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Old 12-02-2011, 01:55 PM    (permalink
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Yea, i don't see the draft having this big shift where other positions fill up the top 10. The reason those other positions get paid that money is because they ARE more highly valued. I think people are using reverse logic here.
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Old 12-02-2011, 02:05 PM    (permalink
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The way that the draft is set up now with the new CBA it'd be hard to pass on a big talent, regardless of position, because money ISN'T a huge factor. Missing on a top 10 pick isn't the financial burden it once was, and that means that maybe a team with a big need a G could look his way in the top 10.
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Old 12-02-2011, 02:27 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by phlysac View Post
An offensive guard has only been drafted in the top-20 nine times the past twenty drafts. You have to go back to 1988 to see one go in the top-10, where both the Jets (Dave Cadigan - 8th overall) and Giants (Eric Moore - 10th overall) made the plunge.


17th - Mike Iupati - 2010
15th - Branden Albert - 2008
16th - Shawn Andrews - 2004
17th - Steve Hutchinson - 2001
18th - Matt Stichcomb - 1999
10th - Chris Naeole - 1997
14th - Ruben Brown - 1995
16th - Aaron Taylor - 1994
19th - Lester Holmes - 1993
13th - Eugene Chung - 1991
only 9 times? that seems pretty solid for interior lineman in the top 20

also you count branden albert even though he was drafted as a LT day but you dont count leonard davis and or robert gallery even though they ended up being monster guards.
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Old 12-02-2011, 02:39 PM    (permalink
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I thought Reiff was flying up draft boards and was pretty much #2 guy. I like DeCastro but there's no way he beats out Reiff and Martin. Maybe just Martin.
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Old 12-02-2011, 02:44 PM    (permalink
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Don't the Browns have two first rounders? I wouldn't be surprised if they drafted him with one of them.
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Old 12-02-2011, 03:25 PM    (permalink
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Don't the Browns have two first rounders? I wouldn't be surprised if they drafted him with one of them.
Unless they do some jockeying then i would say no. The Browns first is too high to take him and he'll be gone by the time the Atlanta first comes around.
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Old 12-02-2011, 03:29 PM    (permalink
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it's not about money that guards won't go that high. it's about positional value. the higher picks are used on players that are harder to find. it's easier to find a great guard in the middle of the draft than it is to find a quality tackle or cornerback or quarterback, etc.

i think decastro is the 2nd best OL in this draft (assuming Kalil declares) but he won't be hte 2nd one taken IMO. I think at least one or two of Reiff, Adams, and Martin get taken before him b/c franchise left tackles are a lot tougher to find outside of the first round than pro bowl OGs.
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Old 12-02-2011, 03:38 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by phlysac View Post
An offensive guard has only been drafted in the top-20 nine times the past twenty drafts. You have to go back to 1988 to see one go in the top-10, where both the Jets (Dave Cadigan - 8th overall) and Giants (Eric Moore - 10th overall) made the plunge.


17th - Mike Iupati - 2010
15th - Branden Albert - 2008
16th - Shawn Andrews - 2004
17th - Steve Hutchinson - 2001
18th - Matt Stichcomb - 1999
10th - Chris Naeole - 1997
14th - Ruben Brown - 1995
16th - Aaron Taylor - 1994
19th - Lester Holmes - 1993
13th - Eugene Chung - 1991
Half of those guys were tackles, or were drafted to play tackle.

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The Chiefs OL in the 2000s was one of the best I've ever seen and I seriously took it for granted. When Roaf retired I couldn't fathom how our then starting LT gave up a sack. Man, I'm not sure we'll see a line that good again.

Roaf - Waters - Wiegmann - Shields - Tait

fapfapfap. :(
So glad that unit is gone. Holy crap, were they good.
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Old 12-02-2011, 03:42 PM    (permalink
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only 9 times? that seems pretty solid for interior lineman in the top 20

also you count branden albert even though he was drafted as a LT day but you dont count leonard davis and or robert gallery even though they ended up being monster guards.
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Half of those guys were tackles, or were drafted to play tackle.
I only listed the players that played GUARD in college. If you consider that Albert and others were given more value because they were drafted to play OT it lessens the number of college Guards drafted in the top-20.

College OT's like Gallery and Davis, who failed at OT in the NFL and were kicked inside, are irrelevent to the discussion of drafting college guards.
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Old 12-02-2011, 03:45 PM    (permalink
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I thought Reiff was flying up draft boards and was pretty much #2 guy. I like DeCastro but there's no way he beats out Reiff and Martin. Maybe just Martin.
I'd feel safer with DeCastro at LT than Martin. Maybe he was playing with some undisclosed injury this year, but he's been really poor in pass protection. Slow heavy feet.
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Old 12-02-2011, 03:51 PM    (permalink
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I thought Reiff was flying up draft boards and was pretty much #2 guy. I like DeCastro but there's no way he beats out Reiff and Martin. Maybe just Martin.
Reiff is up because Martin is down, he hasn't done anything of note or had a break out season, he is just consistent.

Mike Adams has been on fire and is shooting up draft boards. I think I said it earlier, I have them 2a and 2b neck and neck with each other but I do give Adams the edge as he is both worthy of a top pick and a LT while Reiff is a RT given two good talents, positional value will still play a slight role

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The way that the draft is set up now with the new CBA it'd be hard to pass on a big talent, regardless of position, because money ISN'T a huge factor. Missing on a top 10 pick isn't the financial burden it once was, and that means that maybe a team with a big need a G could look his way in the top 10.
Exactly, BPA is more likely to factor in if it fills a need as well. I could still see positions like RB falling because top RB can still be found in later rounds but for the most part a top 10 talent that isn't a position of "value" will not fall.
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Old 12-02-2011, 03:55 PM    (permalink
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I only listed the players that played GUARD in college. If you consider that Albert and others were given more value because they were drafted to play OT it lessens the number of college Guards drafted in the top-20.

College OT's like Gallery and Davis, who failed at OT in the NFL and were kicked inside, are irrelevent to the discussion of drafting college guards.
thats all well and good but what does that have to do with anything? just because historically guards arent premium picks doesnt mean you dont take one when you find one

a lot of guards in the NFL played tackle in college, and a lot of tackles that cant cut it at tackle in the NFL play guard but a great player on the offensive line is a great player on the offensive line and imo thats where decastro falls. He'll help out any interior oline
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Old 12-03-2011, 03:02 AM    (permalink
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The Chiefs OL in the 2000s was one of the best I've ever seen and I seriously took it for granted. When Roaf retired I couldn't fathom how our then starting LT gave up a sack. Man, I'm not sure we'll see a line that good again.

Roaf - Waters - Wiegmann - Shields - Tait

fapfapfap. :(
Love that OL....Roaf was probably my favorite of those LT's after Pace too...I don't know well enough, but isn't Albert a pretty worthy replacement? Not HOF good, but pretty damn good.
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Old 12-03-2011, 04:55 AM    (permalink
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Take DeCastro in the first...and I'll be happy to take a better guard in Zeitler in the second. See who has the better careers.
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Old 12-03-2011, 09:41 AM    (permalink
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Take DeCastro in the first...and I'll be happy to take a better guard in Zeitler in the second. See who has the better careers.
Like how you think that Zebrie Sanders is better than Mike Adams?
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Old 12-03-2011, 09:50 AM    (permalink
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I'm just waiting for the first report from a team thinking they can play him at RT. Happens every year.
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Old 12-03-2011, 01:01 PM    (permalink
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The draft process didn't change priorities when the rookie salaries skyrocketed, primary position players were in great demand prior to the huge rookie salary era and they will be in great demand now that a rookie salary cap is in place. People are under the impression that huge rookie salaries changed how the draft functioned but the truth is, the priorities before the huge rookie salaries really didn't change once rookies started making huge amounts of money, for the simple reason that the model to build a winning team never changed a whole lot from era to era.
Can a player like DeCastros go higher than say 15, I'd say yes, if he is rated that high as a prospect, for talent rankings will always come into play after the talented guys who play primary positions have been chosen, so it will depend on just how many top 15 types are in this year's draft. I do agree that the rookie salary cap at least makes it possible to draft an OG higher without destroying your team's cap structure.
You speak like an insider that talks to people making these decisions. Tyson Jackson is a pure example of a team not wanting to pay a player at another position a ton of money, yes of course "look how that went" but that's the point, they basically ignored the fact that he was hardly the BPA.

That's also the reason we haven't seen many trades in the top-10, recent ones that come to mind are the Jets moving up for Sanchez which made plenty of sense considering what they gave up, the Pats/Saints swapping 7th/10th picks for Ellis/Mayo which wasn't a huge financial difference for either, and Jacksonville moving up for Derrick Harvey which was and still is a horrible move.
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Old 12-03-2011, 01:18 PM    (permalink
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Like how you think that Zebrie Sanders is better than Mike Adams?
Yep. That's exactly what I think. :p
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Old 12-03-2011, 01:49 PM    (permalink
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I'm just waiting for the first report from a team thinking they can play him at RT. Happens every year.
I think he can have a major impact at Guard. If he were just a straight up blocker i'd say no but the guy is as good a pulling guard as i've seen going back to the John Hannah days.

I think after you get by the blue chippers like Luck, Barkely, Kalil, Claiborne and Blackmon then it shouldnt shock anyone to see DeCastro's name called.
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Old 12-04-2011, 12:08 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by phlysac View Post
I only listed the players that played GUARD in college. If you consider that Albert and others were given more value because they were drafted to play OT it lessens the number of college Guards drafted in the top-20.

College OT's like Gallery and Davis, who failed at OT in the NFL and were kicked inside, are irrelevent to the discussion of drafting college guards.
I don't recall Stinchcomb playing guard until the pros, and that wasn't until he had flopped at tackle. So...
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Old 12-04-2011, 01:32 PM    (permalink
Iamcanadian
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You speak like an insider that talks to people making these decisions. Tyson Jackson is a pure example of a team not wanting to pay a player at another position a ton of money, yes of course "look how that went" but that's the point, they basically ignored the fact that he was hardly the BPA.

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I have over 55 years of being a draftnik and that experience has given me some insights into how the draft and money interrelate.
Nobody outside of team officals, knows why Tyson Jackson was picked, I assume it was because the team thought he was a very solid prospect and have never seen anywhere that money played any part in the decision.
That's also the reason we haven't seen many trades in the top-10, recent ones that come to mind are the Jets moving up for Sanchez which made plenty of sense considering what they gave up, the Pats/Saints swapping 7th/10th picks for Ellis/Mayo which wasn't a huge financial difference for either, and Jacksonville moving up for Derrick Harvey which was and still is a horrible move.

If you go back over the decade prior to the high priced rookie salaries, you will find that there were between 2 and 3 trades a decade out of the top 10 picks which is right in line with the number of trades we saw during the high priced rookie salaries, confirming that money had little to do with how teams traded or drafted then or now.
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Old 12-05-2011, 01:20 AM    (permalink
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I think possibly the fact that this draft could potentially contain three elite guards (DeCastro, Osemele, and Glenn) probably hurts the odds of any one of them going particularly high.
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Old 12-05-2011, 02:13 AM    (permalink
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I think he can have a major impact at Guard. If he were just a straight up blocker i'd say no but the guy is as good a pulling guard as i've seen going back to the John Hannah days.

I think after you get by the blue chippers like Luck, Barkely, Kalil, Claiborne and Blackmon then it shouldnt shock anyone to see DeCastro's name called.
Just wondering if you ever saw John Hannah play, I did in college and as a pro and he was the most dominating inside player I ever saw. He consistently, in college, drove DT's back 5 or 6 steps and I never saw any college DT get the best of him. As a pro, most DT's were completely dominated by him although not quite as obvious as in college.
I closely watched DeCastro's play against Oregon and I must have missed his total dominance of the Oregon DT's, it looked more like he barely held his own.
I'm not saying he isn't a great prospect for an OG but I just don't see the Hannah comparison at all. I guess we'll know on draft day just how much the pro scouts and GM' think of him as a prospect, but I don't expect to hear his name called before the 11-20 group.
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Old 12-05-2011, 02:23 AM    (permalink
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We know why Tyson Jackson went 3rd overall.

Pioli started to scout players for the Patriots before he was hired as the Chiefs GM. He was hired late in the process and didn't trust any of the current scouts working for the Chiefs. He took the prospect he was the most familiar with and that was Tyson. The next day he fired the entire scouting department and hired his own team.

Was Tyson Jackson a reach? Abso-*******-lutely. Is the above excuse a good enough one to give Pioli a pass? No, it isn't. Do I understand WHY Tyson was picked where he was? Sure.. I don't agree with it but I get it.

Pioli tried to move back but was unable to. I would have preferred he drafted BJ Raji or something, but eh. Whatever. His last two drafts have been pretty damn good.
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Old 12-05-2011, 10:31 AM    (permalink
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I think DeCastro is a better OG prospect than Kalil is an OT prospect. I see DeCastro as someone who could very well be the best OG in the league in a few years. Kalil has the potential to be a very good LT in the NFL. This is where positional value comes into play.

It is harder to find a serviceable LT than a serviceable OG. Playing LT requires so much more than OG. There is a reason why so many former OTs become OGs. Logan Mankins and Robert Gallery are two former OTs who have become very good OGs. Seldom, if ever, does it happen the other way round.

That is why Kalil will and should go higher than DeCastro. However I would not be shocked to see DeCastro go top 15, possibly top 10.
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