MLB Discussion Thread - Page 650

Smooth Criminal · 07-16-2011, 09:47 AM

It doesn't matter what forces in the world are helping the Pirates, they are in first place and that's really all anyone should be talking about.

Santonio10 · 07-16-2011, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brodeur

It's lucky because he allows a lot of homers, doesn't strike out a lot of people, has a ridiculously low BABIP, and an absurdly high LOB%. You may need to be introduced to sabermetrics my friend.

I don't see how a low BABIP is lucky when he's pitching well? Yeah he does give up home runs, but he does it when no one is on base. As long as he gets the outs when he needs them then I don't see how he is lucky. His WHIP, ERA and opponent BA are good. Those are the primary stats I look at.

Im not huge into baseball stats. I just think Karstens is pitching well and that he deserves some credit. He's obviously not going to pitch this well all year but it's one hell of a dominant stretch IMO.

Karstens has been great when we need him. He's one of the unsung heros of the Pirates ever since he got to Pittsburgh.

Santonio10 · 07-16-2011, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATLDirtyBirds

Oh my......

That was sarcasm haha. I didn't really mean that Verlander and Hanrahan were lucky if thats what you're referring to.

Santonio10 · 07-16-2011, 11:28 AM

As "lucky" as Karstens appears to be, Paul Maholm is equally as unlucky

DeepThreat · 07-16-2011, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Santonio10

As "lucky" as Karstens appears to be, Paul Maholm is equally as unlucky

No, since Maholm's BABIP is actually below average...

If a pitcher has a BABIP below .300, it means he's getting lucky with the location of where the ball is being hit. It's almost impossible to consistently have a BABIP below .300.

Brodeur · 07-16-2011, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeepThreat

No, since Maholm's BABIP is actually below average...

If a pitcher has a BABIP below .300, it means he's getting lucky with the location of where the ball is being hit. It's almost impossible to consistently have a BABIP below .300.

That's not exactly true. If a pitcher can limit his line drive percentage consistently, or if he has a very good defense combined with ground ball tendencies, he can easily get his BABIP at .280 (see Greg Maddux),

Quote:

Originally Posted by Santonio10

I don't see how a low BABIP is lucky when he's pitching well? Yeah he does give up home runs, but he does it when no one is on base. As long as he gets the outs when he needs them then I don't see how he is lucky. His WHIP, ERA and opponent BA are good. Those are the primary stats I look at.

Im not huge into baseball stats. I just think Karstens is pitching well and that he deserves some credit. He's obviously not going to pitch this well all year but it's one hell of a dominant stretch IMO.

Karstens has been great when we need him. He's one of the unsung heros of the Pirates ever since he got to Pittsburgh.

That's not how BABIP works. Karstens line drive percentage is in line with his career average, and his ground ball percentage is only slightly better than his career average. While he does have an inflated HR/FB%, he's also limited his infield fly balls, so that's pretty much the explanation. As for WHIP, ERA, and opponents BA, they aren't very good measuring sticks.

Some pitchers have the ability to out perform their peripherals because they induce weak contact, and Karstens is not one of those guys. If you want an example of that, look at Jair Jurrjens (although he isn't this good either).

DeepThreat · 07-16-2011, 12:27 PM

Obviously there are exceptions to every rule, but what I said is typically true. As you said, by analyzing Karstens's LD% and such, you can tell he's just getting lucky.

ATLDirtyBirds · 07-16-2011, 12:41 PM

Jeff is also sporting a nice 2.14 differential in ERA and FIP.

Borat · 07-16-2011, 01:50 PM

Breakout your calculators and spreadsheets, it's a good ol' fashioned SABR-orgy.

fenikz · 07-16-2011, 02:01 PM

ya i love sabr stuff now, sucks that t2 was such a douche or i probably would of cared about them earlier

Brodeur · 07-16-2011, 02:03 PM

That's why I'm the Saber leader now, because I'm slightly less douchey than T2 and I get more in depth.

Stash · 07-16-2011, 02:28 PM

I kinda liked T2...

bearsfan_51 · 07-16-2011, 02:31 PM

It's a wonder you suck so bad at fantasy Broduer, honestly.

Hurricanes25 · 07-16-2011, 02:45 PM

I was once a "hater" of all of the sabr stats but I've come around to them. The only stat I don't like is UZR. Sabr is really useful for pitchers and batters. I just don't like the fielding stats.

ElectricEye · 07-16-2011, 02:50 PM

I like SABR stuff, but I don't think it's the end all be all. There's room for some traditional metrics and scouting in baseball, but modern stats have a tendency to tell you a whole lot more. As far as Karstens goes, he's having a nice year regardless of luck, but the numbers say he's getting a ton of breaks and it's hard to dispute that really.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hurricanes25

I was once a "hater" of all of the sabr stats but I've come around to them. The only stat I don't like is UZR. Sabr is really useful for pitchers and batters. I just don't like the fielding stats.

They're getting a little bit better, but I find it hard to imagine that stats will ever be able to quantify defense perfectly. They've gotten to the point where they're useful to look at but need to be taken with a grain of salt.

ATLDirtyBirds · 07-16-2011, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brodeur

That's why I'm the Saber leader now, because I'm slightly less douchey than T2 and I get more in depth.

You are only the leader because I'm too lazy, and T2>you.

Brodeur · 07-16-2011, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bearsfan_51

It's a wonder you suck so bad at fantasy Broduer, honestly.

I'm not very good at differentiating fantasy and reality when it comes to baseball. I'm much better at football.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hurricanes25

I was once a "hater" of all of the sabr stats but I've come around to them. The only stat I don't like is UZR. Sabr is really useful for pitchers and batters. I just don't like the fielding stats.

UZR is alright, it's a good companion with +/- and Zone Rating.

Damix · 07-16-2011, 03:36 PM

UZR is still crap, it just happens to be one of the better pieces of crap, so we make due.

Brodeur · 07-16-2011, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damix

UZR is still crap, it just happens to be one of the better pieces of crap, so we make due.

No stat will ever make Derek Jeter a good fielder.

Hurricanes25 · 07-16-2011, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brodeur

No stat will ever make Derek Jeter a good fielder.

Jeter's range is pretty bad, there's no denying that. Jeter just makes the plays that he should, something that a guy like Eduardo Nunez hasn't done is the last couple of weeks. Does that make Jeter a good defender? No, but he is dependable.

DeepThreat · 07-17-2011, 12:55 AM

So I make a tweet about Chris Carpenter complaining and some guy comes back at me that I'm just mad because he shut down my favorite player (not true) and that I should try to get his name right (I did). Also called me worthless. Seems like a nice and intelligent guy.

Docta · 07-17-2011, 02:26 AM

Saber is very useful in fantasy. Just make sure your pitchers have a K/9 over 7, and a BB/9 under 4. None of their xFIP's should be over 4 either. Don't just give up on a pitcher if they have a high ERA. Morrow and Greinke are perfect examples for that.

Batting is a little more tricky, since it depends on what you need. If you just need a better team, look at wOBA. If you need SBs, look at OBP too, since they'll get more opportunities if it's high.

DeepThreat · 07-17-2011, 01:52 PM

Ryan Theriot is getting suspended for a while.

ElectricEye · 07-17-2011, 02:03 PM

**** Sunday Night baseball. Night games on Sunday should be illegal. I actually have to do something with my day besides watch baseball now...

yo123 · 07-17-2011, 03:04 PM

Jim Thome just hit a 490 foot home run. Holy ****.