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Old 05-01-2014, 03:38 PM    (permalink
fredder
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Great analysis Detroit4Life,

Do you see the Lions going Beckham or Cooks that high? Would it be that significant of a reach? Kinda seems like it based on current projections but everyone knows during the draft prospects shoot up and down the board. I believe I read somewhere that Beckham is primarily a slot WR?

It would probably make sense to trade down slightly to grab one assuming Evans is off the board and they are not high on Ebron. What would be the most realistic trade scenerio? Also, what about a guy like Latimer from Indiana?
Do you mean targeting Latimer in round 1? If so, I'm assuming you mean after trading down. I really like Latimer and definitely understand why he's moving up boards but I don't think he's worth a 1st round pick like some others do. I think people are overrating him because he's riding the most recent wave of momentum. I think he falls somewhere in the tightly contested 6-12 range of WR rankings. I definitely think we should consider him in the 2nd if he's still around when we pick and he'd be a steal in the 3rd.
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Old 05-01-2014, 04:18 PM    (permalink
detroit4life
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Great analysis Detroit4Life,

Do you see the Lions going Beckham or Cooks that high? Would it be that significant of a reach? Kinda seems like it based on current projections but everyone knows during the draft prospects shoot up and down the board. I believe I read somewhere that Beckham is primarily a slot WR?

It would probably make sense to trade down slightly to grab one assuming Evans is off the board and they are not high on Ebron. What would be the most realistic trade scenerio? Also, what about a guy like Latimer from Indiana?
I do think Beckham or Cooks would be a slight reach, but not as big as I would have thought a couple months ago. At this point I feel like every guy we talk about besides Ebron would be a slight reach. I feel as if there is a very clear 2nd tier of players and that tier includes everyone we have talked about
(HaHa, Gilbert, Barr, Dennard, Mosley, Donald, Martin, Beckham, Cooks and the QBs).

BPA at #10 will most likely be Donald, Mosley or Lewan. While I like Mosley a lot, his injury histories are a huge concern and his abilities at LB are very similar to Levy. The other 2 guys are simply at positions we don't consider a huge need. So the debate will be that you either go BPA or you make a slight reach for a player at a position you need.

I think that if we stay at #10 we will make that slight reach, because in reality it's not that big of a reach. Yes a trade down will be ideal, but that is easier said than done. I do personally think that we will not pick at #10, whether that is a move up or move down. I just don't think #10 is a very ideal spot for us due to everything I just said above. But for arguments sake, I think that if we pick at #10 it will be a WR or HaHa.
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Old 05-01-2014, 04:41 PM    (permalink
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I do think Beckham or Cooks would be a slight reach, but not as big as I would have thought a couple months ago. At this point I feel like every guy we talk about besides Ebron would be a slight reach. I feel as if there is a very clear 2nd tier of players and that tier includes everyone we have talked about
(HaHa, Gilbert, Barr, Dennard, Mosley, Donald, Martin, Beckham, Cooks and the QBs).

BPA at #10 will most likely be Donald, Mosley or Lewan. While I like Mosley a lot, his injury histories are a huge concern and his abilities at LB are very similar to Levy. The other 2 guys are simply at positions we don't consider a huge need. So the debate will be that you either go BPA or you make a slight reach for a player at a position you need.

I think that if we stay at #10 we will make that slight reach, because in reality it's not that big of a reach. Yes a trade down will be ideal, but that is easier said than done. I do personally think that we will not pick at #10, whether that is a move up or move down. I just don't think #10 is a very ideal spot for us due to everything I just said above. But for arguments sake, I think that if we pick at #10 it will be a WR or HaHa.
I completely agree about us likely being right at the start of the 2nd tier of prospects. It's really unfortunate and I think it's the reason why we've shown interest in moving up. Mayhew has mentioned the fact that there's an elite tier of prospect and then a drop-off and I can't agree more. I'm with you that our best bets are to either trade up, assuming it doesn't cost to much, or trade down a bit and hopefully get a similar prospect while picking up an extra pick. It could be tough though to find a trade partner.

There's not likely to be anyone available at #10 that I'd be excited about picking there but I think the prospects sitting in the 15-25 range line up very well with our needs (WR,CB,S). Hopefully we can make something happen on draft day.
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Old 05-01-2014, 05:00 PM    (permalink
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I completely agree about us likely being right at the start of the 2nd tier of prospects. It's really unfortunate and I think it's the reason why we've shown interest in moving up. Mayhew has mentioned the fact that there's an elite tier of prospect and then a drop-off and I can't agree more. I'm with you that our best bets are to either trade up, assuming it doesn't cost to much, or trade down a bit and hopefully get a similar prospect while picking up an extra pick. It could be tough though to find a trade partner.

There's not likely to be anyone available at #10 that I'd be excited about picking there but I think the prospects sitting in the 15-25 range line up very well with our needs (WR,CB,S). Hopefully we can make something happen on draft day.
Agreed. My hope is that Lewan is there at #10 and someone makes a jump for him. He and Donald may be the 2 guys with that teams might covet enough to warrant a trade.

I honestly do not want to move out of the teens but I think any pick in the 10-19 range will give us a quality WR or DB that we are hoping to get.
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Old 05-01-2014, 05:17 PM    (permalink
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Couple things:

1) I think if we are dedicated to taking an offensive playmaker at #10, I don't think the debate is what player is better, rather what do we want from our offense.

If we are looking for a bigger target, a guy who can work the middle of the field, pose match-up problems, and give Stafford a big target. Yeah Ebron would be the pick. I view him as a WR really, not a TE. I figure we will split him out most of the time and while we would have the ability to run a jumbo set with him and pettigrew, he would do minimal blocking. Mind you this is with the assumption Evans is off the board. If not, Evans makes more sense to me.

But if you are looking for a playmaker, a guy who can take the top off a defense and be a threat everytime he touches the ball. I think Beckham or Cooks is the pick. Yes it is a slight reach but again, the debate is from the standpoint of whether we are set on the idea of adding another offensive guy to the offense.

Both options make this offense significantly better. But they add very different things. I think the difference maker will be what we want from our offense. With our infatuation with Watkins, I get the sense that we want the playmaker and the guy that can make the big plays. I have gotten the sense that we are looking to open up the field a lot, and I think that makes sense with the way our offense is set up.


2) I am curious as to the question marks you are referring to with Haha. Is it simply the Alabama background and the trends of these secondary guys seeming to have peaked already? Or is there something else I am missing. I personally think HaHa would be a great addition to our defense. He's got the size and speed teams love. The ability to play man to man at the LOS and also sit back and read the QB. Once again, he may be a reach depending on who you ask. His value seems to be anywhere from 10-20 but I think it is a fair assumption that he will be gone by 15.
Ha Ha just doesn't wow me in any way. He's very solid, and that's helpful in a safety, but you need to be a big time playmaker for me to take you in the top 10. Ha Ha just isn't. I don't hate the idea of adding him, but he's poor value in our slot.

I agree with you saying it depends what we want from our offense. I think we want/need the things Ebron brings over the things Beckham/Cooks bring. I say that in part because we just added a smaller receiver for big money and am not sure it would be smart to go that route again. Stafford's balls tend to go high if anything too.

Like I said though, I'd consider adding a deep threat later in the draft. Bryant,Janis,Richardson etc. would be candidates.
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Old 05-02-2014, 11:02 AM    (permalink
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Give me Ebron at 10 and Moncrief in the 2nd round, spend one of our fourth round picks on a versatile interior lineman and then draft physical specimens to pad the depth at defensive back, defensive line and linebacker.

But with Ebron and Moncrief alongside Calvin and Golden and we have the best receiving corps in the game.
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Old 05-02-2014, 11:32 AM    (permalink
detroit4life
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Give me Ebron at 10 and Moncrief in the 2nd round, spend one of our fourth round picks on a versatile interior lineman and then draft physical specimens to pad the depth at defensive back, defensive line and linebacker.

But with Ebron and Moncrief alongside Calvin and Golden and we have the best receiving corps in the game.
I just think that's overkill. I think we need to add 1 weapon on offense and then shift the focus to the defense and some depth on the oline.

Our offense as it is right now is better than most in the league. I think one more dynamic weapon puts us way over the top.
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Old 05-02-2014, 12:00 PM    (permalink
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I'm ok with overkill. Lets be ridiculously good on offense and hope the D can match last year and hopefully improve a bit.
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Old 05-02-2014, 12:17 PM    (permalink
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Do you guys want to post Lion mocks in a separate thread?
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Old 05-02-2014, 12:20 PM    (permalink
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Sounds good to me.
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Old 05-02-2014, 12:22 PM    (permalink
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I'm ok with overkill. Lets be ridiculously good on offense and hope the D can match last year and hopefully improve a bit.
I agree but my point is I think that if we add a good WR to the offense we already have we will be ridiculously good already. Last year we were 13th in scoring and 6th in total yards. This is with Durham as our 2nd WR and Calvin missing a game.

We have already made a huge improvement adding Tate. Adding another good WR would really put us over the top. How much more value does adding even another weapon give you? With Calvin, Tate, Bush, Bell and whatever rookie we do add in the draft, I simply don't think adding a second guy makes you that much better. The stats we put up last year was already driven by the fact that we were 3rd in passing yards.

Just my opinion though.
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Old 05-02-2014, 01:13 PM    (permalink
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I just think that's overkill. I think we need to add 1 weapon on offense and then shift the focus to the defense and some depth on the oline.

Our offense as it is right now is better than most in the league. I think one more dynamic weapon puts us way over the top.
Megatron just played an entire season with a swollen knee, I'd like to have insurance. I love Tate as a number 2 receiver, but I'd love to have a true replacement for Calvin and I think Moncrief can be that sort of player. Meanwhile, Ebron would bring a versatility to our offense that simply adding another receiver can't do.

With Calvin, Tate, Moncrief and Ebron on the field with our running duo, our passing game has a significant strategic edge against a nickle set and our running game should be able to dominate any dime formations.
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Old 05-02-2014, 01:17 PM    (permalink
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I agree but my point is I think that if we add a good WR to the offense we already have we will be ridiculously good already. Last year we were 13th in scoring and 6th in total yards. This is with Durham as our 2nd WR and Calvin missing a game.

We have already made a huge improvement adding Tate. Adding another good WR would really put us over the top. How much more value does adding even another weapon give you? With Calvin, Tate, Bush, Bell and whatever rookie we do add in the draft, I simply don't think adding a second guy makes you that much better. The stats we put up last year was already driven by the fact that we were 3rd in passing yards.

Just my opinion though.
I think the big question is whether you view Ebron as an all-around tightend or not. You mentioned previously about minimizing Ebron's blocking, that is one of my favorite parts of his game. He's not a finished product in that area, but was dominant at times as blocker at UNC.
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Old 05-02-2014, 01:23 PM    (permalink
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I agree but my point is I think that if we add a good WR to the offense we already have we will be ridiculously good already. Last year we were 13th in scoring and 6th in total yards. This is with Durham as our 2nd WR and Calvin missing a game.

We have already made a huge improvement adding Tate. Adding another good WR would really put us over the top. How much more value does adding even another weapon give you? With Calvin, Tate, Bush, Bell and whatever rookie we do add in the draft, I simply don't think adding a second guy makes you that much better. The stats we put up last year was already driven by the fact that we were 3rd in passing yards.

Just my opinion though.
SUre, the Broncos are still really good if they just add Welker last year, but having Julius Thomas was pretty damn helpful too. Yes, the offense is fine and should be elite with just one addition. But what if you have an injury to Bush or Johnson(both have some issues in the department) or what if your rookie WR isn't ready to produce, as is often the case? I think adding excess talent just in case is a smart idea. Not just on offense.
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Old 05-02-2014, 02:01 PM    (permalink
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Megatron just played an entire season with a swollen knee, I'd like to have insurance. I love Tate as a number 2 receiver, but I'd love to have a true replacement for Calvin and I think Moncrief can be that sort of player. Meanwhile, Ebron would bring a versatility to our offense that simply adding another receiver can't do.

With Calvin, Tate, Moncrief and Ebron on the field with our running duo, our passing game has a significant strategic edge against a nickle set and our running game should be able to dominate any dime formations.
There is no doubt that adding Ebron and a WR makes the offense better. I guess my view is that while I think our offense is one good WR away from being dominant on that side of the ball, I think our defense is not very far off either. I think our team gets a lot better overall if we manage to add a WR and find a starter or 2 on the defensive side.

We can build a great offense but if we can't improve on the defensive side we will always have issues taking our division because GB and CHI are built to be able to go head to head with us in a shootout.

So overall I think that if you add a top WR, this offense can be a finished product. I am more than comfortable with Pettigrew and Fauria at TE. Fauria isn't an every down player, but he is a mismatch that can be utilized in the right situation that can add a lot of value to us. Offense can always be addressed again in the future, but I think the improvement of Tate and another WR should be more than enough for our offense to take a significatn step forward.



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SUre, the Broncos are still really good if they just add Welker last year, but having Julius Thomas was pretty damn helpful too. Yes, the offense is fine and should be elite with just one addition. But what if you have an injury to Bush or Johnson(both have some issues in the department) or what if your rookie WR isn't ready to produce, as is often the case? I think adding excess talent just in case is a smart idea. Not just on offense.

Fair Broncos comparison but they also had a QB who is masterful with his ability to involve and utilize all of his weapons. The Broncos also don't have Calvin. So while I respect the comparison, I think it's kind of flawed because it's simply not the same offense. The bronco's also don't utilize their RBs in the passing game like we do.

If injuries happen it will hurt, no doubt about that. But your point only solidifies my point about addressing the defense because we are way more thin their. What if we lose Tulloch, or Suh, or Quinn etc. There is no one there to step in. If we lose bush then Bell gets more reps and Leshoure starts playing or Riddick. If we lose Calvin we'll still have 2 WRs who are good, and we can rely more on our RBs. The offense will have options there to still be average. You can't say that for the defense.
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Old 05-02-2014, 02:06 PM    (permalink
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I like some of our defensive depth. We do need another LB,DE and S though.

I'm not saying to prioritize offense exclusively or anything, but I think you go BPA and I also think we're at the point in building our team where we have the luxury of saying, where can we be dominant with one or two reasonable additions.
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Old 05-02-2014, 02:09 PM    (permalink
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Also, Fauria has shown nothing and Pettigrew is average. I think we rank in the bottom 3rd of the league for TE talent and that's not something I'm cool with as a strategy. I think we can get by for the year, but it doesn't mean we have to or should.

Fauria averaged 1 catch a game(18 in 16 games). He had 5 of his 7 TDs in the first 8 games, 3 in one game. He had 6 games where he had zero catches. He's an interesting gimmick, but team's figured him out and we have no idea if he will or even can adjust to give us more. He also can't block, at all.
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Old 05-02-2014, 03:02 PM    (permalink
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I like some of our defensive depth. We do need another LB,DE and S though.

I'm not saying to prioritize offense exclusively or anything, but I think you go BPA and I also think we're at the point in building our team where we have the luxury of saying, where can we be dominant with one or two reasonable additions.
I agree that if the choice is between elite WR/TE prospect and good S/CB/other need prospect then you take the WR/TE. However, I see those positions as being pretty far down our list of priorities (TE not being a primary position and us already having 2 good WRs and this being a very deep class for WRs) so all things being equal I'd rather address other positions. I think the general disagreements are coming from differing views on the individual grades of players and not the fundamental ideas of draft strategy. I don't like taking Ebron at #10 because I don't see him as an "elite' TE prospect, not because I disagree with the idea of taking an elite TE prospect at #10.
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Old 05-02-2014, 03:28 PM    (permalink
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So overall I think that if you add a top WR, this offense can be a finished product. I am more than comfortable with Pettigrew and Fauria at TE. Fauria isn't an every down player, but he is a mismatch that can be utilized in the right situation that can add a lot of value to us. Offense can always be addressed again in the future, but I think the improvement of Tate and another WR should be more than enough for our offense to take a significatn step forward.
See, I think our worst starters right now are Pettigrew and our third receiver.
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Old 05-02-2014, 04:16 PM    (permalink
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See, I think our worst starters right now are Pettigrew and our third receiver.
On the entire team or just on offense?

I agree that on the offense those would be our 2 worst starters. Maybe on the entire team as well, the difference is that you can be a very good team with weaknesses at those positions. A hole at CB or Safety or LB is highlighted a lot more.
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Old 05-02-2014, 10:41 PM    (permalink
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I agree that if the choice is between elite WR/TE prospect and good S/CB/other need prospect then you take the WR/TE. However, I see those positions as being pretty far down our list of priorities (TE not being a primary position and us already having 2 good WRs and this being a very deep class for WRs) so all things being equal I'd rather address other positions. I think the general disagreements are coming from differing views on the individual grades of players and not the fundamental ideas of draft strategy. I don't like taking Ebron at #10 because I don't see him as an "elite' TE prospect, not because I disagree with the idea of taking an elite TE prospect at #10.
I have to agree, I seriously doubt they resign Pettigrew if TE was a priority and a solid #3 WR can be had in round 2 in this draft.

CB/S would make the most sense and perhaps we trade back a couple of spots if that is the direction we go, so the value matches the pick plus we get an extra pick.. We simply do not have a stud in the DB group and that will always put us under the gun, late in close games.
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Old 05-03-2014, 11:02 AM    (permalink
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See, I think our worst starters right now are Pettigrew and our third receiver.
Me too, and its not close IMO.
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Old 05-03-2014, 11:22 AM    (permalink
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I have to agree, I seriously doubt they resign Pettigrew if TE was a priority and a solid #3 WR can be had in round 2 in this draft.

CB/S would make the most sense and perhaps we trade back a couple of spots if that is the direction we go, so the value matches the pick plus we get an extra pick.. We simply do not have a stud in the DB group and that will always put us under the gun, late in close games.
This isn't the 80s. Having a Pettigrew type doesn't preclude you from adding another TE, especially one who can play WR.

Of course you can add a 3rd WR in round 2, but its going to player who is far less valuable on your board and who has a far lesser chance of NFL success. Obviously you go in with an optimistic attitude, but you have to be realistic too. You can't just assume you'll find a starting caliber player later. You could also just as easily get Ebron/Beckham plus Mcgill/Gaines as you could Gilbert/Dennard plus Matthews/Moncrief and I'm not sure one is better than the other necessarily.

Neither WR or TE is a huge need, but Mayhew and teams drafting in the top 10 in general don't draft on need. You might avoid a position if it is simply too full to fit another guy on your roster or utilize him properly at any time in the near future, but there might not be a positon other than QB you can say that about on our roster.

Also, not having enough mismatches and RZ threats will put you under the gun late in games too.
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Old 05-03-2014, 12:08 PM    (permalink
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This isn't the 80s. Having a Pettigrew type doesn't preclude you from adding another TE, especially one who can play WR.

Of course you can add a 3rd WR in round 2, but its going to player who is far less valuable on your board and who has a far lesser chance of NFL success. Obviously you go in with an optimistic attitude, but you have to be realistic too. You can't just assume you'll find a starting caliber player later. You could also just as easily get Ebron/Beckham plus Mcgill/Gaines as you could Gilbert/Dennard plus Matthews/Moncrief and I'm not sure one is better than the other necessarily.

Neither WR or TE is a huge need, but Mayhew and teams drafting in the top 10 in general don't draft on need. You might avoid a position if it is simply too full to fit another guy on your roster or utilize him properly at any time in the near future, but there might not be a positon other than QB you can say that about on our roster.

Also, not having enough mismatches and RZ threats will put you under the gun late in games too.
The one thing I'll say is that missing on a CB will likely hurt this team more than missing on a #3 WR or TE. Similarly, we would benefit more from getting a top CB than getting a high-end #3 WR.

I do agree about taking BPA though. If there's a CB/S and a WR/TE with similar grades you take the CB/S though IMO.
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Old 05-03-2014, 12:30 PM    (permalink
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On the entire team or just on offense?

I agree that on the offense those would be our 2 worst starters. Maybe on the entire team as well, the difference is that you can be a very good team with weaknesses at those positions. A hole at CB or Safety or LB is highlighted a lot more.
I think few positions can make a bigger difference on a team than a great tight end. It adds depth to an offense.

I don't think we particularly have a hole, as a starter, at CB, Safety or (especially) linebacker. I am, however, all in favor of boosting depth at the position. I'm all for adding three defensive backs and a linebacker later in the draft.

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I have to agree, I seriously doubt they resign Pettigrew if TE was a priority and a solid #3 WR can be had in round 2 in this draft.
Look at Pettigrew's contract. We can cut him next year with ease. That's not a commitment.
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