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Old 06-23-2011, 11:25 AM    (permalink
SativaDominant
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Originally Posted by TACKLE View Post
C'mon man. It's not even remotely close to that. One guy was viewed as arguably the best college player in a decade and the consensus #1 player in the draft. The other one was the consensus #2 WR in the draft and was projected and ranked between 6-14 on most boards. The difference in the level of hype isn't even close. Not to mention that Reggie had a unique style of play and was supposed to be a player who transcended the position in today's NFL due to his very unique skill-set. The most popular comparison for Reg was Gale freaking Sayers. Whereas with Julio, you can turn on the TV every Sunday and see a Dwayne Bowe, a Miles Austin, a Terrell Owens, a Braylon Edwards and see the similarities between their games and Julio's and make a much easier assessment of how his game will translate, for better or worse.
Alright, alright, I'm hyperbolizing. Nobody is saying that Julio will be a transcendent, once-in-a-generation type player like they were with Bush.

However, it's just irritating to me when a prospect's flaws are ignored. And when they say **** like:

Quote:
Especially once Julio ends up blowing up the NFL in his rookie season and people crying at night after the Falcons offense just rolls through them
His floor is Reggie Williams and his ceiling is, like you compared him to, a Dwayne Bowe. I think he'll be somewhere in-between. Solid player, but not one I'd take before, say, pick 20 in the first round (depending on the value of other players in the draft - lots of variables there).

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Old 06-23-2011, 12:19 PM    (permalink
Halsey
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Some of Jones' so called flaws are fan talk nonsense. The idea that he plays slow comes from people who say that all the time about big, long striding WRs. I heard the same thing about Calvin Johnson.

LSU doesn't think he plays slow:

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Old 06-23-2011, 12:46 PM    (permalink
SativaDominant
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Dunno what you're trying to prove with that video...

He catches the ball at the 25. His build up speed is absolutely ATROCIOUS - I feel like I'm watching Matt Jones right there - he looks like he's stuck in molasses until he gets to about the 50 yard line and then his top-end speed takes over.
It should be mentioned, too, that Patrick Peterson was not in the game at that point.

Know what happens when slow WRs play fast CBs? This:



And you bring up Calvin Johnson...yes, Calvin Johnson is a long-strider. However, watch this video of CJ last year and tell me he doesn't have much better build-up speed than Julio. Pay particular attention to play at 1:39 and watch his explosion off the ball.



Not to mention, CJ is so much better in terms of body control, tracking the ball in the air, "hand" catching, and grabbing the ball in traffic than Julio that they're not even comparable. Completely different types of receiver who will play vastly different NFL roles, despite similarities in measurables.

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Old 06-23-2011, 12:57 PM    (permalink
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Dunno what you're trying to prove with that video...

He catches the ball at the 25. His build up speed is absolutely ATROCIOUS.
Says a nobody on a message board. Jones had well over 300 yards receiving in 3 games vs LSU. You don't do that by being slow.
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Old 06-23-2011, 01:00 PM    (permalink
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Some of Jones' so called flaws are fan talk nonsense. The idea that he plays slow comes from people who say that all the time about big, long striding WRs. I heard the same thing about Calvin Johnson.

LSU doesn't think he plays slow:

a) Looks positively non-explosive. That's a slow first 25 yards.
b) I don't remember anyone saying CJ didn't play fast.
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Old 06-23-2011, 01:03 PM    (permalink
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a) Looks positively non-explosive.
Another irrelevant opinion.

Fact: Over 300 yards in 3 games vs LSU

Meaningless opinion: OMGZ Julio Jones looks slow!
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Old 06-23-2011, 01:09 PM    (permalink
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Says a nobody on a message board. Jones had well over 300 yards receiving in 3 games vs LSU. You don't do that by being slow.
Translation: I just posted a video that disproves the point I'm trying to make, so I'm going to throw in some ad-hominems and STATZZZZZZZ that have nothing to do with playing speed.

Reggie Williams had over 300 receiving yards in 3 games vs USC. I guess you don't do that by being slow, either.

Mike Mayock said right after Julio's forty at the combine that he doesn't play up to that timed speed. Greg Cosell also said this after extensive tape review and said, while he likes Jones, he seriously questions his ability to become an impact receiver down the field. I guess their opinions are worthless, too.

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Old 06-23-2011, 01:16 PM    (permalink
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lol a video of Patrick Peterson making an int proves Julio is slow...
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Old 06-23-2011, 01:23 PM    (permalink
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lol a video of Patrick Peterson making an int proves Julio is slow...
Well, you already did a pretty good job of proving he's slow with the screen pass that makes him five days to get to top-speed.

The PP video simply shows Julio getting beat to the ball despite achieving separation on his route/break. Start the video at the :46 mark, where it shows the separation and the subsequent closing speed difference between the two.
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Old 06-23-2011, 03:51 PM    (permalink
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It been 7 pages and I have yet to reply to any of this nonsense (mostly), but, as expected I'm sure a lot of you are not really sure the style of offense the Falcons run.

This huge debate of if Julio is fast or looks slow or isn't CJ, is not the determining factor of whether or not Julio is going to be successful. He fits our style of offense perfectly. Matt Ryan doesn't have Flacco like arm strength and really is just mediocre throwing the ball downfield, which is why the Falcons rarely take a chance downfield.

What Julio positives are. Route running, flexible hips, big body, in and out of cuts, YAC. That is exactly what were going to use him for, Slants, Digs, Slip screens, outs, etc. Ryan excells at making accurate throws 20 yards and under all day long, what we didnt have (aside from Roddy, whom was mostly doubled) was a WR that could make a catch and do something after the catch, Jenkins is a bean pole and at best a possession receiver, Harry Douglas couldnt catch a cold, Finneran has 2 car axles for knees, and Gonzo is old.

Throw in a young, talented WR, with all the potential in the world to be just like TO w/o the drama and I'll take that all day, even if the trade was pricey, Ill more than take that risk if he can be TO V.2.
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Old 06-23-2011, 04:01 PM    (permalink
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As if anyone should be comparing any WR to Calvin Johnson, like 99.8% of any WR won't look inferior. CJ isn't a good comparison for anyone. It's like putting up tape of Mario Williams at DE, and comparing it to another 1st rd pick to show why he's not that good.
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 06-23-2011, 04:32 PM    (permalink
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As if anyone should be comparing any WR to Calvin Johnson, like 99.8% of any WR won't look inferior. CJ isn't a good comparison for anyone. It's like putting up tape of Mario Williams at DE, and comparing it to another 1st rd pick to show why he's not that good.
I wasn't doing that to make Julio look inferior, I did it in comparison to the assertion that Calvin looks slow because he's a long strider and that Jones suffers from the same criticisms.

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Originally Posted by dunagan15
It been 7 pages and I have yet to reply to any of this nonsense (mostly), but, as expected I'm sure a lot of you are not really sure the style of offense the Falcons run.

This huge debate of if Julio is fast or looks slow or isn't CJ, is not the determining factor of whether or not Julio is going to be successful. He fits our style of offense perfectly. Matt Ryan doesn't have Flacco like arm strength and really is just mediocre throwing the ball downfield, which is why the Falcons rarely take a chance downfield.

What Julio positives are. Route running, flexible hips, big body, in and out of cuts, YAC. That is exactly what were going to use him for, Slants, Digs, Slip screens, outs, etc. Ryan excells at making accurate throws 20 yards and under all day long, what we didnt have (aside from Roddy, whom was mostly doubled) was a WR that could make a catch and do something after the catch, Jenkins is a bean pole and at best a possession receiver, Harry Douglas couldnt catch a cold, Finneran has 2 car axles for knees, and Gonzo is old.

Throw in a young, talented WR, with all the potential in the world to be just like TO w/o the drama and I'll take that all day, even if the trade was pricey, Ill more than take that risk if he can be TO V.2.
I completely understand the Falcons' need for receiving options that can handle dirty work. There are a major questions that will have to be answered to know if the trade was worth it, though:
1. Will the Falcons fundamentally change their offensive philosophy for Jones to get enough touches? It seems ridiculous to expect him to meet arbitrary statistical benchmarks, but he's going to need to be one of the league's best receivers (quickly) for the trade to be worth it. Like I've said, this was an incredibly deep and versatile group of pass catchers. And I truly believe Jones was a tier two receiver (AJ Green being the only tier one guy) whose production will be matched/equaled to receivers selected after him.

2. Will the picks sacrificed in moving up significantly hamper their ability to upgrade/reload their defense on the fly? I know they've got a couple of promising young pieces they're banking on, and Mike Smith and Van Gordor are two of the best in the league at covering up defensive deficiencies, but they absolutely need a blue chip talent, either on the defensive line or in the secondary.

Like I said, I don't think the Falcons are going to peg Jones in the wrong role. I just don't think it's worth spending multiple picks on a receiver who handles that type of role. That's the gyst of my argument. There's a reason Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall were selected in the second round and concurrently traded for second rounders.

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Old 06-23-2011, 05:41 PM    (permalink
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Mike Mayock said right after Julio's forty at the combine that he doesn't play up to that timed speed.
Is that the same Mayock that said Julio vs. PP was the best matchup he's seen all year and that each got the better of the other several times?
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Old 06-23-2011, 06:51 PM    (permalink
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The Falcons were so fine on offense that they managed 2 meaningful scores in the Green Bay loss, possessed the ball just over 20 minutes, went 3 for 10 on third downs, totaled under 200 yards offense, etc. The Falcons defense couldn't get a breather because of the way the offense was getting shut down.

edit: The Falcons were average last year in total offense. Three of the last 4 Super Bowl winners have been top 5-10.
Thank Matt Ryan for that. 6 turnovers in 2 playoff games isn't going to get it done. I don't see how having a better #2 WR would have made any more of an impact in that game. That's on Matt and our defense that game. Here's a fun fact. We didn't force them to a single punt. That can't all be attributed to "oh they were tired".

Come on you can't honestly, as a Falcons fan who watched every single game, come to the conclusion that #2 WR was our biggest need.
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Old 06-23-2011, 07:00 PM    (permalink
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This is a gigantic business and if you think there is no statistical analysis based on past drafts in determining the value of future picks and that it's just a crapshoot then I think you're underestimating the complexity of the process.
The NFL is NOT a gigantic business. It is barely worth calling large. Compared to my budget, certainly, but not, say, Exxon or Boeing.

That being said, it is a business, and good businessmen use a lot of analytical tools. Perhaps a couple of points.

1) Cleveland has been trading down quite a bit. Personally, I think the decision is based on a perception that low 1st round picks are more cost effective than top 10 picks. That is, possibly, just me projecting. There choice this year, Phil Taylor, could easily be an impact player, and is certainly cheaper than, say, Jake Locker or even Nick Fairley.

2) Atlanta has been building a solid roster for years. They clearly feel that solid will only take you so far, and that they have reached that point.

3) If JJ becomes Megatron II, then Atlanta made out like a bandit. If Phil Taylor becomes Vince Wilfork, ditto for the Browns. Of course there exists the possibility that JJones more resembles Crabtree, or that none of the extra Browns picks ever earns a starting spot. Your pays your money, you tries your skill, and gets your desserts.

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Old 06-23-2011, 07:12 PM    (permalink
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Thank Matt Ryan for that. 6 turnovers in 2 playoff games isn't going to get it done. I don't see how having a better #2 WR would have made any more of an impact in that game.
You need to go back and watch the game then. I bet Julio Jones wouldn't fall down in this situation:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-h...000d5d81db449f

He can also help take focus off Roddy White.
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Old 06-23-2011, 07:34 PM    (permalink
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It's interesting how much of our evaluations are based around how we perceive game speed based off watching these guys play on TV. It's just so subjective yet interestingly enough, people usually come to a consensus when it comes to perceived game speed.

On that note, maybe this is silly, but sometimes I wonder if and how much a prospect's team, uniform and gear effects how fast a player looks. Let's use, I don't know, Julio Jones (though I think this can apply across the board) as an example. He plays for Bama, a school known for size, strength, toughness but not speed, his team has old school plain unis, he wears an awkward old Revo helmet, has bulky taped. Again maybe this is silly but I think there is some truth to it. If Julio went somewhere like VT, Miami, Clemson, LSU and was all geared up, I can't help but think that it would feel about his speed.

This isn't so much a commentary on Julio but how even something like speed and explosiveness can be subjective.
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Old 06-23-2011, 11:02 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
You need to go back and watch the game then. I bet Julio Jones wouldn't fall down in this situation:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-h...000d5d81db449f

He can also help take focus off Roddy White.
If Matt Ryan throws that ball on time and doesn't underthrow it it's a TD. You're obviously a giant Falcons homer who will not let this go even though you make illogical points but in your world the Falcons are the greatest team ever and can do no wrong. Boo. I never understood why some fans can never criticize their team, it's not like it makes you less of a fan.

I guarantee though the Falcons will not win a Superbowl until we bring in some more help on defense because that's where we're lacking. That, and Matt Ryan needs to stop turning the ball over in the most important games of the season.
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Old 06-23-2011, 11:15 PM    (permalink
Halsey
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If Matt Ryan throws that ball on time
JUst stop. It's the NFL. WRs need to be able to adjust to passes that aren't perfectly thrown. Not fall down. The 'it's all Matt Ryan's fault' arguments are dumb and old. He's going to be the Falcons QB for a long time. Surrounding him with quality weapons will only help him. Michael Jenkins is not a quality weapon.
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Old 06-23-2011, 11:21 PM    (permalink
Halsey
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seriously?

"your opinion is irrelevant, but mine isn't"
Never said that. I back up my points with more than "he looks slow".
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Old 06-23-2011, 11:46 PM    (permalink
Halsey
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There's no reason to discuss it. Jones catches the pass at his own 24, turns up field, blows by the LSU defense, and crosses into the endzone in around 9 seconds. The same guy arguing that Jones is slow used Mayock to defend his point. Mayock ranked Jones the 7th best player in the Draft.
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Old 06-24-2011, 12:05 AM    (permalink
Halsey
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you realize there's no relationship whatsoever between those two statements, right?
There's no relationship between using Mayock to back up the opinion that Jones plays slow and where Mayock ranks Jones? I'm pretty sure Maycok wouldn't rank Jones 7th if he thought Jones played slow. ;)
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Old 06-24-2011, 12:17 AM    (permalink
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You want to use Scott's opinion? The guy who wrote this:

"A long strider and a vertical threat with sneaky speed"

Be my guest, but I thought you were arguing against me.
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Old 06-24-2011, 12:30 AM    (permalink
Halsey
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You're arguing Jones plays slow and claim my argument is flawed. Funny.
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Old 06-24-2011, 01:51 AM    (permalink
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please quote where i said jones plays slow. then explain the complete non-sequitur. claiming he plays slow and your argument being flawed are not only inherently unrelated, i could certainly claim both. wait, i'm guessing... mis-direct. are you actually incapable of discussing this rationally, or are you intentionally dishonest?
"jones plays slow."

I found it. :D
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