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Old 12-07-2010, 03:28 PM    (permalink
Morton
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Default Predict the top 5 of the draft.

At this stage of the season, we have a pretty good idea of who will be drafting where and we also have an idea of what elite college players will be available to these teams come draft day.

Most of the draft is almost impossible to predict due to trades and teams reaching for questionable prospects which disrupts the rest of the draft, but the top five is usually fairly predictable.

So at this point, who do you think will be picking top five and which players do you think they will be targeting? Also, who do you personally think they SHOULD target, even if they end up picking someone else?

1. Carolina - It's a foregone conclusion at this point that the Panthers are picking first. They have no offense to speak of. None whatsoever. Jimmy Claussen looks absolutely terrible, and so does Matt Moore. The most obvious selection here is #1 QB prospect Andrew Luck. The question is - do they want to do the right thing and pick the QB or are they going to delude themselves into thinking that Jimmy Claussen is a franchise QB?

Will pick: Andrew Luck
Should pick: Andrew Luck


2. Cincinnati - I think that the Bengals will finish with the worst record. At any rate, it will either be Buffalo or Cincinnati vying for the #2 pick. The problem with the Bengals is that I don't know if they want to stick with Carson Palmer as their QB, or start anew with a different guy. They won't have a shot at Luck unless Carolina passes on him. So they could pick someone like a Ryan Mallett or a Cam Newton. In the end, however, I think they will keep Palmer and go either WR (if Owens is released) or DL (if they are not satisfied with the progress current group).

Will pick: Da'Quan Bowers
Should pick: Ryan Mallett

3. Buffalo - Buffalo will struggle to win many games down the stretch. They have a similar situation to Cincinnati in that they have a veteran QB who may or may not be the answer going forward. Fitzpatrick has shown the ability to win games and play reasonably well, but he will never be a blue-chip signal-caller in the NFL. Does Chan Gailey stick with him or target a replacement? Would they trade up for the #1 pick and select Luck, or maybe pick Cameron Newton or Jake Locker? If they stick with Fitzpatrick, you have to believe they will be picking a defensive playmaker. I think, in the end, however, Chan Gailey will shock the world and pick the next big thing in terms of NFL QBs, and he will fit Gailey's system well.

Will pick: Cameron Newton
Should pick: Nick Fairley

4. Arizona - Arizona could possibly be even worse than Buffalo and Cincinnati. I wouldn't actually be surprised if they "earn" the #2 overall pick, but I think that their ridiculous NFC West schedule will allow them to win one or two more games. The problem in Arizona is apparent. After the retirement of Kurt Warner, their QB situation could possibly be the worst in the NFL, maybe even worse than Carolina's. Derek Anderson and Max Hall have absolutely no business even being in an NFL team's practice facility. The Cardinals absolutely must make a play for one of the four QBs in this draft class. They won't be able to draft Luck, and I don't think they will trade up for him. So that means that Whisenhunt will have to decide whether he likes Newton, Mallett, or Locker best.

Will pick: Ryan Mallett
Should pick: Ryan Mallett

5. Detroit - This is an elite player or two on defense away from being a serious playoff contender. If Stafford's career isn't derailed by injuries, they have to be targeting a defensive playmaker in this year's draft. The two options for Detroit are either DB or DL. You can go the Patrick Peterson / Prince Amumakara route and obtain a shutdown corner for your backfield, or you can ratchet up the pass rush intensity to insane levels. Most people will claim that the Lions need to pick Peterson because he is the best CB prospect available. I would tend to agree, but I think that if they make a bold play for an elite defensive linemen it could turn their already potent pass rush into something amazing. Suh is a beast and will only get better, and Avril and Vanden Bosch are solid complements. Imagine if they picked an elite player such as Robert Quinn or Nick Fairley and put him on a line with Suh? It could be enough to give the Lions the best defensive line in football for the next 5+ years.

Will pick: Patrick Peterson
Should pick: Robert Quinn
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Old 12-07-2010, 04:07 PM    (permalink
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I don't understand your Bengals analysis at all. I know we haven't gotten much pass rush this year, and it is a huge concern, but it's something the Bengals have been trying to improve the last few years through the draft. Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap have shown flashes on passing downs in their 2nd & 1st year respectively. Add to the mix Antwan Odom, who has just had trouble staying healthy, and versatile veteran Robert Geathers, and you've got a somewhat deep DE rotation with some potential. Frostee Rucker is a decent player on running downs as well. Geno Atkins and Tank Johnson seem to be part of the Bengals developing pass-rush plan, which Pat Sims & Domata Peko are the run-stuffers. We're pretty deep & young on the DL, though we could definitely use an elite talent. That said, drafting Bowers would mean overloading one position and really sacrificing talent at another.

We'll likely go forward next year without Chad or T.O., meaning we're left with Jordan Shipley as our #1 receiver. That said, I am pretty sure Cincinnati will target either A.J. Green or Julio Jones with their Top 5-10 pick. Jones may be the better fit, but Green is the more polished & the player more likely to stretch the field, so take your pick.

I don't see any reason Ryan Mallett could be seen as a good fit in Cincinnati. Add a combustible personality to a team full of them? Not the best idea. Carson Palmer will remain the starting Quarterback and gives the team their only chance at the playoffs next season. A veteran QB is completely necessary for bringing along some of our young pieces on offense.

Our biggest holes next season will be WR, OG, and Safety.

Edit: T.O. won't need to be released, he signed a one-year deal. Hopefully we're not the highest bidder for him next year, I highly doubt we would be. To keep Chad we'd need to pick up his 6 million $ option, which he doesn't really deserve. I think getting Benson back, Joseph back, and Leon Hall extended have to be the teams top priorities in the offseason. If we can get that done, maybe we can pay Chad, but I'm 30/70 on him returning.
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Last edited by ThePudge : 12-07-2010 at 04:12 PM.
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Old 12-07-2010, 04:17 PM    (permalink
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1. Carolina - Andrew Luck
2. Cincy - AJ Green
3. Buffalo - Cam Newton
4. Arizona - Ryan Mallet
5. Detroit - Patrick Peterson
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Old 12-07-2010, 06:24 PM    (permalink
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. Carolina - AJ green
2. Cincy - Jones
3. Buffalo - Andrew Luck
4. Arizona - Jack Locker
5. Detroit - Patrick Peterson

Well I'm gonna be different and mix up the draft a little bit.And give props to the WR this year .
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Old 12-07-2010, 07:09 PM    (permalink
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Pudge, what does Palmer's contract look like... I think that's absolutely relevant.
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Old 12-07-2010, 07:41 PM    (permalink
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1. Carolina - A.J. Green
2. Buffalo - Andrew Luck
3. Cincy - Robert Quinn
4. Detroit - Patrick Peterson
5. Arizona - Prince Amukamara

Top-of-my-head, 30-second prediction.
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Old 12-07-2010, 09:39 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by RealityCheck View Post
1. Carolina - A.J. Green
2. Buffalo - Andrew Luck
3. Cincy - Robert Quinn
4. Detroit - Patrick Peterson
5. Arizona - Prince Amukamara

Top-of-my-head, 30-second prediction.
Do you think Carolina will stick with Jimmy Claussen? Especially if they bring in a new coach when John Fox leaves?

Why is Arizona passing on a QB, too? I mean, they literally have nobody that can be even an average NFL QB on their roster right now. I guess they could sign a free agent QB of some kind, but I really don't see anyone decent out there except perhaps McNabb if he's cut by Washington...
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Old 12-07-2010, 10:09 PM    (permalink
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If Luck stays in Stanford:
Carolina- AJ Green WR
Cincinnati-Patrick Peterson CB/FS
Arizona- Ryan Mallett QB
Denver- Marcel Dareus DE/DT
Buffalo- Cam Newton QB

If Luck Declares, AJ Green might be in for a drop, unless somebody trades up with Arizona or Buffalo to nab him. I figure that Buffalo and Detroit can win one more, so Denver slides into the top 5.
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Old 12-08-2010, 01:19 AM    (permalink
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Pudge, what does Palmer's contract look like... I think that's absolutely relevant.
He's signed through 2014. The team would have to take a big cap hit to trade or cut him, something I doubt theyd really consider anyway.
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Old 12-08-2010, 01:26 AM    (permalink
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1. Carolina - Andrew Luck
2. Cincinatti - Marcel Dareus
3. Denver - Nick Fairley
4. Buffalo - Cam Newton
5. Arizona - Ryan Mallet
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Old 12-08-2010, 01:36 AM    (permalink
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He's signed through 2014. The team would have to take a big cap hit to trade or cut him, something I doubt theyd really consider anyway.
If they have a shot at a QB, there's no way they can pass.

They'll take the hit or he'll restructure and play mentor.

They'll likely hire a new head coach and follow the new HC/QB model that has been working so well recently (Ryan/Smith, Sanchez/Ryan, Freeman/Morris, etc.)

And I know Brown is notoriously cheap. There comes a point where you can't pass on a possible franchise QB, especially considering you don't have one.
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Old 12-08-2010, 07:42 AM    (permalink
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If they have a shot at a QB, there's no way they can pass.

They'll take the hit or he'll restructure and play mentor.

They'll likely hire a new head coach and follow the new HC/QB model that has been working so well recently (Ryan/Smith, Sanchez/Ryan, Freeman/Morris, etc.)

And I know Brown is notoriously cheap. There comes a point where you can't pass on a possible franchise QB, especially considering you don't have one.
When you're looking into going into next season with Jordan Shipley as your #1 receiver and A.J. Green/Julio Jones are available when they pick, it's got to be WR. Carson Palmer's still under contract for a bit and it would be costly for a new regime to get rid of him. The team could actually have hopes to make the playoffs next season if they patch up their current hole at WR. Receiver play alone has lost us three-four games easily this season. I know it'd be nice to have a complete overhaul including bringing in a promising young QB, but I know that won't happen this year.
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Old 12-08-2010, 09:45 AM    (permalink
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They will still have Ochocinco though, next year, right? Why wouldn't they keep the face of their franchise around as their #1 WR for at least 1-2 more years?
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Old 12-08-2010, 09:49 AM    (permalink
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They will still have Ochocinco though, next year, right? Why wouldn't they keep the face of their franchise around as their #1 WR for at least 1-2 more years?
The face of the franchise wears #9.
The mouth wears #85.

He has an option I believe. Dont know if we would take it.
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Old 12-08-2010, 10:05 AM    (permalink
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The face of the franchise wears #9.
The mouth wears #85.

He has an option I believe. Dont know if we would take it.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but when ever anyone brings up the Bengals, I think most people will immediately think of Ochocinco.

Just the way it is. He's to the Benglas what, say, Adrian Peterson is to the Vikings, or Larry Fitzgerald is to the Cardinals.
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Old 12-08-2010, 10:10 AM    (permalink
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Sorry to burst your bubble, but when ever anyone brings up the Bengals, I think most people will immediately think of Ochocinco.

Just the way it is. He's to the Benglas what, say, Adrian Peterson is to the Vikings, or Larry Fitzgerald is to the Cardinals.
Talk to people in Cincy. The face is Carson. The mouth is Chad.
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Old 12-08-2010, 03:03 PM    (permalink
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Do you think Carolina will stick with Jimmy Claussen? Especially if they bring in a new coach when John Fox leaves?

Why is Arizona passing on a QB, too? I mean, they literally have nobody that can be even an average NFL QB on their roster right now. I guess they could sign a free agent QB of some kind, but I really don't see anyone decent out there except perhaps McNabb if he's cut by Washington...
Carolina will be stupid and stick with Clausen, because he's so awesome! Not.

And are Mallett and Newton really Top 5 picks??
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Old 12-08-2010, 03:28 PM    (permalink
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Carolina will be stupid and stick with Clausen, because he's so awesome! Not.

And are Mallett and Newton really Top 5 picks??
I don't know if Mallett and Newton are, talent-wise, fit to be considered "top 5" picks, but the fact of the matter is that most of the QB-hungry teams this year will be picking in the top 5.

Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, etc all need a QB baaaad.
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