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Old 02-25-2012, 09:32 AM    (permalink
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Don't think for a minute that Shanny wouldn't sign Manning AND draft RGIII.

I hear the possible trade offers from Cleveland in this thread to the Rams for their #2,(#4 and #22 picks), and I laugh. The Skins are possibly prepared to give up four picks for the #2 spot, including their #1 pick in 2013, and either Laron Landry or D Hall in a sign and trade.

IMO I don't think the #4 and #22 are going to get it done for the Browns.

Allegedly Shanny believes FLynn is overrated and not worth $50-60 mil contract, so I doubt he's a target in FA.

If the SKins strike out with either Peyton or RGIII, I believe they attempt to grab Tannehill later in the first, or go stop gap with a FA and wait until the 2013 draft to find their guy.
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Old 02-25-2012, 10:46 AM    (permalink
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I think there are 2 major factors that have to play out before determining how this all goes down:

1. I think Kalil has really emerged as a strong #3 (along with the 2 QBs). The question becomes whether a truly elite guy emerges as the #4. I think the main candidates are Claiborne, Blackmon and possibly Reiff. Cleveland would have a lot more leverage if one of those 3 guys separates from the pack.

If St. Louis views Kalil as elite and aren't in love with any of the options at 4, they will justifiably ask for a huge bounty to move down. If a guy like Blackmon runs a great 40 and separates from the pack at WR or Reiff tests great and closes the gap with Kalil, it will be a lot easier for St. Louis to trade down. Plus, that 4 will hold more value than the 6 in trade down scenarios (as of now, I'm not sure there's a huge difference between 4 and 6 as far as the Rams are concerned).

2. The QB FA situation has to play out. If Manning ends up anywhere other than Miami or Washington, St. Louis has to be ecstatic. That will likely lead to 2 teams being pretty desperate to move up for a QB. It would also really help the Rams if Tannehill's stock doesn't rise too much. If he's not viewed as a realistic top 8 option as the draft nears, more leverage for STL with 2 out of 3 of Miami, Wash, CLE coveting RG3.
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Old 02-25-2012, 11:44 AM    (permalink
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Don't think for a minute that Shanny wouldn't sign Manning AND draft RGIII.

I hear the possible trade offers from Cleveland in this thread to the Rams for their #2,(#4 and #22 picks), and I laugh. The Skins are possibly prepared to give up four picks for the #2 spot, including their #1 pick in 2013, and either Laron Landry or D Hall in a sign and trade.

IMO I don't think the #4 and #22 are going to get it done for the Browns.

Allegedly Shanny believes FLynn is overrated and not worth $50-60 mil contract, so I doubt he's a target in FA.

If the SKins strike out with either Peyton or RGIII, I believe they attempt to grab Tannehill later in the first, or go stop gap with a FA and wait until the 2013 draft to find their guy.
So 4 and 22 are laughable to get a deal done, where St.Louis would still be able to land either the #1 WR or CB in this class which are both huge needs and it adds up on the value chart. Yet you think others are going to take you seriously with Washington giving up 2 first round picks, 2 other picks + Hall or Landry ? So where does this "possibly prepared" statement come from ? Your best guess or do you have a source ? I haven't seen anyone think that St.Louis would get THAT much for the 2nd pick.

That's beyond a boat load to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2(The Jets gave up 17, their 2nd rounder + Abram Elam, Kenyon Coleman and Brett Ratliff to move up 12 spots and Atlanta gave up 2 firsts, a 2nd and 2 4ths to move up 21 spots). Washington may have done some crazy things in the past but not so sure they would give up all that. Maybe the 2 firsts and 2 other picks (depending on what picks those are) but I don't see a Landry or Hall going with that.

FWIW, McShay had this to say :

Quote:
It’s been speculated that the Redskins would have to give up this year’s first-round pick, next year’s first-rounder and this year’s second- or third-rounder to get that pick from the Rams.

But ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay believes that the asking price could be less thanks to the rookie wage scale that was implemented last year.

McShay believes that Washington possibly could wrestle that No. 2 pick away from St. Louis in exchange for this year’s first-round pick, as well as this year’s second-rounder (38th overall) and fourth-rounder (102nd overall).

“I do think they’d flip-flop the first round and somewhere in the ballpark of the second and the fourth,” McShay said while speaking on a pre-draft conference call.

But Washington — which currently holds a first, second, third, two fourths, a fifth, sixth and seventh-round pick in this year’s draft — might have to sweeten the deal because of competition from the Cleveland Browns, who also need a quarterback and hold two first-round picks, including the fourth overall spot.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...quJR_blog.html

Looking at the trade value chart, the 2nd pick is valued at 2600 points.

4 (1800) + 22 (780) = 2580

6 (1600) + 39 (510) = 2110

So Washington's 1st and 2nd + another 2nd would be just about as good as Cleveland's 2 first in point value. Now obviously things don't always go exactly by the chart but Washington would be overpaying by a country mile. It is also obvious that 4 & 22 will hold more value to the Rams than 6, 39 and a 2013 2nd rounder but Washington could probably sweeten their offer by making that 2013 2nd round pick a 1st and paint Cleveland out of the picture and it still comes in at less than what you are saying.

IMO Cleveland could get a deal done with 4, 37 and another pick and get that deal sealed before FA starts, which would still be of great benefit to the Rams because FA could take all or a good chunk of their leverage away.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:12 PM    (permalink
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Put it this way, there are rumors in D.C. that a deal has already been done with the Rams for their 2nd pick.

Of course Cleveland is a player, but I don't think they have the inside track for the Rams pick.

Just a fan sharing what I've heard. We'll all know soon enough.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:19 PM    (permalink
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Put it this way, there are rumors in D.C. that a deal has already been done with the Rams for their 2nd pick.

Of course Cleveland is a player, but I don't think they have the inside track for the Rams pick.

Just a fan sharing what I've heard. We'll all know soon enough.
On the interwebs there are rumors St.Louis had preliminary talks with Washington, amongst other teams. Doubt a deal is done, bet it is much closer to the 2 sides merely feeling each other out at this point in the process.

If Washington has a deal done they'd be wise to make it official before another team comes to the table with a better offer or more intriguing offer.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:25 PM    (permalink
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No way a deal is done already. The Rams will will hold out for the best bid possible. They will also send out smoke screens to try to drive the price up. I guarantee it will take more than you guys are saying. It will take MORE than both of the Brown's #1's. Not much, but a little more. Probably have to add a 2nd or 3rd also. The Skins will use next yrs #1 as bait too.

Browns - both 1sts + 2nd
Skins - 1st, 2nd 3rd + 2013 1st

RG3 won't go for less than that. Guarantee it.

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Old 02-25-2012, 12:27 PM    (permalink
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But ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay believes that the asking price could be less thanks to the rookie wage scale that was implemented last year.


=================

Huh ? Makes no sense. The price will be MORE because the rooks are getting paid way less. No more Mr.Bradford's 60 mill guarantee deals.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:29 PM    (permalink
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Skins - 1st, 2nd, 4th and next year's #1.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:33 PM    (permalink
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yay for bogus draft rumors in april. no trade will happen until right before the draft. this is a last second league. does anyone actually think that whatever washington offers the rams won't give cleveland a chance to match? they have better picks in every round plus an extra first and multiple 4ths.....not to mention that these guys haven't even worked out or interviewed, teams haven't signed free agents or made trades, and no one has set their draft board yet.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:35 PM    (permalink
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....and if Washington signs Manning there is a 0% chance they move for Griffin. That's just stupid. Signing Manning = win now mode. They would try to acquire pieces to win a super bowl as soon as they can (Blackmon, Richardson, Claiborne?) much like Minnesota when they brought in Favre or Arizona with Warner.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:36 PM    (permalink
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Skins - 1st, 2nd, 4th and next year's #1.


I think that would get it done. The Brown's would have to add their 2012 2nd this year to stay in the race. That would make it a VERY tough decision for the Rams. I would lean to the Skins bid because their 2013 1st > Browns 2012 #22.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:45 PM    (permalink
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2013 first is not > #22 this year. You can spend the 22 this year, which makes it more valuable. Plus every other pick in every round for the Browns is higher than the Redskins'.

It is really simple. If the Redskins offer a package that the Browns don't match, they can get Griffin. If the Browns are willing to match, no way do the Rams take less. Browns are in the driver's seat, and they can get to #2 if they are willing to pay whatever the Redskins are willing to pay.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:47 PM    (permalink
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2013 first is not > #22 this year. You can spend the 22 this year, which makes it more valuable. Plus every other pick in every round for the Browns is higher than the Redskins'.


Skins 2013 1st will be a high one imo. That's why I said Skins 2013 1st > Browns 2012 #22. Possibly a top 5 pick.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:49 PM    (permalink
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....and if Washington signs Manning there is a 0% chance they move for Griffin. That's just stupid. Signing Manning = win now mode. They would try to acquire pieces to win a super bowl as soon as they can (Blackmon, Richardson, Claiborne?) much like Minnesota when they brought in Favre or Arizona with Warner.
Peyton isn't playing for 5 more years. The Skins will still need to find his replacement in a couple seasons and if you can grab him now, why not??

Manning is an unknown; new offense, playing outdoors, weak triceps that's taken RPMs off his intermediate and deeper throws. However Peyton is still good enough to win 9-10 games next year with Shanahan.

No, if the Skins can fix their QB problem for the next decade AND win now in 2012, why not do it??

SIgn Peyton, bring in a WR like Colston as a FA, maybe find another safety/CB and all systems are go.

IMO the Skins right now are more talented than the Colts were last year without Peyton, so it's not like the team needs a complete rebuild to compete for a wildcard with him as the starter.

I love RGIII, but expecting him to lead the Skins to the playoffs as a rookie is not realistic.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:49 PM    (permalink
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yay for bogus draft rumors in april. no trade will happen until right before the draft. this is a last second league. does anyone actually think that whatever washington offers the rams won't give cleveland a chance to match? they have better picks in every round plus an extra first and multiple 4ths.....not to mention that these guys haven't even worked out or interviewed, teams haven't signed free agents or made trades, and no one has set their draft board yet.
If St.Louis is smart they would want that deal done ASAP. Don't wanna risk losing any or all leverage, however like you said RG3 hasn't worked out yet so it may prove difficult to get the deal done right now.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:52 PM    (permalink
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Peyton isn't playing for 5 more years. The Skins will still need to find his replacement in a couple seasons and if you can grab him now, why not??

Manning is an unknown; new offense, playing outdoors, weak triceps that's taken RPMs off his intermediate and deeper throws. However Peyton is still good enough to win 9-10 games next year with Shanahan.

No, if the Skins can fix their QB problem for the next decade AND win now in 2012, why not do it??

SIgn Peyton, bring in a WR like Colston as a FA, maybe find another safety/CB and all systems are go.

IMO the Skins right now are more talented than the Colts were last year without Peyton, so it's not like the team needs a complete rebuild to compete for a wildcard with him as the starter.

I love RGIII, but expecting him to lead the Skins to the playoffs as a rookie is not realistic.
well that's not how teams operate in the NFL. If they sign Manning then they'll use all of their resources in free agency and the draft this year to make a super bowl run. If they take a QB then it wouldn't be until the middle rounds. Taking a QB in the top 5 this year means they want the guy to either start right away or wait a year. Peyton Manning signing with Washington would be a win now move, not a stopgap/keep the seat warm for Griffin move.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:54 PM    (permalink
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Scott, Just got done listening to you on 92.3 FM "The Fan" in Cleveland. How coincidental since I just joined your forum tonight. Good job!! You know that the price tag for that #2 pick will never be less than what it is now for the Browns (4 & 22) regardless of other teams filling their quarterback needs. One thing for sure is that the Rams want to drop that hot potato (#2) for sure big time - That's why they are testing the waters now at the combine about down the road possibilities.
If you go off the point value chart the Browns could move up to two without giving up #22. It would take either their second & fourth rounder or a combination of their 2nd rounder and a future pick.

edit - but of course that all changes if multiple teams get involved. They may need to throw in additional picks to sweeten the deal.

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Old 02-25-2012, 12:58 PM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
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The Redskins had one major problem last season; Rex Grossman.
He averaged like 2 turnovers a game. It's not like the Skins were getting rocked by teams last year and they still beat the Giants twice.

A smart consistent QB at the helm and a healthy safety that either covers the mistakes of our younger corners or allows D Hall to freelance is all the D really needs.

THe SKins aren't thinking Super Bowl with Manning, they wanna make the playoffs.
This isn't similar to the Minnesota situation. WHen they signed Favre they looked like a SB contender minus a pro bowl QB.

Even with a 28 year old Peyton Manning this isn't a SB squad.
Snyder wants to get back in the playoffs AND build a SB contender through the draft.

Signing Manning and drafting RGIII does both.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:58 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by ryno626 View Post
If you go off the point value chart the Browns could move up to two without giving up #22. It would take either their second & fourth rounder or a combination of their 2nd rounder and a future pick.
the value chart is better used for midround pick trades. when it comes to top 10 picks, you can throw the chart out the window - especially now with the rookie wage scale. If there is a bidding war for the #2 pick, then the top offer wins out, and it will far surpass the value of the #2 pick on the trade chart.
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Old 02-25-2012, 12:58 PM    (permalink
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Skins 2013 1st will be a high one imo. That's why I said Skins 2013 1st > Browns 2012 #22. Possibly a top 5 pick.
Nobody would have bought the 9ers picking 30th this year if I tried to sell it last year. It's all guesswork right now.
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Old 02-25-2012, 01:02 PM    (permalink
keylime_5
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
The Redskins had one major problem last season; Rex Grossman.
He averaged like 2 turnovers a game. It's not like the Skins were getting rocked by teams last year and they still beat the Giants twice.

A smart consistent QB at the helm and a healthy safety that either covers the mistakes of our younger corners or allows D Hall to freelance is all the D really needs.

THe SKins aren't thinking Super Bowl with Manning, they wanna make the playoffs.
This isn't similar to the Minnesota situation. WHen they signed Favre they looked like a SB contender minus a pro bowl QB.

Even with a 28 year old Peyton Manning this isn't a SB squad.
Snyder wants to get back in the playoffs AND build a SB contender through the draft.

Signing Manning and drafting RGIII does both.
If they want to compete for a super bowl now and in the next couple years they will sign Manning. If they want to build for the long term then they will draft Griffin and not sign Manning. No way they do both. They have a good enough defense and they would only be a WR or 2 away from being able to compete on offense if they sign Manning. If they sign Peyton Manning then it is obvious that they will be expecting to compete for super bowls immediately. If they bring in a young QB maybe they do so with a 2nd or 3rd rounder - or even trade back into the late first - but they won't go all in for Griffin and trade all those draft picks if they sign Manning. That's just not how teams work in the NFL.
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Old 02-25-2012, 01:04 PM    (permalink
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Skins 2013 1st will be a high one imo. That's why I said Skins 2013 1st > Browns 2012 #22. Possibly a top 5 pick.
that's not how it works. teams usually value a pick next year as equal to a pick this year that is a round earlier.....so 2013 2nd rounders are trade for high 3rd round picks in 2012, etc. If you want a high 2nd round pick this year, you'll have to trade a 2013 first or something of equal value to get it. A 2013 first round pick (even from a team who has a top 10 pick this year) is roughly equal to a late 2012 first rounder.
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Old 02-25-2012, 01:17 PM    (permalink
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that's not how it works. teams usually value a pick next year as equal to a pick this year that is a round earlier.....so 2013 2nd rounders are trade for high 3rd round picks in 2012, etc. If you want a high 2nd round pick this year, you'll have to trade a 2013 first or something of equal value to get it. A 2013 first round pick (even from a team who has a top 10 pick this year) is roughly equal to a late 2012 first rounder.


Yeah, you're probably right.
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Old 02-25-2012, 01:20 PM    (permalink
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Just saying that signing Manning for the Skins IMO isn't about a SB run in 2012.
It's about getting Shanahan's program on solid footing and becoming a playoff caliber squad.
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Old 02-25-2012, 01:28 PM    (permalink
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I would be surprised if any team signs Peyton Manning without the expectations of contending. Making the playoffs is a goal for any team, let alone one with a stud QB. I think most teams set a little more lofty goals for themselves once they already have a great QB.
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