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Old 07-16-2011, 09:47 AM    (permalink
Smooth Criminal
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It doesn't matter what forces in the world are helping the Pirates, they are in first place and that's really all anyone should be talking about.
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Old 07-16-2011, 11:24 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Brodeur View Post
It's lucky because he allows a lot of homers, doesn't strike out a lot of people, has a ridiculously low BABIP, and an absurdly high LOB%. You may need to be introduced to sabermetrics my friend.
I don't see how a low BABIP is lucky when he's pitching well? Yeah he does give up home runs, but he does it when no one is on base. As long as he gets the outs when he needs them then I don't see how he is lucky. His WHIP, ERA and opponent BA are good. Those are the primary stats I look at.

Im not huge into baseball stats. I just think Karstens is pitching well and that he deserves some credit. He's obviously not going to pitch this well all year but it's one hell of a dominant stretch IMO.

Karstens has been great when we need him. He's one of the unsung heros of the Pirates ever since he got to Pittsburgh.
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Old 07-16-2011, 11:25 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by ATLDirtyBirds View Post
Oh my......
That was sarcasm haha. I didn't really mean that Verlander and Hanrahan were lucky if thats what you're referring to.
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Old 07-16-2011, 11:28 AM    (permalink
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As "lucky" as Karstens appears to be, Paul Maholm is equally as unlucky
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Old 07-16-2011, 11:35 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Santonio10 View Post
As "lucky" as Karstens appears to be, Paul Maholm is equally as unlucky
No, since Maholm's BABIP is actually below average...

If a pitcher has a BABIP below .300, it means he's getting lucky with the location of where the ball is being hit. It's almost impossible to consistently have a BABIP below .300.
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Old 07-16-2011, 12:09 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by DeepThreat View Post
No, since Maholm's BABIP is actually below average...

If a pitcher has a BABIP below .300, it means he's getting lucky with the location of where the ball is being hit. It's almost impossible to consistently have a BABIP below .300.
That's not exactly true. If a pitcher can limit his line drive percentage consistently, or if he has a very good defense combined with ground ball tendencies, he can easily get his BABIP at .280 (see Greg Maddux),

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Originally Posted by Santonio10 View Post
I don't see how a low BABIP is lucky when he's pitching well? Yeah he does give up home runs, but he does it when no one is on base. As long as he gets the outs when he needs them then I don't see how he is lucky. His WHIP, ERA and opponent BA are good. Those are the primary stats I look at.

Im not huge into baseball stats. I just think Karstens is pitching well and that he deserves some credit. He's obviously not going to pitch this well all year but it's one hell of a dominant stretch IMO.

Karstens has been great when we need him. He's one of the unsung heros of the Pirates ever since he got to Pittsburgh.
That's not how BABIP works. Karstens line drive percentage is in line with his career average, and his ground ball percentage is only slightly better than his career average. While he does have an inflated HR/FB%, he's also limited his infield fly balls, so that's pretty much the explanation. As for WHIP, ERA, and opponents BA, they aren't very good measuring sticks.

Some pitchers have the ability to out perform their peripherals because they induce weak contact, and Karstens is not one of those guys. If you want an example of that, look at Jair Jurrjens (although he isn't this good either).
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Old 07-16-2011, 12:27 PM    (permalink
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Obviously there are exceptions to every rule, but what I said is typically true. As you said, by analyzing Karstens's LD% and such, you can tell he's just getting lucky.
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Old 07-16-2011, 12:41 PM    (permalink
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Jeff is also sporting a nice 2.14 differential in ERA and FIP.
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Old 07-16-2011, 01:50 PM    (permalink
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Breakout your calculators and spreadsheets, it's a good ol' fashioned SABR-orgy.
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Old 07-16-2011, 02:01 PM    (permalink
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ya i love sabr stuff now, sucks that t2 was such a douche or i probably would of cared about them earlier
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Old 07-16-2011, 02:03 PM    (permalink
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That's why I'm the Saber leader now, because I'm slightly less douchey than T2 and I get more in depth.
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Old 07-16-2011, 02:28 PM    (permalink
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I kinda liked T2...
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Old 07-16-2011, 02:31 PM    (permalink
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It's a wonder you suck so bad at fantasy Broduer, honestly.
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Old 07-16-2011, 02:45 PM    (permalink
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I was once a "hater" of all of the sabr stats but I've come around to them. The only stat I don't like is UZR. Sabr is really useful for pitchers and batters. I just don't like the fielding stats.
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Old 07-16-2011, 02:50 PM    (permalink
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I like SABR stuff, but I don't think it's the end all be all. There's room for some traditional metrics and scouting in baseball, but modern stats have a tendency to tell you a whole lot more. As far as Karstens goes, he's having a nice year regardless of luck, but the numbers say he's getting a ton of breaks and it's hard to dispute that really.


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I was once a "hater" of all of the sabr stats but I've come around to them. The only stat I don't like is UZR. Sabr is really useful for pitchers and batters. I just don't like the fielding stats.
They're getting a little bit better, but I find it hard to imagine that stats will ever be able to quantify defense perfectly. They've gotten to the point where they're useful to look at but need to be taken with a grain of salt.
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Old 07-16-2011, 03:29 PM    (permalink
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That's why I'm the Saber leader now, because I'm slightly less douchey than T2 and I get more in depth.
You are only the leader because I'm too lazy, and T2>you.
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Old 07-16-2011, 03:30 PM    (permalink
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It's a wonder you suck so bad at fantasy Broduer, honestly.
I'm not very good at differentiating fantasy and reality when it comes to baseball. I'm much better at football.

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I was once a "hater" of all of the sabr stats but I've come around to them. The only stat I don't like is UZR. Sabr is really useful for pitchers and batters. I just don't like the fielding stats.
UZR is alright, it's a good companion with +/- and Zone Rating.
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Old 07-16-2011, 03:36 PM    (permalink
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UZR is still crap, it just happens to be one of the better pieces of crap, so we make due.
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Old 07-16-2011, 03:48 PM    (permalink
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UZR is still crap, it just happens to be one of the better pieces of crap, so we make due.
No stat will ever make Derek Jeter a good fielder.
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Old 07-16-2011, 04:00 PM    (permalink
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No stat will ever make Derek Jeter a good fielder.
Jeter's range is pretty bad, there's no denying that. Jeter just makes the plays that he should, something that a guy like Eduardo Nunez hasn't done is the last couple of weeks. Does that make Jeter a good defender? No, but he is dependable.
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Old 07-17-2011, 12:55 AM    (permalink
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So I make a tweet about Chris Carpenter complaining and some guy comes back at me that I'm just mad because he shut down my favorite player (not true) and that I should try to get his name right (I did). Also called me worthless. Seems like a nice and intelligent guy.
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Old 07-17-2011, 02:26 AM    (permalink
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Saber is very useful in fantasy. Just make sure your pitchers have a K/9 over 7, and a BB/9 under 4. None of their xFIP's should be over 4 either. Don't just give up on a pitcher if they have a high ERA. Morrow and Greinke are perfect examples for that.

Batting is a little more tricky, since it depends on what you need. If you just need a better team, look at wOBA. If you need SBs, look at OBP too, since they'll get more opportunities if it's high.
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Old 07-17-2011, 01:52 PM    (permalink
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Ryan Theriot is getting suspended for a while.
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Quote:
<@JBond> And Dg, you'd waste it on corndogs
<@JBond> So you get no 5 dollars
<+DG> how is buy one get one free wasting?
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<+njx9> i'm pretty sure your people still eat boots in north korea, bantx. they don't know what vegetables are.
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Old 07-17-2011, 02:03 PM    (permalink
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**** Sunday Night baseball. Night games on Sunday should be illegal. I actually have to do something with my day besides watch baseball now...
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Old 07-17-2011, 03:04 PM    (permalink
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Jim Thome just hit a 490 foot home run. Holy ****.
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