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Old 12-12-2011, 03:59 AM    (permalink
Iamcanadian
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Originally Posted by PatrickWillis View Post
You would take a Hakeem Nicks in the 8-15 area? Lol.
Your comparing apples an oranges. Blackmon is a prospect, Nix is a proven commodity. Nix was drafted #29 in round 1 and now he is worth a lot more.
Blackmon will be drafted a lot higher than #29 and I think the 8-15 range is about right although he could go higher to a team desperate for a WR but I don't think he is worth it.
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Old 12-12-2011, 04:01 PM    (permalink
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It's interesting, of the various comparisons to Blackmon people are trotting out in this thread (T.O., Roddy White, Nicks, etc.), I personally wouldn't take any of those guys in the top 5 either.
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Old 12-12-2011, 04:20 PM    (permalink
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If Blackmon is taken top 5, the top tier talent in the 2012 draft IMO is weak.
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Old 12-16-2011, 12:46 AM    (permalink
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What about what teams need? IF there is someone who needs a wide receiver in the top 15, he is arguably the best talent, depending on what that team wants. You all want to debate if he deserves to go or not, but it comes down to what a team needs, and not necessarily how elite a player is. And to the guy who started this thread, Willis, keep up the "my ideas are better than yours" mentality, I sure hope you don't have that in the real world.
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Old 12-16-2011, 01:56 AM    (permalink
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What about what teams need? IF there is someone who needs a wide receiver in the top 15, he is arguably the best talent, depending on what that team wants.
Personally, I believe it never benefits a team to reach for a "need" rather than taking the best player available, or another means to maximize the value of their picks.

So if I don't have a player in the top 15, I would never suggest a team take that player in the top 15 regardless of how much they "need" at that position.

If nothing else, wide receiver is one of the least critical positions in terms of needs-based drafting. Generally a WR is the last piece of a successful team, not the first, so there's really no reason to take one high unless he's legitimately a rare prospect.
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Old 12-16-2011, 01:42 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by PossibleCabbage View Post
Personally, I believe it never benefits a team to reach for a "need" rather than taking the best player available, or another means to maximize the value of their picks.

So if I don't have a player in the top 15, I would never suggest a team take that player in the top 15 regardless of how much they "need" at that position.

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Generally when scouts and GM's say they will take the BPA, they are talking about 5-10 players who are in a tier of relatively equal talent, they aren't talking about a specific player. Usually, they can find in that tier of players, a position of need on their team, so quite often the best player available is a need pick.
People sometimes get this mixed up thinking drafting for need means only taking a player, a few spots ahead of where they would go anyway. If I have say the 10 th pick in the draft, the tier I am drafting from may contain anywhere from 5 to 10 players so there are no GM's who will skip down 5 to 10 bodies just to draft for need, they will reach into the tier and select a need/BPA position from that group. To reach for a different player, in a different tier just for need, can mean you are taking the 21st talent in the draft rather than a top 10 talent. No scout or GM will ever do that.

If nothing else, wide receiver is one of the least critical positions in terms of needs-based drafting. Generally a WR is the last piece of a successful team, not the first, so there's really no reason to take one high unless he's legitimately a rare prospect.
While I do agree that the WR position is a secondary position on a football team and should not be drafted ahead of a primary position player, if both are of equal talent.
I wouldn't necessarily agree that the WR position is the last piece that you put into play. If I'm drafting #15 and the tier of prospects who are of equal talent, has only 1 player left who is a WR, I draft him rather than reach down for a far lower ranked talent at another position.
I would even consider drafting a WR from the same tier even if there were 4 or 5 prospects still available from that tier, if I had a young QB in need of some skilled help at that position. I would say, he doesn't have to be a rare prospect unless you are drafting in the top 5. Sometimes, the situation can change priorities.
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Old 12-17-2011, 09:45 PM    (permalink
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Nicks is a freak. Not sure Blackmon becomes as good as him

IMO the guy is a bit overrated. Will still be a good player. But I just don't see elite separation when I watch him. No one else feels he's a bit similar to Michael Crabtree?

Definite step down from Green/Jones last year
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Old 12-18-2011, 11:29 AM    (permalink
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Nicks is a freak. Not sure Blackmon becomes as good as him

IMO the guy is a bit overrated. Will still be a good player. But I just don't see elite separation when I watch him. No one else feels he's a bit similar to Michael Crabtree?

Definite step down from Green/Jones last year
I think Blackmon is more explosive than Crabtree and I have a HUGE Crabtree fan as a prospect being that I went to TTU a few years before he got there. And, while Green is definitely above Blackmon as a prospect, I don't know if I would rank Jones above him. They are pretty comparable IMO.
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Old 12-18-2011, 01:17 PM    (permalink
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I think that Blackmon is a perfect example of a player whose stock will be determined by what he runs. If he runs in the low 4.4's then all of a sudden he will become a top 5 commodity. If he runs a 4.58 then he falls like a wet dishrag.
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Old 12-18-2011, 01:49 PM    (permalink
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Blackmons a top 10 prospect in this draft no matter how he tests IMO, and will be the 1st WR off the board as well. There are a decent amount of teams that could use a WR like him to upgrade the offense.
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Old 12-18-2011, 02:34 PM    (permalink
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Blackmons a top 10 prospect in this draft no matter how he tests IMO, and will be the 1st WR off the board as well. There are a decent amount of teams that could use a WR like him to upgrade the offense.
Jacksonville Jaguars instantly comes to mind.

Although, I don't know who will get him the ball... MJD?
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Old 12-18-2011, 07:42 PM    (permalink
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It's interesting, of the various comparisons to Blackmon people are trotting out in this thread (T.O., Roddy White, Nicks, etc.), I personally wouldn't take any of those guys in the top 5 either.
I'm sorry was this a joke? You wouldn't take those WR's in the top 5 of drafts they were in? May I ask why?
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Old 12-18-2011, 07:49 PM    (permalink
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I'm sorry was this a joke? You wouldn't take those WR's in the top 5 of drafts they were in? May I ask why?
I think he would take them in the first round, but just not among the top 5 picks.

I mean if you knew T.O. was going to be T.O., in hindsight yeah you'd take him top 5.

But none of these guys had anything about their game that would rate them elite WR prospects coming out in their draft years.
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Old 12-19-2011, 08:03 PM    (permalink
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I'm young.. But is Blackmon similiar to the Jags great WR Jimmy Smith (I think that was his name)

I think Smith wasn't the biggest or smallest.. And wasn't ever considered blazing fast
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Old 12-20-2011, 12:05 PM    (permalink
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I'm young.. But is Blackmon similiar to the Jags great WR Jimmy Smith (I think that was his name)

I think Smith wasn't the biggest or smallest.. And wasn't ever considered blazing fast
Jimmy Smith was one of the fastest players in the NFL in his prime. His entire game was built on speed. Every route stem looked like he was setting up a 9 route.
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Old 12-20-2011, 12:30 PM    (permalink
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Jimmy Smith was one of the fastest players in the NFL in his prime. His entire game was built on speed. Every route stem looked like he was setting up a 9 route.

Yeah I was just thinking that Jimmy Smith was the most physically talented WR on the Cowboys roster when he was drafted before they won their first SB with the Triplets, but his coke problem ended his career in big D.
Smith ran like a 4.3 at close to 6'2 and 210#.

He put together a borderline HOF career in Jacksonville.

I just don't think Blackmon is the same type of pure athlete that Jimmy Smith was, but I do believe Blackmon looks to have at this stage better technical WR skills.
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Old 12-20-2011, 12:48 PM    (permalink
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Yeah I was just thinking that Jimmy Smith was the most physically talented WR on the Cowboys roster when he was drafted before they won their first SB with the Triplets, but his coke problem ended his career in big D.
Smith ran like a 4.3 at close to 6'2 and 210#.

He put together a borderline HOF career in Jacksonville.

I just don't think Blackmon is the same type of pure athlete that Jimmy Smith was, but I do believe Blackmon looks to have at this stage better technical WR skills.
I don't think he started ******* around with coke until he made it big-time in Jacksonville. In Dallas, he missed his rookie year with a broken leg and his second year with an appendectomy that almost killed him. He had a fallout with Jerruh (who didn't want to pay him for that season because it was a non-football related injury), bounced around a few teams, and eventually made it on to the Jags' expansion roster.

The closest comparison to Jimmy Smith right now is his namesake on the Ravens - Torrey Smith. Torrey can be that kind of player if he keeps working on the "craft" of being a WR. Alas, a lot of fans now only remember the end-of-Brunell-era/Leftwich-era Smith. Crazy how high his YPC stayed even when he had lost most of his speed.

Also, I think it needs to be appreciated how ******* good Tom Coughlin is at finding and developing wide receivers. Smith, McCardell (who was also found off the scrap heap and was damn good in his own right), Nicks, Steve Smith, Cruz, even Plaxico was much better in NY than he ever was in Pittsburgh (maybe not statistically, but in terms of consistency and RZ effectiveness, he got much better in NY). Giants fans knock Coughlin's incredibly complex system, but dude knows how to make good WRs.

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Old 12-31-2011, 06:02 PM    (permalink
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Is Nicks even the best WR on his own team? How about Victor Cruz as a comp for Blackmon? Cruz is a beast physically and has awesome route fakes, incredible after catch ability, but hands aren't ways the best.

How about James Jones or Pierre Garcon?
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Old 12-31-2011, 06:28 PM    (permalink
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I'm sorry was this a joke? You wouldn't take those WR's in the top 5 of drafts they were in? May I ask why?
Well, with perfect hindsight:

T.O. doesn't get in the top 5 because he's a locker room cancer, no matter how good he is.

White and Nicks don't go in the top 5 because, while they're good players, they're not good enough to merit top 5 picks... since very few Wide Receivers merit this in my estimation due to their minimal impact on football games based on how rarely they touch the ball (Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald? Yeah... pretty much every other WR in the NFL? No.)
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Old 12-31-2011, 06:33 PM    (permalink
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I'm young.. But is Blackmon similiar to the Jags great WR Jimmy Smith (I think that was his name)

I think Smith wasn't the biggest or smallest.. And wasn't ever considered blazing fast
The hell are you talking about

Mccardell was never fast, 4.7 guy. But ran incredible routes so he got open often.
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Old 12-31-2011, 06:52 PM    (permalink
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There is no ******* way you don't draft a Hakeem Nicks or Roddy White in the Top 5 if you know that's what they're going to turn into. Both of those guys are elite WR's in the NFL. Anyone who says otherwise is just ******* dumb.
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Old 12-31-2011, 06:58 PM    (permalink
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There is no ******* way you don't draft a Hakeem Nicks or Roddy White in the Top 5 if you know that's what they're going to turn into. Both of those guys are elite WR's in the NFL. Anyone who says otherwise is just ******* dumb.
I don't think "elite WRs" are worth top 5 picks, as a rule.

Only the very, very special WR prospects should be taken that high, IMO.

It's a positional value thing. The same way others will say "don't take a CB #1" or "don't take a safety in the top 5" unless he's an extremely rare prospect, I say "don't take a WR in the top 5 unless he's an extremely rare prospect." The "eliteness" (and "elite" is a pretty meaningless word by now) of White and Nicks just doesn't merit a top 5 pick for me, maybe if they take it to another level and become first ballot hall of famers, but thus far: no.

So no, I would not take Nicks or Roddy White (or Wes Welker, or Steve Smith, or Mike Wallace, or Brandon Marshall, or Greg Jennings, or Vincent Jackson, or Dwayne Bowe, or A.J. Green, et cetera ad nauseum) in the top 5 even if I knew what sort of player they would become.
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Old 12-31-2011, 07:10 PM    (permalink
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I don't think "elite WRs" are worth top 5 picks, as a rule.

Only the very, very special WR prospects should be taken that high, IMO.

It's a positional value thing. The same way others will say "don't take a CB #1" or "don't take a safety in the top 5" unless he's an extremely rare prospect, I say "don't take a WR in the top 5 unless he's an extremely rare prospect." The "eliteness" (and "elite" is a pretty meaningless word by now) of White and Nicks just doesn't merit a top 5 pick for me, maybe if they take it to another level and become first ballot hall of famers, but thus far: no.

So no, I would not take Nicks or Roddy White (or Wes Welker, or Steve Smith, or Mike Wallace, or Brandon Marshall, or Greg Jennings, or Vincent Jackson, or Dwayne Bowe, or A.J. Green, et cetera ad nauseum) in the top 5 even if I knew what sort of player they would become.
Then I absolutely pray you are never left in charge of an NFL franchise. You draft elite players, period. You can ***** and whine about position value all you want, but while you're reaching for second round LT's or fringe first round QBs, I'll keep drafting the elite players at those meaningless positions and eventually, the talent will match up with the needs. It's why the Steelers, Ravens, and Patriots are consistently good; they draft for talent, not for position.
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Old 12-31-2011, 07:23 PM    (permalink
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Then I absolutely pray you are never left in charge of an NFL franchise. You draft elite players, period. You can ***** and whine about position value all you want, but while you're reaching for second round LT's or fringe first round QBs, I'll keep drafting the elite players at those meaningless positions and eventually, the talent will match up with the needs. It's why the Steelers, Ravens, and Patriots are consistently good; they draft for talent, not for position.
Believe me, I'm as hardline as BPA as they come, but "Best" is evaluated in terms of "how much does this player improve my football team" and since WRs rarely directly influence more than a dozen or so plays in a game, their ability to make an impact is significantly less than many other positions. Given prospects of equal grade, I would take virtually all positions above WRs because WRs matter on fewer plays than quarterbacks, pass rushers, defensive tackles, offensive tackles, etc. "Best" isn't quantified as relative to objective rankings, best is simply evaluated on "who helps you most" and I sincerely believe that any team bad enough to be picking in the top 5 can be easily helped more by a non-WR position than by all but the most freakish of WR prospects (but honestly, Calvin Johnson didn't turn around Detroit by himself, it took Stafford and Suh too.)

A WR has to actually be graded above a player at a different position (on a horizontal draft board) before I'd take the WR over the other guy.

Plus it's not as though you need to spend high picks on receivers to have an exceptional receiving corps. Green Bay trots out three second round picks, a third round pick, and a seventh round pick and are widely touted as "the best receiver group in the league."

All that being said, there are very few drafts that, either in advance or in retrospect I would consider a wide receiver to be among the five best prospects. Taking a WR in the top 5 is very much a "reaching for a position" thing IMO.

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Old 12-31-2011, 10:13 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't consider White, elite. He leads the league in drops. Of course, he gets a ton of targets. Still, that's just too much.
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