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Old 07-16-2014, 12:10 PM    (permalink
Jomoz
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Default Jomoz's 2014 NFL Win Total Locks

I do this ever year. I pick a few win totals that look enticing to bet on and analyze this by looking at teams that underperformed the previous year and give them a chance to go over on their win total this year, and conversely I look at teams that over-performed the previous year and give them a chance to go under on their win total this year.

Most people make the mistake of looking at the past year and assuming 90%+ of the league will stay relatively static. There is tremendous turnover in the NFL every year that goes beyond just draft picks and free agency signings. Strength of schedule is a huge factor in teams going from 10 wins to 4 wins and vice versa. Coaching changes are another huge factor. One of the biggest factors is talent attrition and/or regression to the mean. All of these will surprise people when they look at teams that under-perform or over-perform.

This year I have five candidates that have a strong chance to either go under or go over on their win total:

- San Francisco UNDER 10.5 wins (-120): This line is set way too high for a team with as many red flags as San Francisco. They will have a tough schedule this year, playing a ton of prime time games against quality opponents. Their defense will be severely tested by the loss of Navarro Bowman, their best LB, and the decline of their best player overall (Justin Smith). Their secondary is extremely mediocre and will be exposed if the front seven disappoints, which is what I predict. If this defense is the sieve that I think it will be this year, Colin Kaepernick will be extremely limited as a QB because he is a mediocre passer and has had most of his success as a runner playing in close games or with a big lead. Being forced to pass to catch up from behind in games will allow defenses to smother him. The 49ers will also have to deal with burgeoning young talent in their own division in the Rams, and with proven elite talent in Seattle and could easily go 0-4 against these two teams.

- St Louis OVER 7.5 wins (-110): The Rams might lock this bet up by mid-season. They have the most talented defense in their division - maybe the best defensive line in the NFL, and young high-upside players in the secondary like Janoris Jenkins and TJ McDonald and the LB corps like Alec Ogletree -this year and will profit from losses sustained by the other teams. They play the easiest schedule of all the teams in their division this year, while Seattle has to deal with one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. This also goes hand-in-hand with the San Francisco UNDER bet, as the 49ers' fall will make winning 8+ games much easier for the talented Rams. Jeff Fisher has always been a great regular season coach and has extracted the most from talented defensive-oriented teams by not expecting much from his QBs if he can lean on the running game and the defense (which will both be exceptional this year).

- Philadelphia UNDER 9 wins(+115): The Eagles over-performed last year relative to their 2012 season win total, but their 10-6 season in 2013 has blinded people to the reality of their situation. Chip Kelly inherited an immensely talented team that essentially had the best LT in the NFL, the best LG in the NFL, and the best RB in the NFL. Andy Reid had all of this in 2010 and 2011 and went 10-6 and 8-8. In 2012 Jason Peters was knocked out for the season and turmoil in the coaching staff caused the team to quit after a strong 3-1 start. In 2013 Chip Kelly benefited from inheriting this beastly offensive attack and was given a windfall of a weak schedule that practically guaranteed 8+ wins. This year things will be markedly different for Chip Kelly. Their schedule is one of the hardest in the NFL with multiple prime time games against formidable opponents. Their strong offensive line is one of the oldest in the NFL and we cannot count on them to sustain their level of performance from the past 4 years. Their defense will remain a weak point, and with a weakened offense and rough schedule, this team will struggle to win more than 8 games. This line is an overreaction to Chip Kelly's first year's results after lucking into a weak schedule and a talented roster.

- New Orleans OVER 9.5 wins (-150): The Saints played a tough schedule last year and still managed to be one of the best teams in the NFL. They were overshadowed by the excellence of the Seahawks, and had it not been for the Seahawks, would probably have been the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. Despite arguably being the top team in their division last year, they still entered the playoffs as a wild-card and now in 2014 avoid a first-place schedule! I believe that Brees still has 2-3 more years of solid production left, and this defense has enough young players that it will maintain its level of performance into this season. I don't believe that the Falcons will bounce back from last year because their team is bereft of any kind of quality depth. This division is the Saints' to win for the foreseeable future and it's hard to see how they win less than 10 games this year.

- Indianapolis UNDER 10.5 wins (-150): This team was slated for regression last year but managed to fool everyone into believing again that it was a top-tier team. They are not. Robert Mathis rode a PED-fueled wave to a career resurgence as a top-5 pass rusher last year and their defense was still average at best. This year they will be a sieve once again, and the incompetent stumbling of their General Manager Ryan Grigson will begin to negatively affect the quality of this team as their depth is exposed following awful moves like the Trent Richardson trade and the Erik Walden and Ricky Jean Francois signings (both terrible). Andrew Luck is overrated by many due to some lucky fourth quarter performances against poor defenses the past two years. The schedule for the Colts is brutal this year - they will be forced to play a whopping *three* teams coming off bye weeks this year: the New York Giants in Week 8, New England Patriots in Week 11, and the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12. Their schedule is also loaded with prime time games against quality division-winning teams. This win total line is a total overreaction to their over-performing seasons the past two years. Telling someone that this Colts team will win 11 or more games this year is absolutely crazy and you're a fool not to bet on the UNDER instead.

Last edited by Jomoz : 07-16-2014 at 12:14 PM.
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Old 07-16-2014, 02:03 PM    (permalink
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What were your picks last year and the year before?
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Old 07-16-2014, 03:50 PM    (permalink
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What were your picks last year and the year before?
No similar threads listed under the same name. Shocking.
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Old 07-16-2014, 04:14 PM    (permalink
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Your evaluation of the niners is hilarious.

Kaepernick isnt a mediocre passer just because he can run, he makes some brilliant throws and has a very strong arm.

Justin Smith was hurt last year, aldon was suspended and they did fine. Eric reid stepped in nicely, they drafted corey lemonier last year and aaron lynch this year. Tank Carradine didnt play last year but I think theres a good chance he turns into a monster.

Crabtree back at full strength, still have boldin and vern, quinton patton entering his second year...i think they will be just fine. Even if Kaepernick sucks they have a top 3 oline and over one million running backs

Oh and the Bowman is better than willis thing to top it all off, give me a break

Im a steelers fan saying all this, but I would be you must be a rams fan lol. Locking up over 7.5 by mid season lol
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Old 07-16-2014, 04:15 PM    (permalink
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Can I get a over under on Brandon Graham sacks this year and/or years left in his career?
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Old 07-16-2014, 04:41 PM    (permalink
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Can I get a over under on Brandon Graham sacks this year and/or years left in his career?
I love Brandon Graham.

The only one of the 5 above I also love is the SAINTS OVER.

I think the Niners can easily win 11+ games, as they typically are as injury-free as anyone in the NFL.

I think the Colts could easily go 5-1 or 6-0 vs their crappy division.
The Texans, Titans, and Jaguars are as soft as a trio as any good team will face.

Take the under on the Cowboys if it's 8 like it usually is.
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Old 07-16-2014, 06:23 PM    (permalink
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The funniest thing about the Cowboys is that they are annually a sharp play because:

Unlucky, stupid things always happen to them.

Their very, very good QB is undervalued and considered unclutch because of cherry-picked bad moments either nationally televised or given way too much hype because of who he is.

Garrett/coaches constantly screw up in unfathomable ways (the icing kicker incidents, last year's Packer game, etc.)

This is a team that was a drive away, with their backup QB, from winning a division. Yet they are constantly mocked as a joke franchise.

Their defense should be better, their offensive line should be elite, but if you're looking for teams that underperformed and are undervalued, Dallas is the best bet. The defense has no where to go but up. Losing Lee sucks, but at least they can prepare their LB corps now rather than trying to do things on the fly. I don't love the system, but it's the second year. They added Lawrence. And again, there will be SOME progression to the mean.

I'd take their over at 8. It would have to be an abomination coaching wise for that roster to not win 8 games. And it's been near abominations the past two years and they win 8 and lose a few in heart-breaking fashion.

Yes, they are the cowboys with romo lulzzzz so obviously they are going to blow it, but I don't believe he has some unclutch gene. I think he's capable. He's just had some bad moments, and the WORST moment (which really has nothing at all to do with him playing QB), plus his off-field personality has made him considered a joke. I think that non-football perception or at least exaggeration very slightly affects the market, which makes them a sharper play than "omg lets see what the cowboys number is lol they have romo and the defense sux."

The only thing I can't get behind is moving to a Tampa 2 and hiring a 90-yr old DC in today's game. But again, it's year two and they added a guy I love in Lawrence. And Melton, and with the LBs they at least know now they can't count on Lee and need to coach them up.
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Old 07-16-2014, 06:48 PM    (permalink
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If unlucky things keep happening it, then it might be on them.

I agree Romo is undervalued. He is a good solid starting QB, but no one is going to give him any credit until he wins more. Having 8-8 seasons recently and having 1 playoff win will do that. It's just the nature of the position.

The NFC East was competitive but that doesn't mean the teams were good.

Cowboys are undersold but they have to prove it to shake their label.
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Old 07-16-2014, 07:05 PM    (permalink
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Every year, everybody falls into the same trap of assuming the NFL will remain static.

At least 3+ teams that did well (i.e. 9+ wins) will do poorly this year, and at least 3+ teams that did poorly last year will do well this year. This happens EVERY SINGLE YEAR.

Last off-season, if I had said that the Falcons (after winning their division and hosting the NFCCG) and Texans (after winning their division and making it to the divisional round of the playoffs) were candidates for 4-12 and 2-14 seasons, respectively, you would have called me insane.

And if I had championed the Chiefs to win 11 games after picking #1 overall, or the Panthers to win their division, you also would have laughed.

Face it, "Elite" is such a temporary status in the NFL. One of the best teams, and best defenses, can become one of the worst in a single off-season. Of the teams that did well last year, some of them are guaranteed to become bottom-5 teams this year. It's just a matter of predicting which. These are my predictions.

You can't just say that every team that won 10+ games last year will do the same this year. If you don't agree with my picks, name at least 2-3 teams that won 10+ games last year that will win less than 7 games this year. There are going to be some that do this.
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Old 07-16-2014, 08:14 PM    (permalink
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If unlucky things keep happening it, then it might be on them.

I agree Romo is undervalued. He is a good solid starting QB, but no one is going to give him any credit until he wins more. Having 8-8 seasons recently and having 1 playoff win will do that. It's just the nature of the position.

The NFC East was competitive but that doesn't mean the teams were good.

Cowboys are undersold but they have to prove it to shake their label.
This type of mentality can't win you money in the long run. You'll always be behind the lines.
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Old 07-18-2014, 11:42 AM    (permalink
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Are we talking hypothetical wins or actual wins here.
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Old 07-18-2014, 12:09 PM    (permalink
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Are we talking hypothetical wins or actual wins here.
Obviously hypotheticals. Always.
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Old 07-18-2014, 07:21 PM    (permalink
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Are we talking hypothetical wins or actual wins here.
hypothetical sacks from hypothetical starter playing time from hypothetical elite defensive end talent...hypothetically
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Old Yesterday, 05:55 AM    (permalink
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The NFL is a schedule/QB driven league, if you draw an easy schedule, your chances to make the playoffs increase substantially, especially if you have a franchise QB, if you draw a tough schedule, you will need a solid franchise QB to overcome your tough draw and give you a shot to get to the playoffs.

Conferences that have to play the NFC West this year, will never get 2 teams to the playoffs, etc., etc. Examining schedules can usually give you a clear picture of which conferences have a real shot at producing 2 playoff teams and which conferences have zero chances.

If you want to bet on games, you need to know these facts and of course, we all know, defending SB champs don't usually play that well the following season.

Then there are injuries, SB champions generally are lucky with injuries the year they win, while some real contenders can fall by the wayside quickly if injuries take their toll.

The NFL knows that this formula practically guarantees 3 to 5 new playoff teams each year. A team has to really stink to not make the playoffs at least twice a decade.
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Old Yesterday, 10:32 AM    (permalink
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Texans Under 8.5 (over -110)

Ryan Fitzpatrick is a pretty bad Quaterback. The defense is good, but not nearly talented enough to consistently overcome a bad offense.
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Old Yesterday, 10:39 AM    (permalink
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Can I get a over under on Brandon Graham sacks this year and/or years left in his career?
Well, he'll have more sacks than Kevin Kolb has pass attempts.

Man, I love me some Thumper threads.
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Old Yesterday, 01:09 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bucs_Rule View Post
Texans Under 8.5 (over -110)

Ryan Fitzpatrick is a pretty bad Quaterback. The defense is good, but not nearly talented enough to consistently overcome a bad offense.
I don't mind this one at all.

Rookie head coach, the secondary isn't great, and people will point to the last two worst teams making the playoffs (Chiefs, Colts).

But the truth is that Fitzpatrick really isn't that bad. To me, it's more on BOB than him. They have a loooooot of talent.
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