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Old 11-07-2014, 03:08 PM    (permalink
Jomoz
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Default Was the Julio Jones trade worth it?

So we all remember the trade in which the Browns received three 2011 selections: the Falcons’ first-round pick (No. 27), the Falcons’ second-round pick (No. 59) and the Falcons’ fourth-round pick (No. 124). They also received the Falcons’ No. 1 pick in 2012 (No. 22) and their No. 4 pick in 2012 (No. 118).

The Falcons thought they were "one piece away" and took probably the best or second best WR prospect in that draft.

Has Julio Jones turned into a good player? His numbers so far in his career:

2011: 54/95 receptions, 959 yards, 8 TDs
2012: 79/128 receptions, 1198 yards, 10 TDs
2013: 41/59 receptions, 580 yards, 2 TDs
2014: 53/83 receptions, 734 yards, 3 TDs

So he's had some good production with one stellar year in 2012. Let's assume his 2014 numbers end up similar to what he did in 2012. He's probably a top-6 maybe top-3 WR in the NFL right now.

But was this production worth two first round picks, a second round pick and two fourth round picks? All of this for one very good WR?

How much does a good WR actually help you win games? Look at the Falcons the past two years. Because of bad depth on OL and DL, they've been a losing football team. Football is won by your QB, OL, and DL, and the depth on those fronts. WRs putting up numbers can be fun for fantasy football, but in the end they aren't nearly as important to winning games.

With all of those picks they relinquished in that trade, they could have bolstered the depth on their team overall. Would Matt Ryan be putting up numbers? I think he would still be doing well, especially if his OL was better.

Of course the Browns misspent those draft picks and basically drafted a bunch of guys that are not on their roster anymore, but if the Falcons had been picking with those draft picks instead, they might have done much better. You can't use the Browns' draft incompetence as evidence that the Falcons wouldn't be better with those draft picks than with Julio Jones, imho.

Thoughts on the trade now that 3+ years have passed and the Falcons have been a bad team the past two years?
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Old 11-07-2014, 03:13 PM    (permalink
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I think it was a good trade....i think Matt Ryan is an OK QB but when you put Julio, White, Turner, and Gonzo on the team he can be a great QB. They have nothing close to the running game they had with Turner though and their oline sucks and that combination is a nightmare for a team that likes to attack down field. Given all the injuries they had on the line i have no idea how they didnt pursue SOMEONE before the trade deadline
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Old 11-07-2014, 03:18 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by K Train View Post
I think it was a good trade....i think Matt Ryan is an OK QB but when you put Julio, White, Turner, and Gonzo on the team he can be a great QB. They have nothing close to the running game they had with Turner though and their oline sucks and that combination is a nightmare for a team that likes to attack down field. Given all the injuries they had on the line i have no idea how they didnt pursue SOMEONE before the trade deadline
Don't you think they could have used those draft picks they gave up to make their overall team better right now?

Like if they had landed a good OL and/or good DL in some of those picks, maybe they'd be better with that than with a good WR, because good QBs can always manufacture points but the team can't win with bad OL or DL...
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Old 11-07-2014, 03:19 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't have done it, didn't agree with it, but in truth if the ball bounces a different way in the 2012 playoffs they might be Super Bowl champs. So you have to kind of respect what they did, because if they had won their first championship nobody here or anywhere would have said it was a mistake. They went for it.
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Old 11-07-2014, 03:21 PM    (permalink
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Didn't think it was worth it when they made the trade, didn't change my mind in 2012, when Julio was putting up monster numbers, and I still don't think it was worth it now.
In general I don't have an issue about having a somewhat agressive approach on draftday, and go after what you consider to be unique talent, if the price is right.
However, that does not mean you should be gutting the depth of your roster for years to come, by trading away a big haul of picks.
The Falcons overpaid for Julio, and are paying the price right now. This might end up costing GM Tom Dmitroff his job.
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Old 11-07-2014, 04:31 PM    (permalink
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I think the trade was clearly worth it. The traded a bunch of picks and hit on an elite WR. Julio Jones individually is worth the picks they traded. He has had some injuries but he is an elite level player when on the field.

I know they could have bolstered their team with those picks but there is no guarantee that any of those guys stick on the roster anyways. With hindsight, between a sure thing top WR and a handful of good picks I take the WR. The Falcons probably would have done better with the picks but they could still have missed on them as well and there is no assurance that they use the picks on OL and DL. Some of the hypothetical guys they draft might not even fit into their current schemes.

The Falcons have many issues as a team and have been ravaged by injuries recently. Not doing the Julio Jones trade would not have been a silver bullet to save their current team.. The two years where they had nice playoff runs this trade wouldn't have even been questioned.
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Old 11-07-2014, 04:59 PM    (permalink
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Better question, was it worth it for the browns?

They traded Atlantas first round pick to move up and get phil taylor, which gave atlanta Justin Houston and Jon Baldwin

Then they drafted Greg Little (gone), Owen Maracic (gone) in 2011

Then, the used that 2012 first rounder from Atlanta on Brandon Weeden and the 4th rounder. And they gave away most of the other picks they got to swap with minnesota to get trent and it got messy looking but former cleveland/atlanta picks ended up being blair walsh, jarius wright, and ronnie hillman in some fashion.

So essentially....the browns ended up with a...........a nose tackle for julio jones...lmao
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Old 11-07-2014, 05:25 PM    (permalink
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Like I said at the time...no receiver is worth what they traded for him. Not CJ, not Jerry Rice, not anyone. That's especially true at a time when pretty good receivers keep getting traded for peanuts.

Yes, they got a top wideout. Unfortunately, a top wideout can't drag bad linemen to a ring.

When that trade went down, I said they should have stood pat and spent the picks on linemen. I stand by that. Everything starts in the trenches.
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Old 11-07-2014, 05:32 PM    (permalink
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They would have a decent line right now but Hawley, Konz, and Baker all had season ending injuries....those 3 with matthews and blalock isnt a bad squad
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Old 11-07-2014, 06:06 PM    (permalink
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They wanted their guy, they got their guy. He's one of the best in the NFL and people bring this thread up annually or any time Julio Jones gets hurt. They got a top flight receiver when they wouldn't have had a chance to get a guy like that otherwise. Of course the trade was worth it. They've had plenty of draft picks despite the trade. The trade isn't why the Falcons aren't good. Not having made the trade wouldn't make the Falcons better. They'd actually probably be worse.

Just look at what the Browns got out of that trade:
Trade Up for Phil Taylor or Jonathan Baldwin (take your pick)
Greg Little
Owen Marecic
Brandon Weeden
James Michael Johnson

If you had those 5 players and were offered Julio Jones for those 5 players, would you make the trade? Of ******* course you would.
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Old 11-07-2014, 11:53 PM    (permalink
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I think it was worth it for Atlanta, they are still in a position were one solid draft makes them a real contender again. For Cleveland, it was almost a total disaster.
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Old 11-08-2014, 07:25 AM    (permalink
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The Falcons have used top 3 round picks on the likes of Peria Jerry, Peter Konz, Lamar Holmes and Akeem Dent in recent Drafts. Why should I think they would have used all those picks they gave up well? At least Julio is a good player.
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Old 11-08-2014, 07:46 AM    (permalink
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I questioned it at the time but just recently had this conversation with my friends and we agreed it was probably worth it. Julio is a monster. Maybe they aren't going to win a sb because of him but he goves them one of the best playmakers in the league.
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Old 11-08-2014, 07:54 AM    (permalink
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The only conceivable way it wasn't worth it is if the Falcons were planning on taking Randall Cobb in the 2nd round.

I'd rather have a mix of Cobb + the two first-round picks (say Taylor and David DeCastro) than Julio Jones.

There are probably only about 5 or 6 more 3-for-1 trades I would do given the possibilities out of over a million.

So yes, it was worth it. The only way they're kicking themselves is if they were targeting Cobb in the 2nd round.

And even then, Julio is better.

Plus, they were a play away from the SB, in large part due to Julio. Had the officials called PI on Bowman against Roddy and the Falcons move on, the trade magically becomes worth it then?

All you can ask for draft picks is that they become good players. Julio's become one of the very best in the league. There's no guarantee that the 3 or 4 picks they traded for him would even become serviceable contributors, let alone stars.

And winning a SB is the ultimate goal, but not the only goal. Every single NFL move can't be judged by whether or not the team won the Super Bowl after they made it.

Was trading for Percy Harvin a good move because they won the SB that year?

Was trading for Curtis Martin "not worth it" because the Jets never won a SB?
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Old 11-08-2014, 07:55 AM    (permalink
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No question that Atlanta won the trade if you compare jones to the players Cleveland picked up. But it's really hard for me to judge the trade because it's quite impossible to tell who Atlanta would've picked up had they kept those picks. If Atlanta wins the championship, yes, the trade is worth it.

As it stands, Atlanta has a pretty bad team. I had them pegged for a bounce back season and a wild card berth this year, but I was really really wrong on that account. That being said, I think they'd rather have the picks and the extra help. I mean, honestly, if you're the gm today, do you make that exact same picks package for jones?

I can't say that I would.
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Old 11-08-2014, 01:20 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta won the deal and yes it was a good trade. Playing the "what if" game only works on forum boards when you can act like every other pick was gonna be a stud. All you heard after the deal was "Falcons were so dumb they could have gotten Greg Little in the 2nd anyway Roddy is already a #1" so now they'll just plug in the 1 pro bowler from the 5th and say what if Atlanta took them. Pull up Atlantas last 8 first rd picks and tell me how we could assume anything with their picks.

They took an instant stud, a guy to grow with Ryan and make Roddys last years stretch longer. Julio is one of the best receivers in the entire league. I hate the argument "but how good is he making them". How good is Keuchly making the Panthers? How good did JJ Watt make Houston last year? How good was Revis making the Jets? Yea we don't want any of those guys because their teams were bad. Right?

I guarantee if ATL wanted to move Julio they could get back two 1st anyway, and they would not do it. That shows they got their value and a guy who still has value to prove.
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Old 11-09-2014, 02:04 AM    (permalink
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Atlanta won the deal and yes it was a good trade. Playing the "what if" game only works on forum boards when you can act like every other pick was gonna be a stud. All you heard after the deal was "Falcons were so dumb they could have gotten Greg Little in the 2nd anyway Roddy is already a #1" so now they'll just plug in the 1 pro bowler from the 5th and say what if Atlanta took them. Pull up Atlantas last 8 first rd picks and tell me how we could assume anything with their picks.

They took an instant stud, a guy to grow with Ryan and make Roddys last years stretch longer. Julio is one of the best receivers in the entire league. I hate the argument "but how good is he making them". How good is Keuchly making the Panthers? How good did JJ Watt make Houston last year? How good was Revis making the Jets? Yea we don't want any of those guys because their teams were bad. Right?

I guarantee if ATL wanted to move Julio they could get back two 1st anyway, and they would not do it. That shows they got their value and a guy who still has value to prove.
Julio is worth the picks, but can you say that Atlanta wouldn't be better with more talented players? One of their biggest problems is that they lack depth. They gave up three marquee picks and also two fourths. 4 players for one.
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Old 11-09-2014, 03:58 AM    (permalink
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They wanted their guy, they got their guy. He's one of the best in the NFL and people bring this thread up annually or any time Julio Jones gets hurt. They got a top flight receiver when they wouldn't have had a chance to get a guy like that otherwise. Of course the trade was worth it. They've had plenty of draft picks despite the trade. The trade isn't why the Falcons aren't good. Not having made the trade wouldn't make the Falcons better. They'd actually probably be worse.

Just look at what the Browns got out of that trade:
Trade Up for Phil Taylor or Jonathan Baldwin (take your pick)
Greg Little
Owen Marecic
Brandon Weeden
James Michael Johnson

If you had those 5 players and were offered Julio Jones for those 5 players, would you make the trade? Of ******* course you would.
Sooooooooo your argument is that the Falcons would have taken the same players the Browns took if they hadn't made the trade?

Atlanta traded a truckload of picks for a luxury position player and they still suck. That's a big, fat failure.
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Old 11-09-2014, 01:15 PM    (permalink
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Atlanta has made 28 Draft picks since picking Julio Jones. If you think that trade is the reason the Falcons are struggling, you're just simple minded.
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Old 11-09-2014, 01:59 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Monomach View Post
Sooooooooo your argument is that the Falcons would have taken the same players the Browns took if they hadn't made the trade?

Atlanta traded a truckload of picks for a luxury position player and they still suck. That's a big, fat failure.
Soooo your argument is that they would have made the best possible picks available with hindsight with all of those? Keeping in mind that most of the picks the Browns made at the time, save for Weeden, were thought to be quality picks?

How was Julio a luxury pick? People throw that term around way too much. A top flight WR is a luxury pick? WTF?

The Julio Jones Trade is not the failure. Just about everything else they've done with that team is the failure. Pointing to the Julio Jones trade is a massive fallacy.
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Old 11-09-2014, 02:17 PM    (permalink
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The Falcons have used top 3 round picks on the likes of Peria Jerry, Peter Konz, Lamar Holmes and Akeem Dent in recent Drafts. Why should I think they would have used all those picks they gave up well? At least Julio is a good player.
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Atlanta has made 28 Draft picks since picking Julio Jones. If you think that trade is the reason the Falcons are struggling, you're just simple minded.
Anyone bashing the trade at this point is an idiot. No way do those picks amount to Jones. It is more likely that the players we end up with don't make an impact. Look at some of our premium (rounds 1-3 picks) and it becomes obvious that Jones was a resounding success.

Round 1-3 picks we have missed on

R1 09 DT Peria Jerry (talent and injuries)
R3 09 CB Chris Owens (talent)
R3 10 OL Mike Johnson (talent and injuries)
R3 11 LB Akeem Dent (talent)
R2 12 OL Peter Konz (talent)
R3 12 OL Lamar Holmes (talent)
R2 14 DL Rashede Hageman (effort)
R3 14 S Dez Southward (talent)

These players are all terrible and injuries aren't the cause for them being that bad, other than maybe Johnson. These aren't guys who are average... they are bad. And frankly Jake Matthews was a bad pick with our absolutely terrible defense. The good picks since then?

R2 09 SS William Moore
R1 10 LB Sean Weatherspoon
R3 10 DT Corey Peters
R1 11 WR Julio Jones
R1 13 CB Desmond Trufant
R2 13 CB Robert Alford

Furthermore, we haven't been good at hitting on late round picks. We have actually been terrible. We haven't found 1 quality starter past round 3. Toilolo is a second tight end, Hawley should be a backup center, and Biermann is putrid.

Also, Weatherspoon is dangerously close to being listed as an injury bust at this point. William Moore has only played in more than 12 games twice.

Bad drafting is the problem. Julio was the best thing TD has done since he drafted Matt Ryan.

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They would have a decent line right now but Hawley, Konz, and Baker all had season ending injuries....those 3 with matthews and blalock isnt a bad squad
That is a terrible squad, and you can add in Lamarr Holmes who is out as well. All of those guys are wretched.
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Old 11-09-2014, 04:18 PM    (permalink
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Julio is worth the picks, but can you say that Atlanta wouldn't be better with more talented players? One of their biggest problems is that they lack depth. They gave up three marquee picks and also two fourths. 4 players for one.
Look at BamaFalcons post to see why. Do you want an elite stud player or do you just want depth? You can build depth a variety of ways. But the facts of the Falcons draft history paint a different picture then the hindsight game people always want to use on forums. People thinking that you can judge the deal based off of their record is silly.
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Old 11-09-2014, 04:25 PM    (permalink
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They got a great player, and it was worth it, but I think they definitely could have helped their team more by doing something other than wide receiver.

I think they expected by adding more receiving weapons like that, to their already two big time threats, they would create a record setting offense that could air it out with anyone, but they just never got the trench or QB play to back it up.
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fwiw, i amz deunks ofs myt ass. ilo vez drinmoinz befotre i post. wha t a hreat ideas.z.
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Old 11-09-2014, 05:23 PM    (permalink
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They got a great player, and it was worth it, but I think they definitely could have helped their team more by doing something other than wide receiver.

I think they expected by adding more receiving weapons like that, to their already two big time threats, they would create a record setting offense that could air it out with anyone, but they just never got the trench or QB play to back it up.
Matt Ryan threw for ~8900 yards between 2011 and 2012.
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Old 11-10-2014, 05:02 AM    (permalink
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Matt Ryan is back to his big discrepancy in home/road splits.

2012 was a fluke based on a dog doo away game slate.

Season QB rating allowed of who ATL played @ in 2012
99.9
87.9
87.0
99.6
93.8
93.5
91.7
91.7
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