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Old 04-26-2012, 04:35 PM    (permalink
onejayhawk
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Fantastic except for glaring omission: Russell Wilson. Magically make im 6 inches taller and RG III is the 3rd pick. How much you discount him due to the height is an issue, but I would spend a late 2nd on him.

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Old 04-26-2012, 04:42 PM    (permalink
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Great great post man, I agree with a lot of what you said......expecially the Sanu part.
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Old 04-26-2012, 05:00 PM    (permalink
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Very nice write-up. Totally agree on Marvin Jones. I like a lot about this receiver class, but he's a guy I'd think a number of teams would like to jump on tomorrow.
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Old 04-26-2012, 05:07 PM    (permalink
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For starters, I greatly appreciate all of the kind sentiment and discussion. The post kind of took on a life of its own and ended up much longer than I originally anticipated. Thanks to all those that labored through the length, syntax, and punctuation errors as I sort of fell asleep at the keyboard.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBanger View Post
First of all, this is incredible.

My concern for Fletcher Cox is his sub 300 frame. Only Dorsey and McCoy have cracked my top 10 that were in the 298 range. Both were top 5 players for me. I thought they were the exception to the rule and both are looking disappointing. How about Jerry from Ole Miss a couple years back? Cox looks stronger at the point with better leverage but his size worries me. I think they are similar. But Cox just isn't my preference. I was a huge fan of Wilfork, Hampton, Ngata, Dareus, Suh and Raji. I think Poe is the gem of this class, and I think will belong in that group. His rawness is a concern, but his size / athleticism / strength / work ethic should overcome that. In 5 years people could look back at this draft and scratch their heads about why he fell (assuming he falls out of the top 15).

Mike Martin, Jaye Howard and Brandon Thompson will be great value picks. I think they are all going to be very solid pros.

As for the WRs, Floyd is the most prototypical of the buch. He has that Fitzgerald type size / leaping ability / body control and hands that is simply rare. I think he's been underrated for quite some time. I think he's closer to an elite talent then he's been made out to be. I understand the character concerns and he should drop a little, but I think he's the best WR in the draft.

Blackmon is a notch below physically and doesnt have quite the upside. Still a great prospect and a little safer, but not the same kind of potential.

Stephen Hill could develop into the best WR from the class and I wouldn't be surprised one bit. GT had been putting out some supremely gifted WRs, albeit raw ones. Hill is easily the #3 WR in the class and not too far off of the top 2.

There is some good depth to the WR class. Also like Marvin Jones. Natural athlete with good potential.
Iíve got a stronger preference for stouter defensive tackles as well, but Iíve fallen into liking him despite those personal prejudices. At this point, Iím a bigger fan of Cox than I was Dorsey in 2007. Cox has nice, natural bend and a surprising blend of strength and short-area explosiveness. From what Iíve seen, he plays stronger than his size suggests and I havenít seen anything to question his motor. He gets a little bump with me because heís versatile. I have a soft spot for swing linemen and Cox lined up both inside and outside at Mississippi St with success.

As for Floyd, I would agree he has a higher upside than Blackmon in a vacuum based on those attributes, but I donít see those attributes at the level of Larry Fitzgerald. (And, for the record, Iím not sure you were making a direct comparison between those two. Iím not trying to put words into your mouth.) The thrust of my argument for Blackmon is that heís got a higher upside than heís given credit for. I donít see a strict, grounded receiver. His catching radius is better than that.

As for Stephen Hill, as a pure H/W/S prospect, heís got salivating upside. Kendall Wright and Stephen Hill are close to me. I love Hillís potential, but his exposure to the route tree is close to high school level. Iím curious to hear what his work ethic is like. If heís a hard worker, and heís shown some naturalness when working with him in pre-draft interviews, his stock would elevate for me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmarq83 View Post
Cudders, I agree with you on most of this, especially the parts on Kendricks, Marvin Jones, Ingram, and Dre Kirkpatrick, but I simply can't agree with you on Poe. His lack of production may not hurt his draft position, but it should. People tend to overestimate the value of good coaching can have on prospects. Poe is this raw and unproductive after 4 years of college, where they undoubtably were doing the same kind of drills to correct his hand technique, height out of his stance, pass rush repertoire, and other areas. People liken him to Albert Haynesworth and Haloti Ngata, but the truth is as prospects they both were far more productive on the collegiate level than Poe was. Even someone with extremely average production like Richard Seymour flashed enough to warrant a high pick unlike Poe. As of right now Poe has neither asserted himself in the run game or become an impact pass rusher. He's easily single blocked by a lot of C-USA OL's, and even if he could make the same impact right away in the NFL that he did in college, he wouldn't be worth the high pick.

With Poe it's all measurables, which is ok considering a lot of times on the DL that is an enormous factor, but there are pertinent questions as to why he wasn't successful in college, and people over simplify the situation by saying it will all be solved by pro coaching. The fact that he had as large of an athletic advantage as he did, yet still was pretty much JAG is pretty telling regardless of how raw he is.
The college production vs. translatable tools argument is quite circular. Each team has different philosophies on the subject and both can build effective NFL rosters with time.

Personally, I tend to be more of an advocate for the translatable tools camp. In general, prospects succeed in the NFL because theyíve got baseline abilities for sustained success at their position. Poe possesses all of those critical attributes. Heís got the mammoth size of a two-gapper, but the suddenness of a one-gapper. In this draft, heís the classic example of George Youngís famed Planet Theory. There are only so many men with that kind of size that can really move. Thatís why his production is irrelevant in terms of his stock. If you want one of the few freak athletes, youíre going to have to take that risk.

That said, thereís two things I would want to see from Poe during the vetting process. One, I would want to hear from the people that have spent time around him and find out what kind of a worker he is. And two, and most important, I would want a defensive line coachís opinion as he is put through drills in the pre-draft process. During those drills, those coaches will point out errors in techniques and make an attempt to correct the issue. Thatís not a mistake. Teams want to see how well that prospect responds to coaching. Poe is raw. Thereís no question about it. If he shows that he can improve with some coaching though, his fascinating combination of size and athleticism makes him tough to pass on. But, if he struggles to adapt his game to the coaching he receives, then itís a serious red flag concerning the realization of that potential.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
With you on a lot. Especially:

- The Trent Richardson argument.
- Mychal Kendricks
- Lamar Miller
- Fletcher Cox (but let's admit, these penetrating DTs who just jump out on film in college are extremely risky for some reason).

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on Bruce Irvin. I agree with you on Mercilus. Jones and Coples too. Coples' issues have nothing to do with football, which is what makes him scary both ways.

I disagree with your stances on Poe and Givens. And Melvin Ingram scares me in a 3-4 as well as a 4-3.
From the limited amount Iíve seen on Irvin, I see a supreme athlete without much seasoning as a pass rusher, which is fine. Polish can set the floor as a pass rusher. But athleticism is a huge part in determining the ceiling. Much like I said about Poe, the variable is how confident I am in his desire to become the best he can be.

As for Givens, itís a personal preference. His hands are inconsistent and I donít see much potential for them to improve. He has the smallest hands of all draftable prospects and, as a result, I see a body-catcher. I am very skeptical of body-catchers in general. The other aspects of his game are intriguing, I admit.

Quote:
Originally Posted by scottyboy View Post
cudders doesnt like sanu? ****.

'scuse me while i go cut my wrists
Quote:
Originally Posted by scottyboy View Post
cudders has to be wrong eventually...or at least once in his life...right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperPacker View Post
I wouldn't bet on it.
Actually, not only have I been wrong before, but Iím almost positive that Iíll be wrong again!

Some clarification on Sanu. I donít think heís worthless. I just consider him more of a scheme-dependent receiver thatís closer to a third-to-fourth round value over a second-rounder. I donít see suddenness and heís a little robotic as a route runner at this point. Now, thatís not writing off his entire pro career. Because, like Avant, I could see him being a strong chain-mover underneath for a team with more explosive, vertical components around him. His skill set is conducive to filling a role like that. Again, I want to stress that I think this is a deep receiver class. Sanu wouldnít be one of the top ten talents that I would take, but heís legit prospect and there are elements of his game that I do love. (See: His tenaciousness, his underneath potential, his toughness after the catch.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATLDirtyBirds View Post
You hit on a lot of points I've been making for the last couple of weeks/months, so there isn't a ton for me to challenge you on. 2 things though:

I like Marvin Jones as well, but I'm curious as to what you think of Greg Childs? I personally like Childs more as I feel he brings somewhat similar qualities, with an extra dimension of athletic ability.

On Kuechly: I'd argue he's not even the best LB prospect in the class. Give me Lavonte David.
I wouldnít have Lavonte David over Kuechly, but Iím with you on him. He is one of the primary reasons I wrote the part about legitimate 4-3 talent slipping in the draft due to the prevalence of the 3-4. He get pushed down because he doesnít have the requisite bulk to about half the league, but some 4-3 team will love his run-and-hit skill set.

As for Childs, I like his complement of tools and think he will come off the board sooner than most expect because of them. I donít think heís quite as field fast as his times though. Still like Jones more though. More smoothness and fewer inconsistencies from what Iíve seen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brown Leader View Post
On Osweiler. The thing that gets unmentioned is the fact that all the guy did this post season is work to try and fix his delivery/mechanics. It's why he didn't throw anywhere till the end of March. And by all accounts he showed much better mechanics when he finally did throw at his personal pro day.

Biggest issue I've seen and read about Lindley is his scattershot accuracy. And it stems from chronically slow feet so good luck trying to correct his footwork.

I'm not the biggest fan of Michael Irvin as an analyst but his on field segment with Blackmon this past week was outstanding. What was surprising was how much bigger Irvin looked than Blackmon, but anyway.... Through the course of the drills you got a sense of what Justin's demeanor will be like when he's with a demanding position coach. Fair to say, he's going to need a lot of work. He strikes me as a naturally talented guy that just stepped on the field, in that offense, and dominated. I've got questions about how much of a grinder he is.

On Sanu. The thing about him is how naturally strong he is. I remeber a play from this past season where a guy went to put a kill shot on Sanu and knocked himself out the game. Sanu was fine. You brought up Avant but Sanu is much more physically imposing while being about as quick and shifty as he is.

Everything else I'm with you. Although I'm not as confident about Kirkpatrick at FS. He's had some good hits but I'm not sure just how reliable a tackler he is.
Itís encouraging to see that Osweilerís mechanics improved, and I admit that I hadnít followed up on him, but thatís not enough to convince me. Throwing in a t-shirt and shorts is a stark difference than throwing in a muddied pocket. Even more so for Osweiler because heís struggled against pressure, too. He needs a lot of functional space to throw. When the pocket is constricted or clipped, he becomes rigid and doesnít flow to less cluttered areas.

When talking about reworking mechanics, it takes about 3,000 to 5,000 repetitions for a muscle to overwrite old habits and memorize new movement. Thatís an insane workload that a quarterback must shoulder if he wants to improve his mechanics. And thatís between juggling all of his other responsibilities. Also, consider then that he now must tweak it for all the different movements that will be performed on the field. And then itís multiplied for all the mechanical issues present. Fixing mechanics is underrated in terms of how difficult it is. Because a lot of people can look good in practice and revert back to form in game action.

As for Lindley, his mechanical issues are largely limited to his footwork. And I wouldnít classify his feet as chronically slow. His base fluctuates, sure, and that negatively impacts his accuracy, but I donít think his foot speed is a problem per se. Iím not saying Lindley is a finished product either. He absolutely needs some coaching, too. I just believe that Lindley is a better value at this point.
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