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Old 09-08-2011, 07:04 PM    (permalink
gpngc
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Default gpngc NFL Predictions 2011

Last year someone on the internet was SCORCHED for predicting the following:

Josh Freeman would lead the Buccaneers to a 10-6 record

Peyton Hillis would rush for over 1000 yards

Brandon Lloyd would lead the league in receiving

The Seahawks would upset the Saints in the playoffs

among other predictions.

My point is - anything can and will happen. You can dismiss a pick and bash it if you'd like, but the reality is NO ONE KNOWS how it will go down this year. Chalk posts that pick the same teams the media is gushing about are way more pointless than going out on a limb. My predictions are outlandish compared to the general consensus - your post saying "that will never happen" or "I'll eat my hat" or posting a funny picture is pointless. These are my predictions and obviously all won't come true, but there is no way you can PROVE that it's wrong right now. You can explain why you disagree with a pick but no one can be certain about what will and won't happen.

The reason I preface my picks with this is twofold:

1) There are A LOT of variables from now until the end. Injuries being the most significant. You can't knock a prediction because all your chalk picks assume health for every team.

2) The NFL NEVER works out the way the prognosticators predict. EVER. This is a fact. The biggest surprise of the 2011 year would be if the Pats beat the Eagles in the SB and all the division winners were the obvious ones, Jets/Ravens wild card with the Lions and Texans as the "surprises" in. I'll break my own rule - if that happens, the scenario EVERYONE is predicting - I'll eat my hat.

Something a lot of people often overlook is execution. Often we think if a team is better on paper, it will win more games. That is NEVER the case. The bottom line is teams win and lose because of HOW THEY PERFORM mixed with a whole lot of luck. Sometimes I wonder if people realize this. There is no set answer. There is no destiny. EVERY YEAR there are games that make no ******* sense whatsoever. That's what makes this game so great.

Two other factors that are always fluid year-to-year:

CB PLAY
If you look at a lot of my turnaround surprise teams (MIN, DAL, DEN, HOU, WAS, ARZ), they all suffered from poor CB play last season that I predict will improve this season. Same goes for teams that got GREAT play out of their CBs last year that I predict will fall off. In today's passing league, CB is one of the most difficult positions to play consistently - so I usually project a regression to the mean either way.

TURNOVERS
When you look at teams with young QBs like Cassel and Freeman - and they didn't throw a lot of picks - you have to either assume they are elite signal-callers or that they'll inevitably turn the ball over more this year (especially against stronger defenses on the schedule). Turnovers can sometimes literally be a product of the bounce of the ball so a regression to the mean is usually a smart projection. For example, a team like Miami, with a very good defense, is a prime candidate to dramatically improve on their TO ratio of -11.

In other words, NO prediction, no matter how stupid YOU think it is, is a bad one. Not in this NFL.


AFC East

1 - Patriots: 10-6
They'll start out well and look dominant early, but a midseason lull will force them to hustle down the stretch to get in the playoffs. Their defense will be improved, but remain inconsistent. Their passing game won't execute as well as it did last season.

2 - Dolphins: 10-6

Reggie Bush will be in the MVP discussion, the defense will continue to play at an extremely high level, and Henne will step his game up. A team with a dominant defense can gain confidence and momentum easily with a couple of big, timely plays. Expect Bush to provide them with those.

3 - Jets: 9-7

The Jets won a lot of games late last year with Holmes' heroics. Their defense wasn't fantastic and lack of depth along the defensive line will be their downfall. Sanchez will put up better numbers statistically, but they'll be inconsistent in the running game and weaknesses along both lines will doom them.

4 - Bills: 5-11

Fitzpatrick will keep them competitive enough to not get Andrew Luck. Defensively, they'll be better but below average. C.J. Spiller will put up a couple of big games.

AFC North

1 - Ravens: 12-4
Playing the NFC West and Manning-less AFC South, the Ravens will win all the games they should and get a big year out of Flacco, Rice, and Lee Evans. Their secondary will struggle, but it won't matter until the playoffs.

2 - Browns: 8-8

Colt McCoy will move the ball consistently despite having no receivers. They'll take advantage of an easy schedule, but their defense will be too inconsistent. Montario Hardesty will get starter's carries by midseason.

3 - Steelers: 8-8
Injuries will kill the Steelers and Big Ben will throw more picks than usual because of a bad offensive line. The defense won't feature the pass rush it usually, which will expose the secondary even more. Why will the perfect storm hit Blitzburgh? Karma a year late? I don't need a logical reason.

4 - Bengals: 5-11
A few upsets will be the highlight of the season as the defense and running game will be bright spots. However, Andy Dalton will struggle and be benched eventually. They'll win a few games they shouldn't in spite of him. Just a warning: CARSON PALMER WILL BE HEARD FROM AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. How, what, and why - I don't know.

AFC South
1 - Texans: 13-3
Wade Phillips will make a huge difference on defense, and Joseph and Manning will prove to be excellent additions in the secondary. The pass rush will be greatly improved, and Ben Tate will have an awesome year at RB. This team won way too many close games last year that simply have to go the other way this year (Jets, Ravens, Jags, etc.).

2 - Colts: 7-9
The Colts offense won't be that bad but the entire team will lose confidence without #18. I can't predict him coming back in Week 10, running the table, and winning Super Bowl MVP. I want to, but I can't. Delone Carter will be a silver lining for an otherwise lost season.

3 - Titans: 6-10
Matt Hasselbeck will go down after a few flashes and they'll struggle to move the ball with CJ either 2K or 2.0YPC. Jared Cook will have a couple of huge games and Jake Locker will show some promise, but the defense won't be more than average - especially against the pass.

4 - Jaguars: 4-12

Cecil Shorts and Mike Thomas will be the bright spots, but they'll struggle to score. An improved defense won't mean much because of how bad it was last year.

AFC West
1 - Chargers: 12-4
Everything will break right and Philip Rivers will have an amazing season - 4000/30/10. The defense will play well, the overhauled special teams will obviously be much better, and Ryan Mathews will take over for Tolbert and challenge for the rushing title. Bob Sanders will prove to be a huge signing.

2 - Raiders: 9-7
They have a sneaky-good roster. Their passing game will be improved led by a more confident Jason Campbell and the defense won't miss a beat without Nnamdi. Taiwan Jones will make a big impact, probably because of a D-Mac injury.

3 - Broncos: 8-8
John Fox will change the culture of the franchise and feature a much better Knowshon and McGahee with Orton reverting back into a game manager. The defense will overachieve, helped by Miller and the return of Dumervil, but mostly because they'll play a solid Fox 4-3 rather than whatever it is they thought they were playing last year when Oakland was putting up 60 points a half on them.

4 - Chiefs: 5-11

They had everything break right for them last year, including a cake schedule. Expect more of what occurred in the playoff game this season. Jamaal Charles will make some plays but could go down easily and definitely won't come near his record-breaking YPC mark from last season. Defensively, they'll be solid but Matt Cassel will struggle mightily with a less-dominant running game and no NFC West on the schedule.

NFC East
1 - Cowboys: 11-5
Dez Bryant will put up video game numbers and the defense will play better simply because it can't play any worse. Jason Garrett will get COY consideration.

2 - Eagles: 10-6
Michael Vick will play all 16 games but will look more like the old Vick in terms of reading defenses and passing. It's possible that last year was more of a coincidence that he played some of his best games as a QB rather than him turning some undefinable "corner" as a passer. He'll be electric and creative, masking a questionable OL, but inconsistent like down the stretch of last year. Also, Casey Matthews will be a huge liability inside and their inability to stop the run will hurt them from the beginning in a few games.

3 - Redskins: 7-9
Rex Grossman will lead them off to a fast start and keep them in contention until the wheels fall off late. They'll run it well all season and their defense will play better, but ultimately it won't be enough.

4 - Giants: 6-10
Injuries and poor play at LB and DB will be the downfall of this Giants team. Eli Manning won't throw 20 picks again, but the defense will take a step back without a healthy Umenyoria. JPP will get sacks, but at the expense of their run defense.

NFC North

1 - Vikings: 10-6
Donovan McNabb will revive his career and Percy Harvin will have a huge year as his go-to target. Their offensive line won't look as bad with playaction working so well because Adrian Peterson will be a legitimate MVP candidate. On defense, they'll get contributions across the board and revert back to the way they played two years ago.

2 - Packers: 10-6

Aaron Rodgers will miss a couple of games and the Packers defense won't look as dominant as it did at times last year. They'll struggle running the ball because McCarthy will inexplicably stick with an ineffective Ryan Grant over James Starks.

3 - Lions: 8-8
Everyone's favorite darkhorse will put up big numbers on offense but won't have enough of a running game and will lose the turnover battle because of it. Defensively, they'll make some big plays, but will also give up way too many as 16 games of Stafford will be bittersweet with the arrow pointing up.

4 - Bears: 6-10
Incredibly lucky last year, the Bears won't get all the bounces this year, as struggles along the offensive line will slow down their sputtering offense. The defense will be OK, but a tougher division and schedule will have the whole program unraveling by midseason.

NFC South
1 - Saints: 11-5
Everyone is talking about the Eagles, but the Saints made a bunch of moves on defense that make them the clear-cut favorite in the NFC (Franklin, Rogers, etc.). Darren Sproles will play the Reggie Bush role smoother than Bush did, Ingram will score from 5-and-in every time, and Brees will continue to utilize his diverse arsenal as well as anyone in the league. Roman Harper and Malcolm Jenkins will play better in the secondary which will lead to a much better turnover ratio this year.

2 - Panthers: 7-9
Cam Newton will just winz gamez as he's done at every level. The running attack will carry the team and they'll win a couple of close upsets thanks to splash plays by an underrated group of DEs. The overlooked O-line will be the strength of the team.

3 - Falcons: 7-9

With a much tougher slate, the Falcons defense will be exposed and Brent Grimes won't have as much success as he did last season. Ray Edwards will be a massive free agent bust and a regression by the running attack will force them to throw it more than they should.

4 - Buccaneers: 5-11
Like the Chiefs, the upstart Bucs will get a dose of reality without the Seahawks and their ******** friends on the schedule. Freeman will throw more picks, Mason Foster will struggle at Mike leading a defense that already had issues against the run, and a lackluster group of running backs will force them to pass too much.

NFC West
1 - Cardinals: 10-6
Beanie Wells AND Kevin Kolb will break out - but neither will be their best offensive player as the 120 Million Dollar Man will prove his worth with an epic season, vaulting him into the best receiver of all-time conversation. An underrated starting defensive line will help generate pressure, Kerry Rhodes will have a bunch of picks, and Patrick Peterson will prove to be an upgrade over DRC.

2 - 49ers: 9-7
Frank Gore will stay healthy for all 16 finally and Alex Smith will excel in a true WCO, developing a nice rapport with the zombie formerly known as Michael Crabtree. The solid defense will stay solid and Aldon Smith will start showing signs in the second half of the season.

3 - Rams: 6-10
An underrated defense will continue to play well, but not well enough in the secondary on key third downs against the big WRs in the division. Sam Bradford will take one step forward and two steps back, struggling at times with Josh McDaniels' new offense. With inconsistent WRs and a diminishing running game, the Rams will be one of the unluckiest teams in the league in close games.

4 - Seahawks: 3-13
If preseason is any indication, the offensive line will somehow be WORSE than last season. Lynch will have about a 2.9 YPC, Rice won't stay healthy, the secondary will be atrocious and the talented young safeties will make huge plays here and give up huge plays there. This franchise will continue to be haunted by it's terrible decision to draft Aaron Curry over Mark Sanchez. Then Andrew Luck will change everything.

Regular Season Awards
MVP: Philip Rivers
OPOY: Larry Fitzgerald
DPOY: Brian Orakpo
OROY: Delone Carter
DROY: Jimmy Smith
CBPOY: Matt Stafford

PLAYOFFS
AFC
1 - Texans
2 - Chargers
3 - Ravens
4 - Patriots
5 - Dolphins
6 - Raiders

NFC
1 - Cowboys
2 - Saints
3 - Cardinals
4 - Vikings
5 - Packers
6 - Eagles

Wild Card Round
Ravens 34, Raiders 21
Patriots 13, Dolphins 0
Eagles 35, Cardinals 17
Packers 23, Vikings 20

Divisional Round
Chargers 45, Ravens 28
Patriots 28, Texans 25
Eagles 31, Cowboys 28
Packers 33, Saints 30

AFC Championship
Chargers 22, Patriots 19
Packers 16, Eagles 11

Super Bowl XLVI
Chargers 31, Packers 24
Super Bowl MVP: Philip Rivers

2012 NFL Draft Top 6
1 - Seahawks: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
2 - Jaguars: Alshon Jeffrey, WR, South Carolina
3 - Bengals: Devin Taylor, DE, South Carolina
4 - Bills: Matt Barkley, QB, USC
5 - Chiefs: Matt Kalil, OT, USC
6 - Buccaneers: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
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Last edited by gpngc : 09-08-2011 at 07:24 PM.
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Old 09-08-2011, 07:16 PM    (permalink
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So this is the 3rd prediction thread on page 1?
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Old 09-08-2011, 07:23 PM    (permalink
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The packers lose or win vs. the Saints, which is it
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Old 09-08-2011, 07:24 PM    (permalink
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Sorry lol... i realized
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Old 09-08-2011, 07:39 PM    (permalink
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5-11? Riiiiight.
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Old 09-08-2011, 07:47 PM    (permalink
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Ehh.... I don't agree. Miami will be worse. I don;t see them finishing ahead of the Jets or even Bills.

Baltimore and Pittsburgh play the same schedule. I think they'll both be in the playoffs again.

NFC South wise, Tampa and Carolina plays the same schedule. I don't see how Carolina is in a better position than Tampa or even Atlanta right now.

The Falcons 7-9? Ehh, I say 11-5, Tampa 8-8, and Carolina 5-11
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Old 09-08-2011, 07:53 PM    (permalink
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I would be fine with a 5-11 record would be a improvement over last year. I doubt they bench Andy Dalton unless he gets hurt during the season. I think they will just go with the growing pains of Dalton.
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Old 09-08-2011, 08:32 PM    (permalink
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I love you <3
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Old 09-08-2011, 11:00 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
Ingram will score from 5-and-in every time
unfortunately didn't happen tonight
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Old 09-08-2011, 11:06 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by needled24_7 View Post
unfortunately didn't happen tonight
Lol good catch.

0 for 1.
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Old 09-08-2011, 11:08 PM    (permalink
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I was about to profess my love for you until I saw you had us losing to the Packers in the playoffs.

But really I don't see us making the playoffs. I think 8-8 is pretty likely.
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Old 09-08-2011, 11:14 PM    (permalink
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What is this CJ 2.0YPC stuff, anyway? I get it's a play on words/terms, but what are people suggesting, exactly? I mean if you take away the long runs for 99.9% of backs, their stats probably start to look pretty poor too.
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Old 09-08-2011, 11:35 PM    (permalink
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I love Oakland making the playoffs and agree with what you said about them.
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Old 09-09-2011, 12:17 AM    (permalink
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The Jets O-Line is one of the best in the league....they will be a strength, not a hinderance. Even the lone "unproven" spot in Wayne Hunter at RT came on strong late in the season, owning Julius Peppers and Lamar Woodley during the season(Cam Wake was the only one who ruined Hunter but that was the game Woody left with an injury and put Hunter unexpectedly in the game.... and besides its Cam Wake). He did a good job filling in for Damien Woody, so I am somewhat confident he could be effective this season. The O-Line depth does suck though until Rob Turner can comeback so if an early injury happens...then big trouble. Though you can say that for most teams.

I also think the Jets added MORE depth on the D-Line compared to last year. Gone is Shaun Ellis and old Trevor Pryce....in is Kenrick Ellis, Mohammed Wilkerson, and one of the Jets standouts in preseason in NT/DE Ropati Pitoitua whose season was lost last preseason.

The only thing standing in the Jets way is chemistry between Sanchez and his WRs, and Brian Schottenheimer who always stands in the Jets way from running an efficient offense....though I have a glimmer of hope that Tom Moore can maybe correct Schotty's wrongs.

I also think the Jets should beat the Raiders, even if its in Oakland which would give the tiebreaker to the Jets under your scenario gpngc.

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Old 09-09-2011, 12:23 AM    (permalink
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Ur predictions suck, especially the NFC West. Good day. No way the Cardinals and 49ers are winning that many games. I HAVE POISONED THE KEVIN KOLB GATORADE!
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Old 09-09-2011, 12:25 AM    (permalink
Brodeur
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I don't think anyone actually predicted Peyton Hillis would rush for over 1000 yards or Brandon Lloyd would lead the league in receiving.
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Old 09-09-2011, 12:30 AM    (permalink
nrk
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Lol good catch.

0 for 1.
Starks had more carries than Grant. GRANTed its only 1 game. har har har
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Old 09-09-2011, 12:56 AM    (permalink
vidae
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Starks had more carries than Grant. GRANTed its only 1 game. har har har
I don't get it.
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Old 09-09-2011, 01:05 AM    (permalink
yodabear
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5-11? Riiiiight.
I think he hates Missouri. Its a conspiracy!
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Old 09-09-2011, 01:07 AM    (permalink
vidae
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I think he hates Missouri. Its a conspiracy!
We shall beat him up now Yoda!
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Old 09-09-2011, 01:15 AM    (permalink
Brodeur
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I think he hates Missouri. Its a conspiracy!
People like Missouri?
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Old 09-09-2011, 01:19 AM    (permalink
yodabear
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We shall beat him up now Yoda!
Lets do it! 11 wins for the two Missouri teams is way too low!
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Old 09-09-2011, 01:20 AM    (permalink
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People like Missouri?
Well, most people, are like whatever about Missouri. They don't care too much about Missouri. But this guy hates it.
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Old 09-09-2011, 02:20 AM    (permalink
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That reasoning on the giants pick is a little baffling. Poor play from the DBs? I'm guessing your assuming we'll get more injuries at the position. And I'm much more worried about Tuck's injury than Osi's. Osi's just trying to get a bigger deal, Tuck's actually banged up, plus JPP's a better run defender than Osi anyways.
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JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 09-09-2011, 09:23 AM    (permalink
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yeah, JPP is a much better run stuffer than Osi at this point...your logic is just terrible. I don't mind saying we'll suck...but have legit explainations at least. It's funny because barring the injuries at CB, most Giants fans are more excited about the defense and much more worried about the O. but then again, you're kind of known for literally throwing out bold predictions, seeing what **** will stick on the wall, and coming back later bragging about it
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BTW, if it's 3rd and 97... I'm throwing a screen pass to Brian Leonard and he will convert.
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