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View Poll Results: What do you do?
Take the guaranteed points. 50 53.76%
Run the clock down and attempt the Field Goal. 43 46.24%
Voters: 93. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-15-2009, 10:29 PM    (permalink
gsorace
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The Jags coaching staff told MJD to do it because the Jets were going to let him score to get the ball back with some time left. Its hard to argue against it because it worked.
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Old 11-15-2009, 11:34 PM    (permalink
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In the end, I think the Jets would tell you that THEY wished that he would have taken the points.

And that's what matters.
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Old 11-15-2009, 11:36 PM    (permalink
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All I know is that if MJD took that TD I would have won in fantasy. Instead, it looks like i'm gonna lose by .78 points

So **** YOU MJD
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:21 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by JETS5128 View Post
All I know is that if MJD took that TD I would have won in fantasy. Instead, it looks like i'm gonna lose by .78 points

So **** YOU MJD
If it makes you feel better he apologized to his fantasy owners.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:26 AM    (permalink
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If it makes you feel better he apologized to his fantasy owners.
That's awful nice of him, I'm still waiting for my entire fantasy team to apologize to me for last season.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:48 AM    (permalink
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I can't believe the voting really is leaning towards take the points. I absolutely loved this play. Sure you would take your defense versus a rookie, but he is at home and any number of fluky things can happen (receiver gets open in space, penalties, you never know). MJD did what was needed, take the ball and he knew they were giving him daylight and you just run down the clock. If the kicker misses the field goal, then your cursed, but I'll take the near extra point type of kick, and the guaranteed win then a TD leaving the opposing team about 2 mins to score. I think this voting is being heavily influenced by fantasy points.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:48 AM    (permalink
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I'd take the points in that situation. If you have the lead, then it's a different story.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:50 AM    (permalink
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I think you have to do what the other team would hate for you to do. This includes wasting the remaining amount of time on the clock.
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:03 AM    (permalink
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I loved the move personally. I thought it was the right call. Scobee won't miss from that close and being a fan of a team that loses a lot in the fourth quarter, I take the option for a team to come back on you out of the equation completely.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:08 AM    (permalink
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I think you go for the touchdown if you have a proven defense, Panthers, Redskins, Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, someone who can defend the pass, go for the TD. Don't risk the fumble or botched snap.

**** defense, like JAX, run down the clock and kick it.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:19 AM    (permalink
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I'm a giants fan so I'm used to having to worry about all FGs with Tynes, so I take the points and trust my D/Special Teams not to give up a fluke play.
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Old 11-16-2009, 07:55 AM    (permalink
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MJD made the right decision. As some people have said, there was a much greater chance of the Jets driving down the field for a touchdown than the Jaguars messing up on a 20 yard field goal.
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Old 11-16-2009, 08:14 AM    (permalink
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You know who else tried to trust their defense to not blow it?

The Bengals.

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Old 11-16-2009, 08:41 AM    (permalink
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I saw the situation. I was OK with MJD kneeling at the 2. I was OK with the first kneel down by Garrard. I thought the final kneel down was dumb. I would have tried to QB sneak or MJD punch it in at least once. Relying on the FG was risky.
This. I would have done it this way. Because the 2nd kneel down was with what?? 40 something seconds left. I would have tried to get it in then. And if not successful, then you kick.
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Old 11-16-2009, 08:57 AM    (permalink
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You know who else tried to trust their defense to not blow it?

The Bengals.
Different situation. We were down by 6, a field goal was never an option. We had to score or we would have lost anyways.
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Old 11-16-2009, 09:50 AM    (permalink
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They were debating this on ESPN, I was curious as to which side everyone here was on. For those of you who don't know what happened:

Score is: New York - 22, Jacksonville - 21. With under two minutes to go on 2nd & 6 from the 10 yard line Maurice Jones-Drew gets the carry and races towards the endzone. It looks like he has an easy touchdown, but instead he dives down at the one yard line to keep the clock running, as the Jets had no more time outs left. After two kneel downs by David Garrard, Josh Scobee kicked a 21-yard field goal as time expired.

Ok, so here is the question. What would you have done in that situation? Do you take the guaranteed 6 points (7 with the PAT) and give the Jets about 1:30 to work with? Or do you run the clock down and possibly risk a mishandled snap, a shanked kick, or a blocked kick?

I guess I would have scored the TD and go for 2 to make it a 29-22 game. Either way if you miss the 2 points, it's still 27-22, and they have to score a TD anyways to win it. But I would play to win and scoring puts me up, and gives them the burden with a rookie QB to march the length of the field and score.

I don't do what Jones-Drew does, because anything can happen with a FG. For instance, with our team Tynes sometimes misses those easy chip shots. Last week Feagles couldn't the snap down and settled for Tynes to kick a FG, so we couldn't get 3 points. So because of stupid stuff like that, I am going for the TD, and put the burden on them with their young QB to win it.

I am not risking it with a FG. If we miss it, then we lose the game basically. Play to win the game! Then give the ball back to the Jets and let them try to win the game.
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:42 AM    (permalink
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I can see both sides. But, if a situation like that is even up for debate, i'd always lean towards getting the points.

I'm curious though if the coach instructed him to do that, or if MJD just did it on his own.
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:53 AM    (permalink
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Take the FG. It's a glorified extra point.
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:16 AM    (permalink
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It comes down to this: Do you trust your field goal kicker to hit an extra point, or do you trust the worst pass defense in the NFL to stop an offense that had been hot for most of the second half?

The answer is a no-brainer to me.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:14 PM    (permalink
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Take the knee and go for the win without giving the other team a shot.

The Jets had JUST driven down the field to take the lead, and had been moving the ball fairly well in the second half. It's not even worth the risk considering how bad the Jags needed the win.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:13 PM    (permalink
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Jacksonville did the right thing. Just like the Pats game, its all about the percentages. Taking bad snaps and holds into account, NFL teams convert extra points (which that fg basically was), somewhere between 98 and 99 percent of the time. Unless you think they have a better chance than 98 percent of stopping the Jets drive the field with 1:30 left?
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:19 PM    (permalink
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Someone at the Jaguars message board tallied up all the drives the Jaguars have allowed this year that lasted under 2 minutes (if MJD had scored there would have been ~1:45 on the clock)

"Week 2 against Arizona, 2:13 to go in the first half with the Cards on their own 32, Warner throws a TD pass with a minute left on the clock.

Week 2 against Arizona, 7:32 to go in the third quarter with the Cards starting with great field position (our 3, Warner throws the TD with 5:35 to go - just under two minutes.

Week 3 against those pesky Texans, 3:12 to go in the first quarter with the Texans just inside Jaguars territory, Schaub throws for a TD in just over a minute.

Week 4 against the Titans, 1:56 to go in the third quarter with the Titans at their own 20. Touchdown comes on a Collins pass with 26 seconds left in the quarter.

Week 5 against the Seahawks, 6:15 to go in the first half with the Seahawks at our 48, Hasselbeck throws the TD with 4:50 to go in the half.

Week 5 against the Seahawks, 3:06 to go in the first half with the Seahawks at their own 39. In under a minute, Hasselbeck hits Burleson for a 44 yard TD.

Week 5 against who was it again? 11:20 to go in the third quarter, Seahawks at our 32, Hasselbeck passes it in with 10:14 left to play (just over a minute this time).

Week 8 against the winless Titans, 59 seconds to go in the third quarter, Titans at their own 5. First play of the fourth quarter sees Chris Johnson steam for a long TD.

Week 9 against the Chiefs, 4:26 left in the game, KC on their own 29. And with 2:41 left on the clock, Cassel hits Chambers for a TD.

Week 9 against the Chiefs, they get the onside kick after the preceding TD with 2:30 on the clock at their own 32. There's still 1:10 to go when Cassel connects with Chambers for six again.

Week 10 against the Jets, with 3:05 left in the first quarter, Jets get the ball on their own 39. And with 1:14 left, Sanchez throws a TD pass to Cotchery.

By my count that's eleven TDs under two minutes against the Jaguars' defence this season, including one in that very game. Does that field goal still look riskier?"
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:58 PM    (permalink
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The FG was an extra point basically. The odds on missing an extra point are ridiculously low.

Case in point:

Josh Scobee - Career PAT: 178/181 = 98.3%

So by taking the 20 yd FG with no time left you essentially give yourself around a 98% chance to win.

What are the chances of the Jets driving for a TD had MJD scored? Obviously you can't put a number to that but I would say its easily over a 2% chance.

In the end, the Jags probably win no matter what the decision there. However, if you are playing an elite offense (Ind, Saints, etc...), than taking the FG is by far the better move.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:11 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by The Unseen View Post
Someone at the Jaguars message board tallied up all the drives the Jaguars have allowed this year that lasted under 2 minutes (if MJD had scored there would have been ~1:45 on the clock)

"Week 2 against Arizona, 2:13 to go in the first half with the Cards on their own 32, Warner throws a TD pass with a minute left on the clock.

Week 2 against Arizona, 7:32 to go in the third quarter with the Cards starting with great field position (our 3, Warner throws the TD with 5:35 to go - just under two minutes.

Week 3 against those pesky Texans, 3:12 to go in the first quarter with the Texans just inside Jaguars territory, Schaub throws for a TD in just over a minute.

Week 4 against the Titans, 1:56 to go in the third quarter with the Titans at their own 20. Touchdown comes on a Collins pass with 26 seconds left in the quarter.

Week 5 against the Seahawks, 6:15 to go in the first half with the Seahawks at our 48, Hasselbeck throws the TD with 4:50 to go in the half.

Week 5 against the Seahawks, 3:06 to go in the first half with the Seahawks at their own 39. In under a minute, Hasselbeck hits Burleson for a 44 yard TD.

Week 5 against who was it again? 11:20 to go in the third quarter, Seahawks at our 32, Hasselbeck passes it in with 10:14 left to play (just over a minute this time).

Week 8 against the winless Titans, 59 seconds to go in the third quarter, Titans at their own 5. First play of the fourth quarter sees Chris Johnson steam for a long TD.

Week 9 against the Chiefs, 4:26 left in the game, KC on their own 29. And with 2:41 left on the clock, Cassel hits Chambers for a TD.

Week 9 against the Chiefs, they get the onside kick after the preceding TD with 2:30 on the clock at their own 32. There's still 1:10 to go when Cassel connects with Chambers for six again.

Week 10 against the Jets, with 3:05 left in the first quarter, Jets get the ball on their own 39. And with 1:14 left, Sanchez throws a TD pass to Cotchery.

By my count that's eleven TDs under two minutes against the Jaguars' defence this season, including one in that very game. Does that field goal still look riskier?"
Terrific post, no justification like past failures.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:20 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
i love the comparisons to an XP. because on most extra points, teams go all out for the block, because they could win the game, right? or is this just a silly comparison based solely on the distance that has utterly no relevance to what was actually going on during the game?
The stats are the stats there. That is what coaches use. XP rarely ever get blocked because of the distance and the ability to loft the ball in the air on the kick because of not really having to drive it. The real worry there is a botched snap/hold.

By your logic you could also say a kicker is more likely to make that field goal because he is more focused on a game winning kick than being all nonchalant on an XP.

Last edited by Jughead10 : 11-16-2009 at 02:23 PM.
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