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Old 11-23-2010, 06:10 PM    (permalink
Sportsfan486
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Default Packers at Falcons [Week 12]

Alright, we need a thread up for this.

I don't feel like we'll have four dominating games in a row, especially with this being the best QB we'll have faced for an entire game.

I'm going 31-27 Pack.

A couple more in depth predictions;
Roddy White has 10+, 140+, 2 TD+
No turnovers for either team but 4+ sacks for both.
Rodgers leads his first true game-winning drive with under 3:00 remaining in the game, down 24-27.
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Old 11-24-2010, 12:40 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Sportsfan486 View Post
Rodgers leads his first true game-winning drive with under 3:00 remaining in the game, down 24-27.
God that would be absolutely perfect!
That's really all that's missing from him getting to that elite level, at least in the regular season.

I would expect some turnovers though, in this game.

We lose all our games by 3 points, if we lose. Let's win a close one. I'd pay money for your scenario to come true, except I am WAY sick or Rod White putting up big numbers like that. Also, I want some picks on Matty Ice. I want to see us treat him like we did Peyton Manning in 2008: a pair of 99-yard pick-6's. Remember those? Even Aaron Rouse got one.
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Old 11-24-2010, 01:07 AM    (permalink
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The Falcons D isn't really that ball-hawking, imo.

And I just feel like our D is due for a little roadbump, although I agree that Ryan is due for a surge of picks.

We need Rodgers to get that come from behind last minute victory. We're not going to win playoff games until he gets it, imo.
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Old 11-24-2010, 02:38 AM    (permalink
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Wait, did you guys forget opening game of last season vs Chicago? Rodgers connected with Jennings on a game winning TD with 1:11 left in the 4th.

In any case, Atlanta is a smart team who makes little mistakes. Packers need to be on top of their game. Good thing they played in a dome this past week, gives them extra preparation for the atmosphere they will be in. Tramon vs Roddy White should be a good match-up. Best of all, with them changing the starting time of the game, I'll be able to get it here in CA

as for a prediction, I got this being a close game with the Pack wining 24-20
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Old 11-24-2010, 02:43 AM    (permalink
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Wait, did you guys forget opening game of last season vs Chicago? Rodgers connected with Jennings on a game winning TD with 1:11 left in the 4th.
I did forget. :(

Still, he needs to improve from 1 out of 12 or however many chances.
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Old 11-24-2010, 02:45 AM    (permalink
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The start time never changed. It's still a noon game which sucks because I might have to miss part or all of it. Mother ******. I was really hoping they'd flex this game to Sunday night.
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Old 11-24-2010, 02:47 AM    (permalink
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yeah woops, it was one of the games FOX decided to protect. In any case, Sunday should be good. I'll get the Packers game early, then the Eagles/Bears game in the afternoon. By 4 PM, I'm hoping for a clean sweep with a Packers win and a Bears loss
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Old 11-24-2010, 02:49 AM    (permalink
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Right but still, I don't get why they didn't at least move it to the late game on Fox.
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Old 11-24-2010, 02:49 AM    (permalink
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The start time never changed. It's still a noon game which sucks because I might have to miss part or all of it. Mother ******. I was really hoping they'd flex this game to Sunday night.
Hmm, Indy vs San Diego is a rivalry sorta game, not surprised we didn't get it.

Look at that juicy Monday Night matchup though, for the second week in a row. *yawn*
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Old 11-24-2010, 10:58 AM    (permalink
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Here's more from the great Bob McGinn:
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Breakdown | Packers Insider


Here's some more stuff from this matchup.

We lost to them 2 years ago in Green Bay (Matt Ryan's rookie season). Everyone knows Atlanta is A LOT better home team. Ryan has only lost 1 game as a starter at home in his career. But they beat us in a close game in Green Bay 2 years ago.

Rodgers had a good game, so did Matt Ryan. The difference that day was mostly the running game. They pounded us for 176 yards on the ground.

Also, we missed a field goal, they didn't. And they sacked Rodgers 2 times, we didn't touch Matt Ryan. We didn't have Clay Matthews then.

All that added up to a close game, and for some reason, Matt Ryan has won his close games, while Rodgers has lost most of his close games. As you guys know, all three of our losses this season were by 3 points, and counting the previous loss to that, the OT loss in Arizona, we've lost 4 close games, 3 in overtime, with Rodgers having 5 series to win those games, and he didn't get the job done. Excuses aside, the fact of the matter so far is that Ryan has demonstrated that for some reason, he's had a clutch knack for coming up big late in tight games. Hence "MATTY ICE".

Either the Packers win by 7+ here, or Atlanta will win a close game and give us Packer fans the same sick feeling we had in Washington, in Chicago, and vs Miami.

This is the box score of our game vs Atlanta 2 seasons ago. http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/200810...ackers/analyze
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Old 11-24-2010, 12:35 PM    (permalink
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Look at that juicy Monday Night matchup though, for the second week in a row. *yawn*

Good. Screw ESPN
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Old 11-24-2010, 12:35 PM    (permalink
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Randomness.

-This game is too good to be on at Noon.

-The Falcons strike me as a team with no weaknesses...but no glaring strengths. Roddy White is great, but his greatness is leveled off by the mediocre pass catchers he plays with. Matt Ryan will be great. Now, he's good. The o-line is good. The defense is solid, but unspectacular. I see this game going to whoever can make the big plays and/or avoid mistakes.

-Maybe I'm in the minority, but the fact that this game is in Atlanta doesn't bother me at all. Home or Away hasn't dictated how the Packers have played this year.

-We need to enjoy the lead-up to this game. Because, once it's over, we're gonna be faced with overreactions from the media. Win, and people won't be able to mention the Packers without saying the 'SB' word. Lose, and, our 4 game winning streak is ancient history and we go from Superbowl contenders, to just another team fighting for a playoff spot.
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Old 11-24-2010, 03:09 PM    (permalink
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-We need to enjoy the lead-up to this game. Because, once it's over, we're gonna be faced with overreactions from the media. Win, and people won't be able to mention the Packers without saying the 'SB' word. Lose, and, our 4 game winning streak is ancient history and we go from Superbowl contenders, to just another team fighting for a playoff spot.
So we want to root for the Packers to lose?

I hate it when people pile on expectations. When was the last time a Wisconsin team did well with huge expectations on them? The 1997 Packers?
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Old 11-24-2010, 06:06 PM    (permalink
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I gotta feeling this game will come down to one play again, or like the Bears loss, the Dolphins loss, and even the Redskins loss, or the Vikings first win, it will be close enough that the losing team will have a valid argument that one or two clearly bad calls were enough to make the difference in who won or lost.

They're not always "excuses". They're often as valid as fumbles or tipped passes that find a defensive guy.

Ask yourself this: if it does come down to the final 2-4 minutes, who would you put your money on to come away with the tight win?
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Old 11-24-2010, 11:33 PM    (permalink
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I gotta feeling this game will come down to one play again, or like the Bears loss, the Dolphins loss, and even the Redskins loss, or the Vikings first win, it will be close enough that the losing team will have a valid argument that one or two clearly bad calls were enough to make the difference in who won or lost.

They're not always "excuses". They're often as valid as fumbles or tipped passes that find a defensive guy.

Ask yourself this: if it does come down to the final 2-4 minutes, who would you put your money on to come away with the tight win?
Falcons, the offense has guys with more experience than the Packers, even if the Packers' offense is more talented, but it's even at the moment(injuries make it either way)
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Old 11-27-2010, 09:22 AM    (permalink
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THIS GAME IS HUGE

With a Falcons win, they go 3 games ahead of the Packers and we have no prayer of a #1 seed.

With a Packers win, we'd technically be ahead of them and in good position for a #1 or #2 seed, which is a playoff bye, and then a home game.

I just found this over at another Packers Forum, some good stuff here from the good guys at ColdHardFootballFacts.

Aaron Rodgers and the statistically prolific Packers (7-3) roll into Atlanta to face Matt Ryan and the Falcons, who boast the best record in the NFC (8-2).
The winner enters December with an inside track on the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.
Three Things You Should Care About

1. Aaron Rodgers is about to enter the realm of statistical greatness.

The NFL requires a minimum of 1,500 career pass attempts to qualify for "official" records. Rodgers has attempted 1,470. With an average of 33 attempts per game this year, he has a good chance of crossing that 1,500-attempt threshold on Sunday. And when he does, his name will be high on the list of several critical measures of pass efficiency -- the kind of indicators in which the Cold, Hard Football Facts place the most value.
Rodgers has been tremendous since he became the full-time starter in Green Bay in 2008. His 103.2 passer rating in 2009 was the highest by any Packers quarterback since the great Bart Starr himself in his MVP season of 1966 (105.0) and his shortened nine-game season of 1968 (104.3).
Rodger's career rating (96.87) is second-best in NFL history, a micro-shade ahead of Steve Young (96.81) and behind only his current stat-monster contemporary, Philip Rivers (97.27), on the all-time list.

Perhaps more impressively, Rodgers boasts what is easily the best TD-INT ratio ever. We put a lot of stock in this indicator because it indicates great production while minimizing killer mistakes. Rodgers has thrown 2.6 touchdowns for every INT (78-30). It's a mind-blowing number by the historic standards of the NFL. It's well ahead of the next two guys on the list:
• Philip Rivers throws 2.39 TDs for every pick (129-54).
• Tom Brady throws 2.37 TDs for every pick (244-103).
Some other notables on the TD-INT ratio list? Peyton Manning (2.05 to 1); Joe Montana (1.96 to 1); Dan Marino (1.67 to 1); Brett Favre (1.52 to 1), just to name a few.
Barring any unforeseen disasters, Rodgers will "officially" be a statistical giant on Monday morning.

Of course, Rodgers (and Rivers for that matter) still must stand under a shower of confetti in February before their reputations will match their historic productivity.

2. That Matt Ryan kid ain't half bad either, especially at home.

Atlanta's third-year quarterback has been deadly at home. He's 18-1 in Atlanta and that lone loss was a narrow 24-20 defeat to the Broncos back in his rookie year of 2008. You rarely see that kind of stretch of success out of a Hall of Fame veteran at the peak of his career, let alone out of a young player in his earliest days.

Ryan's home numbers are impressive, as you'd expect to see from any quarterback during a long string of success. Here's his cumulative performance in 19 home games:
• 347 of 540 (64.3 percent), 4,159 yards, 7.7 YPA, 28 TD, 12 INT, 95.75 rating
Wow, that's great stuff. But don't put another victory in the win column for Atlanta just yet. Green Bay is tied with the Bears for the best defense in football this year (14.6 PPG). And its pass defense in particular provides a formidable challenge.
We measure pass defenses not by yards allowed -- really a useless indicator -- but by Defensive Passer Rating. We take the formula used to rate a quarterback's passing efficiency and apply it to a team's defensive stats. It has an incredibly high correlation to team success.

The Packers right now are No. 2 in Defensive Passer Rating (66.46). Only the Bears are better, and just barely (66.42). Green Bay has allowed just nine TD tosses all year, with 15 picks. Opponents complete a mere 55.9 percent of their passes; only the Jets are better in this department (51.0 percent). Green Bay is also No. 2 in yards per pass attempt against them (6.46). It's a great pass defense, in other words.
With all that said, the Packers have not exactly faced a murderers' row of quarterbacks: Michael Vick in Week 1, Mark Sanchez and Week 8 and that's about it for good quarterbacks leading good teams on Green Bay's schedule so far.
Bottom line: Green Bay's pass defense vs. Ryan at home represents what might be the toughest battle for both sides all year.

3. The Packers are the most efficient, well-run team in football this year.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts put a lot of stock in efficiency over volume. Efficient teams win games, regardless of how prolific they might be.
You should put a lot of stock in efficiency, too. After all, teams that win the efficiency battle by our measure win about 85 percent of the time. Few indicators outside of final score have such an incredibly high correlation to success on Sunday.
We measure defensive efficiency through what we call the Bendability Index, our very successful effort to quantify the mysterious "bend but don't break" phenomenon. We measure offensive efficiency by what we call the

Scoreability Index.
Right now, no team in football is more efficient on both sides of the ball than Green Bay. The Packers are No. 1 in Bendability: they force opponents to march an incredible 155 yards to score the equivalent of one touchdown and extra point. That's a lot of work and a lot of wasted effort by opponents with little result.

(For comparison's sake, the Chargers are dead last this year in Bendability: opponents need just 89 yards to put seven points on the board. Now you know why San Diego is just 5-5 despite its incredible rankings in most traditional indicators: they're an inefficient team.)

The Packers, meanwhile, are No. 3 in Scoreability, too. They're highly effective at turning just a few yards into a lot of points. Green Bay needs just 97 yards of offense to put the equivalent of seven points on the board.
A lot of factors go into a highly efficient team, at least the way we track it: teams that win the turnover battle, that are good on special teams, that force big plays on defense and that play well in the red zone rank very highly in our efficiency indicators. The Packers, in other words, are an efficient, well-coached team that plays smart situational football and takes advantage of opportunities presented to it on both sides of the ball.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts
Atlanta is well equipped to handle Green Bay's playmaking defense. The Falcons right now field the best offensive line in football, according to our Offensive Hog Index. And that unit will play a key role on Sunday.
The Packers are among the best in football at getting after the quarterback, as evidenced by their NFC-leading 29 sacks. Linebacker Clay Matthews leads the charge with 11.5 sacks, the most by any player this year.

Atlanta counters with one of the best pass-blocking units in football: Ryan is pressured into a sack or interception on just 5.1 percent of dropbacks. Only Peyton Manning suffers fewer mistakes (4.2 percent).

Provided Atlanta's offensive line plays up to its potential on Sunday, it neutralizes one of Green Bay's typical advantages: its playmaking defense.
The Falcons also have a better record overall, they're a solid club, and they're virtually unbeatable at home. It's hard to go against that kind of trend.

But they do have one critical weakness: the Falcons are merely mediocre on pass defense. They rank a mere No. 21 in Defensive Passer Rating, and have allowed 18 TD passes this year. That weakness does not bode well against the statistically prolific Rodgers, who will exploit that weakness and enter the "official" NFL record books in style.

The Pick
This is one of the toughest games to gauge we've seen this year: Green Bay is statistically proficient, while the Falcons never lose at home.
Here's the difference: Green Bay has surrendered just 10 points in its last three games, the best stretch of defense by any team in football this year. The Falcons, meanwhile, are soft on pass defense and face a red-hot quarterback. It adds up to a rare loss in Atlanta for the Falcons.

Green Bay 24, Atlanta 23
(Week 11 prediction: New England 27, Indianapolis 26. Result: New England 31, Indianapolis 28.)
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Old 11-27-2010, 11:07 AM    (permalink
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ESPN AccuScore Prediction vs Atlanta:


Field Pass, Marcellus Wiley & Teddy Bruschi
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Old 11-27-2010, 01:27 PM    (permalink
Pack_Attack_4
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my pridicyion is Packers 31 ATL 20

i think A rod lights up there secondary and has a huge game, and our D holds matty ice in check.
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Old 11-27-2010, 06:45 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pack_Attack_4 View Post
my pridicyion is Packers 31 ATL 20

i think A rod lights up there secondary and has a huge game, and our D holds matty ice in check.
Hope you're right PA4.

I think it's a game that we need Clay Matthews to take over. If Ryan has time and gets into a rythym back there, I see him picking us apart like Drew Brees did a couple years ago on primetime in New Orleans.

But Matthews can blow everything up. He's due for a hat trick.

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Old 11-28-2010, 12:11 PM    (permalink
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Anyone got a good link?
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Old 11-28-2010, 01:24 PM    (permalink
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Zombo gets the sack but Matthews was held like a mo-fo on that 3rd and short.
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Old 11-28-2010, 01:38 PM    (permalink
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I know he didn't get the first, but it's still good to see Nance keep going after it looked like he was stopped right away.
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Old 11-28-2010, 01:39 PM    (permalink
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home field advantage for the lose

2 spots should have been firsts now
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Old 11-28-2010, 01:46 PM    (permalink
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Damn these really are some dirty birds. I've seen at least 3 holds, a facemask, they pile on Trammon during that punt return, and now shove Swain when he was clearly out of bounds.
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Old 11-28-2010, 01:52 PM    (permalink
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******* pathetic playcalling and execution in the red zone today. PATHETIC
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