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Old 11-28-2011, 11:01 AM    (permalink
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Default BeerBaron's Week 12 Thoughts

Since tonight's game may actually be a good one seeing as how the Giants play up/down to their competition, I considered saving this until tomorrow.

But I had enough things I wanted to talk about even without it, so here we are again this week.

1.) Backup QBs are Important
I can't stress this one enough. For starters, I'll direct your attention back to something I wrote prior to the season here: http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=48309

(Certain sections highlighted for emphasis)

Quote:

The topics of ranking starting QBs and looking at QB competitions get beat to death around this time every year, but if you think about it, only a select few teams each season seem to get a full 16 starts out of their QB. And just those one or two starts missed here or there can make the difference between, say, earning a bye week or being a wild card team...or making the playoffs vs. not making them at all...

Criteria #1: If the team has an established starter, and that starter misses 1-4 games, could the backup go about .500 in those games?

Now, I think it's unrealistic to expect your backup to come in and win every game. It almost never happens and in most cases, your lucky if he does anything positive at all. I also picked a span of 1-4 games because for most teams, if their starter misses any more than that, their season is likely going to be lost. If the Packers were to lose Aaron Rodgers for longer than that, or the Saints were to lose Drew Brees, both of those teams would likely struggle for the rest of the season no matter how good their backups are. Also, I defined "established starter" as a QB who, barring injury or sudden extreme poor performance, would be his team's starter for all 16 games.
The league currently features two situations in which likely playoff teams are currently sporting their backup and even their 3rd string QB. Both the Bears and the Texans, owing mostly to easy schedules the rest of the way and solid-to-great supporting casts can still make the playoffs with backups at QB.

Like I said before the season, I think teams need to have a backup that they feel can go at least .500 in any starts he may have to make. One or two losses can completely change the season. For instance, last year, the Bears went 11-5 and were the #2 seed in the NFC earning a bye week. The Giants and Bucs were left out of the playoffs completely at 10-6...just a ONE GAME DIFFERENCE between the #2 seed and sitting at home in January.

So, with that all said, why don't teams have more respect for the backup QB position?

Ideally, this is a guy who will never see the field. But rarely is that the case unless you've got a guy named Favre or Manning. As I've pointed out several times, it's unrealistic to expect every backup QB to be the next Kurt Warner, or even Matt Cassel, but I don't think it's unrealistic to have a guy who can keep your team afloat.

So why do teams seem to constantly ignore the position before the season? In some cases, I understand why team went out to find a veteran backup, such as the Bears and Texans. Both had rookie 3rd stringers who likely weren't up to the task of becoming the new backup.

But for the Raiders, what is the excuse? They had all preseason to see Kyle Boller play and decided that he must have been good enough to be the backup QB then. Jason Campbell gets hurt, and then the team panics throwing quality draft picks out for a veteran. Yes, Kyle Boller sucks, but why didn't the team have a better backup plan before the season even started?

Similar arguments could be made for the Colts and Chiefs. Even someone as durable as Peyton Manning was bound to miss time eventually. But the team stuck with the completely unproven Curtis Painter as the backup...up until Peyton actually began to miss time. Then they suddenly panicked and overpaid Kerry Collins to bring him out of retirement for a game. Similarly, the Chiefs, with playoff aspirations, had no quarrel going with Tyler Palko as Matt Cassel's backup, but as soon as he struggled in his first start, they panicked and brought in Kyle Orton who will likely be starting sooner rather than later with no experience in the system. ("Knows the system" is typically overrated in my opinion and Todd Collins is a great example of that, but signing a guy to start for your team in the middle of season is one case where that guy better be familiar with the system.)

In all of these cases, I feel that the team could have done a better job filling the backup QB position. In my opinion, teams should look at the backup QB as a guy who is likely to see action. If they don't feel he can keep them afloat if the starter goes down, they should find someone else who they think can.

Now, you could very well be sitting there saying "BeerBaron, there aren't even enough quality QBs to fill 32 starter slots, much less backups!" And you may be correct. But here is a list of current backup QBs I like and who I would have offered mid-round picks to acquire if necessary:

- Billy Volek (was a free agent prior to this season)
- Seneca Wallace (would have offered a 5th, up to a 3rd if really desperate)
- Vince Young (was a free agent prior to this season)
- Matt Moore (was a free agent prior to this season)
- Bruce Gradkowski (was a free agent prior to this season)

And that's just ones I can think of offhand. And most, I could have signed as free agents. I'd trust any one of those guys to keep a team afloat in 1-4 starts if pressed into duty. Or at least I'd trust them more than Curtis Painter, Kyle Boller, Tyler Palko......

Finally, you may argue expense. None of those guys are on particularly large salaries. I'd gladly pay an extra million if it meant staying alive while your starting QB is out.

2.) What to make of the Texans
It just keeps getting worse while the team manages to keep on winning. Given the supporting cast, it's likely that any available QB could probably pilot the Texans to the playoffs still. The defense is smothering, Foster and the o-line are humming, and all you need to do is hock up a pass towards Andre every once in a while to keep the defense honest.

But any team who could draw the Texans in the first round of the playoffs would have to be salivating. Kellen Clemons or TJ Yates? In the playoffs? The Texans are doomed.

Looking at the veteran ranks doesn't turn up much. A case could be made for the Texans to try picking at the carcasses of Daunte Culpepper or Jeff Garcia. Hell, Jake Plummer isn't doing anything nowadays. Give him a call. I think he played in Kubiak's offense. There's also Favre which....well, suffice it to say we should all pray that doesn't happen.

PFT suggested something today which could be up the Texans' alley. If Kyle Orton could get his release in Denver by simply asking, Donovan McNabb should try the same thing. As bad as he's been these last two years, he's still probably a better option than rookie Yates or street FA Clemons.

This team should still make the playoffs, but anything beyond a one-and-done would come as an absolute shock to me.

3.) QBs I don't like update 3.0
-Tebow - Well, this is just getting sad. Granted, I had no real faith in the Chargers but that's a whole 'nother story. Playing games this close is akin to playing with fire and eventually, they're going to get burned.

I also like how the Tebow story has completely overshadowed Von Miller's impact on the team. He's playing out of his mind right now and, like I said last week, is a bigger reason for the team's success than Tebow. I didn't see Tebow making the tackle for a loss to knock the Chargers into worse FG range for their OT miss. I haven't seen Tebow rack up 4 sacks in their last 3 games, all wins.

But, no one cares about that. Even Football Night in America, when talking about the highlights of the game, started off saying "Tim Tebow beats the Chargers." Not the Broncos. Tim Tebow, alone and by himself, beat the San Diego Chargers. Apparently.

-Carson Palmer - I've gotten first hand looks at Palmer for the past several weeks now, and my opinion stays the same. He's making a few plays, but he was so close to pissing that Bears game away on several occasions. The Bears dropped several would-be interceptions and if not for throwing to the FB, who the Bears apparently could not or would not cover, Palmer's stay line would be even more mediocre. The Raiders got away with this one, but I can't see Palmer taking this team anywhere beyond a one-and-done int he playoffs.

-Blaine Gabbert - He's ******* terrible. Absolutely terrible. I'll admit to being a QB prospect elitist, but my dislike of Gabbert last year was shared by surprisingly many and for good reason. We're being proven right in this one. The guy has just awful accuracy and his pocket presence is one of the worst I've ever, ever seen. As soon as an 11th defender sets foot on the field, he panics. Bust bust bust. What's that you say, give him more time? He's just a rookie? No. Bust. The team may be required by draft law to give him more than one year, but I'm not. Bust.

4.) Bears Corner
It would have been nice to come away with that ugly win yesterday, but it's not the end of the world.

Caleb Hanie struggled badly early on, but by the 2nd half, played better than the stats would otherwise indicate. Mike Martz's playcalling in the first half didn't help matters. He got away from the rollouts and quicker passes that were working with Cutler, but got back to using them in the 2nd half where Hanie improved. Particularly egregious playcalling was evident on that late first half interception that was nearly returned for a TD. While Hanie should have known better than to throw it and deserves some blame, there was no reason to do anything but be conservative there. That play was basically a 6 point swing...it took a likely FG off the board for the Bears while handing a FG (and nearly a TD) to the Raiders.

The defense played lights out other than a couple of big plays by Marcel Reece of all people. They clamped down in the redzone despite being dealt a bad hand repeatedly by the offense struggling and turning the ball over.

This game could have been a lot worse than the final score turned out to be, and scarily, the Bears were in it right to the end.

Not a pretty game at all, and there is no such thing as a good loss, but hopefully we learned from it and can improve with a weak schedule coming up.

5.) Hot Seat Watch
- Norv Turner - He's done. I don't even know if he lasts the year at this point. He should make for a hell of an offensive coordinator free agent though.

- Andy Reid - I still maintain that he'll resign. If he doesn't, the Eagles should fire him. He's had a good run, but sometimes you have to take a step back before you can take two forward. The team may need to be blown up as well. It's sad because talent is there, but it's a dysfunctional mess.Take your chances with someone else, because Andy Reid with this group isn't going to win you a Superbowl.

- Bill Polian - I keep pleading with Indy to get rid of this clown. Rebuild with Luck! No one, not one GM or head coach in this league should ever be allowed to keep his job after a potentially winless season. This goes beyond Peyton's injury to a poorly built team. His system is flawed and does not build anything but regular season champions at best.

6.) End Suh's Season
I think it's the only message the league can send that he may actually receive. The fines he's been getting are nothing more than pocket change to the former #2 overall pick pre-rookie cap.

A game or two suspension might wake him up a little, but send the absolute strongest message possible and end his season. I guarantee he changes starting next year after that.

Additionally, no matter how long he's suspended, the Lions should still sit him during any appeal. If he appeals and is allowed to play this week, it's a travesty. To quote Mike Periera, "he's not dirty, he's filthy."

If the league wants it's efforts to protect the players to be taken seriously, they need to be protected from themselves. Suspending Suh for the year would send a message to absolutely everyone that this behavior will not be tolerated.

The league won't. But they should. If I were the commish (and everyone should be thankful that I am not,) the banhammer would be out in full force on this one.

That's all I've got for this week. There may be some other stuff but this is what I came up with offhand. If you want to ask me something else, feel free to do so in the thread. If I think of anything or something crazy happens in tonight's game, I'll update this later.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:02 AM    (permalink
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I do think they should suspend Suh, but the whole season might be a little harsh. Sure it would send a message, but it would pretty much destroy that team's playoff hopes.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:06 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Bulldogs View Post
I do think they should suspend Suh, but the whole season might be a little harsh. Sure it would send a message, but it would pretty much destroy that team's playoff hopes.
I was just reading this too after writing that:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...blame-for-suh/

And maybe that's what it takes. If you have to punish the organization to get them on board with Suh's behavior being unacceptable, so be it.

No amount of flags or fines is going to change him. It's going to take a double effort from the Lions and the league to do it. He's a great player with more talent than just about any DT ever....but he's going to hurt someone. Possibly intentionally.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:14 AM    (permalink
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I think the thing that really killed the Bears was the increased use in Marion Barber. There is no reason why Forte should only get two more carries than Barber. Barber played well yesterday, but he took so many carries away from Forte, which negates anything decent he did otherwise.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:15 AM    (permalink
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I think the thing that really killed the Bears was the increased use in Marion Barber. There is no reason why Forte should only get two more carries than Barber. Barber played well yesterday, but he took so many carries away from Forte, which negates anything decent he did otherwise.
The Raiders made it a point to keep everything inside, limiting Forte. I'd normally agree with you, but Barber had the hot hand running the ball yesterday.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:17 AM    (permalink
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Backup QB was one of the bigger needs for the Chiefs in the offseason.. something I thought they addressed with Ricky Stanzi, but he has barely been active so who the **** knows what they're doing.

We'll have a few backups next year when we draft Barkley in the first! What what!
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:25 AM    (permalink
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Great write-up as usual, BB. I'm very much on board with the whole "End Suh's season" thing. What he did was despicable and has no place in football or any other sport not named UFC. If Goodell and the league are serious about cleaning up the game and avoiding injuries they need to make an example of Suh. I don't care who he is or what it means to the team. Coaching is not only X's and O's, it's also educating players as to how to act when on the field and not to let their temper get the best of them. Clearly that doesn't mean much to Schwartz or the organization right now, so making them pay for their lack of educating their players seems like the right thing to do.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:31 AM    (permalink
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Blaine Gabbert sucks so ******* bad. **** my life.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:39 AM    (permalink
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Give me a ******* break. If the Lions weren't in direct competition with the Bears for the Wild Card, you wouldn't be spouting that horseshit about Suh being suspended for the season. He should be suspended for a game or two and fined, but all he ******* did was a light step on the guys arm. It's not like he curb stomped a guy like Haynesworth, Jesus.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:40 AM    (permalink
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Blaine Gabbert sucks so ******* bad. **** my life.
The Jags will need to draft about 3 of these in order for Gabbert's completion percentage to stay past 50 it seems:



The broader the sides, the better.

The league should also look into limiting pass rushes to one guy when playing Gabbert. Kind of like how in elementary school, the gym teacher would tell you to let the ******** kid get on base playing kickball.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:42 AM    (permalink
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Give me a ******* break. If the Lions weren't in direct competition with the Bears for the Wild Card, you wouldn't be spouting that horseshit about Suh being suspended for the season.
Yes I would. I'm all about the league being consistent in the enforcement of it's policies. If they're going to throw flags for any kind of helmet to helmet contact and throw flags for horsecollars when the only thing grabbed is the outside of the jersey, they better damn well suspend the hell out of someone who intentionally stomps on an opponent.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:44 AM    (permalink
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Yes I would. I'm all about the league being consistent in the enforcement of it's policies. If they're going to throw flags for any kind of helmet to helmet contact and throw flags for horsecollars when the only thing grabbed is the outside of the jersey, they better damn well suspend the hell out of someone who intentionally stomps on an opponent.
Those plays are both significantly more dangerous than Suh's stomp, which didn't even remotely hurt whats his face.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:46 AM    (permalink
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Those plays are both significantly more dangerous than Suh's stomp, which didn't even remotely hurt whats his face.
It was still stupid as all hell and if he doesn't change his ways soon, he eventually is going to hurt someone. The league knows this.

I'm expecting a 2 game suspension which Suh appeals, gets to play this week, and then the suspension is brought down to 1 game.

That's what I expect at least. A much stronger message should be sent.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:51 AM    (permalink
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It was still stupid as all hell and if he doesn't change his ways soon, he eventually is going to hurt someone. The league knows this.

I'm expecting a 2 game suspension which Suh appeals, gets to play this week, and then the suspension is brought down to 1 game.

That's what I expect at least. A much stronger message should be sent.
No, it shouldn't. He has had two legitimately ugly hits otherwise (both of which were in preseason) that should be seen as a pattern, and this is the first suspendable action he's done. So for a light stomp, of which he's already going to have to take anger management classes for, he should be suspended for 5 games (with no prior suspension history)? Haynesworth legitimately ****** up Andre Gurode's face, so his 5 game suspension was much more deserved here.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:52 AM    (permalink
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Suh hasn't been that bad. Its seriously been blown out of proportion. Its almost to the level of "TO being a distraction". He's had a couple bad plays of grabbing facemasks, and then threw a tantrum on Thanksgiving. Frankly, the posh thing right now is to rip on him for being ''dirty''. He'll sit his two games and then be fine. The coaches and front office will talk to him about his behavior and appearance to the media.
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Old 11-28-2011, 11:55 AM    (permalink
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You make him sound like a light offender when absolutely no one else has done as much stupid **** as him recently. In his 1.5 seasons, he's been fined and now ejected more than nearly anyone else has in the last decade. Haynesworth might be the only one even.

He's doing stupid **** that the league cannot tolerate if it wants to be taken seriously about player safety.

And they need to get the team on board with this behavior being unacceptable. Right now, the Lions don't seem to give a **** at best, and actually encourage it at worst wanting to be seen as "tough."

The league should do whatever it takes to stomp this kind of behavior out.

Pun fully intended.
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Old 11-28-2011, 12:01 PM    (permalink
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Do you think Brady Quinn = Blaine Gabbert is an apt comparison? I didn't get to see either play that much but everything I read seems to sound the same. Poor presence, inaccurate, struggles to even manage a game.
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Old 11-28-2011, 12:07 PM    (permalink
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Do you think Brady Quinn = Blaine Gabbert is an apt comparison? I didn't get to see either play that much but everything I read seems to sound the same. Poor presence, inaccurate, struggles to even manage a game.
I don't know that I'd consider them alike physically or anything like that, but they're definitely similar in that they practically lose bowel control in the pocket and make throws that most high schoolers wouldn't attempt.

At least guys like David Carr and Trent Edwards had the excuse that they got their brains scrambled behind poor o-lines which led to them having terrible pocket presence. Gabbert has no excuse. And watching him take a snap from under center...it's like watching someone handle a live bomb.

Gabbert really puts the theory that height and a good arm are all you need to be a top QB prospect to the test. Footwork, mechanics, pocket presence, accuracy and common sense be damned.
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Old 11-28-2011, 12:07 PM    (permalink
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It pains me to say it, but he's seriously been victimized by the media. Let's list his horrible plays:

1. Jake Delhomme-throw down, deserved fine
2. Andy Dalton-blatantly tackled, deserved fine
3. Jay Cutler-only a shove, complete bull**** to be fined
4. The Thanksgiving day meltdown

2 years worth. Not exactly worth a huge suspension. The dude is fricken huge and ridiculously strong. He's stronger than his 32 reps at the combine. He lives in the backfield and gets held every game/play.
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Old 11-28-2011, 12:10 PM    (permalink
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It pains me to say it, but he's seriously been victimized by the media. Let's list his horrible plays:

1. Jake Delhomme-throw down, deserved fine
2. Andy Dalton-blatantly tackled, deserved fine
3. Jay Cutler-only a shove, complete bull**** to be fined
4. The Thanksgiving day meltdown

2 years worth. Not exactly worth a huge suspension. The dude is fricken huge and ridiculously strong. He's stronger than his 32 reps at the combine. He lives in the backfield and gets held every game/play.
That describes every great defender. Yet very few ever lose control and stomp people.

And while that list may seem small when looked at independent, it's still more relative to any other defensive player in the past decade other than perhaps Haynesworth.

Finally, the Thanksgiving play alone is bad, but if that were his only offense, he probably would have been ejected and fined. But given his history (again, think relatively) and the fact that he was basically on a non-official probation because of it, this one is going to get a lot more attention than it otherwise would.
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Old 11-28-2011, 12:11 PM    (permalink
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You make him sound like a light offender when absolutely no one else has done as much stupid **** as him recently. In his 1.5 seasons, he's been fined and now ejected more than nearly anyone else has in the last decade. Haynesworth might be the only one even.
He's been ejected one time.
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Old 11-28-2011, 12:16 PM    (permalink
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Do you think Brady Quinn = Blaine Gabbert is an apt comparison? I didn't get to see either play that much but everything I read seems to sound the same. Poor presence, inaccurate, struggles to even manage a game.
Weird cross between Joey Harrington and David Carr.
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Old 11-28-2011, 12:16 PM    (permalink
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He's been ejected one time.
And who else has been recently? Goldson threw a punch a couple weeks ago. Seymour threw a punch last year.

And those guys haven't ripped the heads off of QBs and haven't met with the commissioner.

Who has been worse at any point in the last decade? No one. Maybe Rodney Harrison in the early part. Maybe Haynesworth because his worst incident was particularly bad.

Suh is easily the dirtiest player going right now relative to the rest of the league and if the NFL wants to be consistent in it's efforts at player safety, they need to make an example of him.
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Old 11-28-2011, 12:21 PM    (permalink
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Weird cross between Joey Harrington and David Carr.
Joey Harrington....cringe worthy.

I remember this brief time when him, Kevin Jones, Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams, and Ernie Sims, Shaun Cody, Teddy Lehman, Daniel Bullocks and some others were all supposed to be the ****.

They just ended up being really ******.
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Old 11-28-2011, 12:22 PM    (permalink
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6.) End Suh's Season
I think it's the only message the league can send that he may actually receive. The fines he's been getting are nothing more than pocket change to the former #2 overall pick pre-rookie cap.

A game or two suspension might wake him up a little, but send the absolute strongest message possible and end his season. I guarantee he changes starting next year after that.

Additionally, no matter how long he's suspended, the Lions should still sit him during any appeal. If he appeals and is allowed to play this week, it's a travesty. To quote Mike Periera, "he's not dirty, he's filthy."

If the league wants it's efforts to protect the players to be taken seriously, they need to be protected from themselves. Suspending Suh for the year would send a message to absolutely everyone that this behavior will not be tolerated.

The league won't. But they should. If I were the commish (and everyone should be thankful that I am not,) the banhammer would be out in full force on this one.

That's all I've got for this week. There may be some other stuff but this is what I came up with offhand. If you want to ask me something else, feel free to do so in the thread. If I think of anything or something crazy happens in tonight's game, I'll update this later.
LOL your kidding right? your trying to controversial?
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