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Old 08-21-2013, 01:49 AM    (permalink
mightytitan9
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Originally Posted by fenikz View Post
Chris Johnson is definitely a tier above Miller/Wilson imo
Agreed, he gets a lot of hate by fantasy owners, but he finished 13th at the RB position in my league last year in a "down" year.

Consistency may be a problem with him as it has been in the past, but he should be fairly consistent this year with Shonn Greene and the Titans being committed to running the ball.
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Old 08-21-2013, 01:55 AM    (permalink
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Jesus.

Wilson "is a little high" is a stupid statement. He's not going to be there at 50 so if I think he's going for a breakout year and he's worth a 4-5 pick, of course that's not too high.

I'm not budging on my WR strategy unless I really get sold on Bey Bey for Peyton reasons (I was just thinking how in Indy he made Wayne and Harrison rock stars each year). Roddy is already hurt and old, Andre is not worth a high pick in fantasy and really never has been, and Randall Cobb isn't a talent worthy of that high a pick. Plus, I like about a million receivers later. Fitz is the only one I'd take at 24.

As for Chris Johnson, I just don't see him scoring much. I think the Titans offense is borderline putrid with Locker at the helm and Johnson was so god awfully inconsistent it's like if he doesn't break a long one he's simply a bad bet for production. Plus I watch the Jets weekly and Shonn Greene looked good down the stretch. And he looks spry this preseason. I like the OL changes and he's going to be featured somewhat, but I don't see the touchdowns. His stats look OK after the season but he cost his owners weeks early on with horrible performances. Sell me on him - and don't start it off with we got two guards.

Just saw your post... he should be more consistent based on what? He's still seeing limited opportunities because Locker sucks. He's still the first key for the defense. And he's still going to try to bounce everything, short-step through the hole, and try to hit the home run. That's his style. He had an unusual, historic number of big plays in his big years. And you can't count on that, as evidenced by him not being able to come close to that number of long TDs in a season.

I think it was more that he had an UP year that year rather than this being a down year. It just makes sense. Like a batter with a high BABIP.

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Old 08-21-2013, 01:56 AM    (permalink
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Yeah, I expect a bounce back year from CJ2K.

I had him in a league last year and it was so frustrating. He had a few great weeks but he had way too many dud weeks, especially in the earlier and later parts of the season.
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Old 08-21-2013, 02:14 AM    (permalink
mightytitan9
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Just saw your post... he should be more consistent based on what? He's still seeing limited opportunities because Locker sucks. He's still the first key for the defense. And he's still going to try to bounce everything, short-step through the hole, and try to hit the home run. That's his style. He had an unusual, historic number of big plays in his big years. And you can't count on that, as evidenced by him not being able to come close to that number of long TDs in a season.
Improvement on the offensive line. An OC dedicated to running the ball. A rebound in the passing games. Having a chance of pace back that can help establish the run.

All of this will play a big factor. You can't run when you're bringing guys in off the street to start. You can't establish the run when you don't get drives moving. You aren't going to produce when your OC has no idea whats going on, rushing 13 times for 60 yards in the first half (and winning at half) only to receive 1 carry for 4 yards the second half of the game? Yup, that was Chris Palmers philosophy.

You may not like Locker, that's fine, but CJ has produced with KFC and VY, Locker is not a downgrade to either of them.

Shonn Greene is going to help CJ become consistent, not take away from him. We saw this first hand last week against the Redskins, they were having trouble establishing the run with CJ and put Greene in. He powered his way a few times and in comes CJ and bust a 17 yarder on his first play back in. This is a good thing for him.

If you don't want to draft CJ because of the inconsistencies that's fine, but putting him in the same category with the others isn't a fair assessment.

Quote:
Wilson "is a little high" is a stupid statement. He's not going to be there at 50 so if I think he's going for a breakout year and he's worth a 4-5 pick, of course that's not too high.
I may be confused by what you are trying to say here, but either way Wilson is not worth the 24th or 25th pick in the draft.
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Old 08-21-2013, 02:39 AM    (permalink
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I see Johnson just outside the top tier. He has a little more risk than the guys in the top tier, but he could easily finish top 8 or higher this year.
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Old 08-21-2013, 02:43 AM    (permalink
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i took him 37th and wasn't so happy about it

Wilson not CJ2K
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Old 08-21-2013, 08:09 AM    (permalink
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In a PPR Bush is definitely appealing. I've got him around 1500yds, 64 receptions and 6-8tds.

Chris Johnson I have around 1800yds, 45 receptions, 7-8tds.

I think Wilson is just a little high at that pick, unless you were talking about going Brees and then Wilson @ 4/5.
Where do you have Wilson in comparison? 90% of the time I mock my keeper league I end up having Wilson at the top of my board for my 3rd round pick. We are a .5 ppr. I've got him at 1250, 28 receptions, 7 tds. Definitely feel like he could potentially exceed that but I'm typically conservative in my projections.

Next best avail probably would be Lacy or Gio. What I like about Lacy is his TD potential compared to Wilson. I think he's better catching the ball then he's given credit for as well and GB loves to throw the screen.

Anyone else high on Ingram this year? One of those that just feels right for me.
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Old 08-21-2013, 10:06 AM    (permalink
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Wilson is electric with the ball in his hands, but Andre Brown is going to get reps and the goal line carries. We know what is going to happen there, as Coughlin splits his carries anyway. I like both Bush and Sproles better than Wilson, actually.

I also really like both Vereen and Woodhead as slightly later options who will do really well as pass catchers.

Both the Cinci and GB RB situations are a bit unsettled. You can take Bernard and Lacy, but you really can't start them right away as a RB1/2.
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Old 08-21-2013, 10:41 AM    (permalink
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The MFL 10s draft that started last Wednesday is only in round 12 now . . .


The roster is looking studly, though.


8.05 Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB

1.08 Lynch, Marshawn
2.05 Johnson, Chris TEN RB
9.08 Ingram, Mark NOS RB
10.05 Ballard, Vick IND RB

3.08 Cruz, Victor NYG WR
4.05 Garcon, Pierre WAS WR
6.05 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR
7.08 Austin, Miles DAL WR

5.08 Witten, Jason DAL TE
11.08 Sudfeld, Zach NEP TE

12.05 Bears, Chicago CHI Def


Should be able to add one of Eli / Cutler / Palmer / Vick / Weeden as QB2. The way it's going, I may even draft a K (Greg the Leg!) in this draft.
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Old 08-21-2013, 10:55 AM    (permalink
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Wilson is electric with the ball in his hands, but Andre Brown is going to get reps and the goal line carries. We know what is going to happen there, as Coughlin splits his carries anyway. I like both Bush and Sproles better than Wilson, actually.

I also really like both Vereen and Woodhead as slightly later options who will do really well as pass catchers.

Both the Cinci and GB RB situations are a bit unsettled. You can take Bernard and Lacy, but you really can't start them right away as a RB1/2.
As a Jonathan Franklin owner, I think you can be pretty confident starting Lacy. He has been by far the best RB on the Packers during the preseason. Lacy will be the starter and is guaranteed to get the goal line carries. Franklin has shown nothing to be a threat to steal points from him.
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Old 08-21-2013, 10:56 AM    (permalink
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Wilson is electric with the ball in his hands, but Andre Brown is going to get reps and the goal line carries. We know what is going to happen there, as Coughlin splits his carries anyway. I like both Bush and Sproles better than Wilson, actually.

I also really like both Vereen and Woodhead as slightly later options who will do really well as pass catchers.

Both the Cinci and GB RB situations are a bit unsettled. You can take Bernard and Lacy, but you really can't start them right away as a RB1/2.
I have Forte and Ryan Mathews which makes me lean Lacy over Wilson more for keeper value. Struggling with this one.
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Old 08-21-2013, 10:59 AM    (permalink
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Also how do you guys rank out James Jones, Cecil Shorts, and TY Hilton in .5 ppr at the same draft position and as WR3s? Leaning Hilton but tough call.
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Old 08-21-2013, 11:15 AM    (permalink
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I have Forte and Ryan Mathews which makes me lean Lacy over Wilson more for keeper value. Struggling with this one.
I would probably lean Wilson over Lacy because of the known time split and the Giants willingness to run. Additionally, the Packers have a dinged OLine already, so I trust the Giants a little more right now. Finally, the NFC East run D isn't quite as stout as the NFC North teams. To me, that means more opportunities for Wilson in the passing and running games.

I don't trust Matthews right now, especially with a new coach. I would definitely handcuff Woodhead on him
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Old 08-21-2013, 11:16 AM    (permalink
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Also how do you guys rank out James Jones, Cecil Shorts, and TY Hilton in .5 ppr at the same draft position and as WR3s? Leaning Hilton but tough call.
I like all 3 this year, but Hilton is the one with the best upside and the one who will play the most snaps. I rank them close, but Hilton, then Shorts, then Jones. Especially if the Jags wake up and bench Gabbert...
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Old 08-21-2013, 11:22 AM    (permalink
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So I posted a thing yesterday about my 12 team, 2 QB, .5 PPR league. I have the #3 pick and believe Rodgers/Brees will go 1-2. In that scenario, I plan to take Adrian Peterson. After ADP goes, I expect the top QB's and RB's to also go, along with Megatron, leaving me with a small conundrum at 2/10.

I think there will be several top QB and a few top RB options left. I get 2 of the next 6 picks, so I need to look at availability. Let's say my options are:

LeSean McCoy, Alfred Morris, Matt Forte, Ridley
Kaepernik, RG3 or Eli Manning, Russel Wilson, Andrew Luck
AJ Green, Julio Jones

My thinking is that I really can't lose but I think RB is the play because at least 2 (perhaps 3) of the RB's are going in the next few picks because of the sandwich facto, meaning the QB's and top WR's will probably drop to me. Even in a 12 team, 2 QB league, I think QB is super deep, but getting 2 stud RB's and potentially a top 5 WR is just such a huge advantage.
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Old 08-21-2013, 11:44 AM    (permalink
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I'd probably go with McCoy and Green if I had my pick from that group. I agree that I think QBs will drop after the first flurry. Load up later on QBs with upside.
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Old 08-21-2013, 11:47 AM    (permalink
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i'm in a league where we can start 2 qb and my best advice to you is to get two good qb's. obviously don't take one at 3 if brees/rodgers go 1-2, but definitely take one at 2.10
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Old 08-21-2013, 11:47 AM    (permalink
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The MFL 10s draft that started last Wednesday is only in round 12 now . . .


The roster is looking studly, though.


8.05 Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB

1.08 Lynch, Marshawn
2.05 Johnson, Chris TEN RB
9.08 Ingram, Mark NOS RB
10.05 Ballard, Vick IND RB

3.08 Cruz, Victor NYG WR
4.05 Garcon, Pierre WAS WR
6.05 Jackson, DeSean PHI WR
7.08 Austin, Miles DAL WR

5.08 Witten, Jason DAL TE
11.08 Sudfeld, Zach NEP TE

12.05 Bears, Chicago CHI Def


Should be able to add one of Eli / Cutler / Palmer / Vick / Weeden as QB2. The way it's going, I may even draft a K (Greg the Leg!) in this draft.

how long do they usually take to start up? i signed up this morning and haven't even been assigned to a league yet.
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Old 08-21-2013, 11:48 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bsaza2358 View Post
So I posted a thing yesterday about my 12 team, 2 QB, .5 PPR league. I have the #3 pick and believe Rodgers/Brees will go 1-2. In that scenario, I plan to take Adrian Peterson. After ADP goes, I expect the top QB's and RB's to also go, along with Megatron, leaving me with a small conundrum at 2/10.

I think there will be several top QB and a few top RB options left. I get 2 of the next 6 picks, so I need to look at availability. Let's say my options are:

LeSean McCoy, Alfred Morris, Matt Forte, Ridley
Kaepernik, RG3 or Eli Manning, Russel Wilson, Andrew Luck
AJ Green, Julio Jones

My thinking is that I really can't lose but I think RB is the play because at least 2 (perhaps 3) of the RB's are going in the next few picks because of the sandwich facto, meaning the QB's and top WR's will probably drop to me. Even in a 12 team, 2 QB league, I think QB is super deep, but getting 2 stud RB's and potentially a top 5 WR is just such a huge advantage.
Just wait until the 4th for your first QB then take Vick/Palmer later. Stack the rest of your team.
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Old 08-21-2013, 11:50 AM    (permalink
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I would probably lean Wilson over Lacy because of the known time split and the Giants willingness to run. Additionally, the Packers have a dinged OLine already, so I trust the Giants a little more right now. Finally, the NFC East run D isn't quite as stout as the NFC North teams. To me, that means more opportunities for Wilson in the passing and running games.

I don't trust Matthews right now, especially with a new coach. I would definitely handcuff Woodhead on him
I don't necessarily trust Matthews either but his keeper value was too good for what I hope will be my RB3. Wisenhunt never really used LSH like I thought he could so Im not sure how Woodhead will be any different and theres no way Woodhead can carry more than 4-6 times per game. I'm not nearly as high on Woodhead as a cuff compared to other cuffs like Tate, Vereen, Peirce, etc.
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Old 08-21-2013, 11:55 AM    (permalink
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Woodhead has 0 place in a fantasy football discussion. That's like the third time I've heard his name. Get it together guys.
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Old 08-21-2013, 12:00 PM    (permalink
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how long do they usually take to start up? i signed up this morning and haven't even been assigned to a league yet.
I received an email within 24 hours on the two I joined. The first draft took a few days. This one is full of dolts who don't know how to use pre-pick and on jackhole that has apparently already abandoned his team and is being timed out on his picks for three rounds now. 8 hours every time.
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Old 08-21-2013, 12:01 PM    (permalink
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Woodhead has 0 place in a fantasy football discussion. That's like the third time I've heard his name. Get it together guys.
You go ahead and keep passing on him. Thanks!
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Old 08-21-2013, 12:06 PM    (permalink
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Where do you have Wilson in comparison? 90% of the time I mock my keeper league I end up having Wilson at the top of my board for my 3rd round pick. We are a .5 ppr. I've got him at 1250, 28 receptions, 7 tds. Definitely feel like he could potentially exceed that but I'm typically conservative in my projections.

Next best avail probably would be Lacy or Gio. What I like about Lacy is his TD potential compared to Wilson. I think he's better catching the ball then he's given credit for as well and GB loves to throw the screen.

Anyone else high on Ingram this year? One of those that just feels right for me.
Pretty close to you to be honest, I've got him at 1300 total offensive yards, 8tds and 32 receptions.

IF he were to take the job and leave Brown in the dust, I could see him getting 1500yds 10tds and closer to 40 receptions, but that's best case scenario and I'm not grabbing a guy like that based on that assumption.

I like Ingram as a late round gem, he should get some tds and a reasonable amount of yardage, although I'm not relying on him as a starter or even a flex, I'd like him as my 4th RB

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Old 08-21-2013, 12:16 PM    (permalink
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Would you guys consider this trade:

I'd get:
RB Arian Foster
WR Andre Johnson
RB Shane Vereen

They'd Get:
RB CJ Spiller
WR Victor Cruz
RB Ahmad Bradshaw

I feel like this is actually a downgrade for me even though I'm getting some good players. Foster is a question mark at this point and Andre is getting old and although he'll still produce I'd take Cruz over him (and did in the draft) any day of the week.

It's a downgrade right? Should I even mess with countering or just reject it?
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