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Old 10-01-2010, 08:55 AM    (permalink
Poz51
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Originally Posted by BeerBaron View Post
Plus they could still use a lot of help on defense too. They have a lot of stop-gaps and bad fits filling out their 3-4...they could use a host of young guys to step up and a lot of talent there too.

I give him 2.5 years.
Very true They do need help defensively, but like the offensive line last year (tackles were the problem, not the hole line), I would like to clarify where, agian this is my opinion.
Defensively this team needs Carrington to figure it out and take over for Stroud, who continually continues to disappoint. But other than some depth behind him they are actually looking good upfront if Troup can be what they thought he can be, and Williams backing him up, and come in on passing downs, Spencer is a capable rotational/depth player behind Edwards who has been good, although he has not been getting the penetration they would like.
The secondary is set (It aint broke, please dont "fix it").
LB is clearly the glaring need and this is just my opinion. Posluszny is the only part of the puzzle on the roster moving forward at one of the two ILB spots. Mitchell might be, but there is some writing on the wall (one year left on his contract next year, missed 11 games last season, and is missing this season) that he might not be here moving forward... Hopefully the signing of Kelsey is just a leadership/show the young guys how to do it right thing, because it certainly is not a talent/postion fit move. At this point he and Ellis IMO have not proven they are capable OLB's in a 3-4 on the strong side, behind Poz is Ellison who is a 4-3 guy, out of position and I think an excellent back up on a team like the Bears (veteren presence, capable back up, and a guy I like), and Moats who like Carrington and Troup needs time, but I think he'll fit in the future, and is starting to see some time at OLB where I believe he is a better fit. Davis at the other ILB spot is a good run defender between the tackles, that is it, Ayodele is nothing more than a number and was signed because... I guess depth was needed. This spot is need of an upgrade no doubt unless Moats becomes the man, in which case depth is needed regardless. The "Jack" is being occupied by Torbor and Maybin, Torbor might be a capable back up, but I have seen nothing from him as a starter and Maybin is a almost at full bust status, playing at 220 with a great first step at Penn St. only rushing the passer is one thing, but playing at 250 with no first step in the NFL is another and IMO this franchise needs to send another statement (Bye Trent...) if Maybin can not produce this year and wash there hands of this mistake, he is still the last guy off the snap 3 out 4 times, has no first step of consequense, has a spin move slower than his first step, thinks he's a bull rusher now, and has shown nothing to date to justify anything other than he came in a stole Ralph's $$,$$$,$$$. Antonio Coleman might be the only hope, and has shown potential, but is again young and needs time.
Bad fits and stop gaps is fair when talking about the LB's for the most part, the DL needs some depth and draft picks to step up, and the secondary is fine, but with some LB's particularly OLB's who can get after the QB it would be a whole new D.
Im in the same 2-3 year boat range with Gailey, as long as he can get the QB, T, TE and OLB spots figured out, and maintain what they have along with improving a couple other spots (WR, TE) along the way... Next year is unrealistic IMO but if they can draft right, and add a key guy along the way, who knows, maybe they can be a legit playoff contender moving forward, down the road.
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Old 10-01-2010, 09:16 AM    (permalink
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Some Penn State players do OK in the Pros. But as a Penn State fan myself, I can confidently say that everyone who watched Maybin on that team knew he'd be a washout in the pros. He was a skinny-looking speed guy in the Big 10. That tells you all you need to know, really. The Maybin pick will set their defense back for years because instead of him they could easily have had Orakpo or Matthews who are beginning to look like perennial Pro Bowlers.

As for the Spiller pick, it was exceedingly dumb. I don't care how much of a big-play threat he will turn out to be; you simply do not build teams around a running back anymore in today's NFL if you want to be a contender.
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Old 10-01-2010, 09:20 AM    (permalink
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Some Penn State players do OK in the Pros. But as a Penn State fan myself, I can confidently say that everyone who watched Maybin on that team knew he'd be a washout in the pros. He was a skinny-looking speed guy in the Big 10. That tells you all you need to know, really. The Maybin pick will set their defense back for years because instead of him they could easily have had Orakpo or Matthews who are beginning to look like perennial Pro Bowlers.

As for the Spiller pick, it was exceedingly dumb. I don't care how much of a big-play threat he will turn out to be; you simply do not build teams around a running back anymore in today's NFL if you want to be a contender.
You can still build around a running game.

There's more than one way to skin a cat, teams can still be very successful playing smashmouth defense and ground n pound offense.
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Old 10-01-2010, 09:27 AM    (permalink
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You can still build around a running game.

There's more than one way to skin a cat, teams can still be very successful playing smashmouth defense and ground n pound offense.
You're completely wrong about this. Because of the rules changes that occurred in 2004, the passing game is of paramount importance in today's NFL. It's next to impossible to shut out opposing passing attacks with defense now. The best way to fight an opposing passing attack is to slow it down with solid defense and outscore it with your own passing attack.

If you don't have a top 10 passing offense, you aren't a contender. Period.
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Old 10-01-2010, 09:50 AM    (permalink
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You're completely wrong about this. Because of the rules changes that occurred in 2004, the passing game is of paramount importance in today's NFL. It's next to impossible to shut out opposing passing attacks with defense now. The best way to fight an opposing passing attack is to slow it down with solid defense and outscore it with your own passing attack.

If you don't have a top 10 passing offense, you aren't a contender. Period.
The Giants won a SB in 07 with a dominant defense and a power run game.

The Steelers won the SB in 08 with a dominant defense and mediocre offense.


Pittsburg also won the SB in 05 with a dominant defense and power run game.

The Pats beat the Panthers in 04 with a dominant defense and power run game.

So basically, since the rule changes took place in 04, 4 out of the 6 SB champions since then won with defense and running the ball.

So you were saying?
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Old 10-01-2010, 11:08 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
The Giants won a SB in 07 with a dominant defense and a power run game.

The Steelers won the SB in 08 with a dominant defense and mediocre offense.


Pittsburg also won the SB in 05 with a dominant defense and power run game.

The Pats beat the Panthers in 04 with a dominant defense and power run game.

So basically, since the rule changes took place in 04, 4 out of the 6 SB champions since then won with defense and running the ball.

So you were saying?
I would also like to point out that in Indy's superbowl, Addai and Rhodes should have been co MVPS. It was their run game that won that game.
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Old 10-01-2010, 11:34 AM    (permalink
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The Giants won a SB in 07 with a dominant defense and a power run game.
Eli Manning <-> Plaxico Burress figured prominently in that Super Bowl run.

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The Steelers won the SB in 08 with a dominant defense and mediocre offense.
The Steelers did indeed win the SB in 08 with dominant defense, but they also had a top 10 QB that year. Without Big Ben, they don't win that Super Bowl or even get to it, despite having the #1 defense in the league that year.


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Pittsburg also won the SB in 05 with a dominant defense and power run game.
Again, you're discounting the amazing performance (relatively, for a rookie) of QB Big Ben that year in the games leading up to the Super Bowl.

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The Pats beat the Panthers in 04 with a dominant defense and power run game.
All that year the Pats had a top 3 defense, yes, but without above-average QB play (Brady) they don't go to the Super Bowl. Don't you remember that Tom Brady fellow? Think about the whole season, and not just a single game.


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So basically, since the rule changes took place in 04, 4 out of the 6 SB champions since then won with defense and running the ball.

So you were saying?
Here's how it works:

The Super Bowl winner, in every NFL season I've studied in the past two decades, is invariably a team with a top 10 defense in terms of "net adjusted yards per pass". That's the barrier to entry. You can't win a Super Bowl without a top 10 defense in that statistical category.

After that, what typically differentiates the Super Bowl winner from the rest of the pack is the strength of the offense. The better the team is in "net adjusted yards per pass" on offense, the more likely they are to win the Super Bowl among teams in the top 10 in "net adjusted yards per pass" given up on defense. For example, the 1999 Rams were #3 in NAYPP on defense, and #1 in NAYPP on offense. The 2010 Saints were #9 in NAYPP oon defense and #1 in NAYPP on offense.

If a team has an EXTREMELY strong "net adjusted yards per pass" on defense (typically lower than 3.8), such as the 2008 Steelers or the 2002 Buccaneers or the 2000 Ravens, they can win a championship with a barely average passing attack, but still wouldn't be able to win with an extremely below-average passing attack or just a running game. For example, the Buccaneers consistently were in the top 5 in "net adjusted yards per pass" on defense for years from 1998-2003 but only managed to win the Super Bowl or even get deep into the playoffs with above-average quarterbacking in Brad Johnson in 2002. Prior that Johnson they had scrub play in the passing game which their defense could not overcome in the playoffs.

The most important thing in the game, far and away, is stopping the pass on defense and establishing the pass on offense. Effectively stopping the pass on defense gets your foot in the door of the playoffs, but establishing the pass on offense allows you to go all the way.
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Old 10-01-2010, 11:40 AM    (permalink
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Fwiw, I don't mind the Spiller pick. The reason is that the Bills have blown like 8 of their last 9 first rounders. So rather than have a high percentage change of getting another low impact first round bust, I figured at least we'll get the BPA and go from there.

The way the Bills draft their first round sounds eerily Ralph Wilsonish. Last year our biggest problem was pass rush, so it seemed obvious to get the best pass rusher. Now as far as Orakpo, word is Jauron overruled everyone and made the final decision and went with the speed rusher. You could make a case that we already had two power rushers in Kelsay and Schoebel.

The year before that we went with McKelvin, sort of a BPA pick - and what do you know, he's still on the team! And he's playing really well this season. However, in typical Bills fashion we lost Jabari Greer for a moderate salary. I thought he was the best and most underrated player on our team that year, lights out in man-to-man coverage.

The year before that we had no running game, so we take the best runner available.

This year, we needed excitement on the offense so we took the most exciting player available.

It's almost as if Ralph has the final say for the first round pick and he uses it to adress his top need from sort of a fan point of view. After all he is a fan and watches the games like we do. Great, but let the scouts pick the guys Ralph, they probably know who is good and who is bad.

Fyi, we liked Revis in the Lynch Draft, and we LOVED Matthews from last years draft, too bad he didn't make it to pick 28.

Also, note how nobody from the front office has said a word about the Chris Kelsay contract extension. For a leader, and a guy that they wanted to extend long term, you would think they would be proud to extend him and announce the news to everyone. Well apparently not. It's looking more and more like a Ralph Wilson move in which he is rewarding loyal guys. Looks like Nix and co wanted no part in this.

Ralph Wilson is the problem with the Buffalo Bills.
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Old 10-01-2010, 12:00 PM    (permalink
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The Bills reached an injury settlement with Kawika Mitchell, meaning he's released. (per Bills text.)
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Old 10-01-2010, 12:50 PM    (permalink
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I think when senile 92-yr-old owner Ralph Wilson passes there will be some severe & fundamental changes in that franchise. Things have been in a state of sustained chaos there for the past few seasons & no player wants to play there.

If the NFL & Goddell could've moved them to Toronto, where they were forced to play 3 BUFFALO HOME GAMES, by now they would be the only Canadian team in the NFL, they will still make it happen if at all possible.
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Old 10-01-2010, 01:34 PM    (permalink
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What do you call them if they move to Toronto (I agree, they should move)? Toronto Bills makes no sense (worse than Jazz or Lakers).

I love that he complained that his team can't compete against other markets when he has had the option of having an entire ******* country to his own.

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Old 10-01-2010, 02:05 PM    (permalink
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Also to further strengthen my point that you win by establishing the pass, and not the run:

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The Steelers won the SB in 08 with a dominant defense and mediocre offense.
Roethlisberger: 60%, 3301 yards, 17 TDs, 15 INTs, 7.0 Y/A, 80.1 rating. Slightly above-average stat line, but they did have the #1 defense in all statistical categories that year, and one of the top 3 defenses of the past decade. In this situation, you have the #1 defense with a slightly above-average passing attack. But NOT a "run the ball to win" offense. Without Roethlisberger they don't make the playoffs, let alone win the Super Bowl with some of his amazing scoring drives.


Quote:
Pittsburg also won the SB in 05 with a dominant defense and power run game.
Roethlisberger: 62.7% 2385 yards, 17 TDs, 9 INTs, 8.9 Y/A, 98.6 rating. That's a clearly above-average performance in the passing game for this team if you consider that he missed several games this year. Sure, they had a top 5 defense, but Roethlisberger took them over the top and into the playoffs.

Quote:
The Pats beat the Panthers in 04 with a dominant defense and power run game.
Brady: 60.8%, 3692 yards, 28 TDs, 14 INTs, 7.8 Y/A, 92.6 rating. This is a stellar passing attack married to a top 5 defense. Teams that can field a top 5 defense and also a top 5 offense almost invariably win the Super Bowl.

But did you know that in 2004, the Buffalo Bills, and the Washington Redskins all had stastically equivalent, or even superior defenses? Where were they in the playoffs? Nowhere, because their passing attacks were deficient. The Redskins even had a stud running game featuring Clinton Portis, but again, because of the inadequate passing attack, they finished with a 6-10 record.

The key to building a championship team in the NFL is building an offense around a quarterback. Then, once you have the pieces in place to field a top 10 offense for a decade or more, you try to add enough defensive pieces until you luck into a top 10 defense for a season. Because defense is more fickle year-in and year-out than offense, you won't be able to maintain the defensive dominance as long as you will the offense. Look at Drew Brees and the Saints, for instance:

From 2006-2009 they consistently lead almost all of the offensive statistical categories. Due to very poor passing defense prior to 2009, they have little success in the playoffs despite having a top 5 offense year-in and year-out. They add a few missing pieces to the secondary and a new coordinator in 2009, and voila, you have a top 10 defense married to the #1 offense, and an instant Super Bowl.

A good QB and WR corps can play together and score for a decade or more. A good defense will regress to the mean, statistically, after a dominant year. Your best hope as an NFL GM is to build around a good passing attack, and hope that at some point it coincides with an above-average year for your defense.

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Old 10-01-2010, 03:38 PM    (permalink
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What do you call them if they move to Toronto (I agree, they should move)? Toronto Bills makes no sense (worse than Jazz or Lakers).

I love that he complained that his team can't compete against other markets when he has had the option of having an entire ******* country to his own.
Do you mean by marketing the Bills there, or moving the team to Toronto?
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But for everyone reading this in Buffalo and Cleveland and everywhere else, take solace in the following: As crazy as it sounds, you're lucky. Your Mount Everest experience is still ahead of you. It's waiting, and it's glorious.- Bill Simmons
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Old 10-01-2010, 03:42 PM    (permalink
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Do you mean by marketing the Bills there, or moving the team to Toronto?
Both. I know they're already pretty popular in Toronto.
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Old 10-01-2010, 06:20 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't say they're that popular in Toronto.. they have trouble selling tickets (but that may be due to the fact that the Bills suck and the ticket prices are very high).

Also, yes, he could have moved the team to Toronto to have a large market, but time and time again he said that as long as he is alive, the Bills will be in Buffalo - And he's stuck by his word.
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my lord...I cannot imagine such a world where I can mention Raymell Rice's thighs around a girl and not be the only one sexually aroused
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But for everyone reading this in Buffalo and Cleveland and everywhere else, take solace in the following: As crazy as it sounds, you're lucky. Your Mount Everest experience is still ahead of you. It's waiting, and it's glorious.- Bill Simmons
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Old 10-01-2010, 06:32 PM    (permalink
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They couldve made worse picks than Spiller. I wouldnt have taken him at #9 but he's not just a RB. He can return kicks, and he's a great receiver for his position
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Old 10-01-2010, 07:44 PM    (permalink
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They couldve made worse picks than Spiller. I wouldnt have taken him at #9 but he's not just a RB. He can return kicks, and he's a great receiver for his position
Ya, but the Bills already had 2 good runningbacks and they already had one of the better groups of return men in the NFL... And Spiller wasn't even the BPA at that point in the draft.
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Old 10-01-2010, 07:54 PM    (permalink
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Ya, but the Bills already had 2 good runningbacks and they already had one of the better groups of return men in the NFL... And Spiller wasn't even the BPA at that point in the draft.
He may have been.

They needed a QB and a LT. They obviously weren't that high on Bulaga/Davis or Clausen.

Kudos for staying true to their board and not drafting for need in a panic.

Spiller is a much better player than Jackson and the team hasn't thought of Lynch as a part of their future for years.
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Old 10-01-2010, 08:11 PM    (permalink
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So I've decided to come up with a plan for the Bills...

First off, fire Chan Gailey. That was just a terrible, obvious cheapskate move by the Bills. Chan sucks and it's an embarrassment to the entire NFL that someone that got fired as a college head coach for legitimately sucking, then got fired as an NFL OC for legitimately sucking landed a job as an NFL head coach after he's been fired from such jobs before for legitimately sucking (see the trend). He legitimately sucks.

Hire Brian Schottenheimer and maybe have Wade Phillips tag along as the DC when Dallas inevitably fires his ass.

Reason for Schottenheimer is 1) I think he's a legit coordinator who will make an even better head coach and 2) a lot of the pieces he needs to run his offense are already there. 3 nice runningbacks, an athletic TE, and a deep threat at WR.

Wade Phillips because he has familiarity with Schottenheimer and runs the style of 3-4 that will work best with Schottenheimer's offense. Also because the draft is going to be heavily slanted towards the offense, and Buffalo will need a veteran playcaller to get the most out of what they have.

They'll have to draft a QB because they can't afford to take another position with the 3 potential all-world QBs in this draft class. The talent at other positions isn't nearly strong enough to make any argument other than which QB.

In the second round, if there's a solid OT that's got to be the pick. Just looking at seniors, after Costanzo, the rest of the Top 5 on Scott's rankings (Sherrod, Love, Solder, Carimi) could all be there for Buffalo.

Focus mostly on WRs and OL, DL, and LB depth with the rest of the draft. The Bills would need a bigger brand of WR, so maybe target Hankerson, Pettis, or Ron Johnson in the 3rd?

They might still suck, but things would be looking up, and they'd at least have an identity and some excitement about the team would build within the fanbase.

Make the 2012 draft a bit more defensively oriented. Maybe target a potential #1 WR early if there's one there.
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Old 10-01-2010, 08:13 PM    (permalink
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He may have been.

They needed a QB and a LT. They obviously weren't that high on Bulaga/Davis or Clausen.

Kudos for staying true to their board and not drafting for need in a panic.

Spiller is a much better player than Jackson and the team hasn't thought of Lynch as a part of their future for years.
Dez Bryant was clearly the BPA. Derrick Morgan was also a higher rated player in terms of BPA.
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Old 10-01-2010, 10:28 PM    (permalink
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Andrew Luck, soon to be King of Toronto.
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Old 10-01-2010, 10:43 PM    (permalink
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I'm putting my money on Buffalo signing Jared Gaither this offseason to play LT.
I will bet you anything they don't
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Old 10-01-2010, 10:47 PM    (permalink
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So I've decided to come up with a plan for the Bills...

Hire Brian Schottenheimer and maybe have Wade Phillips tag along as the DC when Dallas inevitably fires his ass.

Reason for Schottenheimer is 1) I think he's a legit coordinator who will make an even better head coach and 2) a lot of the pieces he needs to run his offense are already there. 3 nice runningbacks, an athletic TE, and a deep threat at WR.

Wade Phillips because he has familiarity with Schottenheimer and runs the style of 3-4 that will work best with Schottenheimer's offense. Also because the draft is going to be heavily slanted towards the offense, and Buffalo will need a veteran playcaller to get the most out of what they have.
hahahhaha Wade Phillips back in buffalo, I don't think even the Bills are that ridiculous.

I still love Buffalo for week 17 2008 but they have really stepped off the ledge into the abyss. the abyss where Chan Gailey ended up too apparently. There's really no other franchise in the NFL that so desperately needs a savior, and that even includes the raiders who are the devil.
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Old 10-02-2010, 02:24 AM    (permalink
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hahahhaha Wade Phillips back in buffalo, I don't think even the Bills are that ridiculous.
What he said. Him and Rob Johnson can go **** eachother's faces til they die before either ends up back in Buffalo... Not that hes a bad DC at all, but fffffuck, he was crap for the Bills making stupid decisions.

The Bills aren't going to be good any time soon, I've accepted this as a Bills fan, and since I work every Sunday until after the 1 o'clock games, it doesn't bother me that much...
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Old 10-02-2010, 08:15 AM    (permalink
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Its sad really, and I really feel sorry for fans of any team that constantly make bad decisions over the years like the Bills, Raiders, Lions(etc) one after another.

Then again, I am a Vikings fan.......
Well your team goes out and gets talented guys like:

-Jared Allen
-Pat Williams
-Steve Hutchinson
-Antoine Winfield
-Brett Favre

All of these guys have made Pro Bowls with the Vikings. Plus add in Shiancoe, Berrian, Longwell at kicker.... all non-draftees. Very impressive, and aggressive.

And the draft picks of Adrian Peterson, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin ain't too bad... contrast that to the poor Bills fans. It's no wonder.
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