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Old 05-03-2010, 10:44 PM    (permalink
Shiver
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Default NFL Truths 2K10

It took three hours and many days of conceptual thoughts. I wasn't able to do it last year, but I felt it is too important to skip out on.

The McNabb Era, Not Terribly Missed


I've said it and will say it again: The Eagles fleeced the Redskins. Trading for a 33 year old QB, whose stats have largely benefited from a favorable offense now goes to a team that has a worse O-Line, next to no weapons and a backfield that conjures back memories of Madden 2006, it just strikes me as a bad decision. Even if the Redskins benefit in the near term it will not pay off in the long run. My take is that it won't pay off in either way.

I like what Philadelphia has done. They have weeded out the aging talent from the NFCCG runs of yesteryear and replaced them admirably. Kevin Kolb is in a similar situation that we've seen in San Diego with Philip Rivers and in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers. I really like Kolb's game and I liked him as a prospect. He had the talent and the mental game, but he needed time and excellent coaching to adjust to a pro offense. (a reason I don't like Sam Bradford to St Louis, good player, bad situation for him) The coaching/system is there, the weapons are definitely there, in a year's time no one in Philly will shed a tear for Donovan F. McNabb.

There will be struggles I would imagine, but it is best to move forward as a franchise. You have to see what you have in tow. McNabb is 33 years young and injury prone. His talents will start to erode. Keeping him around would be an act of denial. If only my Falcons were honest in their evaluation of Michael Vick then we wouldn't have traded Matt Schaub.

Texans.... I know, I know, but everything is set up for them

Houston should have won at least 12 games last year, but they had no power RB who could hold on to the ball and their kicker missed eleven FG, mostly at the worst moment. Like Arizona in '08, they are due to finally break through. The emergence of Arian Foster will allow their offense to finish off those drives that went so poorly last year. Steve Slaton and Chris Brown took points off the boards, look at their margin of defeat last year:
  • 7
  • 7
  • 3
  • 3
  • 7
  • 5
Other than the Jets, they were in every single game. Key fumbles, missed field goals, poor red zone rushing performances all cost them those victories. Any uptick in rushing production, field goal accuracy and overall better luck and the Texans win 11-12 games. Anyone who saw Arian Foster in the last three games of the 2009 season and in the preseason game against Dallas knows the kind of talent this guy has. But even if he isn't effective, all he has to do is hold on to the ball and the Texans add a couple of wins.

Aaron Rodgers, MVP

He is one of two Quarterbacks ever to have 30 touchdowns with 7 interceptions (another link between him and Favre). He did so with tremendous weapons around him, but with an awful O-Line that led to a high sack total for the first half of the season. Once they got healthy on the line that is when Rodgers really took off. So far the line looks good, they added talent and depth there and the path is open for Rodgers to dominate. The emergence of Jermichael Finley also cannot be ignored. He is now Rodgers' #1 target, putting up 44 catches for 560 yards, four touchdowns in the final eight games last year, including the dominant 6-159 game in the playoffs. He has taken over the slot role from Donald Driver and at 6'4" 245 he is someone who cannot be defended. He may not get the acclaim because he hasn't been around, but it is a matter of when, not if, Rodgers racks up MVP trophies and eventually a Vince Lombardi. (not sure if the latter is in store, have questions about the defense)

Oakland? Either I'm a genius or I'm going mad.

If there is one great thing about the NFL it is that every team can turn it around and contend any given year. The Oakland Raiders had a strange off-season. Usually I would have expected Al Davis to fire Tom Cable, to blindly hold onto Jamarcus Russell and to draft terribly. The opposite has occurred. Tom Cable stays in place, which is good because I think highly of him, and he adds Hue Jackson who has an amazing track record. Jason Campbell now goes to a team that probably has more talent than the one he came from.

The Raiders played very well at times, beating Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. All they were missing was even decent QB play; they have also improved their O-Line and LB corp. They have an easy path, San Diego probably has a lock on the division, but Kansas City and Denver aren't the most intimidating opponents. I think they match up very well and can put in a 9-10 win season.

Pete Carrol Will Break The Curse

Most college coaches do not work out, but I think this time things will change. Carrol is an NFL guy, he knows how the game works at this level. That separates him from someone like Petrino or Saban, who were never head coaches in the NFL. I love what they have done this off-season; adding LenDale White gives them a power back, Russell Okung will replace Walter Jones, Earl Thomas gives them a playmaker in the secondary that they have not had and by acquiring Whitehurst they have taken a good risk with high upside. They still have too many holes, but I think things are going very well to start the new administration out on the path of rebuilding.

What is this? The 90s?

My two favorites in the NFC going into 2010 is Dallas and Green Bay. Conjuring back thoughts of the classic match-ups between Favre and Aikman, just now it is between Rodgers and Romo. Both teams have been soundly constructed and have balance on both sides of the ball. This is the odds on favorite for the NFCCG in my estimation. Minnesota had a dream season, a bubble that is due to burst; New Orleans is still there but they seem to oscillate between great and 7-9.

Rookie Analysis

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jahvid Best. He has as much talent as Spiller, is in a better situation with no competition for touches and will avoid injuries to provide a gem of a rookie season.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Sean Weatherspoon. Steps right in, next to Curtis Lofton, and instantly makes an impact in a division with a lot of emphasis on the RB/TE. Stud 4-3 OLB are out of vogue, but ones like Cushing last year and Weatherspoon this year show how important the position can be.

Steven Jackson is better and more productive than Adrian Peterson
I wonder why no one else has noticed this? Adrian Peterson is a fine player, but I can't help but think that he is getting overrated because this is a draft site and Adrian Peterson was an amazing prospect. Steven Jackson has out-performed him, consistently, on a terrible team with no help. Why does he not get the credit he deserves? I feel bad for him, by the time Smith, Bradford and whatever WR they get next year grow up he will be out of his prime. One of the greats of his era, even if he won't be remembered as such.

Potpourri
  • Baltimore has everything lined up for them, but I worry about the health of key players like Lewis, Reed and Boldin. If they hold up I think they are the class of the AFC.
  • Alex Smith was on the right track in 2006 and was a solid QB in 2009. His feud with Nolan derailed his career, but I still think he can get it done. With Crabtree and Davis, an improved line and Frank Gore, there is nothing to hold him back.
  • Barrett Ruud is very unheralded and now that he has McCoy and Price in front of him (Ryan Sims was their best DT last year!) he will get it done. Pay attention to him. By the way, the NFC South probably has the best MLBs of any division: Vilma, Beason, Ruud and Lofton is tough to beat.
  • Giving Julius Peppers his big money deal was probably a bad idea, trading everything away for Jay Cutler and teaming him with Mike Martz wasn't a great idea either.
  • My three favorite Defensive Tackles: Darnell Dockett, Jay Ratliff and Haloti Ngata.
  • I would still take Nnamdi Asomugha as the top corner.
  • Look at the stats and you will find that Philip Rivers has been the best QB in the NFL the past two years.
  • Chris Johnson will not be able to handle the workload, yet they have no better option. He has a huge injury red flag for me.
  • Atlanta basically has two rookie classes this year, with Jerry and Moore coming back from injury. The defense will be much younger and faster than last year. Remember, Atlanta nearly beat New Orleans twice last year. They can unseat the Saints, provided the young talent play up to expected levels.
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Old 05-03-2010, 10:59 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Shiver View Post
It took three hours and many days of conceptual thoughts. I wasn't able to do it last year, but I felt it is too important to skip out on.
Oakland? Either I'm a genius or I'm going mad.

The Raiders played very well at times, beating San Diego, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. All they were missing was even decent QB play; they have also improved their O-Line and LB corp. They have an easy path, San Diego probably has a lock on the division, but Kansas City and Denver aren't the most intimidating opponents. I think they match up very well and can put in a 9-10 win season.
beating San Diego? The last time the Oakland Raiders beat the San Diego Chargers was on September 28, 2003.
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Old 05-03-2010, 10:59 PM    (permalink
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Healthy Saints will run the division and are definitely better than Dallas and GB.

Just pray they get injured, that's your only hope guy.
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Old 05-03-2010, 11:01 PM    (permalink
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Raiders didnt beat the Chargers but we did beat the Eagles so you can swap them
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Old 05-03-2010, 11:05 PM    (permalink
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Raiders didnt beat the Chargers but we did beat the Eagles so you can swap them


Whoops, my bad. The Raiders played San Diego tough, but lost two close ones. My point still stands.
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Old 05-03-2010, 11:10 PM    (permalink
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Johnson and Ringer?

Offensive rookie ends up being Ryan Matthews.
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Old 05-03-2010, 11:11 PM    (permalink
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Healthy Saints will run the division and are definitely better than Dallas and GB.

Just pray they get injured, that's your only hope guy.
MADDEN CURSE.
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Old 05-03-2010, 11:13 PM    (permalink
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If there is one great thing about the NFL it is that every team can turn it around and contend any given year. The Oakland Raiders had a strange off-season. Usually I would have expected Al Davis to fire Tom Cable, to blindly hold onto Jamarcus Russell and to draft terribly. The opposite has occurred. Tom Cable stays in place, which is good because I think highly of him, and he adds Hue Jackson who has an amazing track record. Jason Campbell now goes to a team that probably has more talent than the one he came from.

The Raiders played very well at times, beating Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. All they were missing was even decent QB play; they have also improved their O-Line and LB corp. They have an easy path, San Diego probably has a lock on the division, but Kansas City and Denver aren't the most intimidating opponents. I think they match up very well and can put in a 9-10 win season.
I'm going to counter this, because this is becoming the new "Texans gonna go somewhere" line. For every step forward they make (a quality draft), they take a big step back (Jamarcus Russel continues to collect money).
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Old 05-03-2010, 11:15 PM    (permalink
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Johnson and Ringer?

Offensive rookie ends up being Ryan Matthews.

I am not really a fan of Matthews, but his situation is definitely in his favor. I question San Diego's run blocking and commitment to the run. I really thought he was over-drafted based on his NFL-translatable talent.
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Old 05-04-2010, 12:09 AM    (permalink
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The McNabb Era, Not Terribly Missed

I don't disagree with the logic overall, but a second round pick for a proven, very good QB seems like a worthwhile risk to me. I'm also not sure the "long run" was considered in this trade. Snider rarely seems to consider that. lol

Oakland? Either I'm a genius or I'm going mad.

Completely agree.

Division to watch: AFC East

The Patriots D ranked 11th overall with no leadership and some serious holes in the front 7 and 5th overall in points per game. While I do have some concerns, I'd say the "End of the Dynasty" talk is a bit premature. The run game ranked 12th overall (ypg) so that isn't quite the gloom and doom generally advertised, either. But I like the fact that everyone has decided the Pats run is done. Giving BB some underdog status to work with always makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside.

Pete Carrol Will Break The Curse

Hahahaaahaaahaaaaa!!! I'll believe it when I see it.

What is this? The 90s?

Completely agree with this one, too. Rodgers is incredible and a whole lot of fun to watch. The Saints have too many things working against them this year with the SuperBowl win & resulting schedule, their usual back and forth record year to year and the divisional worst to first tradition.

Rookie Analysis

Both very reasonable choices.

Steven Jackson is better and more productive than Adrian Peterson

SJax is the best back in the league. It's a shame the Rams have been so bad the last few years so nobody gets to see much of him.
Great post. Comments on the main points in bold.
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Old 05-04-2010, 12:24 AM    (permalink
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The Patriots defense ranked well, but look at their schedule. They were hardly challenged at all, facing anemic offenses one after another. I dare you to find a team with an easier schedule against opposing offenses. The three legitimate offenses they went up against they gave up 34+ points. If I am San Diego or Indianapolis I don't fear New England. Now that Miami has Marshall and New York has Holmes, if Henne and Sanchez improve, would you fear NE's defense? I wouldn't.
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Old 05-04-2010, 12:30 AM    (permalink
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I heart Barrett Ruud love.
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Old 05-04-2010, 01:10 AM    (permalink
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There are definitely legitimate concerns for the Pats D and it starts with the pass rush - or lack thereof. I said many times last season that their rank was deceiving, but to ignore it or write it off as all bad offenses is a bad idea. Getting off the field on 3rd down was the biggest problem, honestly.

There's an awful lot of young players gaining experience over the last 2 years on that defense. Losing the 2 defensive leaders in Bru and Harrison in the same season Seymour was shipped out hurts, too. But I think assuming there's no way the team can rebound from that is premature.

Like I said, call it the end. I love the results I see when Belichick's teams are considered the dogs.
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Old 05-04-2010, 02:20 AM    (permalink
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Pairing Cutler with Martz is less risky than pairing him with Ron Turner
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Old 05-04-2010, 02:27 AM    (permalink
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Pairing Cutler with Martz is less risky than pairing him with Ron Turner

True, the upside is there, but Martz' system and his ideology has always led to carelessness with the football; look at Marc Bulger's stats for proof. I think Jay Cutler needs his Favre-Holmgren. He needs someone to get in his face and chew him out for ******* up. Martz seems like an enabler. It won't be any worse than Ron Turner though.
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Old 05-04-2010, 02:36 AM    (permalink
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i think dumping Ron Turner was the biggest move. Just look at how the offense played when his favorite target was starting and we didnt call those weird ass screens anymore but started with rollouts and PAs
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Old 05-04-2010, 03:12 AM    (permalink
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the detroit lions at this point are the weird little brother nobody ever mentions in these truth posts.

And Jahvid Best doesn't count, he's not even signed yet.
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Old 05-04-2010, 03:40 AM    (permalink
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There's an awful lot of young players gaining experience over the last 2 years on that defense. Losing the 2 defensive leaders in Bru and Harrison in the same season Seymour was shipped out hurts, too. But I think assuming there's no way the team can rebound from that is premature.

Like I said, call it the end. I love the results I see when Belichick's teams are considered the dogs.
Our team is done, get used to it.
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Old 05-04-2010, 04:49 AM    (permalink
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the detroit lions at this point are the weird little brother nobody ever mentions in these truth posts.

And Jahvid Best doesn't count, he's not even signed yet.

Oh I love the Detroit Lions. If Favre retires I think they may finish 2nd in the division. It is a shame they aren't in the NFC West and have to compete with Green Bay and Minnesota. They are still a year off, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they flirt with 7-9 wins.

Matt Stafford made a believer out of me in that gutsy win against Cleveland. Whatever "it" is, he has it. He had a few games where he threw a ton of interceptions, but on a lousy team playing behind I like that he didn't back down. He has Pettigrew, Scheffler, Burelson, Calvin Johnson and now Best. That offense will be very good this year I think. The O-Line isn't great, but it isn't terrible either. On defense I think they will be better off with Vanden Bosch, Williams and Suh solidifying the D-Line, but they still lack the talent in the back seven for me to take them seriously as a unit.

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Our team is done, get used to it.
Roll your eyes all you want, but it is a fact that you went from a very old team (2007) to a very young team (2010). There is going to be a tough transition period. The dominant defense is gone, there is no offensive balance and the old veterans have yet to be replaced.
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Old 05-04-2010, 04:59 AM    (permalink
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Oh I love the Detroit Lions. If Favre retires I think they may finish 2nd in the division. It is a shame they aren't in the NFC West and have to compete with Green Bay and Minnesota. They are still a year off, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they flirt with 7-9 wins.

Matt Stafford made a believer out of me in that gutsy win against Cleveland. Whatever "it" is, he has it. He had a few games where he threw a ton of interceptions, but on a lousy team playing behind I like that he didn't back down. He has Pettigrew, Scheffler, Burelson, Calvin Johnson and now Best. That offense will be very good this year I think. The O-Line isn't great, but it isn't terrible either. On defense I think they will be better off with Vanden Bosch, Williams and Suh solidifying the D-Line, but they still lack the talent in the back seven for me to take them seriously as a unit.
I was just messing around, Shiv. Although I'm glad to see you're a believer. The big issue I think with the NFC North is how pass-rush heavy it's gotten. Every team it seems has a or a few good to very good pass rushers and we have a young QB and a less than stellar offensive line. Defensively we could use some help at corner, but the linebackers are decent enough and the D-line is a lot better than it was last year.
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Old 05-04-2010, 09:26 AM    (permalink
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[*] Chris Johnson will not be able to handle the workload, yet they have no better option. He has a huge injury red flag for me.
]
Javon Ringer says hi. Btw Lendale didnt even get 70 carries last year......
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Old 05-04-2010, 09:41 AM    (permalink
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-The Lions offensive line is mediocre, so Jahvid Best may have a hard time finding space, especially with that division schedule.

-Pete Carroll's problem is that he's a ra ra coach, which is great for college, but is a disaster in the NFL. If he brings the same approach, he's going to fail miserably again. NFL players will not take that stuff seriously. Ask Lou Holtz.

-DROY is Rolando McClain's to lose if you ask me... he's the middle linebacker in a good situation on defense and he's going to start immediately.
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Old 05-04-2010, 09:58 AM    (permalink
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The McNabb Era, Not Terribly Missed[/u]

I've said it and will say it again: The Eagles fleeced the Redskins. Trading for a 33 year old QB, whose stats have largely benefited from a favorable offense now goes to a team that has a worse O-Line, next to no weapons and a backfield that conjures back memories of Madden 2006, it just strikes me as a bad decision. Even if the Redskins benefit in the near term it will not pay off in the long run. My take is that it won't pay off in either way.
Fleeced? Really dude? A 2nd round pick for a proven veteran franchise QB who is a proven winner and done so in the division? If anyone was fleeced it was Philly. Trading their proven franchise QB in the division and putting their hoped in a QB with a 2 game sample size. Not saying that Kolb won't be a good QB but its a big risk. What other move was better for the Redskins? Keep Campbell? No. Select Clausen? A bigger risk then Kolb since he never played a game in the NFL yet. Its not a stretch to say that McNabb has at least 3 years left of high level playing.

As far as the players around him. The OL is a wash argument. Changing from a power blocking to a zone blocking scheme has yet to be seen in action. Kyle Shanahan (OC) was interviewed and asked about his OL prior to the draft and he said that he was extremely confident about the OL and he doesn't see a unit as bad as everyone said. He said they were not used properly and he will be using them to their potential. Its silly to expect a turn around from what they were last year to best OL in the league, but its not impossible to play better in a different scheme. Add that we just added a rookie franchise LT.

Saying that the RBs are washed up is an overreaction. Because they haven't played their best last year doesn't mean they are washed up. Portis, Johnson and Parker want to start which is going to push the others to be better. A resurgence from any or all 3 is not out of the question, certainly not for Portis and Johnson.

Next to no weapons? We are stacked at TE. Thomas and Kelly are two young hungry WRs. Neither have proven anything yet but their talent is there. I remind you they had Jason "lock on" Campbell throwing to them. Not to mention Moss moving to the slot, which will be much better for him not having to be a #1 WR.

I dont think this trade for McNabb can be judged yet. There are too many factors that have to be witnessed before. If this move was made with the previous staff I would see it as an epic failure. But with Shanahan's past success with a veteran, I like the move. I look at it this way, he is better then what we had. If McNabb wins a SB in DC and Kolb is a bust its highway robbery for us. If Kolb takes Philly to the promise land and McNabb is always hurt, then its a damn good trade for Philly. Its just way too soon to judge either.
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Old 05-04-2010, 10:10 AM    (permalink
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It's a myth that college coaches don't make it in the NFL. People jumped on that bandwagon because of recent history and big names like Steve Spurrier, Nick Saban, and Bobby Petrino. People forget that Tom Coughlin, Jimmy Johnson, Bill Walsh and Bill Parcells were all college coaches at one time. There's no curse on college coaches, just media members who don't do their research, and fans who take their word for it.
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Old 05-04-2010, 10:19 AM    (permalink
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It's a myth that college coaches don't make it in the NFL. People jumped on that bandwagon because of recent history and big names like Steve Spurrier, Nick Saban, and Bobby Petrino. People forget that Tom Coughlin, Jimmy Johnson, Bill Walsh and Bill Parcells were all college coaches at one time. There's no curse on college coaches, just media members who don't do their research, and fans who take their word for it.
Bill Walsh coached 2 years at Stanford before getting the 49ers head coaching job. Before that, he was an assistant with San Diego, Cincinnati, and Oakland. He went to Stanford because he was passed over a number of times for an NFL head coaching gig he rightly deserved.

Bill Parcells was the defensive coordinator of the New York Giants and succeeded Ray Perkins as head coach

Both of those are absolutely horrible examples

Also, the game has changed and all of your examples are all 15+ years removed

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