The ATL Trade?

[njx9]

Originally Posted by gpngc

It is SHEER stupidity to look at past drafts to find the percentage of success for guys taken in certain rounds when measuring the value of unknown future picks in that same round?

pretty sure i just got done making that argument. perhaps you should re-read why.

How else would you even come close to determining the value of next year's second round pick?

i'm pretty sure you'd value it as "next year's second round pick". i have no idea why you think there's some super secret metric here. it's like you think belichick is sitting back in his draft room thinking... "well... mcdaniels blew all of his first round picks, so i guess ours is pretty worthless. might as well trade it down. i mean, mike shanahan was pretty good at getting UDFA running backs. so we probably don't need to draft one. no, no bob, i don't care how good you think adrian peterson is. other teams can't draft first round running backs, so we won't either. wait, what? late round qbs statistically never amount to anything? might as well pass on brady and cassell. i mean, why bother? *statistical analysis* is the only thing that's relevant here. all prospects are always exactly the same."

This is a gigantic business

well that settles it. it can't be a business if it isn't run off a spreadsheet.

[SativaDominant]

Originally Posted by SativaDominant

Moving up in a weak class absolutely makes sense if you're drafting a sure fire prospect at a position of high value. And, again, while this was a weak draft class, wide receiver was arguably the deepest position in the entire draft.

As far as Julio's status as a prospect, we'll have to agree to disagree. I've had this argument with people before, and nobody changes their mind. He's big, strong, fast, blocks, yada, yada, yada. I know. However, he plays slow, doesn't seperate from DBs (despite having good route running form and hip flexibility), and struggles tracking the ball in the air. People have vastly overstated his potential because of his height/weight/timed speed ratio. He's a #2 receiver in a #1's body who will make a living running slants and drags and breaking tackles underneath.

Page trap.

[LonghornsLegend]

Originally Posted by SativaDominant

Moving up in a weak class absolutely makes sense if you're drafting a sure fire prospect at a position of high value. And, again, while this was a weak draft class, wide receiver was arguably the deepest position in the entire draft.

As far as Julio's status as a prospect, we'll have to agree to disagree. I've had this argument with people before, and nobody changes their mind. He's big, strong, fast, blocks, yada, yada, yada. I know. However, he plays slow, doesn't seperate from DBs (despite having good route running form and hip flexibility), and struggles tracking the ball in the air. People have vastly overstated his potential because of his height/weight/timed speed ratio. He's a #2 receiver in a #1's body who will make a living running slants and drags and breaking tackles underneath.

That's fine, I won't argue with you your opinion on JJ, you could be absolutely right, but he's still alot more then a 'solid prospect', in which the masses could confirm that. NFL GM's, exec's, whoever. Everyone had him rated as an elite prospect in this draft, or any draft for that matter. The draft as a whole shouldn't change that, nor should how deep a position was.


Calling this draft "deep" at WR means nothing if your including guys like Greg Salas or Randall Cobb. They can, and probably will go onto to be big time players, but how many players in this draft could potentially end up a #1 WR? How many do you have outside of AJ, JJ, and Little? I don't think they wanted a longterm #2 WR.

[OGDraft]

Originally Posted by gpngc

And saying "for a #2 receiver...." First of all, that was their biggest weakness.

Wrong. That was not our biggest weakness. That was, and still is, defensive end. We could also use more depth in the secondary and a RT since Clabo could potentially leave to get his pay day. #2 WR is a need but it was the biggest need because we are simply fine on the offensive side of the ball. It's our defense that has consistently been letting us down in big games.

[ATLDirtyBirds]

Originally Posted by SativaDominant

As far as Julio's status as a prospect, we'll have to agree to disagree. I've had this argument with people before, and nobody changes their mind. He's big, strong, fast, blocks, yada, yada, yada. I know. However, he plays slow, doesn't seperate from DBs (despite having good route running form and hip flexibility), and struggles tracking the ball in the air. People have vastly overstated his potential because of his height/weight/timed speed ratio. He's a #2 receiver in a #1's body who will make a living running slants and drags and breaking tackles underneath.

Sounds like Terrell Owens. ;)

[Halsey]

The Falcons were so fine on offense that they managed 2 meaningful scores in the Green Bay loss, possessed the ball just over 20 minutes, went 3 for 10 on third downs, totaled under 200 yards offense, etc. The Falcons defense couldn't get a breather because of the way the offense was getting shut down.

edit: The Falcons were average last year in total offense. Three of the last 4 Super Bowl winners have been top 5-10.

[FTRWRTR]

Originally Posted by Halsey

edit: The Falcons were average last year in total offense. Three of the last 4 Super Bowl winners have been top 5-10.

You know what, you schooled me. I watch the falcons play every week and I see them score a ton of points and hear how they have the 5th highest scoring offense in the league so I never bothered to look up their offensive stats. It turns out they were indeed 16th in total offense and 12th in passing offense. Meanwhile they were also 16th in total defense and yet people assume they are this great offensive juggernaut with a crappy defense. LOL.

[TitanHope]

Originally Posted by gpngc

It is SHEER stupidity to look at past drafts to find the percentage of success for guys taken in certain rounds when measuring the value of unknown future picks in that same round?

Say you're buying raffle tickets. You buy 101 tickets, and each individual ticket has a 1/4 chance of winning. After 100 tickets go by, 10 of them are winners and 90 of them are losers. What are the odds that the 101st ticket is a winner: 1/4 or 1/10?

According to your "statistical analysis," you'd choose 1/10.

Originally Posted by gpngc

How else would you even come close to determining the value of next year's second round pick?

I don't think there is a way to accurately determine a future pick's value. It is what it is. It's going to be your pick of the litter among the available players at a early point in the draft, and based on a massive variety of variables, could hold an massive or miniscule value. He could be as good as an All-Pro, or he could die the day after the draft ends. To try to label it as anything other than "the ## pick of the 2012 NFL Draft" is a fool's errand. Hence why as opposed to the raffle ticket's known odds, a draft pick's odds are unknown.

Originally Posted by gpngc

This is a gigantic business and if you think there is no statistical analysis based on past drafts in determining the value of future picks and that it's just a crapshoot then I think you're underestimating the complexity of the process.

I have no idea how a GM comes up with his own subjective determination of value, especially for one that he has no idea where in the round it will be. But if you have proof that this is a common occurance, then please provide it.

Originally Posted by gpngc

And saying "for a #2 receiver...." First of all, that was their biggest weakness.

That wasn't what I heard before, during, or after the draft, and this came from both Falcons fans and neutral pundits. Upgrading over Michael Jenkins was really their biggest issue? I'm sorry. The Falcons are good, but they're not so good that Michael Jenkins was what cost them a championship. Not to mention, good GM's think of future needs as well.

Originally Posted by gpngc

Second of all, a #2 receiver plays way more snaps than whatever DE they would have drafted at 27. Jones will be on the field in every single set besides GL and if for some reason before the 10-yard line the coaching staff subs in Justin Peelle for a 2TE FB 1WR look... I don't think they'll do that very often...

I don't care who they would have taken at #27 (technically, #26 due to the Ravens/Bears mishap), especially since not only would they have been able to take someone there, but they could have taken someone with their 2nd RD'er and 4th RD'er...and future 1st and 4th RD'ers as well. Michael Jenkins could have been upgraded over with either of their first two picks, with Jonathan Baldwin in the 1st or Greg Little with their 2nd (coincidentally, both these players were taking with picks originally owned by the Falcons). The rest would be gravy, whether they chose to add another pass-rusher, go BPA, or try to anticipate a future hole in the roster.

For me, the issue isn't the player. Jones is definitely a talent, and if he was their "guy," then I'm fine with them making the move. But coming from someone who looks at this without having "guys," I'm not sure I can say this was smart. You're trading 5-for-1, which means there are four guys who have the potential to improve your team that you're not gonna have the chance at. And in exchange for those 4 players, three of which are premium selections, you're upgrading your #2 WR...when that could have been accomplished without the trade - you just wouldn't have gotten the elite prospect at the position. So was upgrading an average #2 WR with an elitely talented rookie worth it? Not unless you don't have the faith in your QB and/or coaching staff that you need to surround them with elite players, which is what this move says to me.

[the_dark_knight]

Originally Posted by njx9

that's cute. 'i'm so oppressed because like, you're a mod, so let me start off with a bizarre, inane comment that has no relevance whatsoever to the conversation, so that when you DO reply, i can further compalin about how mean you are because you're a mod and like, your name is a different color than mine. boo fricking hoo.'

grow up.



so, you should always package your draft picks so that you don't have to cut players (which you'll do anyways) and so that a bad scouting department isn't exposed? that seems... logical, or something.



so, instead of spending crazy money on a WR who's actually proven that he can play in the nfl, you're going to spend crazy money on a WR who's proven nothing. brilliant. but hey, look at all of those stud wrs who've won the super bowl. oh... right.



why would i fear a rookie who's proven nothing in the nfl? i do appreciate the assumption that he's already a top tier nfl wideout, it's cute, but until he actually shows that he can beat an nfl cb, or run an nfl route, no one cares.



ah, more "he's already a top tier nfl receiver, and he's so good that he's actually made the defense better". is that why the lions won so many more games the year after they drafted calvin johnson? is that why the texans have gone to the playoffs so many times with andre johnson? is that why the cardinals won so many super bowls with fitz AND boldin? let me know when you catch onto the theme.



yes, i'm *jealous* that the broncos didn't trade their next 53 first round picks to take a wide receiver in the top ten. how'd you know? every single time i think something is stupid, it's clearly just jealousy.



i.e. - waaaaaaah, someone else did it to! why are you picking on us! other teams make dumb trades!



yup, not only am i 'jealous' i'm also 'hating'. i mean, you were clearly a julio jones away from winning the super bowl for the next decade straight.

Cry more mod, seriously. This is insane that you're a mod and cry like this. You clearly are jealous, and take this stuff to heart, and it's clear that you're going to end up being wrong about the amount of money spent on landing him too, considering the whole rookie wage scale thing. Once that's in place, then the Falcons are going to come out smelling like roses on this one. Especially once Julio ends up blowing up the NFL in his rookie season and people crying at night after the Falcons offense just rolls through them.

Keep bein mad dude, it's all good. You're just a whiner.

*modtag*

[SativaDominant]

The coronation of Julio Jones reminds me of the coronation of Reggie Bush. Supremely talented players who have pretty substantial translation questions going into the NFL that seem to be getting completely glossed over by everyone.

[TACKLE]

Originally Posted by SativaDominant

The coronation of Julio Jones reminds me of the coronation of Reggie Bush. Supremely talented players who have pretty substantial translation questions going into the NFL that seem to be getting completely glossed over by everyone.

C'mon man. It's not even remotely close to that. One guy was viewed as arguably the best college player in a decade and the consensus #1 player in the draft. The other one was the consensus #2 WR in the draft and was projected and ranked between 6-14 on most boards. The difference in the level of hype isn't even close. Not to mention that Reggie had a unique style of play and was supposed to be a player who transcended the position in today's NFL due to his very unique skill-set. The most popular comparison for Reg was Gale freaking Sayers. Using some hindsight, Reg's game was very hard to project to the next level but most, myself included, assumed that he'd find a way to succeed on the strength of his athleticism and playmaking ability. With Julio, we can see players right now with comparable skill-sets with similar type games. We can turn on the TV every Sunday and see a Dwayne Bowe, a Miles Austin, a Terrell Owens, a Braylon Edwards and see the similarities between their games and Julio's and make a much easier assessment of how his game will translate, for better or worse.

[SativaDominant]

Originally Posted by TACKLE

C'mon man. It's not even remotely close to that. One guy was viewed as arguably the best college player in a decade and the consensus #1 player in the draft. The other one was the consensus #2 WR in the draft and was projected and ranked between 6-14 on most boards. The difference in the level of hype isn't even close. Not to mention that Reggie had a unique style of play and was supposed to be a player who transcended the position in today's NFL due to his very unique skill-set. The most popular comparison for Reg was Gale freaking Sayers. Whereas with Julio, you can turn on the TV every Sunday and see a Dwayne Bowe, a Miles Austin, a Terrell Owens, a Braylon Edwards and see the similarities between their games and Julio's and make a much easier assessment of how his game will translate, for better or worse.

Alright, alright, I'm hyperbolizing. Nobody is saying that Julio will be a transcendent, once-in-a-generation type player like they were with Bush.

However, it's just irritating to me when a prospect's flaws are ignored. And when they say **** like:

Especially once Julio ends up blowing up the NFL in his rookie season and people crying at night after the Falcons offense just rolls through them

His floor is Reggie Williams and his ceiling is, like you compared him to, a Dwayne Bowe. I think he'll be somewhere in-between. Solid player, but not one I'd take before, say, pick 20 in the first round (depending on the value of other players in the draft - lots of variables there).

[Halsey]

Some of Jones' so called flaws are fan talk nonsense. The idea that he plays slow comes from people who say that all the time about big, long striding WRs. I heard the same thing about Calvin Johnson.

LSU doesn't think he plays slow:

[SativaDominant]

Dunno what you're trying to prove with that video...

He catches the ball at the 25. His build up speed is absolutely ATROCIOUS - I feel like I'm watching Matt Jones right there - he looks like he's stuck in molasses until he gets to about the 50 yard line and then his top-end speed takes over.
It should be mentioned, too, that Patrick Peterson was not in the game at that point.

Know what happens when slow WRs play fast CBs? This:



And you bring up Calvin Johnson...yes, Calvin Johnson is a long-strider. However, watch this video of CJ last year and tell me he doesn't have much better build-up speed than Julio. Pay particular attention to play at 1:39 and watch his explosion off the ball.



Not to mention, CJ is so much better in terms of body control, tracking the ball in the air, "hand" catching, and grabbing the ball in traffic than Julio that they're not even comparable. Completely different types of receiver who will play vastly different NFL roles, despite similarities in measurables.

[Halsey]

Originally Posted by SativaDominant

Dunno what you're trying to prove with that video...

He catches the ball at the 25. His build up speed is absolutely ATROCIOUS.

Says a nobody on a message board. Jones had well over 300 yards receiving in 3 games vs LSU. You don't do that by being slow.

[Monomach]

Originally Posted by Halsey

Some of Jones' so called flaws are fan talk nonsense. The idea that he plays slow comes from people who say that all the time about big, long striding WRs. I heard the same thing about Calvin Johnson.

LSU doesn't think he plays slow:

a) Looks positively non-explosive. That's a slow first 25 yards.
b) I don't remember anyone saying CJ didn't play fast.

[Halsey]

Originally Posted by Monomach

a) Looks positively non-explosive.

Another irrelevant opinion.

Fact: Over 300 yards in 3 games vs LSU

Meaningless opinion: OMGZ Julio Jones looks slow!

[SativaDominant]

Originally Posted by Halsey

Says a nobody on a message board. Jones had well over 300 yards receiving in 3 games vs LSU. You don't do that by being slow.

Translation: I just posted a video that disproves the point I'm trying to make, so I'm going to throw in some ad-hominems and STATZZZZZZZ that have nothing to do with playing speed.

Reggie Williams had over 300 receiving yards in 3 games vs USC. I guess you don't do that by being slow, either.

Mike Mayock said right after Julio's forty at the combine that he doesn't play up to that timed speed. Greg Cosell also said this after extensive tape review and said, while he likes Jones, he seriously questions his ability to become an impact receiver down the field. I guess their opinions are worthless, too.

[Halsey]

lol a video of Patrick Peterson making an int proves Julio is slow...

[SativaDominant]

Originally Posted by Halsey

lol a video of Patrick Peterson making an int proves Julio is slow...

Well, you already did a pretty good job of proving he's slow with the screen pass that makes him five days to get to top-speed.

The PP video simply shows Julio getting beat to the ball despite achieving separation on his route/break. Start the video at the :46 mark, where it shows the separation and the subsequent closing speed difference between the two.

[dunagan15]

It been 7 pages and I have yet to reply to any of this nonsense (mostly), but, as expected I'm sure a lot of you are not really sure the style of offense the Falcons run.

This huge debate of if Julio is fast or looks slow or isn't CJ, is not the determining factor of whether or not Julio is going to be successful. He fits our style of offense perfectly. Matt Ryan doesn't have Flacco like arm strength and really is just mediocre throwing the ball downfield, which is why the Falcons rarely take a chance downfield.

What Julio positives are. Route running, flexible hips, big body, in and out of cuts, YAC. That is exactly what were going to use him for, Slants, Digs, Slip screens, outs, etc. Ryan excells at making accurate throws 20 yards and under all day long, what we didnt have (aside from Roddy, whom was mostly doubled) was a WR that could make a catch and do something after the catch, Jenkins is a bean pole and at best a possession receiver, Harry Douglas couldnt catch a cold, Finneran has 2 car axles for knees, and Gonzo is old.

Throw in a young, talented WR, with all the potential in the world to be just like TO w/o the drama and I'll take that all day, even if the trade was pricey, Ill more than take that risk if he can be TO V.2.

[LonghornsLegend]

As if anyone should be comparing any WR to Calvin Johnson, like 99.8% of any WR won't look inferior. CJ isn't a good comparison for anyone. It's like putting up tape of Mario Williams at DE, and comparing it to another 1st rd pick to show why he's not that good.

[SativaDominant]

Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend

As if anyone should be comparing any WR to Calvin Johnson, like 99.8% of any WR won't look inferior. CJ isn't a good comparison for anyone. It's like putting up tape of Mario Williams at DE, and comparing it to another 1st rd pick to show why he's not that good.

I wasn't doing that to make Julio look inferior, I did it in comparison to the assertion that Calvin looks slow because he's a long strider and that Jones suffers from the same criticisms.

Originally Posted by dunagan15

It been 7 pages and I have yet to reply to any of this nonsense (mostly), but, as expected I'm sure a lot of you are not really sure the style of offense the Falcons run.

This huge debate of if Julio is fast or looks slow or isn't CJ, is not the determining factor of whether or not Julio is going to be successful. He fits our style of offense perfectly. Matt Ryan doesn't have Flacco like arm strength and really is just mediocre throwing the ball downfield, which is why the Falcons rarely take a chance downfield.

What Julio positives are. Route running, flexible hips, big body, in and out of cuts, YAC. That is exactly what were going to use him for, Slants, Digs, Slip screens, outs, etc. Ryan excells at making accurate throws 20 yards and under all day long, what we didnt have (aside from Roddy, whom was mostly doubled) was a WR that could make a catch and do something after the catch, Jenkins is a bean pole and at best a possession receiver, Harry Douglas couldnt catch a cold, Finneran has 2 car axles for knees, and Gonzo is old.

Throw in a young, talented WR, with all the potential in the world to be just like TO w/o the drama and I'll take that all day, even if the trade was pricey, Ill more than take that risk if he can be TO V.2.

I completely understand the Falcons' need for receiving options that can handle dirty work. There are a major questions that will have to be answered to know if the trade was worth it, though:
1. Will the Falcons fundamentally change their offensive philosophy for Jones to get enough touches? It seems ridiculous to expect him to meet arbitrary statistical benchmarks, but he's going to need to be one of the league's best receivers (quickly) for the trade to be worth it. Like I've said, this was an incredibly deep and versatile group of pass catchers. And I truly believe Jones was a tier two receiver (AJ Green being the only tier one guy) whose production will be matched/equaled to receivers selected after him.

2. Will the picks sacrificed in moving up significantly hamper their ability to upgrade/reload their defense on the fly? I know they've got a couple of promising young pieces they're banking on, and Mike Smith and Van Gordor are two of the best in the league at covering up defensive deficiencies, but they absolutely need a blue chip talent, either on the defensive line or in the secondary.

Like I said, I don't think the Falcons are going to peg Jones in the wrong role. I just don't think it's worth spending multiple picks on a receiver who handles that type of role. That's the gyst of my argument. There's a reason Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall were selected in the second round and concurrently traded for second rounders.

[ATLDirtyBirds]

Originally Posted by SativaDominant

Mike Mayock said right after Julio's forty at the combine that he doesn't play up to that timed speed.

Is that the same Mayock that said Julio vs. PP was the best matchup he's seen all year and that each got the better of the other several times?

[OGDraft]

Originally Posted by Halsey

The Falcons were so fine on offense that they managed 2 meaningful scores in the Green Bay loss, possessed the ball just over 20 minutes, went 3 for 10 on third downs, totaled under 200 yards offense, etc. The Falcons defense couldn't get a breather because of the way the offense was getting shut down.

edit: The Falcons were average last year in total offense. Three of the last 4 Super Bowl winners have been top 5-10.

Thank Matt Ryan for that. 6 turnovers in 2 playoff games isn't going to get it done. I don't see how having a better #2 WR would have made any more of an impact in that game. That's on Matt and our defense that game. Here's a fun fact. We didn't force them to a single punt. That can't all be attributed to "oh they were tired".

Come on you can't honestly, as a Falcons fan who watched every single game, come to the conclusion that #2 WR was our biggest need.