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Old 09-08-2010, 02:38 PM    (permalink
dabears10
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Default Football Outsiders DVOA Season Predictions

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvo...oa-projections


I don't put much into the DVOA but it may be the only preseason prediction I have seen with the Bears making the Playoffs?

Here is a snippet of DVOA is supposed to measure.
Quote:
DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.
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Last edited by dabears10 : 09-08-2010 at 03:03 PM. Reason: DVOA explanation
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Old 09-08-2010, 02:43 PM    (permalink
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It has the Chiefs winning the AFC West too, so not sure I really buy it.
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Old 09-08-2010, 02:48 PM    (permalink
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They have Atlanta winning soundly over New Orleans. Hopefully, but I am a bit bullish on this. In fact, I used to use their stuff a lot but they have been wildly off on quite a few different things.
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Old 09-08-2010, 02:50 PM    (permalink
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1. Falcons
2. Packers
3. Eagles
4. Seahawks
5. Bears
6. Vikings

1. Ravens
2. Patriots
3. Colts
4. Chiefs
5. Steelers
6. Dolphins

Interesting.
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Old 09-08-2010, 02:54 PM    (permalink
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Please God make it true!
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Old 09-08-2010, 02:54 PM    (permalink
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Fun stuff. I don't really put that much into DVOA going forward. But it's really cool to look at it to kind of gauge where your team has been over the past few years compared to other teams. As I pretty much understand it, they try their best to put all the teams in and compare and rank them in a vacuum. Just not sure if it's possible to put those statistics where you basically take out the opponent and then apply it towards playing an opponent...if that makes sense. It's cool how they break everything down though.
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Old 09-08-2010, 02:58 PM    (permalink
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Not even being homer but the 49ers as the #28 team in the League???

I know last month they predicted the Rams to win more games than the 49ers.
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Old 09-08-2010, 03:06 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GB12 View Post
1. Falcons
2. Packers
3. Eagles
4. Seahawks
5. Bears
6. Vikings

1. Ravens
2. Patriots
3. Colts
4. Chiefs
5. Steelers
6. Dolphins

Interesting.
The AFC's only real headscratcher is KC, and even they're not all that hard to believe. If the Chargers suck it up like they sometimes do and KC does just enough to go maybe 9-7, they could slip in and take the division.

The NFC....damn. I mean, I'm glad the Bears are in but they are way off I feel like.
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Old 09-08-2010, 03:08 PM    (permalink
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The Seahawks win the NFC West with what exactly? Mike Williams fulfilling Mel Kiper's prediction of a Hall of Fame like dominant career? Matt Hasselbeck and Justin Forsett? Lawyer Milloy stepping into the fountain of youth?
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Old 09-08-2010, 03:41 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Shiver View Post
The Seahawks win the NFC West with what exactly? Mike Williams fulfilling Mel Kiper's prediction of a Hall of Fame like dominant career? Matt Hasselbeck and Justin Forsett? Lawyer Milloy stepping into the fountain of youth?
That's what I'm saying, I think they're the least talented team in the NFL. Their best player is their injured rookie left tackle.
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Old 09-08-2010, 04:06 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Arizona still projects as the NFC West champion, although the Cardinals' overall projection has moved a lot closer to the conventional wisdom.
Man it is such a bad division.
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Old 09-08-2010, 04:10 PM    (permalink
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Man it is such a bad division.
Only because the "majority" doesn't give Alex Smith much of a chance. Aside from depth at CB, the 49ers are pretty much stacked at every position. And I hope that doesn't come across as homeristic. I think it's reality.
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Old 09-08-2010, 04:13 PM    (permalink
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Only because the "majority" doesn't give Alex Smith much of a chance. Aside from depth at CB, the 49ers are pretty much stacked at every position. And I hope that doesn't come across as homeristic. I think it's reality.
Alex Smith has never given a reasonable mind much reason to give him a chance. I like the 49ers this year and think they'll win the division if Alex Smith is at least average.

I also don't like their edge rushers. They need their own version of a Ware/Merriman/Woodley to get pressure without blitzing.
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Old 09-08-2010, 04:16 PM    (permalink
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There is probably only one players on the Seahawks I would have starting on my Falcons roster: Aaron Curry to pair with Sean Weatherspoon.
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Old 09-08-2010, 04:16 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by phlysac View Post
Only because the "majority" doesn't give Alex Smith much of a chance. Aside from depth at CB, the 49ers are pretty much stacked at every position. And I hope that doesn't come across as homeristic. I think it's reality.
I think they are the favorites to win the division. Smith much to my surprise played well last year when they went into the spread. If they can get Gore going in spread formations they could be really good.
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Old 09-08-2010, 04:18 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by BeerBaron View Post
Alex Smith has never given a reasonable mind much reason to give him a chance. I like the 49ers this year and think they'll win the division if Alex Smith is at least average.
I disagree but it's not an argument worth having.

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I also don't like their edge rushers. They need their own version of a Ware/Merriman/Woodley to get pressure without blitzing.
I agree that a "sack specialist" would be scary in SF but 17.5 sacks out of their OLBs is far from terrible.
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Old 09-08-2010, 04:24 PM    (permalink
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Alex Smith has never given a reasonable mind much reason to give him a chance. I like the 49ers this year and think they'll win the division if Alex Smith is at least average.
What about last year when he threw 18 touchdowns in 10 games and put up middle of the pack numbers? In the two years that he wasn't injured (2006/2009) Smith has been average and the 49ers team is so good this year that they only need an average quarterback to win 9-11 games. People tend to write Smith off without actually thinking about his situation, tbh.

2005: Rookie, played injured, making the transition from a spread, god-awful team around him

2006: Showed improvement, 49ers were only a couple of games away from winning the division

2007: Started off 2-1, injured in week 4, came back and tried to play with a separated shoulder but sucked because he played with a separated shoulder

2008: Still hadn't recovered from the damage he did by trying to play, sat out the season due to injury

2009: First year with actual weapons on the outside, though still a bad offensive line, put up good numbers and led the team to a 5-5 record that could have easily been 6-4 or 7-3 with some luck

Quote:
I also don't like their edge rushers. They need their own version of a Ware/Merriman/Woodley to get pressure without blitzing.
They do get pressure without blitzing because of Justin Smith and Aubrayo Franklin. If both play at least almost as well as they did last year then they will be near the top of the league in sacks again. Lawson, Haralson, Brooks, LaBoy, and Briggs are enough with those two on the line, until we draft a dominant 3-4 OLB. The 49ers actually rarely blitzed last year.

On topic, FO is a joke. They are wrong just as much as they are right and their so-called "formula" involve nothing but making **** up.

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Old 09-08-2010, 04:28 PM    (permalink
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I disagree but it's not an argument worth having.

I agree that a "sack specialist" would be scary in SF but 17.5 sacks out of their OLBs is far from terrible.
How so? Yeah, he's been getting screwed with constant coaching changes, but he hasn't looked all that good otherwise. They just need him to game manage and pick up some 3rd downs while they run the ball and strangle people defensively to be successful. They don't need much more than that to win the division....

17.5 out of their OLBs isn't bad...but getting that out of one guy like a Ware or Woodley or Dumervil can do would put them way over the top. Needing to blitz for consistent pressure is going to get you burned by a good QB.
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Old 09-08-2010, 04:31 PM    (permalink
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I think the ceiling for the Chiefs is 8-8 and that is if they catch some breaks, I'm thinking more like 6-10 and SD at worst 10-6.
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Old 09-08-2010, 04:33 PM    (permalink
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Seems pretty much in line with what most think. Especially in the area.
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Old 09-08-2010, 04:40 PM    (permalink
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Buffalo with the third ranked defense?
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Old 09-08-2010, 04:42 PM    (permalink
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How so? Yeah, he's been getting screwed with constant coaching changes, but he hasn't looked all that good otherwise. They just need him to game manage and pick up some 3rd downs while they run the ball and strangle people defensively to be successful. They don't need much more than that to win the division....
Which is what he did last season. He'll be even better this season.

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Originally Posted by BeerBaron View Post
17.5 out of their OLBs isn't bad...but getting that out of one guy like a Ware or Woodley or Dumervil can do would put them way over the top. Needing to blitz for consistent pressure is going to get you burned by a good QB.
I don't disagree but the 49ers got the vast majority of their sacks from DE's and OLB's in standard sets. They didn't blitz any more often than any 3-4 team.
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Old 09-09-2010, 03:18 AM    (permalink
Nikolas
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Their accuracy leaves much to be desired. They correctly picked 5/12 playoff teams last year, which is about the same as just randomly picking names out of a hat. The year before that, they went 6 for 12.

When you consider one of those is a gimmie (Indy hasn't missed the playoffs in 8 years), it's not impressive.
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Old 09-09-2010, 03:50 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GB12 View Post
1. Falcons
2. Packers
3. Eagles
4. Seahawks
5. Bears
6. Vikings

Interesting.
If the Eagles manage a three seed and win the NFC East as the 4th youngest team in football led by a first starting QB I would bet serious money that the Eagles win at least two superbowls in the next decade if things worked out like that. That type of season under Kolb would cement Andy Reid as one of the greatest coaches of this era. If the the switch from Kolb to McNabb results in an immediate improvement I will be shocked and amazed.
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Old 09-09-2010, 05:51 AM    (permalink
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Say what you want about Alex Smith but there is a very strong arguement for him being the BEST QB in that division which is amazing, I'd be one of his biggest supporters I reckon and even I think that sounds outrageous.

But honestly, once Hasselbeck is inevitably injured it is absolutely clear cut that he is the top QB.
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