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Old 03-25-2012, 10:17 AM    (permalink
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Just woke up and waded through the three pages. Since this lie detector thing has gotten out of control since the one time Caddy used it, I am not bad nor am I evil.

This is the largest game I have been in and I just don't think it is all that smart to randomly lynch in this case but that is me.
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Old 03-25-2012, 10:21 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by A Perfect Score View Post
In a sense, yes. On one end, your logic is sound; a higher number of people should lead to a higher number of investigators and therefore, info. However, the higher number of people also suggests (at least to me) that we're going to have a significant amount of "wildcard" roles thrown in, and those could be serial killers, vigilantes, wild animals, etc. given the vast well of inspiration the game creators had to draw from in the HP world. So while it means we could have more info tomorrow, it also means more people could die tonight.

Also, 4 straight posts from RoP, three repetitions of he's not evil and he'll be playing a made up sequel instead of contributing? Hmmm...
Alright, that makes sense. So instead of the standard 1-2 deaths in a night you are thinking that we could get hit for 3+? That would suck. Regardless, you guys know more than me so I will let the experts discuss some while I watch the Newcastle game and I'll see what you have to say when I'm back. Just wanted to put my 2 cents in before I disappear for a couple hours.
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Old 03-25-2012, 10:29 AM    (permalink
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Still not sure what direction to go in. To lynch or not to lynch and if so, who?
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Old 03-25-2012, 10:39 AM    (permalink
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Still not sure what direction to go in. To lynch or not to lynch and if so, who?
Well at this point its a crap shoot. If we go by the typical 20 man game stats there should be about 7-10 deatheaters (I am assuming is the Mafia class in this game). Then another 5-8 Neutral roles. So that leaves 20-26 good guys.

So if we take a shot a lynching a random we have about 53-68% chance of lynching a good guy.

Not the best of odds.
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Old 03-25-2012, 10:46 AM    (permalink
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Well at this point its a crap shoot. If we go by the typical 20 man game stats there should be about 7-10 deatheaters (I am assuming is the Mafia class in this game). Then another 5-8 Neutral roles. So that leaves 20-26 good guys.

So if we take a shot a lynching a random we have about 53-68% chance of lynching a good guy.

Not the best of odds.
I agree. Chances are a random lynch ends with someone good or neutral dead but no lynch is also not a great option.
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Old 03-25-2012, 10:51 AM    (permalink
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Vote: No Lynch
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Old 03-25-2012, 10:57 AM    (permalink
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I would agree with lynching on the first day if we had someone to lynch. I think it would be stupid to lynch people for no reason so...

Vote: No Lynch
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:04 AM    (permalink
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The only thing is, we have no idea how many people have the ability to kill, so is sending who knows how many people to slaughter without doing anything really a good idea?
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:08 AM    (permalink
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The only thing is, we have no idea how many people have the ability to kill, so is sending who knows how many people to slaughter without doing anything really a good idea?
Trust me I understand. That is one of the reasons why I am holding off on voting.

But as a rebuttal to your question is it possibly worth sending one extra one to the slaughter because we need to lynch someone?
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:21 AM    (permalink
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The thing is, who would we lynch? It would be unfair to lynch someone off reputation and right now no one has a lyncher type role which is making people speak so no lynch is the only we can go right now. With the amount of people in the game it could be a long time before we hear from everyone though.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:21 AM    (permalink
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i'm just really not a fan of no lynch on the first day. I understand the reasoning for it but I just don't think it helps anyone.

for any lie detectors, since this is the new thing, I am not evil or bad or neutral.

Also, there's a zillion people in this game, I feel we should give more time before people start throwing out no lynch votes. Let's see if some suspicious posts start coming in before we throw out a quick no lynch
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:23 AM    (permalink
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We can all change our votes if people start getting suspicious.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:23 AM    (permalink
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The thing is, who would we lynch? It would be unfair to lynch someone off reputation and right now no one has a lyncher type role which is making people speak so no lynch is the only we can go right now. With the amount of people in the game it could be a long time before we hear from everyone though.
the thread's been open what? 10 hours? Hell, I just woke up and there's like 8 official lynch votes. People need to slow it down a bit and have some discussion and wait for other people to have a chance to even know the thread exists before we move on a day without any discussion or getting anywhere
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:24 AM    (permalink
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the thread's been open what? 10 hours? Hell, I just woke up and there's like 8 official lynch votes. People need to slow it down a bit and have some discussion and wait for other people to have a chance to even know the thread exists before we move on a day without any discussion or getting anywhere
thats what im saying. wait until the majority of people of spoken and decide then, it could be a while though.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:49 AM    (permalink
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My reasoning for not lynching; were losing people tonight as it is, there is no sense shooting in the dark on the first day when all most of us have done is say "I'm not evil". Thats not alot of discussion to go off of, and at this point even with discussion what are we going to get? No one has done anything yet, we have nothing to accuse anyone of except for blindly saying youre evil. The good in these games have to out number the evil for this game to function properly, which means lynching blindly is heavily favoring killing someone innocent. We have investigators, protectors etc. Let them do their job and we can start real discussion tomorrow. People who want to just lynch day one, namely Gow and APS are most suspicious to me, and the mafia/death eaters know it basically can wind up being a free extra kill on day one. Just saying, how well has lynching day one worked out for us in the last several games..... weve killed someone innocent every time.
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I don't know how old you are, but if you can get to 24/25 without getting arrested or killed, you've done well for yourself lol.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:51 AM    (permalink
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I personally found RoP's activity on the last page suspicious, but he's also a crazy ************ and he could just be...well, being himself. Regardless, I'm not a fan of putting the ball in the other teams court, so to speak. Giving the Death Eaters a free run at murdering people seems like lambs to a slaughter, but that's just my opinion. If we decide no-lynch is the safest way to go, you'll have my vote.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:54 AM    (permalink
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I personally found RoP's activity on the last page suspicious, but he's also a crazy ************ and he could just be...well, being himself. Regardless, I'm not a fan of putting the ball in the other teams court, so to speak. Giving the Death Eaters a free run at murdering people seems like lambs to a slaughter, but that's just my opinion. If we decide no-lynch is the safest way to go, you'll have my vote.
It's inevitable that someone will die unless we get lucky that someone protects someone. There is no sense in doing the death eaters job for them.

Losing a couple at night > losing a couple at night lynching + someone innocent.
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I don't know how old you are, but if you can get to 24/25 without getting arrested or killed, you've done well for yourself lol.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:54 AM    (permalink
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I really don't like it but I'm going for a no lynch.

Vote: No lynch
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:54 AM    (permalink
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I personally found RoP's activity on the last page suspicious, but he's also a crazy ************ and he could just be...well, being himself. Regardless, I'm not a fan of putting the ball in the other teams court, so to speak. Giving the Death Eaters a free run at murdering people seems like lambs to a slaughter, but that's just my opinion. If we decide no-lynch is the safest way to go, you'll have my vote.
Death eaters? You're scaring me APS.

Just the fact that Voledmort is out there is scaring the **** out of me as well.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:55 AM    (permalink
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The fact that you all are saying "he shall not be named" name is frightening to me.
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Jesse realizing Walt was Santa Claus could really shake things up.
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I don't know how old you are, but if you can get to 24/25 without getting arrested or killed, you've done well for yourself lol.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:55 AM    (permalink
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It's inevitable that someone will die unless we get lucky that someone protects someone. There is no sense in doing the death eaters job for them.

Losing a couple at night > losing a couple at night lynching + someone innocent.
Basically this, unless someone brings attention to themselves, i think no lynch is the way to go.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:56 AM    (permalink
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The fact that you all are saying "he shall not be named" name is frightening to me.
Yes, we should look at anyone who isn't afraid to say his name quite carefully...I can imagine that the only people who wouldn't be afraid to say it are Harry, Dumbledore and He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named himself...
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:57 AM    (permalink
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My reasoning for not lynching; were losing people tonight as it is, there is no sense shooting in the dark on the first day when all most of us have done is say "I'm not evil". Thats not alot of discussion to go off of, and at this point even with discussion what are we going to get? No one has done anything yet, we have nothing to accuse anyone of except for blindly saying youre evil. The good in these games have to out number the evil for this game to function properly, which means lynching blindly is heavily favoring killing someone innocent. We have investigators, protectors etc. Let them do their job and we can start real discussion tomorrow. People who want to just lynch day one, namely Gow and APS are most suspicious to me, and the mafia/death eaters know it basically can wind up being a free extra kill on day one. Just saying, how well has lynching day one worked out for us in the last several games..... weve killed someone innocent every time.
You just summed up everything I was about to type. In the last mafia game every time we lynched someone they were innocent. It wasn't until late in the game that the mafia started being lynched. We have too high a chance to lynch someone innocent and I'd rather not risk it. Let the protectors, investigators do their job and hopefully we can have more info the next day.

With that being said, Warlock Mahan was a good man and we'll miss his services.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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I agree with Scotty, we don't need to rush this. The longer we talk this out, the more of a chance that someone slips up and we make at least a semi intelligent lynch here.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:59 AM    (permalink
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Death eaters? You're scaring me APS.

Just the fact that Voledmort is out there is scaring the **** out of me as well.
Saying "He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named" name with such ease is suspicious.
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