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View Poll Results: Which team won't make the playoffs?
Bears 18 23.68%
Packers 17 22.37%
Eagles 6 7.89%
Giants 29 38.16%
Saints 6 7.89%
Voters: 76. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-06-2010, 01:23 AM    (permalink
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Nope. 14 of our 16 games are against common opponents. We both went 1-1 in the non-common games. So if we end up with the same record that means we have to have had the same record in common games too.


I believe it. I'm just saying it's a lot more subject to change than the other tiebreakers.
You are right about the common games. That will be tied if they are tied.

But the strength of victory is the Packers if they are both tied in W17. In order for the Pack to be tied (and not have the division locked up), they'll need CHI to lose to NE or NYJ OR beat NYG or NE. and if any of those finish with more wins than Miami, the Pack get it.
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Old 12-06-2010, 03:26 AM    (permalink
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4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
So far we each have 3 losses to NFC teams. Unless we lose to New York this one is meaningless
If we beat the Bears they'll have 4. We'll have 3. We win the tiebreaker at this point. If we lose to the Giants but beat the Bears and they lose to Minny, we win the division tiebreaker and this tiebreaker.

So if we beat the Giants, the Bears, and the Lions we will win the division or conference tiebreaker. Unless I'm somehow missing something that's making you guys talk about strength of schedule and such.
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Old 12-06-2010, 08:09 AM    (permalink
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I haven't really seen this mentioned but it seems like everyone is just assuming the Eagles are in and it's between the Bears, Packers, and Giants (I agree Saints are in). The Eagles have to come to Giants Stadium and have to play the much more dedicated Cowboys twice. They haven't nearly locked up the East at all. I said a while ago the I'm very glad the Giants had the Skins twice down the stretch compared to the Eagles having the Cowboys twice.
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Old 12-06-2010, 08:19 AM    (permalink
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All my projections are pointing to the Week 17 match-up between Chicago and Green Bay to determine the division, the loser is out of the playoffs. I also wouldn't quite count Tampa out yet. Very possible they get in and Giants/Eagles don't.
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Old 12-06-2010, 08:33 AM    (permalink
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All my projections are pointing to the Week 17 match-up between Chicago and Green Bay to determine the division, the loser is out of the playoffs. I also wouldn't quite count Tampa out yet. Very possible they get in and Giants/Eagles don't.
I'm really hope Tampa doesn't make it. They're playing a ton better but they're just a notch above the NFC West teams. Who between them and Carolina they're 5-0 against.
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Old 12-06-2010, 08:34 AM    (permalink
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All my projections are pointing to the Week 17 match-up between Chicago and Green Bay to determine the division, the loser is out of the playoffs. I also wouldn't quite count Tampa out yet. Very possible they get in and Giants/Eagles don't.
I can't see the Bears not getting in. They probably lose to New England, but with the way Chicago is playing now, coupled with the fact that it is in Chicago with forecasted snow and wind, they could definitely win this game. Minnesota is a win. The Vikings will either start an injured Favre or a crappy T-Jack. I'm not sure which is better for the Bears. And people are saying they are now a really good team under Frazier now? They rallied around the guy to beat Washington and then beat the Bills. Wow! And their defense is just going to wreck Mark Sanchez at Soldier Field.

People are just assuming because it is Jay Cutler, the Bears will collapse. But they could seriously go 4-0 or 3-1 when just beating Minnesota and one of the other 3 games (2 of which are at home where they are 12-3 in December over the last 5 seasons), and they are in.
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Old 12-06-2010, 08:39 AM    (permalink
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I can't see the Bears not getting in. They probably lose to New England, but with the way Chicago is playing now, coupled with the fact that it is in Chicago with forecasted snow and wind, they could definitely win this game. Minnesota is a win. The Vikings will either start an injured Favre or a crappy T-Jack. I'm not sure which is better for the Bears. And people are saying they are now a really good team under Frazier now? They rallied around the guy to beat Washington and then beat the Bills. Wow! And their defense is just going to wreck Mark Sanchez at Soldier Field.

People are just assuming because it is Jay Cutler, the Bears will collapse. But they could seriously go 4-0 or 3-1 when just beating Minnesota and one of the other 3 games (2 of which are at home where they are 12-3 in December over the last 5 seasons), and they are in.
The Bears main problem with missing the playoffs is the loss to the Giants. If the Bears don't win the division, it's that loss that could keep them out. If I'm a Bears fan, I'd be rooting for the Giants to beat the Eagles in 2 weeks and win the division. Because you have the head to head win with the Eagles.
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Old 12-06-2010, 08:42 AM    (permalink
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I can't see the Bears not getting in. They probably lose to New England, but with the way Chicago is playing now, coupled with the fact that it is in Chicago with forecasted snow and wind, they could definitely win this game. Minnesota is a win. The Vikings will either start an injured Favre or a crappy T-Jack. I'm not sure which is better for the Bears. And people are saying they are now a really good team under Frazier now? They rallied around the guy to beat Washington and then beat the Bills. Wow! And their defense is just going to wreck Mark Sanchez at Soldier Field.

People are just assuming because it is Jay Cutler, the Bears will collapse. But they could seriously go 4-0 or 3-1 when just beating Minnesota and one of the other 3 games (2 of which are at home where they are 12-3 in December over the last 5 seasons), and they are in.
Let's say both the Pack and Bears lose to the Pats. Bears beat Vikings, lose to Jets. Packers lose to Giants. It still comes down to Week 17 game.

I'm even having the Giants lose to the Eagles, but I imagine the Giants can beat the Vikings and Redskins.
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Old 12-06-2010, 10:14 AM    (permalink
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Let's say both the Pack and Bears lose to the Pats. Bears beat Vikings, lose to Jets. Packers lose to Giants. It still comes down to Week 17 game.

I'm even having the Giants lose to the Eagles, but I imagine the Giants can beat the Vikings and Redskins.
That's the thing, I just can't see the Vikings beating the Bears. Maybe is is homerism on my part, but I just don't see it. Now if they beat the Giants on Sunday, then maybe I'll start buying into them. But everybody is right about the best thing for the Bears would be for the Giants to win the East. I guess I need to start cheering for the Cowboys to beat the Eagles.

Week 17 will probably have every NFC division up for grabs. I wonder how the NFL is going to choose which games to make Primetime.
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Old 12-06-2010, 10:22 AM    (permalink
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If you think about it, all of these teams in the hunt are already in a playoff atmosphere. Bc one slip up, and that could be your season.
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Old 12-06-2010, 10:25 AM    (permalink
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If the Bears manage to go 3-1 or 4-0 over their last four games, they probably are going to the Super Bowl.

At least we'll know by the end of the regular season how "real" the Bears are.
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Old 12-06-2010, 10:28 AM    (permalink
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I haven't really seen this mentioned but it seems like everyone is just assuming the Eagles are in and it's between the Bears, Packers, and Giants (I agree Saints are in). The Eagles have to come to Giants Stadium and have to play the much more dedicated Cowboys twice. They haven't nearly locked up the East at all. I said a while ago the I'm very glad the Giants had the Skins twice down the stretch compared to the Eagles having the Cowboys twice.
I agree with this.

People are looking at Dallas and Minnesota by their records when in reality, Frazier is 2-0 and Garrett is 3-1 (should be 4-0 if he kicks a FG against NO).

The Minny D is playing a LOT better and Dallas is running the football.

Most here are just assuming they won't get any wins to spoil the party. I definitely think Dallas and Minnesota will play a huge role down the stretch.
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Old 12-06-2010, 10:28 AM    (permalink
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I know we've been hit hard by injuries, but the Eagles and Giants always split the season series. Eagles already won their game, now it's our turn, which would mean we need to get two wins out of the other 3 games which is definitely doable, hell if we do get Nicks and Smith back we could even run the table from here.
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Old 12-06-2010, 10:31 AM    (permalink
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And for me, the Bears and the Bucs are pretenders...

The Bears lost to the freaking Seahawks at home, LOST to the Lions once (Calvin catch), and just struggled against Drew Stanton.

The Bucs haven't beaten anyone.

The game I can't get over is the Saints getting demolished by the Cards in NO. How the **** did that happen?
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Old 12-06-2010, 10:31 AM    (permalink
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I know we've been hit hard by injuries, but the Eagles and Giants always split the season series. Eagles already won their game, now it's our turn, which would mean we need to get two wins out of the other 3 games which is definitely doable, hell if we do get Nicks and Smith back we could even run the table from here.
Uhhh...no we don't. The Eagles have owned us the past 2 seasons.

The Eagles have owned us really for a long while, we'll win sporadically here and there, but they definitely have our number right now.
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Old 12-06-2010, 10:34 AM    (permalink
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And it's also funny that now all of the sudden the Saints are considered in because they have 9 wins. They barely beat the Cowboys/Bengals in consecutive weeks and all four of their upcoming games are pretty tough (don't sleep on the Rams).

2-2 does probably get them in, but a slip-up against St. Louis would mean trouble... Remember, the Saints had head-scratching losses at home to CLE and ARZ (lolz).

If they went 10-6, they'd likely be tied with another team for the wild card... then we go to H2H, Conference, SOV, etc.

There's no favorite here at all. All five of them could miss out EASILY.

Hence, fascinating.

It's gonna be fun.
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Old 12-06-2010, 10:42 AM    (permalink
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Uhhh...no we don't. The Eagles have owned us the past 2 seasons.

The Eagles have owned us really for a long while, we'll win sporadically here and there, but they definitely have our number right now.
shhhhh BBD, I'm rallying the board against the Gmen so that coach Coughlin can see this thread and tell the team that even SWDC is doubting them. That's a lock 2 wins. Championship.
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Old 12-06-2010, 10:51 AM    (permalink
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And for me, the Bears and the Bucs are pretenders...

The Bears lost to the freaking Seahawks at home, LOST to the Lions once (Calvin catch), and just struggled against Drew Stanton.

The Bucs haven't beaten anyone.

The game I can't get over is the Saints getting demolished by the Cards in NO. How the **** did that happen?
Division games are always close, so we can throw out those games. The Seattle game was troublesome, but that was before the Bears got their offensive line settled. Cutler was sacked 6 times and the leading rusher had 31 yards. If that game is played today, Chicago wins it no problem

Are we forgetting that the Bears have beaten the Packers and the Eagles. They are a good team. Last during their 5-game winning streak, Cutler has 10 TDs and 3 INTS while averaging 212 yards a game and completing 2/3rds of his passes. And the running game is coming along too. This isn't the same Bears team as the team that played Seattle and New York.
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Old 12-06-2010, 10:57 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
Division games are always close, so we can throw out those games. The Seattle game was troublesome, but that was before the Bears got their offensive line settled. Cutler was sacked 6 times and the leading rusher had 31 yards. If that game is played today, Chicago wins it no problem

Are we forgetting that the Bears have beaten the Packers and the Eagles. They are a good team. Last during their 5-game winning streak, Cutler has 10 TDs and 3 INTS while averaging 212 yards a game and completing 2/3rds of his passes. And the running game is coming along too. This isn't the same Bears team as the team that played Seattle and New York.
So throw out division games if you lose, if you win include them. Sounds reasonable.
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Old 12-06-2010, 11:48 AM    (permalink
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And it's also funny that now all of the sudden the Saints are considered in because they have 9 wins. They barely beat the Cowboys/Bengals in consecutive weeks and all four of their upcoming games are pretty tough (don't sleep on the Rams).

2-2 does probably get them in, but a slip-up against St. Louis would mean trouble... Remember, the Saints had head-scratching losses at home to CLE and ARZ (lolz).

If they went 10-6, they'd likely be tied with another team for the wild card... then we go to H2H, Conference, SOV, etc.

There's no favorite here at all. All five of them could miss out EASILY.

Hence, fascinating.

It's gonna be fun.
Does anyone look at the schedule? I have the Saints going 2-2 myself, but if they go 1-3 (beating Tampa Week 17,) then they still end up as the 6th seed if the favorites when elsewhere (Bears lose to Pats/Jets).

Saints hold a lot of tiebreakers here.
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Old 12-06-2010, 11:52 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
That's the thing, I just can't see the Vikings beating the Bears. Maybe is is homerism on my part, but I just don't see it. Now if they beat the Giants on Sunday, then maybe I'll start buying into them. But everybody is right about the best thing for the Bears would be for the Giants to win the East. I guess I need to start cheering for the Cowboys to beat the Eagles.

Week 17 will probably have every NFC division up for grabs. I wonder how the NFL is going to choose which games to make Primetime.
Did you read my post? I said if the Bears win against the Vikings and lose the other three, then they are out. It looks like Tampa, Philly, NYG all will have tiebreakers over Chicago in that scenario.
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Old 12-06-2010, 11:52 AM    (permalink
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So throw out division games if you lose, if you win include them. Sounds reasonable.
I'm not throwing out any loses. The Bears beat the Lions twice. But divisional games are always tough. Even when there is a great difference in talent. That is why the Jaguars always play the Colts close even though the last 3 or 4 seasons they have been much less talented.
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Old 12-06-2010, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by JETS5128 View Post
Bears schedule is just too much, I'd be surprised if they even mustered 2-2
I wouldn't be surprised if they went 2-2 or even 3-1.
It all depends on which Jay Cutler shows up.
He's been playing much better, their defense is solid, their special teams is capable of winning a game by itself, and they've been remarkably healthy this year.

They also have had a knack for getting to face opponents 3rd string QBs. :o)
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Old 12-06-2010, 12:04 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
That's the thing, I just can't see the Vikings beating the Bears. Maybe is is homerism on my part, but I just don't see it.
The Vikings could definitely beat the Bears in Minnesota.
If the QB position is stable for the Vikings that week (Bears rarely face team's #1 QB), then I suspect Vegas will have the Vikings as the favorite.

They're playing well now, the Grape Apes.
yesterday, they did what Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chicago, Kansas City didn't do, and that's just blow out the Buffalo Bills. When the Vikings are up for a game, at home, they're a tough tough out there.

Peterson & Sidney Rice looked like last year, yesterday.

The Vikings will beat at least one of their next 3 opponents (NYG, Chi, Philly), and they could easily win 2 of those games if the QB spot is settled.

This might be the first time in my life I will be a Viking fan 3 weeks in a row!
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Old 12-06-2010, 12:11 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Jvig43 View Post
AFC is much more interesting.
How? Everyone already knows the wildcard spots are going to whoever doesn't win the division out of the AFC East and AFC North. In the other 2 divisions it looks like Jax is the likely winner with the AFC West the only really division crown up for a lead.


NFC has these 5 teams who can miss the playoffs as well as whoever sucks the least out of the NFC West.



I have the Bears getting left out. Eventually not having an offensive line, running game, and Cutler throwing 5 picks a game(which everyone knows he's entitled to start doing again out of the blue) will make them losers to teams they shouldn't lose to.
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