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Old 04-20-2012, 01:37 PM    (permalink
MI_Buckeye
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Default 1st Round Prospect Percentages

I heard Kiper and McShay go through this exercise on their podcast the other day, and I thought it'd be interesting to get insight from the experts on this forum. The exercise is simple; just designate a percentage chance that each given prospect will wind up in the first round. Feel free to add any outher prospects you feel have a chance to go in round one.

Doug Martin
Brandon Weeden
Peter Konz
Amini Silatolu
Kevin Zeitler
Mike Adams
Jonathan Martin
Bobby Massie
Coby Fleener
Dwayne Allen
Kendall Wright
Alshon Jeffery
Stephen Hill
Jerel Worthy
Devon Still
Kendall Reyes
Vinny Curry
Nick Perry
Shea McClellin
Andre Branch
Whintey Mercilus
Mychal Kendricks
Lavonte David
Janoris Jenkins
Josh Robinson
Harrison Smith
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Old 04-20-2012, 01:45 PM    (permalink
mightytitan9
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Default

Doug Martin - 25%
Brandon Weeden - 5%
Peter Konz - 20%
Amini Silatolu - 10%
Kevin Zeitler - 10%
Mike Adams - 25%
Jonathan Martin - 25%
Bobby Massie - 25%
Coby Fleener - 20%
Dwayne Allen - 5%
Kendall Wright - 30%
Alshon Jeffery - 35%
Stephen Hill - 35%
Jerel Worthy - 50%
Devon Still - 30%
Kendall Reyes - 25%
Vinny Curry - 30%
Nick Perry - 25%
Shea McClellin - 40%
Andre Branch - 40%
Whintey Mercilus - 35%
Mychal Kendricks - 5%
Lavonte David - 20%
Janoris Jenkins - 20%
Josh Robinson - 20%
Harrison Smith 30%
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Old 04-20-2012, 01:47 PM    (permalink
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Default

Doug Martin 35%
Brandon Weeden 2%
Peter Konz 85%
Amini Silatolu 20%
Kevin Zeitler 41%
Mike Adams 40%
Jonathan Martin 90%
Bobby Massie 81%
Coby Fleener 82%
Kendall Wright 80%
Alshon Jeffery 30%
Stephen Hill 80%
Jerel Worthy 66%
Devon Still 39%
Kendall Reyes 52%
Vinny Curry 64%
Nick Perry 80%
Shea McClellin 60%
Whintey Mercilus
Mychal Kendricks 21%
Lavonte David 15%
Janoris Jenkins 60%
Josh Robinson 2%
Harrison Smith 5%
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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
"He won't be able to just use his arm power to throw defenders around at the next level!"

The hell he won't, lol.
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Old 04-20-2012, 02:47 PM    (permalink
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jackalope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.jackalope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.jackalope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.jackalope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.jackalope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.jackalope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.jackalope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.jackalope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.jackalope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.jackalope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.jackalope is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mightytitan9 View Post
Peter Konz - 20%
Really? That low?
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Old 04-20-2012, 03:31 PM    (permalink
Thunder&Lightning
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This thread is stupid... 39%? 81%?...
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Old 04-20-2012, 03:33 PM    (permalink
K Train
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Default

clearly advanced mathematical equations came up with those numbers
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Originally Posted by Saints-Tigers View Post
"He won't be able to just use his arm power to throw defenders around at the next level!"

The hell he won't, lol.
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:04 PM    (permalink
Ozzy
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Is this for real, I feel a few of these guys are absolute locks to be 1st round picks...a little bold but here are mine...

I would be shocked if any of the guys I have at 100% do not get drafted in the 1st round based on the team needs.

Doug Martin 35%
Brandon Weeden 5%
Peter Konz 100%
Kevin Zeitler 35%
Mike Adams 15%
Jonathan Martin 100%
Bobby Massie 5%
Coby Fleener 50%
Dwayne Allen 50%
Kendall Wright 45%
Alshon Jeffery 60%
Stephen Hill 70%
Jerel Worthy 65%
Devon Still 20%
Kendall Reyes 5%
Vinny Curry 20%
Nick Perry 100%
Shea McClellin 5%
Andre Branch 5%
Whintey Mercilus 35%
Mychal Kendricks 5%
Lavonte David 5%
Janoris Jenkins 100%
Josh Robinson 15%
Harrison Smith 5%
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:29 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jackalope View Post
Really? That low?
I'm a big Konz fan, but he's a Center and has a history of injuries.

I also looked at things a little different than most, the 1st round has 32 picks, 20% of that if roughly 6. If Konz goes first round, I think he'd go between 26-32. 6/32 is roughly 20%.
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:44 PM    (permalink
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Doug Martin - 35%
Brandon Weeden - 40%
Peter Konz - 60%
Amini Silatolu - 55%
Kevin Zeitler - 30%
Mike Adams - 25%
Jonathan Martin - 75%
Bobby Massie - 10%
Coby Fleener - 70%
Dwayne Allen - 5%
Kendall Wright - 50%
Alshon Jeffery - 30%
Stephen Hill - 80%
Jerel Worthy - 65%
Devon Still - 70%
Kendall Reyes - 40%
Vinny Curry - 15%
Nick Perry - 65%
Shea McClellin - 50%
Andre Branch - 45%
Whintey Mercilus - 55%
Mychal Kendricks - 35%
Lavonte David - 35%
Janoris Jenkins - 40%
Josh Robinson - < 1%
Harrison Smith - 5%
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:53 PM    (permalink
jackalope
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mightytitan9 View Post
I also looked at things a little different than most, the 1st round has 32 picks, 20% of that if roughly 6. If Konz goes first round, I think he'd go between 26-32. 6/32 is roughly 20%.
That logic really doesn't make any sense. By that, you could say "Dre Kirkpatrick is most likely to go between picks 16-32, therefore there is only a 50% chance of Kirkpatrick going in the first round." You should really rethink that; there's a lot wrong with it.

You also need to consider that Green Bay and Baltimore would both give him strong consideration, which alone should make him above 20% probable to go round one.
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Old 04-21-2012, 01:09 AM    (permalink
Diehard
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Default

Doug Martin - 25%
Brandon Weeden - 5%
Peter Konz - 75%
Amini Silatolu - 25%
Kevin Zeitler - 25%
Mike Adams - 25%
Jonathan Martin - 75%
Bobby Massie - 25%
Coby Fleener - 50%
Dwayne Allen - 5%
Kendall Wright - 75%
Alshon Jeffery - 50%
Stephen Hill - 75%
Jerel Worthy - 75%
Devon Still - 50%
Kendall Reyes - 5%
Vinny Curry - 5%
Nick Perry - 25%
Shea McClellin - 25%
Andre Branch - 5%
Whintey Mercilus - 25%
Mychal Kendricks - 5%
Lavonte David - 5%
Janoris Jenkins - 50%
Josh Robinson - 5%
Harrison Smith - 5%
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Old 04-21-2012, 02:11 AM    (permalink
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Doug Martin 7%
Brandon Weeden 15%
Peter Konz 55%
Amini Silatolu 22%
Kevin Zeitler42%
Mike Adams 38%
Jonathan Martin 87%
Bobby Massie 1%
Coby Fleener 97%
Dwayne Allen 21%
Kendall Wright 77%
Alshon Jeffery 76%
Stephen Hill 89%
Jerel Worthy 29%
Devon Still 29%
Kendall Reyes 29%
Vinny Curry 14%
Nick Perry 99,9%
Shea McClellin 23%
Andre Branch 93%
Whintey Mercilus 66%
Mychal Kendricks70%
Lavonte David ?%
Janoris Jenkins 38%
Josh Robinson 7%
Harrison Smith 82%

plus:
Chandler Jones 99,9%
Andrew Luck and RG3 200% ;)
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Old 04-21-2012, 05:41 AM    (permalink
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Default

Doug Martin - 10%
Brandon Weeden - 5%
Peter Konz - 50%
Amini Silatolu - 10%
Kevin Zeitler - 30%
Mike Adams - 50%
Jonathan Martin - 70%
Bobby Massie - 5%
Coby Fleener - 55%
Dwayne Allen - 5%
Kendall Wright - 90%
Alshon Jeffery - 15%
Stephen Hill - 70%
Jerel Worthy - 65%
Devon Still - 25%
Kendall Reyes - 25%
Vinny Curry - 10%
Nick Perry - 45%
Shea McClellin - 60%
Andre Branch - 35%
Whintey Mercilus - 60%
Mychal Kendricks - 5%
Lavonte David - 10%
Janoris Jenkins - 60%
Josh Robinson - 5%
Harrison Smith - 20%
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Old 04-21-2012, 06:17 AM    (permalink
Caddy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jackalope View Post
That logic really doesn't make any sense. By that, you could say "Dre Kirkpatrick is most likely to go between picks 16-32, therefore there is only a 50% chance of Kirkpatrick going in the first round." You should really rethink that; there's a lot wrong with it.

You also need to consider that Green Bay and Baltimore would both give him strong consideration, which alone should make him above 20% probable to go round one.
Take your "numbers" and "math" and
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Old 04-21-2012, 08:41 AM    (permalink
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Doug Martin 10%
Brandon Weeden 10%
Peter Konz 45%
Amini Silatolu 25%
Kevin Zeitler 60%
Mike Adams 40%
Jonathan Martin 60%
Bobby Massie 10%
Coby Fleener 30%
Dwayne Allen 10%
Kendall Wright 60%
Alshon Jeffery 45%
Stephen Hill 85%
Jerel Worthy 70%
Devon Still 30%
Kendall Reyes 25%
Vinny Curry 55%
Nick Perry 80%
Shea McClellin 60%
Andre Branch 40%
Whintey Mercilus 90%
Mychal Kendricks 65%
Lavonte David 40%
Janoris Jenkins 5%
Josh Robinson 5%
Harrison Smith 10%
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Old 04-21-2012, 02:09 PM    (permalink
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Doug Martin - 5%
Brandon Weeden - 80%
Peter Konz - 80%
Amini Silatolu - 25%
Kevin Zeitler - 5%
Mike Adams - 1%
Jonathan Martin - 80%
Bobby Massie - 5%
Coby Fleener - 50%
Dwayne Allen - 5%
Kendall Wright - 70%
Alshon Jeffery - 60%
Stephen Hill - 30%
Jerel Worthy - 10%
Devon Still - 50%
Kendall Reyes - 15%
Vinny Curry - 5%
Nick Perry - 90%
Shea McClellin - 5%
Andre Branch - 15%
Whintey Mercilus - 25%
Mychal Kendricks - 5%
Lavonte David - 5%
Janoris Jenkins - 65%
Josh Robinson - 5%
Harrison Smith - 5%

J
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Old 04-21-2012, 02:16 PM    (permalink
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I'm surprised to see so many people listing Doug Martin so low. At this point, I would figure he would at least be a coin flip at this point.
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Old 04-21-2012, 06:53 PM    (permalink
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Doug Martin 85%
Brandon Weeden 0%
Peter Konz 90%
Amini Silatolu 75%
Kevin Zeitler 90%
Mike Adams 50%
Jonathan Martin 60%
Bobby Massie 40%
Coby Fleener 80%
Dwayne Allen 20%
Kendall Wright 70%
Alshon Jeffery 65%
Stephen Hill 100%
Jerel Worthy 40%
Devon Still 0%
Kendall Reyes 0%
Vinny Curry 0%
Nick Perry 70%
Shea McClellin 85%
Andre Branch 60%
Whintey Mercilus 75%
Mychal Kendricks 70%
Lavonte David 10%
Janoris Jenkins 30%
Josh Robinson 0%
Harrison Smith 50%
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Old 04-21-2012, 06:54 PM    (permalink
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Asteinebach is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Asteinebach is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Asteinebach is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Asteinebach is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Asteinebach is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Asteinebach is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Asteinebach is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Asteinebach is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Asteinebach is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Asteinebach is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Asteinebach is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MI_Buckeye View Post
I'm surprised to see so many people listing Doug Martin so low. At this point, I would figure he would at least be a coin flip at this point.
Welcome to the Redundancy Department of Redundancy.
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Old 04-22-2012, 11:45 AM    (permalink
mightytitan9
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That logic really doesn't make any sense. By that, you could say "Dre Kirkpatrick is most likely to go between picks 16-32, therefore there is only a 50% chance of Kirkpatrick going in the first round." You should really rethink that; there's a lot wrong with it.

You also need to consider that Green Bay and Baltimore would both give him strong consideration, which alone should make him above 20% probable to go round one.
Exactly, people are overestimating the percentages on whether a guy will go first round or not. For Konz, that's how I did it, not that way for everyone, but several of the prospect listed because they're all borderline guys that aren't going to be in high demand, it's more whether a team likes them or not.

Andre Luck is 100%, Rg3 is 100%, Blackmon is 100% etc, Dre Kirkpatrick I would call 80%, but some of these people are just ridiculous calling borderline first round guys 80-100%

It's just the same as people saying 0%, these are players that are ranked as last first to mid to late 2nd on most boards, to say some players have 0% of going 1st round is not likely, because all it takes is one team.

If you don't like my method don't pay attention to it, simple as that
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Old 04-22-2012, 11:49 AM    (permalink
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Doug Martin 60%
Brandon Weeden 40%
Peter Konz 70%
Amini Silatolu 15%
Kevin Zeitler 30%
Mike Adams 20%
Jonathan Martin 60%
Bobby Massie 10%
Coby Fleener 80%
Dwayne Allen 0%
Kendall Wright 80%
Alshon Jeffery 25%
Stephen Hill 90%
Jerel Worthy 20%
Devon Still 70%
Kendall Reyes 10%
Vinny Curry 10%
Nick Perry 70%
Shea McClellin 75%
Andre Branch 80%
Whintey Mercilus 85%
Mychal Kendricks 10%
Lavonte David 40%
Janoris Jenkins 30%
Josh Robinson 0%
Harrison Smith 60%
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Old 04-22-2012, 12:04 PM    (permalink
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0% on Josh Robinson seems low to me, I'm not as high on him as most. But he's rated as the 4th CB by most behind Claiborne, Kirkpatrick, Jenkins. I could even see someone taking him over Jenkins with his off the field issues.

Lately 4 CB's have been about the norm in the first round, so while I'm not thinking he goes first round I think you've got to give him higher than 0
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Old 04-22-2012, 12:10 PM    (permalink
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0% on Josh Robinson seems low to me, I'm not as high on him as most. But he's rated as the 4th CB by most behind Claiborne, Kirkpatrick, Jenkins. I could even see someone taking him over Jenkins with his off the field issues.

Lately 4 CB's have been about the norm in the first round, so while I'm not thinking he goes first round I think you've got to give him higher than 0
Don't forget Stephon Gilmore though

And CB value in the draft after the top 3 seems to be in the middle of the second, including Jenkins with his off the field worries.

I also don't see too many teams at the back end of the first reaching on a guy like Robinson.

Denver have other needs
Houston should go WR or DT
NE are an option but I would suspect there will be other guys higher on their board, plus they are a trade down option
GB could use CB help but this area is where the edge rusher value comes in with Perry, Upshaw, McClellin, Branch
Baltimore don't tend to reach on guys and CB isn't a big need
SF could take him but could also take a WR or Fleener
NE as above
NYG probably won't take a CB

I think if any CB in the second is to be drafted in the first it will be Jenkins based on upside with a team hoping they can get him to stay on the straight and narrow
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