permalink
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Exactly. Also, recruiting is probably even more of a toss up than the NFL draft. Kids go through huge changes phyiscally in college....
Yea Aaron Curry is a great example there. He was a 2 star(I think) prospect coming out of high school at 6'2 195 but four years and fifty pounds later he is the highest rated linebacker prospect out of college in a while
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Old 05-16-2009, 06:51 PM    (permalink
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you know we are talking about the top 100 from the about 3000 guys that actually sign loi to div1 schools. so unless you expect about 30 potential hof-ers per class it does say something. surely the effect is exagerated but scout and rivals do want to sell their goods so they make a big fuzz about it
Yeah I realize that. You would think they could predict talent better, However...

I can understand, it an impossible job. After all, how can you scout 20,000 potential prospects and predict how much they will grow or faster they will be?
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Old 05-16-2009, 06:52 PM    (permalink
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Julio Jones will certainly add to that slim total here pretty soon.
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Old 05-16-2009, 07:03 PM    (permalink
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Because it's really 50/50. Florida St. the last couple of years should be just as good as USC or Florida (according to Rivals Rankings). Just looking at the 2004 class, it seems not much of those guys even made an impact in college, much less the pros.
don't you think having a good class gives them a better shot though?
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Old 05-16-2009, 08:51 PM    (permalink
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don't you think having a good class gives them a better shot though?
But of course, it is something, and something is always better than nothing. Looking at the Rivals Recruit Rankings by teams in 2005, and how these teams fared in 2008:

USC Rivals Recruting Class in 2005 was #1, and in 2008 this team finished ranked #2 (You can say this recruiting class lived up to expectations)

OU #2 in 2005, and finished ranked #5 2008 (You can say this recruiting class lived up to expectations)

Florida #15 in 2005, and finished ranked #3 in 2008 (You can say this recruiting class exceeded expectations)

Utah #59 in 2005, and finished ranked #3 in 2008 (You can say this recruiting class exceeded expectations).

Tennessee, Texas A&M, Miami, Michigan, and Nebraska also had huge recruiting classes in 2005, but none did much of anything in 2008.

On the flip side, you have TCU, BYU, and Georgia Tech all had recruiting classes ranked in the bottom half of D1, but all finished in the top 25.

A good recruiting class does not seem to guarantee much of anything. It is still a coin flip at the end of the day.
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Old 05-16-2009, 09:02 PM    (permalink
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Texas also had a #1 recruiting class in 2002 I believe that led to their 05 championship, they are consistently a top 10 team but that was the strongest class probably in ten years.
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Old 05-16-2009, 09:04 PM    (permalink
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What, how highly recruited a kid is doesn't guarantee they'll beast in college or the NFL? When did this happen...
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Old 05-16-2009, 09:41 PM    (permalink
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Ngata in HOF ???????? Umm, let his career PLAY out. Now Peterson, was a Pro Football HOF'er in highschool.
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Old 05-16-2009, 10:47 PM    (permalink
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Interesting that the Vikings now have 2 #1 overalls in AP and Harvin
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Old 05-16-2009, 11:13 PM    (permalink
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But of course, it is something, and something is always better than nothing. Looking at the Rivals Recruit Rankings by teams in 2005, and how these teams fared in 2008:

USC Rivals Recruting Class in 2005 was #1, and in 2008 this team finished ranked #2 (You can say this recruiting class lived up to expectations)

OU #2 in 2005, and finished ranked #5 2008 (You can say this recruiting class lived up to expectations)

Florida #15 in 2005, and finished ranked #3 in 2008 (You can say this recruiting class exceeded expectations)

Utah #59 in 2005, and finished ranked #3 in 2008 (You can say this recruiting class exceeded expectations).

Tennessee, Texas A&M, Miami, Michigan, and Nebraska also had huge recruiting classes in 2005, but none did much of anything in 2008.

On the flip side, you have TCU, BYU, and Georgia Tech all had recruiting classes ranked in the bottom half of D1, but all finished in the top 25.

A good recruiting class does not seem to guarantee much of anything. It is still a coin flip at the end of the day.
if you have a good recruiting class (recent history) opposed to another teams bad recruiting class (recent history), i'd say the good recruting class has more than a coin flips chance of being better. maybe like a dice. give the bad recruiting class one of the numbers on it and roll.
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Old 05-16-2009, 11:19 PM    (permalink
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I was going over the Rivals Top 100 recruits through the years, and noticed few if any make it to an NFL roster. Actually very few seem to even make an impact in college.

Of the 300 players selected as the top 100 recruits coming out of high school between 2002-2004, I am only seeing 2 Potential NFL Hall of Famers, Haloti Ngata (#2 in 2002), Adriane Peterson (#1 in 2004). Still too early to comment on guys from the Rivals 2005 class.

So what's my point? Point is don't get too happy if your school got a "good" recruiting class, it does not mean jack.
This is a fairly brutal post/topic.

First, and correct me if i'm wrong, the Rival recruit list is for High School to the pros, so how they turn out in the NFL is nothing of relevance. Their is an entire draft process for the college to NFL, and even after that, many busts occur. Expecting anything from a high school list is just being dumb and has nothing to do with anything.

You are only seeing 2 potential HoF guys in that 3 year span? Sooooo, what is your point. Do you know how many people make the HoF? Do you think you are a bit premature? Let us not set our sights too high, as the HoF is a pretty unique list. Why not talk Pro Bowls or sometihng of meaning?

The lack of Rivals in the NFL and HoF means don't get excited for a good recruiting class? You have done nothing to prove that people shouldn't. The NFL doesn't matter in this instance for a college team. The fact that you put this in the NFL forum makes it even more humourous. Does a player not making it in the NFL mean that he does nothing in college? I do believe that many top college players don't translate to the NFL, even some Heisman winners. I'd be pretty excited to get them in a recruiting class.....

I may be missing something, but this doesn't make any sense to me.
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Old 05-16-2009, 11:30 PM    (permalink
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Texas also had a #1 recruiting class in 2002 I believe that led to their 05 championship, they are consistently a top 10 team but that was the strongest class probably in ten years.
and that happened with 3 of their 5 stars busting. that class was amazing, but it was pretty much VY who made that class notable.
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Old 05-17-2009, 12:05 AM    (permalink
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The percentage of five star players drafted is higher than the percentage of four star players drafted.

The percentage of four star players drafted is higher than the percentage of three star players drafted.

The percentage of three star players drafted is higher than the percentage of two star players drafted.

The percentage of two star players drafted is higher than the percentage of non-ranked players drafted.

So the guys are obviously doing something right. It's not an exact science, but for the most part higher ranked players make more impact than lower ranked players. But a few thousand players sign D-1 football scholarships each year, so of course some mistakes will be made or some players missed out on.
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Old 05-17-2009, 12:16 AM    (permalink
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I personally love when 2 & 3 "star" recruits become top 5 picks (like Curry.) I just like cheering for the underdogs I guess.
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too bad the Sea hawks are starting Hasselback and not Whitehorsest (sp)They are gonna loose any ways .
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Old 05-17-2009, 12:23 AM    (permalink
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http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/200...sted-tha/#cont

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In 2005, Rivals.com ranked 28 men as five-star football recruits. The players were the cream of the crop, the top football players in America. They signed to play for top teams across the country, from USC to Miami, Penn State to Oklahoma.

There was just one problem: Turns out they were more likely to be arrested than drafted by the NFL
Kind of interesting.
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Old 05-17-2009, 12:34 AM    (permalink
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Well, I just reread Rivals predictions for the 2009 draft and it was generally terrible.
As for predicting recruiting classes, you'd be surprised how ratings on high school prospects change quickly when one of them is suddenly sought by a number of top colleges. It is amazing how fast their ratings jump from a 2 star to a 4 or 5 star based just on who is recruiting them.
Does anybody here really think Rivals has the staff to scout a large # of high school prospects??? They rely on hype a lot more than fans realize.
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Old 05-17-2009, 12:38 AM    (permalink
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It's not so much hype as it is trust. Rivals, and fans, should trust coaching staffs to diagnose who the better players are. If a player has offers from the top schools then he likely is worthy of a high rating.

I would say coaches of many schools buy into hype more than Rivals. You would be suprised how many college coaches offer players based on their Rival's star rating.

So, basically it is a positive feedback system. Rivals buys into offer hype from coaches, and then other coaches will offer that player due to their Rivals rating.

And the whole bit about college coaches checking Rivals is not a joke, it happens.
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