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Old 11-03-2009, 04:52 PM    (permalink
MetSox17
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Default Pick your top 5 locks (with spread).

Pick your top five locks of the week, with a little information on why. Might even help win yourself some straight cash homey (For those that are old enough to partake in completely legal betting).


Chiefs +6.5 @ Jaguars

Ravens -3 @ Bungles

Texans +9 @ Colts

Redskins +10 @ Falcons

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers

Cardinals +3 @ Bears

Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots

Panthers +13.5 @ Saints

Lions +10 @ Seahawks

Titans +4 @ 49ers

Chargers +4.5 @ Giants

Cowboys +3 @ Eagles

Steelers -3 @ Broncos
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Old 11-03-2009, 04:57 PM    (permalink
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Default

I'm liking Houston, Seattle, Cincinnati and Green Bay.

Houston always plays Indianapolis tough. Moats showed he can run, plus they have Slaton, Schaub and AJ. I'm liking their chances to keep it within 9.

The Lions and Buccaneers are just terrible and i'm expecting them to lose big.

The Bungles beat Baltimore on the road last week, with Benson coming off a great game and an extra week to prepare, i'm liking them to actually straight up beat Baltimore.
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Old 11-03-2009, 05:06 PM    (permalink
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MetSox17 View Post
Pick your top five locks of the week, with a little information on why. Might even help win yourself some straight cash homey (For those that are old enough to partake in completely legal betting).


Chiefs +6.5 @ Jaguars

Ravens -3 @ Bungles

Texans +9 @ Colts

Redskins +10 @ Falcons

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers

Cardinals +3 @ Bears

Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots

Panthers +13.5 @ Saints

Lions +10 @ Seahawks

Titans +4 @ 49ers

Chargers +4.5 @ Giants

Cowboys +3 @ Eagles

Steelers -3 @ Broncos
I'll take:

Seahawks -10 vs Detroit. Seattle beats up on patsies at home and Detroit is terrible.

Ravens -3 vs Cinci. I think the Bengals will feel the loss of Odom upfront and like the Ravens here, think they could be on a little run.

Texans +9 at Indy. Colts arent going 16-0 but they may win here, in a close one. I like the shift to Moats at RB, take Houston.

Saints -13.5 vs Panthers. A lot of points but Carolina is terrible despite beating the cards. 30-10 final.

Steelers -3 at Denver. The Broncos are returning to earth i think and will go Steelers by a TD.
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Old 11-03-2009, 05:10 PM    (permalink
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Default

Michael Turner ran all over the Saints, i wouldn't touch that game. DeAngelo and J-Stew might shred them up and at the very least keep it close.
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Old 11-03-2009, 05:23 PM    (permalink
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Default

Falcons, Packers, Cards, Phins and Eagles. Eagles are hte only won I'm iffy on but I think they'll win by a touchdown so I think they're a solid bet. Falcons and Packers should rape, I like the cards to beat the bears and the phins will keep it close if not win.
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.

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Old 11-03-2009, 05:32 PM    (permalink
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Default

Texans +9 @ Colts
With the way theyve been manhandling their opponents the Colts should be a way bigger fav at home

Redskins +10 @ Falcons
Any team should be a 10 point fav against the skins the way they are playing. Falcons can score, skins just cant.

Cardinals +3 @ Bears
Bears are undefeated at home and Cards are capable of losing to carolina

Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots
Reverse lock, would touch this game
Panthers +13.5 @ Saints
Reverse lock, would touch this game
Titans +4 @ 49ers
Titans won their first game, whooptiedoo, still doesnt mean that the niners will take care of biz at home
Cowboys +3 @ Eagles
Eagles are the better team and they play at home and they just tanked a boatload of confidence in new york
Steelers -3 @ Broncos
The broncos finally showed that they werent that good after all
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Old 11-03-2009, 05:37 PM    (permalink
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Default

Panthers - +13.5 is huge. They got the run game going last week and I think theyl be able to establish that presence against New Orleans aswell.

Broncos +3 - Undefeated team at home plus points? I'll take that everyday.

Dolphins +10.5 - The Dolphins will run the ball all day to keep Brady and company off the field, similar to what they did to the Colts. Pats win, but not by 10.

Giants -4.5 - I like the Giants to rebound and have a big win over San Diego.

Bengals +3 - I like the bengals to beat a suspect Ravens secondary. That defense can't stop Palmer and company at home.
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Old 11-03-2009, 05:45 PM    (permalink
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Default

No one else sees the Packers -10 versus the Bucs as the lock of the week????
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Old 11-03-2009, 05:49 PM    (permalink
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Default

Why the Ravens the favorite in this spread? The Bengals have beat the Ravens once already, have a better record, are coming off a bye week and they're 2 weeks removed from a completely dominating game.

I've always said divisional games are the toughest games to play in the regular season, regardless of talent, but seriously?
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Old 11-03-2009, 06:33 PM    (permalink
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People putting faith in Ryan Moats is pretty funny... Guess where the Bills run defense ranks in the league?
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Old 11-03-2009, 08:06 PM    (permalink
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Default

Why are the Broncos all of a sudden bad? No one thought they were a 16-0 team. Yeah it was a bad loss, but losses happen. And 3 weeks into the season, 90% of this board said the Ravens were bar none the best team in the league.
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Old 11-03-2009, 08:44 PM    (permalink
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Default

Quote:
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No one else sees the Packers -10 versus the Bucs as the lock of the week????
ahem...ragnarok

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Falcons, Packers, Cards, Phins and Eagles. Eagles are hte only won I'm iffy on but I think they'll win by a touchdown so I think they're a solid bet. Falcons and Packers should rape, I like the cards to beat the bears and the phins will keep it close if not win.
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
Quote:
Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JBCX View Post
Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 11-03-2009, 09:22 PM    (permalink
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Green Bay.

Bet big.
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Old 11-03-2009, 11:34 PM    (permalink
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Default

Green Bay for sure.

Probably do a 2 liner and 3 liner.

Two liner big money
Packers -10
Falcons -10

Three liner moderate money
49ers -4
Bengals +3 (seriously, I mean we could lose for sure but I don't see how we aren't favorite here)... Also let me add I hate betting on the Bengals.
Steelers -3... Not huge on this one but I think the Steelers are rolling and Denver is coming back down to earth a little bit, not that that's a bad thing. Still not really pumped about this one.
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Old 11-03-2009, 11:52 PM    (permalink
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Default

Ravens -3 @ Bengals
I'll take the 3 and the straight out win with the Ravens here. I think beating down Denver makes them click.

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers
C'mon they are the Bucs. Aaron Rodgers will pick them apart after going to the limit against the Vikes, he might actually not see a pass rush all day. Blow out

Cardinals +3 @ Bears
Give me the bears and the striaght win, this one I take with trepidation

Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots
Dolphins keep it close

Steelers -3 @ Broncos
Mile High, one of the best home stadiums in the league, I'll take the Broncos to win this one.
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Old 11-03-2009, 11:52 PM    (permalink
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I like the Niners' chances against the Titans because our run defense is so sick. That, and we're at home.
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Old 11-04-2009, 01:17 AM    (permalink
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There are a lot of lines this week that just look ridiculous to me.


I don't think New England has done near enough to be a double digit favorite against someone like Miami, who has proven to not be a cakewalk by any means, they should keep that game close.

Why the Ravens are -3 on the road in Cincy is beyond me. Cincy already beat them and are coming off a bye.

Pretty much the same thing with the Steelers/Broncos. Denver loses one game and now they're 3 point underdogs at home?

Texans/Colts line is too high, I think that game is a shootout, something like 35-31 Colts. Houston's offense has been to good for that many points.

Gimme the Packers, because the Bucs suck.

And I'm taking a sixth because I can't leave that 49ers/Titans game alone. San Fran hung with the Colts last week and now they're playing one of the worst teams in football at home. With that defense against Vince Young I'll take the Niners.

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Old 11-04-2009, 01:45 AM    (permalink
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I'm liking Houston, Seattle, Cincinnati and Green Bay.
I'm probably gonna put in a 4-game parlay with this ^^, and then put twice the amount i put on the parlay on Green Bay -10 against Tampa. Sounds like it makes sense.
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Old 11-04-2009, 04:23 AM    (permalink
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Parlay bets are really stupid to make. It's great when you get lucky and it's that hole in 1 shot. The safer bet is just to make each bet and if you hit 3 out of 4, you get 2x your money back instead of losing it all because of one freak game.
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Old 11-04-2009, 06:18 AM    (permalink
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Redskins @ Falcons (-10)
Packers (-10) @ Buccaneers
Titans @ 49ers (-4)

If I was a betting man, these wold be 3 easy picks to make.

Steelers (-3) @ Broncos - The Steelers are playing well and I think they will easily cover the spread.

Chiefs (+6.5) @ Jaguars - Jacksonville is not that much better than KC.
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Old 11-04-2009, 09:03 AM    (permalink
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Texans +9 @ Colts : Texans to beat the spread if not win. The 9ers showed the Colts can be had, disguised their pass rush vs Indy & gave Manning fits, threw him off his game bigtime. The Colts pass blocking isn't the same as before, they had to sub an UDFA o-linemen to keep Manning upright thru 4 qtrs. Houston s/b studying the SF game videos, they have enough defensive talent to do the same.

Redskins @ Falcons (-10) : Atlanta can cover 10 points on the Redskins, no o-line, no QB, no secondary, now now TE. Hey, that Dan Snyder can sure build a contender can't he?

Titans @ 49ers (-4) : Tennessee on a roll of.... uhh, one win. The 9ers lost Clements to a broken shoulderblade + an OL starter last wk vs indy, both out 6 wks.

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers : No pick. Be careful here, GB will win but they can't protect Rodgers worth a damn.

Too bad Cleveland is off this wk. Whoever they play next with whatever the spread, Cleveland will tank. Their idiot owner fired everybody this wk. in their FO but Mangini, guarantees they will beat the Lions, Rams or Tampa to the #1 pick. St. Louis is now only the 2nd most demoralized team in the NFL.

Last edited by LizardState : 11-04-2009 at 10:13 AM.
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Old 11-04-2009, 09:31 AM    (permalink
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Texans +9 @ Colts - Texans always play the Colts hard and they have the O to keep up.


Cardinals +3 @ Bears

The Cards have a decent chance to WIN without the points yeah it is in the windy city but I don't trust the bears secondary.

Lions +10 @ Seahawks

Homer throwing money away but Lofa is out I think Walter Jones is out if Truf is out and Calvin is back they should keep it close.

Titans +4 @ 49ers

CJ = MJ

Steelers -3 @ Broncos

Although they play well the steelers O-Line is going to have real trouble against DOOM! which means that the Steelers will have to keep guys in and lets not forget Champ and B-Dawk in the secondary.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 11-04-2009, 09:55 AM    (permalink
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Be bold. Win big. Parlay the Falcons & Packers.

Redskins +10 @ Falcons - I will be shocked if this one doesn't climb to 14.5 by gameday. Skins in the Georgia dome without Cooley who has been their most consistent weapon - it's going to be ugly.

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers - Buccs are so bad they won't be able to capitalize on the bye week.

Chiefs +6.5 @ Jaguars - The Chiefs are not very good and MJD should tear them up.

Lions +10 @ Seahawks - Nothing fixes a team's problems like a date with the Lions. See: Rams, St. Louis.

Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots - 2 big wins where Brady looked like his old self again to boost confidence and a bye week . . . yeah, the Phins won't keep this one close.


Just for the fun of it, here are my picks on the rest:
Cardinals +3 @ Bears
Panthers +13.5 @ Saints
Titans +4 @ 49ers
Chargers +4.5 @ Giants
Cowboys +3 @ Eagles
Steelers -3 @ Broncos
Ravens -3 @ Bungles
Texans +9 @ Colts
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Old 11-04-2009, 09:58 AM    (permalink
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I think the Phins game is a trap. The Phins made the Colts into a less than a touchdown game I think they can do the same to the pats as well.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 11-04-2009, 10:03 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by broth223 View Post
I think the Phins game is a trap. The Phins made the Colts into a less than a touchdown game I think they can do the same to the pats as well.
I think they can, but with NE coming off the bye I don't think they will.

But, fwiw, I only think the Falcons & Packers are true locks. The thread forced me to pick 5. ;)
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