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Old 01-11-2011, 06:11 AM    (permalink
eaglesalltheway
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hahhaha didnt know this thread existed. am i the only meteorologist on this site??? ;)
As in actual meteorologist? I don't work as one, but I know enough that I act as a meteorologist for all my friends and family.
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Old 01-11-2011, 06:18 AM    (permalink
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My area looks to get anywhere from 4-8" from this one. I haven't seen any somputer models yet this morning, but I'll have to check them out, but I think right around 5-6" where I live sounds right, by looking over what I saw last night. All you people in the northeast, be prepared, we may see a solid chance for snow again in a few days, as well as more opportunities (some of them being big snowstorms)the next two and a half weeks or so.
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Old 01-11-2011, 04:03 PM    (permalink
proshoota25
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As in actual meteorologist? I don't work as one, but I know enough that I act as a meteorologist for all my friends and family.
haha well thats cool man. im an actual one, but its all good that you know your stuff.
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Old 01-11-2011, 04:05 PM    (permalink
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haha well thats cool man. im an actual one, but its all good that you know your stuff.
That's nice man, if I'd ever change my mind and go to college, it'd be to become a meteorolgist.
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Old 01-12-2011, 09:57 AM    (permalink
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Florida is the only state right now without snow on the ground.

Whadup bitches

(I heard this from some twitter post, but now I'm wondering 'wait, what about Hawaii...')
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Old 01-12-2011, 12:07 PM    (permalink
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Hawaii has mountaintops with snow.
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Old 01-13-2011, 10:01 AM    (permalink
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Power knocked out for over 24 hours by the storm :/
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Old 01-23-2011, 02:32 AM    (permalink
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Power knocked out for over 24 hours by the storm :/
could possibly be another one coming middle of next week...
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Old 01-23-2011, 12:00 PM    (permalink
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could possibly be another one coming middle of next week...
Its looking pretty good right now, if you ask me. I'm going to lose a lot of people on here with what's coming up next, but you should understand this... lol.

Most of the models have been sticking pretty hard to the turn northeast since Friday, but the GFS is doing its typical BS and wavering right now. I've been watching the Candian and European models and they haven't shown much deviation in the track or timing of the storm since then (relatively speaking). Really the only thing I'm unure of right now with this storm is how much the High will be able to block the low and slow the progress of the storm, and just how much warm air will overtake the eastern side of the storm. We've had some of the coldest days recently, and its will stay that way, so I tend to believe that unless the low takes a much further western track, into new Jersey, my area (Near Allentown) will see all snow, but will be on the fringe of the mixing area. Right now I think Philly, New York, and Boston could see quite a bit of sleet as well.
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Old 01-23-2011, 12:35 PM    (permalink
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Its looking pretty good right now, if you ask me. I'm going to lose a lot of people on here with what's coming up next, but you should understand this... lol.

Most of the models have been sticking pretty hard to the turn northeast since Friday, but the GFS is doing its typical BS and wavering right now. I've been watching the Candian and European models and they haven't shown much deviation in the track or timing of the storm since then (relatively speaking). Really the only thing I'm unure of right now with this storm is how much the High will be able to block the low and slow the progress of the storm, and just how much warm air will overtake the eastern side of the storm. We've had some of the coldest days recently, and its will stay that way, so I tend to believe that unless the low takes a much further western track, into new Jersey, my area (Near Allentown) will see all snow, but will be on the fringe of the mixing area. Right now I think Philly, New York, and Boston could see quite a bit of sleet as well.
this is quite good my friend. i tend to agree with your analysis of the GFS, however, it is probably one of the more accurate models when it comes to predicting winter storms (specifically Nor'easters.) 12Z GFS run was a little different than yesterdays runs..... tracks seems to be further to the southeast, which means less snow here in central RI. let me ask you.... where on the net do you watch the Canadian and European models?
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Old 01-23-2011, 01:55 PM    (permalink
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good weather in the SF Bay Area now for a chg. in the winter rainy season, we can take a wk to dry out from the rains.

Still have to climb around the backyd. & pick up all the palm fronds that fell out of the huge palm tree in my neighbor's yd...... stupid winds.
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Old 01-23-2011, 02:10 PM    (permalink
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could possibly be another one coming middle of next week...
Yeah, we've been getting dumped on here on. Running out of places to put the stuff sort of. Lucky some of it melted off last week.
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Old 01-23-2011, 03:49 PM    (permalink
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this is quite good my friend. i tend to agree with your analysis of the GFS, however, it is probably one of the more accurate models when it comes to predicting winter storms (specifically Nor'easters.) 12Z GFS run was a little different than yesterdays runs..... tracks seems to be further to the southeast, which means less snow here in central RI. let me ask you.... where on the net do you watch the Canadian and European models?
You see, I like the GFS, its just that when you get around 5-3 days out from the storms arrival, it tends to waver back and forth a lot. I think its greatest strength (having lots of information that it pulls together) is its greatest weakness in that time frame. When its a week or so out, and the data is pointing towards a higher possibility of a system, it'll pick up on that, but in that time frame, there are always little tidbits that seem to pull it off course until the few days before the storm arrives, when the data is in agreement more. Its good for figuring out approximately where and when these types of storms will be a week in advance or so, loses it in that 5-3 day prior time frame, then dials everything right back in when its getting closer to when it'll arrive. Tomorrow I expect it will start to gravitate more toward the Nor'easter again, as last I checked the Canadian model, it was still right in the zone for what would bring a real solid Nor'easter in my area.

I get the Canadian off of here:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model.../global_e.html

And the European off of here:
http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmw...expanddiv=menu

I check them out on other sites as well, but those two are my favorites for each.
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Old 01-23-2011, 06:16 PM    (permalink
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You see, I like the GFS, its just that when you get around 5-3 days out from the storms arrival, it tends to waver back and forth a lot. I think its greatest strength (having lots of information that it pulls together) is its greatest weakness in that time frame. When its a week or so out, and the data is pointing towards a higher possibility of a system, it'll pick up on that, but in that time frame, there are always little tidbits that seem to pull it off course until the few days before the storm arrives, when the data is in agreement more. Its good for figuring out approximately where and when these types of storms will be a week in advance or so, loses it in that 5-3 day prior time frame, then dials everything right back in when its getting closer to when it'll arrive. Tomorrow I expect it will start to gravitate more toward the Nor'easter again, as last I checked the Canadian model, it was still right in the zone for what would bring a real solid Nor'easter in my area.

I get the Canadian off of here:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model.../global_e.html

And the European off of here:
http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmw...expanddiv=menu

I check them out on other sites as well, but those two are my favorites for each.
totally agree with everything you said. you have a pretty extensive knowledge of the models. i just wanted to see what sites u used for those because I am starting my own weather website that has a forecasting section. Ill make sure when I am done to give you a link.
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Old 01-23-2011, 06:49 PM    (permalink
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totally agree with everything you said. you have a pretty extensive knowledge of the models. i just wanted to see what sites u used for those because I am starting my own weather website that has a forecasting section. Ill make sure when I am done to give you a link.
Thanks man, I would definitely appreciate that link when its up.
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Old 01-23-2011, 10:33 PM    (permalink
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GFS/GEM/ECMWF models in agreement about BIG storm on Wednesday.... NAM seems to be the outlier at this point. We shall see as we get closer to Wednesday.

^^^This is as of 00Z Monday (Technically, Sunday night).... Southern New England might get slammed
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Old 01-23-2011, 11:19 PM    (permalink
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GFS/GEM/ECMWF models in agreement about BIG storm on Wednesday.... NAM seems to be the outlier at this point. We shall see as we get closer to Wednesday.

^^^This is as of 00Z Monday (Technically, Sunday night).... Southern New England might get slammed
I just finished looking over these, looks preety good for big snow near my area as well. Some of the areas that have been getting dumped on should see a lot more, but also the areas that haven't seen the brunt of the storms (my area and a little to the west) look to be in the areas that'll get slammed pretty hard. Maybe not as much as southern NE like you said, but for the most part, we've been spared big snow in this area, and its looking right now that if it would indeed stay all snow, my area could see a foot or more, with the worst areas getting 18" and up if it comes together right.

As weird as this sounds, this storm will actually be a little easier predict than most of the earlier storms this winter (particualrly the Christmas storm), as there shouldn't be those concentrated, narrow bands that storm had. It looks like it'll be a wider swath of the heavier snow. And with the blocking highs in place slowing it down, the places that get dumped on are really going to get hit hard.
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Old 01-23-2011, 11:36 PM    (permalink
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More snow for Southern New England? Crap. I'm one of the few people that isn't completely sick of it yet. It's been as bad as I can remember here. More snow could be fun provided there's no class for people I hang out with and I have a bountiful supply of video games and crucial amenities.

The sleet storm last week was the worst of it. Driving in that thing is a nightmare even for someone who has been conditioned to just push the accelerator in four wheel drive and not give a ****. Almost got in two accidents that day and at one point completely fish tailed because some dickwad ran me into a significantly patch of slush/ice.

But yeah, how bad we talking for all this fellas? Blizzard conditions?
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Old 01-23-2011, 11:55 PM    (permalink
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More snow for Southern New England? Crap. I'm one of the few people that isn't completely sick of it yet. It's been as bad as I can remember here. More snow could be fun provided there's no class for people I hang out with and I have a bountiful supply of video games and crucial amenities.

The sleet storm last week was the worst of it. Driving in that thing is a nightmare even for someone who has been conditioned to just push the accelerator in four wheel drive and not give a ****. Almost got in two accidents that day and at one point completely fish tailed because some dickwad ran me into a significantly patch of slush/ice.

But yeah, how bad we talking for all this fellas? Blizzard conditions?
where in Mass are you? well blizzard conditions are certainly possible... im just wondering if winds will be sustained at 35 mph.... but some intense snowfall looks to be the case (not if ur near cape cod and over towards the new beford area... some mixing will go on there possibily, cutting down on accumulations....) over a foot is certainly a possibility
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Old 01-24-2011, 01:02 AM    (permalink
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where in Mass are you? well blizzard conditions are certainly possible... im just wondering if winds will be sustained at 35 mph.... but some intense snowfall looks to be the case (not if ur near cape cod and over towards the new beford area... some mixing will go on there possibily, cutting down on accumulations....) over a foot is certainly a possibility
Stone throws away from Gillette.
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Old 01-24-2011, 01:22 AM    (permalink
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Stone throws away from Gillette.
ohhhh hahha well then you should get owned like i will here in RI
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Old 01-24-2011, 08:20 AM    (permalink
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Real feel temp. is 0 right now for me. The couple minutes I had to be outside so far today have been brutal, don't know how you Midwest guys do it so often.
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Old 01-24-2011, 08:29 AM    (permalink
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NO MOAR COLD AND SNOW.
can't wait to walk to class in...oh, it's 3 degrees outside? awesome
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Old 01-24-2011, 11:01 AM    (permalink
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It's so ******* cold here today that it was hard as hell to get out of bed. Just not worth it being outside.
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Old 01-24-2011, 11:04 AM    (permalink
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It's supposed to be in the mid to high 70s all week.

I love California.
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