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View Poll Results: Which team won't make the playoffs?
Bears 18 23.68%
Packers 17 22.37%
Eagles 6 7.89%
Giants 29 38.16%
Saints 6 7.89%
Voters: 76. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-05-2010, 11:15 PM    (permalink
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Default The Fascinating NFC Playoff Race

While everyone is talking about the two gigantic AFC matchups, the fact is the AFC playoff race is pretty simple. The Steelers, Jets, Patriots, and Ravens would need to have epic meltdowns in order to miss out on the party. There are no real wild card threats. The intriguing races are pretty much San Diego and Oakland chasing KC in the AFC West and Indy chasing Jacksonville (LOLZ) in the AFC South.

But the NFC is ******* nuts.

One of the following five teams will miss the playoffs (I'm going to give Atlanta the automatic berth because they already have 10 wins and get Carolina twice)...

Bears: 9-4
@ MIN
vs NYJ
@ GB

Packers: 8-6

vs NYG
vs CHI

Eagles: 10-4
vs MIN
vs DAL

Giants: 9-5
@ GB
@ WAS

Saints: 10-4
@ ATL
vs TB

Which team won't get in?

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Old 12-05-2010, 11:39 PM    (permalink
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The loser of the Giants-Packers game will miss the playoffs. The Saints will likely finish 11-5, although all of their next games are losable. The Bears need only beat Minnesota and one of their other games. My pick is the Packers will win because they are at home, leaving the Giants on the outside looking in.
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Old 12-05-2010, 11:46 PM    (permalink
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Isn't it funny how two teams that will factor in this in a big way as spoilers are Dallas and Minnesota - both of whom most picked to make the playoffs?

I love Vick, but that Philly schedule is no picnic.

I could see the final playoff berth coming down to PHI @ NYG.

Three things to remember about the Giants: 1) The possibility of swirling winds in NY 2) The fact that Eli plays better on the road and 3) Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith should be back next week.

But gun to my head I say the BEARS miss out. It's very possible they go 0-4 and if they go 3-1, the Giants have the tiebreaker... (although CHI does have the tiebreaker on Philly)

It's going to be awesome down the stretch.
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Old 12-05-2010, 11:48 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
The loser of the Giants-Packers game will miss the playoffs. The Saints will likely finish 11-5, although all of their next games are losable. The Bears need only beat Minnesota and one of their other games. My pick is the Packers will win because they are at home, leaving the Giants on the outside looking in.
It's almost certainly going to be either the Giants, Packers, or Bears.

I'm going with the Giants because they probably have the hardest remaining schedule (Eagles, Packers, 'skins, Vikings.) Although the Bears and Packers both have brutal remaining schedules, too.

The winner of the Giants-Packers game is likely to be in the loser out, although the Packers could lose and beat the Bears week 17 and get in via tiebreakers while the Bears fall out (Giants would get in because of beating both Pack and Bears and then the division tiebreakers come into play, hard to say who that would favor right now.)

Packers must beat Giants and/or Bears and the Bears must beat Minny or GB to make the playoffs (if the Bears beat Minny, lose one of the other two, and the Packers lose against the Giants and beat the Bears week 17, the Bears will get the tiebreaker; if the Bears lose to Minny, lose to one of the other two, and the Packers lose against Giants and beat the Bears week 17 they'll get the tiebreaker.)
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Old 12-05-2010, 11:49 PM    (permalink
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AFC is much more interesting. Also, I'll vote Saints, that schedule is brutal.
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Old 12-05-2010, 11:56 PM    (permalink
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It'll be interesting. Also very interesting to think the Jaguars just need to beat the Colts to basically clinch the division. And the Chiefs just need to beat the Chargers to do the same (basically.) Crazy stuff.

Should be interesting to see if one of these teams suddenly loses their pace and falls out of the race. Most likely would be either the Eagles or the Giants, although both have looked good (mostly) of late.
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Old 12-05-2010, 11:57 PM    (permalink
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The 7-5 Bucs have the easiest remaining schedule of potential NFC playoff teams (@ Skins, Lions, Seahawks, @ Saints). If the Saints lock up the 5 seed and rest starters in week 17, that could be a 4-0 finish which should be good enough for a 6 seed.
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Old 12-06-2010, 12:01 AM    (permalink
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^Eh.

Not this year.

@WAS will likely be pretty tough for a team with no pass rush...

Even if they do win the next three you have to hope for a lot of help so that A) the two wild card teams don't have tiebreakers on you (DAL and MIN could help) and B) that everything breaks for the Saints to be locked in as the #5 AND they don't play to win (some coaches will go for it anyway).
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Old 12-06-2010, 12:05 AM    (permalink
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Our pass rush has come on recently but no one knows how bad Talib's injury is. Even without him, I think the Bucs are a better team than the Skins. The only game I am really worried about is the Saints game but we beat them in week 16 last year and are MUCH better now.
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Old 12-06-2010, 12:05 AM    (permalink
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Goodell basically made it so most teams will have to play the last games because they'll be division games.
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Old 12-06-2010, 12:07 AM    (permalink
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The Packers will have a difficult time making it over the Bears though. If they finish with the same record (which is likely) they'' probably also finish with the same divisional record (5-1 assuming Green Bay beats Chicago). The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents. Green Bay lost to Miami while Chicago won. Green Bay has to beat New England and the Giants, or it goes to the next tiebreaker. The Packers either have to hope the Bears lose the rest of their games or rely on the 5th or 6th tiebreaker. Very unlikely the Bears are the odd team out, especially with T-Jack probably starting for Minnesota the rest of the way.
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Old 12-06-2010, 12:10 AM    (permalink
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I think Eagles and Packers win their divisions. I like Green Bay to beat Chicago the last game to get a spot.

Of the rest I think the Giants miss the playoffs. They're already a game behind the Bears and Saints, and have 3 road games remaining, and their home game is a tough one agains Philly.

I think either Philly or New York misses the playoffs, and at this point I'm giving Philly the edge to get the division title.
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Old 12-06-2010, 12:16 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
I love Vick, but that Philly schedule is no picnic.
3 of the 4 games are against teams below .500. They have the easiest road of the 5. In terms of hardest remaining schedule I'd say it goes Bears, Saints Packers, Giants, Eagles.


Bears: 9-3
vs NE L
@ MIN W
vs NYJ W
@ GB L
11-5

Packers: 8-4
@ DET W
@ NE L
vs NYG W
vs CHI W
11-5

Eagles: 8-4
@ DAL W
@ NYG W
vs MIN W
vs DAL L
11-5

Giants: 8-4
@ MIN W
vs PHI L
@ GB L
@ WAS W
10-6

Saints: 9-3
vs STL W
@ BAL L
@ ATL W
vs TB W
12-4

Atlanta: 10-2
@ CAR W
@ SEA W
vs NO L
vs CAR W
13-3


Playoffs:
1. Atlanta
2. Green Bay
3. Philadelphia
4. Don't care, but I'll say Rams
5. New Orleans
6. Chicago

Lots of tiebreakers to deal with. Philadelphia beats out New York on the first tiebreaker, head to head. Green Bay beats out Chicago with the fourth tiebreaker, conference games. Green Bay beats out Philadelphia for the 2 seed with head to head. Chicago takes the 6 seed
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Old 12-06-2010, 12:24 AM    (permalink
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The Packers will have a difficult time making it over the Bears though. If they finish with the same record (which is likely) they'' probably also finish with the same divisional record (5-1 assuming Green Bay beats Chicago). The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents. Green Bay lost to Miami while Chicago won. Green Bay has to beat New England and the Giants, or it goes to the next tiebreaker. The Packers either have to hope the Bears lose the rest of their games or rely on the 5th or 6th tiebreaker. Very unlikely the Bears are the odd team out, especially with T-Jack probably starting for Minnesota the rest of the way.
I disagree that the Packers are at that much of a disadvantage. I don't have all of the losses in front of me, but I do know that if the Jets beat the Bears, that will help the Packers (GB beat NYJ). A GB win against the Giants would also make up for the Miami game. And see what they both do against NE...

I don't think GB has to hope the Bears lose the rest of their games at all.

EDIT: And looking over it, the Packers would probably have the tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record. If common opponents is tied (if they don't get it there with NYJ, NYG, NE opportunities), the next tiebreaker is strength of victory and both teams will have beaten pretty much the same # of wins except GB beat the NINERS and the Bears beat the PANTHERS. And that's assuming the Bears beat the Jets - if they don't beat the Jets, there's no way they would have beaten more wins than GB.

So essentially, the BEARS need to match the Packers win for win - because if they are tied, the Packers have the advantage (all of this of course is assuming the Pack can beat them at home in Week 17).

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Old 12-06-2010, 12:40 AM    (permalink
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I disagree that the Packers are at that much of a disadvantage. I don't have all of the losses in front of me, but I do know that if the Jets beat the Bears, that will help the Packers (GB beat NYJ). A GB win against the Giants would also make up for the Miami game. And see what they both do against NE...

I don't think GB has to hope the Bears lose the rest of their games at all.
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Easiest one of course. Bears can't lose this, only tie. If the Bears win it's over, if the Packers win keep going
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
So far they're both undefeated against the Lions and Vikings, and to get to this tiebreaker they would have split their games against each other, so unless Green Bay loses to Detroit or Chicago loses to Minnesota, this one's meaningless
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
We're in the same division so all our games except for two are common games. We've both played our non-common games already and both went 1-1. If we have the same record, we'll have the same record in common games. This one is completely meaningless. No chance at all this one can come into play.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
So far we each have 3 losses to NFC teams. Unless we lose to New York this one is meaningless
5. Strength of victory. Really hard to predict this. Can't know until the end of the season
6. Strength of schedule. Atlanta+San Fransisco vs Carolina+Seattle, goes to Green Bay
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. Probably Packers
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. Probably Packers
9. Best net points in common games. Probably Packers
10. Best net points in all games. Probably Packers
11. Best net touchdowns in all games. Probably Packers
12. Coin toss 50-50
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Old 12-06-2010, 12:42 AM    (permalink
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3 of the 4 games are against teams below .500. They have the easiest road of the 5. In terms of hardest remaining schedule I'd say it goes Bears, Saints Packers, Giants, Eagles.


Packers: 8-4
@ DET W
@ NE L
vs NYG W
vs CHI W
11-5


Giants: 8-4
@ MIN W
vs PHI L
@ GB W
@ WAS W
11-5
You have both the Giants and Packers winning the game, unless I read this wrong.
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Old 12-06-2010, 12:44 AM    (permalink
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You have both the Giants and Packers winning the game, unless I read this wrong.
Nice catch, that was supposed to be a loss for New York.

I guess I change my vote to the Giants.
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Old 12-06-2010, 12:53 AM    (permalink
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1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Easiest one of course. Bears can't lose this, only tie. If the Bears win it's over, if the Packers win keep going
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
So far they're both undefeated against the Lions and Vikings, and to get to this tiebreaker they would have split their games against each other, so unless Green Bay loses to Detroit or Chicago loses to Minnesota, this one's meaningless
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
We're in the same division so all our games except for two are common games. We've both played our non-common games already and both went 1-1. If we have the same record, we'll have the same record in common games. This one is completely meaningless. No chance at all this one can come into play.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
So far we each have 3 losses to NFC teams. Unless we lose to New York this one is meaningless
5. Strength of victory. Really hard to predict this. Can't know until the end of the season
6. Strength of schedule. Atlanta+San Fransisco vs Carolina+Seattle, goes to Green Bay
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. Probably Packers
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. Probably Packers
9. Best net points in common games. Probably Packers
10. Best net points in all games. Probably Packers
11. Best net touchdowns in all games. Probably Packers
12. Coin toss 50-50
It's not hard to predict strength of victory. I just did it a few posts above. The Packers would have it unless the Bears beat the Pats, the Packers lost to the Pats AND the Pats win two or three more games than the Jets (assuming the Jets beat the Bears - if the Bears win vs NE + beat Jets there's probably no way there's a tiebreaker *MIN which would give GB division). Also, a win against the Giants would clinch it (this is all under the umbrella of the Pack beating CHI in W17 and finishing with the same record).

That's not exact, but it's close. Bottom line is, the Pack would win strength of victory due to the Niners - Panthers situation.

EDIT: And you are wrong about the common games. The Packers can get it there if they accomplish two out of the three:

1) Beat NE + CHI loses to NE
2) Beat NYG
3) CHI loses to NYJ

Again, all under the umbrella of tied after GB wins in W17.

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Old 12-06-2010, 01:00 AM    (permalink
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Well there's just so much that factors into it that it's not as much of a sure thing as most of the other ones. But yeah, if you want to predict each game it could be calculated exactly based off the predictions.
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Old 12-06-2010, 01:00 AM    (permalink
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I just think the Bears schedule is too brutal. They have the hardest games. I know I might overrate the Jets and Pats and all, but they are tough. The Vikings, post-Chilly era on Monday night in the crapperdome will be hard. And then the Packers. They could be looking at 0-4. And all the others will win their games. And I acutally still think the Bucs get in instead of the Giants.
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Old 12-06-2010, 01:02 AM    (permalink
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Well there's just so much that factors into it that it's not as much of a sure thing as most of the other ones. But yeah, if you want to predict each game it could be calculated exactly based off the predictions.
Honestly I just did a lot of pointless math in my head and I'm 99.9% sure the Packers win the tiebreaker if it comes down to it... trust me lol
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Old 12-06-2010, 01:03 AM    (permalink
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Bears schedule is just too much, I'd be surprised if they even mustered 2-2
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Old 12-06-2010, 01:07 AM    (permalink
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And I acutally still think the Bucs get in instead of the Giants.
I can't see them beating the Saints, and I don't think they can get in with 10 wins. In my prediction I have 5 teams 11-5 or better. Even if 10 is good enough to get in, the Buccaneers would have 4 conference losses which would lose the tiebreaker for them.
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Old 12-06-2010, 01:11 AM    (permalink
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EDIT: And you are wrong about the common games. The Packers can get it there if they accomplish two out of the three:

1) Beat NE + CHI loses to NE
2) Beat NYG
3) CHI loses to NYJ

Again, all under the umbrella of tied after GB wins in W17.
Nope. 14 of our 16 games are against common opponents. We both went 1-1 in the non-common games. So if we end up with the same record that means we have to have had the same record in common games too.

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Honestly I just did a lot of pointless math in my head and I'm 99.9% sure the Packers win the tiebreaker if it comes down to it... trust me lol
I believe it. I'm just saying it's a lot more subject to change than the other tiebreakers.
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Old 12-06-2010, 01:13 AM    (permalink
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I just think the Bears schedule is too brutal. They have the hardest games. I know I might overrate the Jets and Pats and all, but they are tough. The Vikings, post-Chilly era on Monday night in the crapperdome will be hard. And then the Packers. They could be looking at 0-4. And all the others will win their games. And I acutally still think the Bucs get in instead of the Giants.
...how?

It's just extremely unlikely. The Bucs basically have to win by two games on the Giants because the GMen have the strength of victory tiebreaker on them.

Although if NYG lost to WAS + TB won every game except the NO game, they'd have the tiebreaker due to common opponents.

It's unlikely Tampa gets in over NY. The Giants are playing awesome right now anyway.
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