MLB Discussion Thread

[Borat]

Silly Jonathan Sanchez. Don't you know you have to throw a shutout to get a no-decision for the Giants? These goofy kids these days.

[Scotty D]

Jose Bautista - 14 home runs

[holt_bruce81]

Can someone explain the BABIP to me? everytime a pitcher has a low BABIP he's considered to be "lucky" but what if the pitchers a guy who pitches to contact?

I just get confused when guys throw out stats I have no idea what they mean. I remember last year people were saying Chris Carpenter was getting "lucky" and it was soooo frustrating.

[Wally03]

BABIP = batting average for balls put in play. Essentially the percentage of the balls that are put in play in fair territory that result in hits.

If someone is talking BABIP and implying the pitcher is getting lucky, they are saying that the pitcher is getting lucky and that an abnormal amount of the balls put in play are resulting in outs.

[Chucky]

Originally Posted by Scotty D

Jose Bautista - 14 home runs

Yup, I mean teh guy got hot at the end of last year but in no way did I expect it to carry over. The Jays may not keep it up but they are sure are fun to watch.

[ATLDirtyBirds]

Originally Posted by holt_bruce81

Can someone explain the BABIP to me? everytime a pitcher has a low BABIP he's considered to be "lucky" but what if the pitchers a guy who pitches to contact?

I just get confused when guys throw out stats I have no idea what they mean. I remember last year people were saying Chris Carpenter was getting "lucky" and it was soooo frustrating.

A guy who pitches to contact still doesn't have any control on what's going on behind him defensively.

[P-L]

Originally Posted by holt_bruce81

Can someone explain the BABIP to me? everytime a pitcher has a low BABIP he's considered to be "lucky" but what if the pitchers a guy who pitches to contact?

I just get confused when guys throw out stats I have no idea what they mean. I remember last year people were saying Chris Carpenter was getting "lucky" and it was soooo frustrating.

Statistically, about 70% of balls hit into play should be converted into outs. That means most hitters should hit around .300 on balls hit into play and pitchers should have around a .300 average against on balls hit into play. Anything more than 20-ish points lower usually means a pitcher/hitter is lucky, plays with a great defense, or both. While anything more than 20-ish points higher usually means a pitcher/hitter is unlucky or plays with a poor defense.

EDIT: Go to Fangraphs and start clicking on different pitchers' statistics pages and you'll see. Almost all pitchers will have a career BABIP in the high .290's or low .300's. That's not a coincidence.

[Hines]

Originally Posted by Chucky

Yup, I mean teh guy got hot at the end of last year but in no way did I expect it to carry over. The Jays may not keep it up but they are sure are fun to watch.

I wished Bautista hit like that in Pittsburgh.

[Giantsfan1080]

Nice series for the Mets. Some very tense moments but I'll take it.

[nobodyinparticular]

Originally Posted by P-L

Statistically, about 70% of balls hit into play should be converted into outs. That means most hitters should hit around .300 on balls hit into play and pitchers should have around a .300 average against on balls hit into play. Anything more than 20-ish points lower usually means a pitcher/hitter is lucky, plays with a great defense, or both. While anything more than 20-ish points higher usually means a pitcher/hitter is unlucky or plays with a poor defense.

EDIT: Go to Fangraphs and start clicking on different pitchers' statistics pages and you'll see. Almost all pitchers will have a career BABIP in the high .290's or low .300's. That's not a coincidence.

Everything that P-L said is true.

However, let's also keep in mind there are a VERY few pitchers who (for whatever reason) have lower standard BABIPs than the average. I believe Greg Maddux is one of them, but we are talking small portion size any given year--like 3 or 4 active pitchers at any given time.

[fenikz]

Upton has a career .343 BABIP

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Originally Posted by fenikz

Upton has a career .343 BABIP

It's different for batters. Upton is extremely fast, Crawford is extremely fast, has a career .331 BABIP, etc.

[Jughead10]

Rod Carew had a BAPIP of .359. Great hitters find holes. They know how to hit balls over the infield and dump before or between the outfielders. They also keep square the ball up and don't often get underneath it to create easy outs. Weak pop ups don't find holes, lines drives and ground balls can.

You guys take the human aspect out of it too much. Not everyone should have a .300 BABIP with those higher or lower being lucky or unlucky.

[nobodyinparticular]

Originally Posted by Tampa 2 4 life

It's different for batters. Upton is extremely fast, Crawford is extremely fast, has a career .331 BABIP, etc.

For batters, speed plays into it as well as hit-type. Batters with more skill are able to hit more line drives which have a much higher bit percentage. Groundballs have higher percentages than fly balls and of course infield flies have almost no expected success rate.

Voros McCracken (pioneer for this type of study) gives a lot more leeway to batters in terms of controlling BABIP (again, based on hit-type and speed, not "placing the ball where you want it"). For pitchers, however, there are groundball tendencies and flyball tendencies. Groundballers are likely to have a slightly higher BABIP but should have a lower HR/9 while flyballers will not have as many balls drop in for hits but as a result of so many balls in the air they will allow a higher percentage of HRs.

Summary: Batters and pitchers are not on the same scale when evaluating BABIP.

[nobodyinparticular]

Originally Posted by Jughead10

Rod Carew had a BAPIP of .359. Great hitters find holes. They know how to hit balls over the infield and dump before or between the outfielders. They also keep square the ball up and don't often get underneath it to create easy outs. Weak pop ups don't find holes, lines drives and ground balls can.

You guys take the human aspect out of it too much. Not everyone should have a .300 BABIP with those higher or lower being lucky or unlucky.

No, Rod Carew was an incredible line drive hitter. Line drives have a more than 70% chance of falling in for a base hit. That's why his career BABIP is so high.

He wasn't some sort of "sniper" with the bat, he was an incredible hitter who made great contact, squaring up the ball very well which would result in all those line drives.

[tjsunstein]

I hate the last two games. Almost no-hit by Dice-K, shut down by Wakefield, and Halladay gets rocked.

[Hines]

Someone posted on the Pirates message board that the beat writer for PPG said management is getting tired of Aki and Clement and changes will be made, which includes Tabata and Neil Walker coming up. That'd be awesome. Now let's bring up Lincoln as well.

[sbh15]

i'm going to predict boston's "hot streak" ends tonight. tampa bay :(

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Originally Posted by sbh15

i'm going to predict boston's "hot streak" ends tonight. tampa bay :(

You'll probably beat Davis, if Lackey starts Wednesday, we'll beat him. So Lester Vs. Shields is going to be the important one.

[tjsunstein]

We need to seperate ourselves as much as possible from the Mets in the coming series so we can rest Halladay. He's on pace for 290 innings and already has 4 CG. Manuel needs to settle down and they need to talk one on one regarding who is in charge. Manuel has made mound visits time and time again where he would turn around and go back to the dugout leaving Halladay on the bump. There is no reason for him to be throwing 130+ pitch complete games against the Pirates in the middle of May.

The fans cheer every time Manuel leaves him out there but they have to realize the long term effect. We've worked him more than he's used to already and off the top of my head, he hasn't been to the playoffs. I want his arm to be electric in Sept. and Oct. and what we're doing right now doesn't spell that. He looked tired Sunday. It also doesn't help that the Red Sox have seen him before.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Originally Posted by tjsunstein

We need to seperate ourselves as much as possible from the Mets in the coming series so we can rest Halladay. He's on pace for 290 innings and already has 4 CG. Manuel needs to settle down and they need to talk one on one regarding who is in charge. Manuel has made mound visits time and time again where he would turn around and go back to the dugout leaving Halladay on the bump. There is no reason for him to be throwing 130+ pitch complete games against the Pirates in the middle of May.

The fans cheer every time Manuel leaves him out there but they have to realize the long term effect. We've worked him more than he's used to already and off the top of my head, he hasn't been to the playoffs. I want his arm to be electric in Sept. and Oct. and what we're doing right now doesn't spell that. He looked tired Sunday. It also doesn't help that the Red Sox have seen him before.

Halladay has traditionally been pretty good at handling abuse in his career, but what his arm is being put through is just absurd. I hope Philadelphia likes their one great year of Halladay.

[Brodeur]

Originally Posted by Tampa 2 4 life

Halladay has traditionally been pretty good at handling abuse in his career, but what his arm is being put through is just absurd. I hope Philadelphia likes their one great year of Halladay.

It's not really that big of a deal. Halladay (and to a lesser extent, Verlander) can handle that kind of abuse.

[Tampa 2 4 life]

Originally Posted by Brodeur

It's not really that big of a deal. Halladay (and to a lesser extent, Verlander) can handle that kind of abuse.

There's a breaking point somewhere. Apparently the phillies are willing to find it.

[iowatreat54]

It's like the Brewers-CC situation. Apparently the Phillies are under the impression they only get Halladay for 12 or so starts...

Which is awful news for my fantasy team. :(

[Brodeur]

Originally Posted by Tampa 2 4 life

There's a breaking point somewhere. Apparently the phillies are willing to find it.

He's averaging less pitches per start this year than Verlander has the last 2 years.