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Old 02-21-2011, 10:53 PM    (permalink
asdf1223
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I think Football outsiders gave the best stat here
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Since the Saints drafted Bush in 2006, they've averaged 26.5 points per game while Bush is in the lineup. Bush has missed 18 games through injury; in those 18 games, New Orleans averaged 28.9 points, nearly 2.5 points more per game.
This is crude since this doesn't take in to account opponents or Bush's individual contribution but this Saints need Bush to have an explosive offence thing is a bad myth.
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Old 02-21-2011, 11:10 PM    (permalink
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Reggie runs fine between the tackles when we hold our ground, he's not going to slam his way into a back of a pile and get 4 yards per carry from nothing, but if the hole opens up, he's dangerous.

Again with the "outproduced by two UDFAs" thing, like Thomas and Ivory aren't better than most tandems.

It's still false too, Reggie's YPC over the past two years is higher than both of them, even with the injuries, and his touchdown rate has always been higher.

But still, Ivory and Pierre Thomas are outstanding runners, I dunno why they are used as detriments, the only negative you can say about either of them is that Ivory knows nothing about hte passing game, and they both get hurt almost as much as Reggie does. Ivory in particular has the tools to be a special runner, have you watched this guy lately? He's a size/speed nightmare, and is flat out nasty.

Like I said in the first like, he won't produce at all in the running game unless you have a decent line, but if you are opening up running lanes and getting him into the second level and letting him do what he does best, make people miss, he'll be highly highly productive as a runner.

Guess it just depends what you like, if the line isn't opening up gaps, and we need 3-4 yards, Thomas is definitely going to be a better option, he can break tackles before he even gains steam, and he'll drag out extra yards. But if your line does the job and gets the guys to the second level, Reggie is a better runner after that. He really doesn't have the leg drive to take something from nothing, but once he gets his steam built up, his momentum carries him through arm tackles, and he's way more than strong enough to lay the hammer on DBs.

I think 09 showed the type of scheme he should be in for the best results(running wise), and that's a pure power scheme, without all the fancy stuff Sean Payton used to try to do.

I don't have a stat, but I bet Bush's YPC on toss plays is much much much worse than when he lines up directly behind the fullback and an extra blocker is brought in, and they just run him right between the guard and tackle.

As for the stat where we score more points with Bush, that might be true, but I feel like we get way more aggressive without Bush and we lose our safe play, and are forced off the field more often, and forced into more turnovers, and we end up trying to play catch up. When Reggie and Pierre are both their, we might score less points, but it's because we run, and we used our little 6-7 yard RB throw underneath that is nearly automatic.


Still want to see him utilized more as a downfield receiver, we never run him downfield because we always want him there to play it safe if Brees gets in trouble, but the few times he's gone downfield that I can remember, he always makes a play.

Do it more, at least let him run a fly pattern, haha.
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Old 02-22-2011, 12:49 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
Again with the "outproduced by two UDFAs" thing, like Thomas and Ivory aren't better than most tandems.
I still fail to see how that has anything to do with the point. Saints used the #2 overall pick on Bush yet found two Undrafted RB's who are more complete and more productive RB's then he is.


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It's still false too, Reggie's YPC over the past two years is higher than both of them, even with the injuries, and his touchdown rate has always been higher.


Let me guess, your going to ignore the fact that he ran the ball 36 times in 2010, and 70 in 2009? I guess we should marvel at the fact that he finally had a decent YPC with so few carries.




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But still, Ivory and Pierre Thomas are outstanding runners, I dunno why they are used as detriments, the only negative you can say about either of them is that Ivory knows nothing about hte passing game, and they both get hurt almost as much as Reggie does. Ivory in particular has the tools to be a special runner, have you watched this guy lately? He's a size/speed nightmare, and is flat out nasty.

They are brought up to prove mostly how it's possible for a RB to be productive in NO. Pierre ran for over 600 yards twice and averaged 4.8 YPC or better 3 seasons. Ivory had a better season running the ball this year then Bush ever will. These guys run behind the exact same line that your going out of your way to make excuses for as to why Bush can't suceed. Sure are alot of excuses for such a high draft pick.




I don't think Bush is a terrible player what so ever, but why all the excuses? His rushing totals have been pathetic since he became a pro, he's an excellent weapon out of the backfield catching the ball no doubt, but if NO knew this is what they were gonna get they would have passed.



You can get a guy like Reggie Bush all through the draft, Dexter McCluster isn't much different. His receptions are the 1 thing you can point out and say "look how many passes he caught he's productive" but in reality when your in an offense that has Drew Brees throwing nearly 700 times, and nearly every one of those passes are in the backfield, I'm really not seeing what here is to get excited about other then the punt returns.
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 02-22-2011, 02:37 AM    (permalink
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Let me guess, your going to ignore the fact that he ran the ball 36 times in 2010, and 70 in 2009? I guess we should marvel at the fact that he finally had a decent YPC with so few carries.
Yards per carry is easily one of the most misleading stats in football, especially with low numbers of carries. A guy carries 12 times for 1 yard each over the course of a game, and then in the fourth quarter he breaks a 68 yard TD run. 6.15 yards per carry! Amazing!

It's one of those stats that's really only useful for telling us who isn't very good at running the ball, rather than who is.
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Old 02-22-2011, 02:51 AM    (permalink
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I'm just basing it on the fact that he's a different runner than he was in pre 2008, I mean, it's not like people here would realize that because they don't really watch us play. It's not just his numbers, he just looks different, the numbers just back it up.

Haven't seen any evidence that more carries will lower Reggie's YPC at this point, he just will get broken.

I didn't realize that YPC is only usable when it's poor though, my mistake. Honestly, I see too many guys have crap games running the ball and get 20+ carries before they break off a 40 yarder and then it makes them look like they dominated. Guys that get 5 carries have much less time to establish any rhythm.

Everytime someone doesn't dump on a player, it's excuses. The dude ran like crap for a long time, but healthy over the last few seasons, he's run the ball well, amount of carries be damned.

Believe it or not, it's ok to say a guy has had a disappointing career but has been producing on his touches recently.
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Old 02-22-2011, 03:20 AM    (permalink
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YPC isn't a bad stat per se, it's just potentially a very misleading stat with low sample size.

I mean, for example, prior to the long touchdown run, in the playoff game against the Saints Marshawn Lynch was held to a somewhat pedestrian 3.55 YPC. After he scampers 67 yards, he shot up to 6.9 YPC. Did he have a great day? No... he a decent day, but he also hada great run.

If you look at a guy and he's got like 300 carries and he has like a 4.8 YPC, he's probably pretty good. If you look at a guy and he's got 50 carries, it's really impossible to tell anything from his YPC unless the YPC tally is pretty low. For a guy with 50 carries, two 60 yard TD runs which may have more to do with defensive incompetence than anything else can take a guy from a poor ~2 YPC to north of 4 YPC.

YPG is probably more meaningful than YPC for guys who don't get many touches. At least then it helps to indicate playmakers.

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Old 02-22-2011, 03:46 AM    (permalink
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Any stat can be misleading with small sample sizes, YPC is hardly unique in that.
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Old 02-22-2011, 08:47 AM    (permalink
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LOL@Reggie Bush not being a bust.


Nobody hates Reggie Bush, that's a.....


Bush was a key cog in their SB run, he's certainly useful to the Saints and helps open things up for players, but....
-Actually, plenty of people seem to hate Reggie Bush, as posts about him have demonstrated here many times. It appears that next to Tebow, there isn't a more polarizing player in the NFL in terms of threads on sites like this.

And this part you wrote yourself is contradictory to your Bush is a Bust label: "Bush was a key cog in their SB run, he's certainly useful to the Saints and helps open things up for players..."

That's not a description of "a bust".
Now look, he may have under-achieved for being such a highly-touted, and #2 overall pick.

But what Bush has done and meant to that team is not indicative of "a bust".

And it wasn't just the one Super Bowl, key cog.
He also helped lead them to an NFC Championship game his rookie season, where they lost at Chicago. He caught 88 passes, and rushed for 6 TDs that year. Not great, but obviously not "bust" statistics.

Big difference between "bust" and "not-up-to-some people's-expectations."
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Old 02-22-2011, 08:49 AM    (permalink
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I'm just basing it on the fact that he's a different runner than he was in pre 2008, I mean, it's not like people here would realize that because they don't really watch us play. It's not just his numbers, he just looks different, the numbers just back it up.
well hes getting less carries and the team has been better because of it (see guy above who posted ppg with/without bush). And the guy's numbers and role in the offense has decreased every year hes been there. so to me it looks like the coaches realize hes overrated too and doesnt bring the explosiveness theyd hoped for.

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Haven't seen any evidence that more carries will lower Reggie's YPC at this point, he just will get broken.
i dont see any that his YPC would stay the same with more carries either. though i do see some that if you increase his carries he'll get killed and not be on the field. still not really worth the number 2 overall pick. Thats what everyone is arguing, not sure why this is still a discussion. Its pretty clear he hasnt lived up to 'the next marshall faulk' billing scott gave him. which is what we're arguing.

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I didn't realize that YPC is only usable when it's poor though, my mistake. Honestly, I see too many guys have crap games running the ball and get 20+ carries before they break off a 40 yarder and then it makes them look like they dominated. Guys that get 5 carries have much less time to establish any rhythm.
hes supposed to be this big explosive weapon. the other guys in his backfield have more big plays than he does. not exactly how the #2 overall pick is supposed to work.

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Everytime someone doesn't dump on a player, it's excuses. The dude ran like crap for a long time, but healthy over the last few seasons, he's run the ball well, amount of carries be damned.
its easy to run well when he gets a few touches and hes done, doesnt have to worry about wear and tear huh? also, as i said before, the dude drops a whole lot more passes than anyone wants to admit. his hands are very inconsistent.

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Believe it or not, it's ok to say a guy has had a disappointing career but has been producing on his touches recently.
Exactly! he hasnt lived up to the number 2 overall pick. Hes a serviceable player, but not the superstar youd expect from the 2nd pick. thats the whole point.

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Right, so Bush doesn't deserve $12 mil, nobody would argue that outside of his agent and some family members.
good. so hes not worth big time money like, say, a great #2 pick should make?

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But that doesn't make him a bust or even close to it.

And bearsfan 51 is right. If a Bear & Packer fan agree 100% on something unrelated to either club, you really should realize you're misremembering what Bush has done and meant to his club. It must be the name "" that just brings the hate from certain people.
Ive never called him a bust. I said he's a dissappointment and wasnt worth he #2 pick.

bears/packers fans agreeing is 100% irrelevant.

when hes been out, the team hasnt missed a beat (actually been better according to the numbers), so i dont think im 'misremembering' anything.

i really dont get whats so hard to understand about this, he without a doubt hasnt lived up to Scott's expectations. He said he'd be the next marshall faulk. he hasnt been close to that, hes been very mediocre. not what you hope for at #2.
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Old 02-22-2011, 08:58 AM    (permalink
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#1- bears/packers fans agreeing is 100% irrelevant.

#2- when hes been out, the team hasnt missed a beat (actually been better according to the numbers), so i dont think im 'misremembering' anything.

#3- i really dont get whats so hard to understand about this, he without a doubt hasnt lived up to Scott's expectations. He said he'd be the next marshall faulk. he hasnt been close to that, hes been very mediocre. not what you hope for at #2.
#1- Curse you. Bears & Packer fans agreeing on something like this is always relevant.

#2- That's another misleading statistic. Here's what's more meaningful than some game stats: the 2 seasons that bush played the most (16 games in 2006 & 14 in 2009), the Saints advanced to the NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl. Coincidence? Ask Sean Payton, Drew Brees, and Marques Colston. And ask every defensive coordinator who gameplans against them. You might see Colston left wide open sometimes, or Pierre Thomas, but no defenses ever leave Bush unaccounted for.

#3- Scott says Bush has been who he thought he would be. Who are to argue what his thoughts were?
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Old 02-22-2011, 09:06 AM    (permalink
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#2- That's another misleading statistic. Here's what's more meaningful than some game stats: the 2 seasons that bush played the most (16 games in 2006 & 14 in 2009), the Saints advanced to the NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl. Coincidence? Ask Sean Payton, Drew Brees, and Marques Colston. And ask every defensive coordinator who gameplans against them. You might see Colston left wide open sometimes, or Pierre Thomas, but no defenses ever leave Bush unaccounted for. good point. but doesnt mean he was worth the top pick. and the issues on defense might have had something to do with those down years.

#3- Scott says Bush has been who he thought he would be. Who are to argue what his thoughts were?
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As yfs posted earlier

.........because he posted his thoughts on bush, thats why i know them.

he called him the next marshall faulk, an elite prospect, and top 3 overall pick. he envisioned a much better player than what weve gotten.
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Old 02-22-2011, 10:18 AM    (permalink
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Reggie's ability to run the ball now has about 0 to do with the amount of carries he takes.

It's a pretty stupid argument right now, Reggie's carries as a rookie weren't bad because he got a lot of them, they were bad because he was trying to do way too much and was getting himself in trouble and missing easy gains.

He's a totally different runner now, and no one wants to give him credit for that, other than saying "ONLY CUZ HE GOT LESS CARRIES".

J-Mike is partially right, people do refuse to give Reggie any credit once they have formed an opinion.

And my point isn't that he isn't disappointing, it's more against hte ZOMG CANT RUN BETWEEN TACKLEZZZZ, which shows clearly someone isn't watching.
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Old 02-22-2011, 10:46 AM    (permalink
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Reggie's ability to run the ball now has about 0 to do with the amount of carries he takes.

It's a pretty stupid argument right now, Reggie's carries as a rookie weren't bad because he got a lot of them, they were bad because he was trying to do way too much and was getting himself in trouble and missing easy gains.

He's a totally different runner now, and no one wants to give him credit for that, other than saying "ONLY CUZ HE GOT LESS CARRIES".

J-Mike is partially right, people do refuse to give Reggie any credit once they have formed an opinion.

And my point isn't that he isn't disappointing, it's more against hte ZOMG CANT RUN BETWEEN TACKLEZZZZ, which shows clearly someone isn't watching.
I dunno if you remember or not, but we actually had that conversation on here after the week one game against Minny. Even though he only got a couple of carries, I said he looked much more decisive as a runner, was actually breaking through arm tackles, and may have been ready to turn the corner.

And then he went and broke his leg the next week.
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Old 02-22-2011, 11:08 AM    (permalink
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I wonder how many more pages it will take for you morons to keep talking in circles, saying the same ******* thing over and over.


Anyway, Rey Maualuga to answer the topic. I believe Scott had him ranked 17th, or at least that's what he bragged about in a thread I made that bashed Rey Rey for being the worst of the USC trio of LBs, and an early second rounder.
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I honestly believe Reggie Bush has turned into exactly the type of player I envisioned.
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Old 02-22-2011, 11:16 AM    (permalink
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Reggie's ability to run the ball now has about 0 to do with the amount of carries he takes.
I disagree. Running the ball less means he has more energy and more to prove with his few carries. I think it also gives him more of a willingness to run hard, as he hasnt taken a hard hit yet. The more hard hits a guy like reggie takes, the less he wants to take him. I just think it works a bit better for him psychologically. Still, coming out he was expected to get more carries (not a lot but more than he is now) and be much more effective breaking big plays, which he also hasnt done (remember that first run in his first preseason game? damn he looks like hes lost so much confidence since then).

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It's a pretty stupid argument right now, Reggie's carries as a rookie weren't bad because he got a lot of them, they were bad because he was trying to do way too much and was getting himself in trouble and missing easy gains.
agreed. i think the difference between him in college and him now is that he added upper body strength to prove to people he was strong enough to handle carries, rather than embracing his role as a matchup problem and using his speed and cutting. not really relevant but something ive thought about him since he got to the league.

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He's a totally different runner now, and no one wants to give him credit for that, other than saying "ONLY CUZ HE GOT LESS CARRIES".
he is. my bad for not giving props. he definitely looked much more decisive in that season opening game, and much more willing to put his head down and just take what was there and take some contact. that said, i still didnt think he looked all that special, certainly not even close to pre draft hype special. which is the point of this whole thread. [EDIT: and yfs beat me to it. damnit.]

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J-Mike is partially right, people do refuse to give Reggie any credit once they have formed an opinion.
Have you read all of his arguments? Hes defending scott, who while i love the guy, said reggie has turned out exactly like he thought he would, which as proven time and time and time again by a number of people is incorrect. Bush has not lived up to what scott thought he'd be.

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And my point isn't that he isn't disappointing, it's more against hte ZOMG CANT RUN BETWEEN TACKLEZZZZ, which shows clearly someone isn't watching.
no, he really cant. but at least now hes showing that hes much more willing to try it and not as scared of contact. but hes still not effective there. not that he needs to be though.
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Old 02-22-2011, 11:21 AM    (permalink
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I didn't realize that YPC is only usable when it's poor though, my mistake.

Now where did anyone say that? YPC is usuable when you at least have a decent amount of carries. I don't consider 70 carries in a season a "decent" amount.




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#3- Scott says Bush has been who he thought he would be. Who are to argue what his thoughts were?

J-Mike what is your infatuation with "well Scott thinks it so there is no chance it's wrong, it's Scott"!!1!1!! I'm not sure why you continually bring him up, like that's the be all end all.


What point are you trying to make by constantly bringing Scott up?
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Old 02-22-2011, 11:39 AM    (permalink
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You people are really special. This argument has degraded to nothing but a semantical debate over the term "bust" rather then talking about players.

Who cares what arbitrary value you give the term "bust." Reggie Bush's expectations were x and he fell short of them, but he still is a solid player.

Can't believe this has six pages of "that's not what bust means."
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Old 02-22-2011, 12:07 PM    (permalink
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You people are really special. This argument has degraded to nothing but a semantical debate over the term "bust" rather then talking about players.

Who cares what arbitrary value you give the term "bust." Reggie Bush's expectations were x and he fell short of them, but he still is a solid player.

Can't believe this has six pages of "that's not what bust means."
Exactly. Reggie should have his own thread debating all this... who chose to make this thread about Bush?

I want to know what Scott's pre-draft thoughts were on Nick Collins and Greg Jennings, as well as Clay Matthews.

None of us here ever saw Collins or Jennings play in college, probably the same case with James Jones.

What I notice about everyone who gives their opinions before a draft, they are sure to cover themselves on each side, just like the weathermen who say partly sunny with a chance at isolated showers.

Scott and the others always put positives and weaknesses and mention something that will cover them if they succeed, or if they fail.

I'd like to see them add a category that says my career prediction for this player:
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Old 02-22-2011, 02:10 PM    (permalink
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The six page Bush diatribe solely blossomed from the ******** emanating from this statement:

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Originally Posted by Scott Wright
I honestly believe Reggie Bush has turned into exactly the type of player I envisioned.

Anyone who thought he was going to be an elite starting running back was kidding themselves. Bush is and always was a versatile, all-around threat best suited for a third down role.
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Old 02-22-2011, 02:17 PM    (permalink
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Which is funny because even with Scott's comments it sounds like revisionist history. It's not like his scouting report said something along the lines of "excellent role player but not suited to be an elite starting RB". Kinda hard to say he is likely to end up better then Marshall Faulk, then later say you were kidding yourself if you thought he was gonna be an elite starting RB.
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Old 02-22-2011, 02:24 PM    (permalink
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Yea, anyone saying they think Reggie has lived up to what they thought, is probably full of ****, I don't remember many, if any detractors.

That's kinda lame Scott.

I still think he can be an elite player with good health, he'll never be Barry Sanders with Marshall Faulk's receiving like some people wanted to say.

Either way, he's a dissappointment that I'll be thrilled to have back next year, and I still think his best football is ahead of him, and even if he keeps getting hurt, you can almost count on him winning you a game or two when he has one of those "moments".

I almost feel like he will fluke into at least 1-2 healthy years. The guy hasn't played a full healthy season since his rookie year(hell, even then, he tweaked his ankle early, but it wasn't TOO bad), he's either come into the season hurt, got hurt pretty significantly in the middle, or ended on IR, it's kind of a shame =/.
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Old 02-22-2011, 03:10 PM    (permalink
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I was labeled a Reggie Bush hater prior to the draft, but only because I said woah there, hold up tiger, when people said he was the next Marshall Faulk. That's all it took. People here looked at his FLOOR as a rich man's Brian Westbrook. Even if we ignore the "rich man's" part, it shows that the sentiment of most people on here was that he would be a dominant NFL player, and he simply is NOT. Whether that's a bust or not, I don't care to argue. But he is NOT a dominant NFL player by any stretch. He's a good player, but he's not great. And S-T, I really don't think his numbers would hold up with more carries. Maybe he really has turned a corner, but I don't know if that would continue if he had to take the grind of 12-15 carries per game, which isn't even a lot. He's underperformed this "hater"'s expectations, because although I never thought he'd be Faulk, I thought he'd be Westbrook more or less.

A lot of teams would want Bush, yes, I want the Broncos to get him too at a reasonable price. That doesn't mean anything though. Broncos need returners and playmakers in a big way, plus having a guy like Bush out of the backfield could help Tebow. I think the Saints should restructure depending on the new cap situation, because in a cap situation he is nowhere near worth $12M or whatever. They could probly get him for half that. And they should agree to that, because Reggie Bush is good for the Saints, and the Saints are good for Reggie Bush.
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Old 02-22-2011, 03:16 PM    (permalink
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Can't believe this has six pages of "that's not what bust means."
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Old 02-22-2011, 03:49 PM    (permalink
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Reggie isn't getting 12 million, and he doesn't feel he deserves that much, that really isn't an issue.

"Saints running back Reggie Bush indicated Tuesday that he's willing to renegotiate his $11.8 million 2011 base salary to stay with the Saints. "I'm open to whatever is going to help me stay here," Bush said"

Bush is due about $11.8 million next season – the final year of his current contract – and figures there's little chance the Saints will bring him back at that price.

"Common sense would tell you probably not," Bush said


I have no evidence that Bush would be able to sustain high yards per carry with a high amount of carries, his number of high carries is limited.

He hasn't had 15+ carries since early in 2008, they all came in 2006 and 2007, but even still, he averaged 4.2 yards per carry on those 140 carries, and he's pretty clearly a better runner now than he was in 2007, and the Saints can open up holes better too.

Hell, I'm not even sure more carries will get him hurt, I'm pretty sure all of his injuries have come on punt returns, I remember at least 3 significant injuries on punt returns.

I know his 09 numbers can be easily skewed, and a small amount of carries can be spiked by one or two big runs, but it's not like he padded his numbers on a few big runs over his 70 carries, even you take out the 55 yarder he had, he still averaged 4.9 yards per carry, with only two carries over 20 yards. That's pretty good consistency for a guy who was so damn inconsistent early on, that's a huge improvement. He was gashing people in that 5-20 yard area every game, and deserved more carries than he got.

He's definitely improved a lot since his first two seasons, and I don't think enough people want to give him credit for that because his body hasn't held up enough for him to sustain bigger carries, and that's totally fair, but even outside of the numbers, you can just see he's a clearly improved player.
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Old 02-22-2011, 04:13 PM    (permalink
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FWIW:

Jennings (10th rated WR)


Collins (19th rated CB)


To be fair, WR and DB are the two hardest position groups to scout for the average fan since you rarely see them in the play. You need coaches tape to scout them properly.
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