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Old 02-18-2011, 03:37 PM    (permalink
yourfavestoner
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Originally Posted by Ghost of Juice View Post
So you're saying if the saints could redo their number 2 overall pick knowing what they know about the players in that draft they would still take bush? Because that would be crazy of them to do that and pass on a player like Haloti Ngata or MJD.
I love your username so ******* much.
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Old 02-19-2011, 06:25 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
I remember thinking Brady Quinn was the next Tom Brady. I don't think I ever was THAT wrong about a qb prospect ever.
In your defense, and Scott's, I truly believe that had Quinn gone to the right situation, he could have turned into a good NFL QB by now, and I hate Notre Dame and never liked Quinn.

Sometimes a QB can be on a dead team and look crappy for years.... see Steve Young in Tampa, Kurt Warner in New York off the top of my head. Doesn't mean they were bad QBs.

I wonder if there's a situation for Quinn out there right now. Matt Leinart too.
He actually looked decent his rookie year, I clearly remember, despite that less-than-strong southpaw arm.
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Old 02-19-2011, 06:29 PM    (permalink
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I think Denny Green getting fired really screwed Leinart. He was drafted for a west coast offense and looked pretty solid as a rookie. Wisenhunt wanted a different offense and Leinart couldn't cut it afterwards.
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Old 02-19-2011, 06:36 PM    (permalink
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I think Denny Green getting fired really screwed Leinart. He was drafted for a west coast offense and looked pretty solid as a rookie. Wisenhunt wanted a different offense and Leinart couldn't cut it afterwards.
I am still curious how things would have turned out had the Titans taken Leinart. I wonder if having Norm Chow as his OC would have made things different.
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Old 02-19-2011, 07:08 PM    (permalink
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It could. Little things like that, especially at the start of guys careers can make or break them. Leinart's problem has always been his dedication to the game and not being a douche bag, so it might not have mattered much.
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Old 02-19-2011, 07:12 PM    (permalink
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It could. Little things like that, especially at the start of guys careers can make or break them. Leinart's problem has always been his dedication to the game and not being a douche bag, so it might not have mattered much.
Obviously this is hindsight, but he was a below average/marginal physical talent who lacked mental toughness and a strong work ethic. He couldn't get it done with Fitz and Boldin so I doubt he could of gotten it done with the poor WR core Tennessee had. Leinart just wasn't very good. I doubt he would of had much success regardless of where he went.
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Old 02-19-2011, 07:47 PM    (permalink
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About Reggie Bush - I don't think he's a major bust. But I saw it coming, him not being a good even dominant NFL RB.

One thing that helped me with that was, when he wanted his USC #5 in the NFL
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Old 02-19-2011, 11:13 PM    (permalink
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Lol at the Bush bashing. Come on he was a one dimensional player, pure speed. He could never compete on the NFL level at the ability everyone expected him to. In fact I was happy to see the Texans pass on him.
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Old 02-20-2011, 01:28 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by MidwayMonster31 View Post
I think Denny Green getting fired really screwed Leinart. He was drafted for a west coast offense and looked pretty solid as a rookie. Wisenhunt wanted a different offense and Leinart couldn't cut it afterwards.
Good points. I know Leinart is a prick and not rocket-armed or anything, and I don't like him either, but other jerks and other QBs with minimal arms have succeeded just fine in the NFL.

I think losing the Sherriff did hurt Matt Leinart. Still, I have no sympathy for the idiot because he should have come out after his junior year.

Also, I continue to LOL at the Reggie Bush-bashers!
Every single other team would secretly love to have a weapon like Bush, even if he's not a 250-carry guy.
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Old 02-20-2011, 02:03 PM    (permalink
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Every single other team would secretly love to have a weapon like Bush, even if he's not a 250-carry guy.
Every team in the league would like to have a kicker who makes 65% of his kicks from 50+, doesn't mean you should pick that guy in the first round.
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Old 02-20-2011, 02:18 PM    (permalink
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Every team in the league would like to have a kicker who makes 65% of his kicks from 50+, doesn't mean you should pick that guy in the first round.
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Old 02-20-2011, 02:26 PM    (permalink
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Right, neither the Saints or Raiders (SeBas) seem to regret their pick.
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Old 02-20-2011, 02:37 PM    (permalink
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Right, neither the Saints or Raiders (SeBas) seem to regret their pick.
Just because you don't regret a pick, doesn't mean that a player is a disappointment. If you gave the Saints the chance to redo the 2006 draft with perfect knowledge of the future as it unfolded when they took Bush, I really doubt that they would take him again at #2.

Bust? No. Bush is a useful player. Disappointing and seriously overrated as a prospect by almost everybody in the business? Absolutely.

"Is useful" and "other teams would like him" are a useful test for evaluating whether a prospect lived up to expectations, but it's far from definitive. How many teams, seriously, do you think would have taken Bush if they held the #2 pick and could see how things turned out in our timeline?

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Old 02-20-2011, 03:04 PM    (permalink
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So as far as I can see in 6 pages of thread, folks have managed to pick out about 5 - 10 players tops. Out of the 1000 plus players picked in the life of this board it is pretty good.
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Old 02-20-2011, 03:10 PM    (permalink
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So as far as I can see in 6 pages of thread, folks have managed to pick out about 5 - 10 players tops. Out of the 1000 plus players picked in the life of this board it is pretty good.
I don't think anybody is really all that interested in doing an exhaustive list, to be honest.

I mean, does anybody really care that Scott had Kellen Winslow Jr., Roy Williams, Robert Gallery, Reggie Williams, Mike Williams, and DeAngelo Hall in his top 10 in 2004? None of those guys worked out for the team that drafted him.

That Aaron Gibson (ranked #9 in 1999)? Hell of a (five-year) career. Maybe he's good in Arena Ball, but back then this site used to be called NFLdraftcountdown.com and not AFLdraftcountdown.com.

Everybody misses on guys like this all the time. It's no big deal.

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Old 02-20-2011, 03:59 PM    (permalink
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based on what, exactly?
What?
The Raiders don't regret picking SeBas obviously, and the Saints have made sure they have kept Bush now thru 4 years when real busts are sent packing well before then.
Again, LOL at anyone who calls Reggie Bush a bust.
I can find many many #2 picks over the past 2 decades who's body of work makes Bush's body of work thru 4-years look HOF worthy.
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Old 02-20-2011, 04:21 PM    (permalink
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What?
The Raiders don't regret picking SeBas obviously, and the Saints have made sure they have kept Bush now thru 4 years when real busts are sent packing well before then.
Again, LOL at anyone who calls Reggie Bush a bust.
I can find many many #2 picks over the past 2 decades who's body of work makes Bush's body of work thru 4-years look HOF worthy.
So you don't think the Raiders regret passing on Chad Pennington, Keith Bullock or Shaun Alexander for a kicker?
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Old 02-20-2011, 04:33 PM    (permalink
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So you don't think the Raiders regret passing on Chad Pennington, Keith Bulluck or Shaun Alexander for a kicker?
The misspelling of this name has haunted me for years. It even happened in local papers for some obscene reason so I can't get mad at you too much.
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Old 02-20-2011, 05:05 PM    (permalink
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So you don't think the Raiders regret passing on Chad Pennington, Keith Bullock or Shaun Alexander for a kicker?
By that logic, 98% of all draft picks are dissapointments.
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Old 02-20-2011, 07:59 PM    (permalink
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So you don't think the Raiders regret passing on Chad Pennington, Keith Bullock or Shaun Alexander for a kicker?
Bulluck and Alexander yeah, but Janikowski is one of the greatest kickers of the decade and Pennington, well, was Pennington.
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Old 02-20-2011, 08:14 PM    (permalink
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By that logic, 98% of all draft picks are dissapointments.
Exactly.
And the Saints and Raiders would not have worked hard to keep those players around this long if they regretted taking the player, regardless of the spot they took him.

Let's not try and re-invent logic here.
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Old 02-20-2011, 08:16 PM    (permalink
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Bulluck and Alexander yeah, but Janikowski is one of the greatest kickers of the decade and Pennington, well, was Pennington.
Alexander on the Raiders those years might have just been a Thomas Jones or Cedric Benson or Timmy Biakabatuka.
Meanwhile, the Raiders keep paying SeBas and he's about as good as ever while Alexander is long gone.
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Old 02-20-2011, 08:30 PM    (permalink
San Diego Chicken
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It's very fair to call Bush a disappointment, but bust is a pretty big stretch. There's still hardly anyone, if there even is anyone, who possess his combination of skills in the return game, hands, route running, and blitz pickup. Saying things like Danny Woodhead or Darren Sproles can duplicate those skills just isn't right. Woodhead isn't a factor in the return game and Sproles does not catch the ball or run routes as well as Bush can.

Now there are obvious holes in his game, he's an inconsistent runner #1. Obviously he is a dissapointment there, at USC he was able to breeze through giant holes created by an elite offensive line that just don't exist in the NFL. The space is much tighter and Bush has trouble breaking arm tackles inside of the hole. #2, Bush is injury prone. Nuff said there, he's not on the field enough.

If there were a re-do of the 2006 draft Bush would not go #2, but he would go in the first round (likely back half of the first round) in my opinion. I'm going to go to stats to back this up:

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...2006/draft.htm

If we're simply limiting it to offensive skill players, Bush ranks in the top 10 of his draft class in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Fair here to say that Bush is one of the top handful of RB's or WR's in the 2006 draft.

Now if we're talking about all players in that draft class I'm going to go with a more advanced stat, weighted career approx. value, where Bush ranks #17 among all players in his draft class.

I really think I'm going to be flamed for using this stat so here's a disclaimer, by no means am I saying Bush is better than every player he's ranked higher than in this category. Take it as a general ranking to gauge approximately what level of player Bush is. I can already hear the teeth gnashing and the grumblings but at least it's something.

Half of the problem with Bush is his perception in the media and the level of attention he gets which understandably gets under the skin of many folks here. The other major thing is he was drafted #2 overall which is a very difficult draft position to live up to, especially according to the weighted AV. If you cycle through the past drafts and index the classes by AV, the hall of fame and perennial pro bowlers float right to the top of the list So the expectation is that someone drafted as the #1 or #2 pick is expected to be a hall of fame or borderline hall of fame player. I don't think I need to underscore how difficult that is to live up to.

There are lots of in depth discussions about AV on football reference.com, and like I said it's far from an end all be all. However, it's a pretty useful tool, especially to gauge the strength of draft classes. (For example, 1992 was a horrible draft class according to the AV - Jimmy Smith is the highest ranked player from that draft and he has no chance at the HOF)

Just some thoughts and I can't wait to hear some feedback especially from some of the vehemently anti-Bush crowd.
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Old 02-20-2011, 11:06 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by J-Mike88 View Post
Exactly.
And the Saints and Raiders would not have worked hard to keep those players around this long if they regretted taking the player, regardless of the spot they took him.

Let's not try and re-invent logic here.
Huh? The major question of New Orleans' offseason is whether they're going to bring him back at the exorbitant $12 million pricetag he carries into this next season.
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Old 02-21-2011, 07:52 AM    (permalink
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Huh? The major question of New Orleans' offseason is whether they're going to bring him back at the exorbitant $12 million pricetag he carries into this next season.
Right, this will be his 5th year.
They 100% want him back, as Green Bay wants AJ Hawk back 100% but he has a ridiculously high $ on the books for 011, but you're talking about silly cap #'s..... not busts.

People love to throw the word "bust" around these days. Guys like Bush may not have lived up to some people's unrealistic expectations, but he's certainly no bust. He's exactly who Scott said he was and he's been good enough that the Saints definitely want to keep him.
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