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Old 11-04-2009, 12:53 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by tuan33 View Post
Parlay bets are really stupid to make. It's great when you get lucky and it's that hole in 1 shot. The safer bet is just to make each bet and if you hit 3 out of 4, you get 2x your money back instead of losing it all because of one freak game.
I'm betting small on parlays. Three weeks in a row i've hit three teamers, so it isn't as difficult as you're saying. Plus, if you're that unsure about it go with a progressive. It's the same deal.

When you're pretty confident on a few games, getting 6:1, 10:1 and 25:1 on your money is too good to pass up.
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Old 11-04-2009, 01:51 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FlyingElvis
Dolphins +10.5 @ Patriots - 2 big wins where Brady looked like his old self again to boost confidence and a bye week . . . yeah, the Phins won't keep this one close.
He played possibly the two worst secondaries in the NFL.
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Old 11-04-2009, 01:55 PM    (permalink
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He played possibly the two worst secondaries in the NFL.
I didn't mean he looked like his old self in terms of stats. He was missing badly on his passes downfield through the first 4 games regardless of DB quality. In the last 2 games he was on target again.
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Old 11-04-2009, 02:43 PM    (permalink
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He played possibly the two worst secondaries in the NFL.
Tampa Bay actually has the better pass defense than Miami. Tampa's is ranked 15th against the pass and Miami is ranked 21st against the pass.
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Old 11-04-2009, 02:54 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by P-L View Post
Tampa Bay actually has the better pass defense than Miami. Tampa's is ranked 15th against the pass and Miami is ranked 21st against the pass.

Hmmmm...I was under the impression that Tampa's secondary was terrible. Some of that can be contributed to the fact that Tampa is always behind and teams don't have to throw on them late though.
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Old 11-04-2009, 03:47 PM    (permalink
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Teams have been forced to pass on Miami. Their run defense was dominating at the begining of the season.

Playing the Dolphins should pose a bigger challenge to brady than the Titans or the Bucs, still, Brady's gonna torch them.
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Old 11-04-2009, 03:49 PM    (permalink
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I think the bye week might pull it off against the browns.
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Old 11-04-2009, 04:02 PM    (permalink
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I forgot the word "ranked" in there, between "better" and "pass." My point was not supposed to be that Tampa had a better secondary than Miami, just that Miami's is not very good either.
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Old 11-04-2009, 04:45 PM    (permalink
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Hey hey hey, no thread hijacking!

Anyone betting CFB?

OU is -6 against Nebraska. Get it while it's hot.

Okie Lite is -7.5 versus Iowa State.
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Old 11-04-2009, 04:46 PM    (permalink
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Oregon -7 vs. Stanford. Cake.
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Old 11-04-2009, 04:53 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Sniper View Post
Oregon -7 vs. Stanford. Cake.
You have no idea how much i've been cracking my head over that game. It seems soooo easy, but i can also see how Stanford pulls an upset, or at least close to an upset and Oregon wins in the last second.

I got ****** over also for not putting my bet in on time because the line about a day and a half ago was -6.

Point is, it's a road game after a huge win for Oregon, and the Pac-10 is whack.
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Old 11-04-2009, 05:03 PM    (permalink
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Michigan -6.5 vs. Purdue.
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Old 11-04-2009, 05:13 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Tebow_Nation View Post
I think the bye week might pull it off against the browns.
I heard that the browns got +14 points against the bye.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 11-04-2009, 05:16 PM    (permalink
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Chargers +4.5

The Giants are struggling and giving up big games to QBs, Philip Rivers should be able to take advantage of this.

Lions +10

I like the points here, for some reason I don't see the Seahawks generating much offense.

49ers -4

I only give 4 and I get the 49ers (who could conceivably be 5-2) against the Titans (who could conceivably be 0-7)? I'll take it.

Steelers -3

Didn't we see this game last week? At least something similar to it.

Colts -9

The Colts have never lost to the Texans in Indy, and the Texans defense isn't performing all that well.
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Old 11-04-2009, 05:17 PM    (permalink
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I heard that the browns got +14 points against the bye.
Bye easily covers.
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Old 11-05-2009, 10:25 AM    (permalink
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Watch out for the Falcons-Redskins game. The Skins are coming off of a bye and could pose a problem for the Falcons offense (just like the Bears and Cowboys did, when they had their bye to prepare for us). Our defense will shut down Washington's offense, but it might be a hard fought game, only because WAS had the bye.

Other games I like:

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers - Packers offense might be able to cover the spread against a Allen-less defense.

Panthers +13.5 @ Saints - We have a winner. The Saints starting DT is out for 6-8 weeks and Turner was able to gash them up the middle. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will have big days. If that isn't enough, look at the last times the Panthers went to New Orleans; John Fox hasn't lost to the Saints in an away game during his stay in CAR.

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* 2008: Panthers, 33-31 (FG with :01 remaining)
* 2007: Panthers, 16-13 (FG with :00 remaining)
* 2006: Panthers, 31-21
* 2005: Panthers, 27-10 (at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La.)
* 2004: Panthers, 32-21
* 2003: Panthers, 23-20 (FG with 10:25 left in OT)
* 2002: Panthers, 10-6 (eliminated Saints from playoffs)
Lions +10 @ Seahawks - Lions aren't covering this.

Titans +4 @ 49ers - The 49ers might be able to win big against the terrible Titans.

Chargers +4.5 @ Giants - Giants are really banged up and it shows in their play. They are having a hard time stopping an offense and I expect Chargers to put up a good fight, and maybe win.
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Old 11-05-2009, 02:08 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, that Carolina/New Orleans line is starting to look tempting. Carolina isn't as bad as I thought they were, they might be in the WC race at the end of the year and they should be able to run the ball on the Saints without Ellis.
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Old 11-07-2009, 04:15 PM    (permalink
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You have no idea how much i've been cracking my head over that game. It seems soooo easy, but i can also see how Stanford pulls an upset, or at least close to an upset and Oregon wins in the last second.

I got ****** over also for not putting my bet in on time because the line about a day and a half ago was -6.

Point is, it's a road game after a huge win for Oregon, and the Pac-10 is whack.
Hope no one bet on this game.
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Old 11-07-2009, 05:37 PM    (permalink
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My pick five for this week was..

Texans +9
@ Colts

Redskins +10 @ Falcons

Packers -10 @ Buccaneers

Lions +10 @ Seahawks

Titans +4 @ 49ers
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Old 11-07-2009, 05:39 PM    (permalink
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Hope no one bet on this game.
Ha, I r dumb.
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Old 11-07-2009, 08:41 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Babylon View Post
I'll take:

Seahawks -10 vs Detroit. Seattle beats up on patsies at home and Detroit is terrible.

Ravens -3 vs Cinci. I think the Bengals will feel the loss of Odom upfront and like the Ravens here, think they could be on a little run.

Texans +9 at Indy. Colts arent going 16-0 but they may win here, in a close one. I like the shift to Moats at RB, take Houston.

Saints -13.5 vs Panthers. A lot of points but Carolina is terrible despite beating the cards. 30-10 final.

Steelers -3 at Denver. The Broncos are returning to earth i think and will go Steelers by a TD.
Even when Denver sucked they've always had our number in Denver. An improved OL will help but their offense is the exact style that annihilates our defense. The reliable short passing game.
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Old 11-08-2009, 05:49 AM    (permalink
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put your scratch on these.

i do unit bets using $25 units...current lines per sportsbook.

baltimore -3...3 units ($75)
the ravens are undefeated with gaither playing....plus the defense seems to have gotten their swagger back, bad news for benson....statement game.

s.f. -4...1 unit ($25)
i like the s.f. run defense led by p. willy against a titans team that is heavily reliant on the run...its worth some action.

s.f./tenn UNDER 40.5....3 units ($75)
i dont think tenn score more than 10 points and s.f. isnt going to excactly light it up either.

dallas ML (+120)...1 unit ($25)
a lil scratch on the premier game...picking dallas to win str8 up 25 against 30.

pitt/denver UNDER 40...2 units ($50)
i like how both defenses match up...denvers pass defense matches up perfectly with the steelers scheme and pitts run defense is bad news for a denver team that loves to run the ball.
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Old 11-08-2009, 04:15 PM    (permalink
MetSox17
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Ouch bro on that Ravens game. I thought the Bengals were good enough to win, and they were getting points, at home, against a team they had already beaten. I stayed away from that game.

The Packers ****** me though. Bad.
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Old 11-08-2009, 04:17 PM    (permalink
umphrey
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I thought people would lose money on that game. The Packers were embarrassing today. Horrible play on the line on both sides of the game and our GM and coach are losing my confidence more every week.
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Old 11-08-2009, 04:25 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rosebud View Post
Falcons, Packers, Cards, Phins and Eagles. Eagles are hte only won I'm iffy on but I think they'll win by a touchdown so I think they're a solid bet. Falcons and Packers should rape, I like the cards to beat the bears and the phins will keep it close if not win.
And this is why I no longer am allowed to gamble. Would've put most of my money on Green Bay, then won most of it back with the other games and then put big money on Philly to get me back in the black for the week, which would guarantee Dallas gets the W.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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