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Old 05-10-2012, 01:56 PM    (permalink
killxswitch
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Default Lots of 1st Round QB Talent in 2013. Who Needs Them?

In early 2013 mocks I usually see 3-5 QBs being taken in the first round. That would be great news for teams that already have their QB, as that pushes talent down artificially.

But are there really 5 teams that would take a QB in the 1st?

AFCE - Buffalo is the only possibility and I think they'll stick with Fitzpatrick

AFCN - set at QB

AFCS - set at QB

AFCW - KC and Oakland are possibilities but neither are a slam dunk.

NFCE - set at QB

NFCN - set at QB

NFCS - if Freeman responds well to the new coaching staff the South is set at QB.

NFCW - Seattle is the only team that flat out needs a starting QB (I completely forgot about Flynn, derp). AZ may stick with Kolb or Skelton or whoever they like the most. SF can win with Alex Smith.

So at most, you have 5 teams that would possibly spend a 1st rounder on a QB. IMO, you can whittle that down to two because I think only Seattle and one of KC, Oakland, or Buffalo will change starters.

We often talk about how rare franchise QBs are in the NFL, but with the changes in rules or how they are enforced, it seems like maybe teams have about caught up and the NFL as a whole is not as QB-needy as we vaguely assume it is.
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Old 05-10-2012, 02:12 PM    (permalink
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If we play the if game, which is kind of needed in this scenario, there is plenty more that can be added. The Jets if Sanchez and Tebow fail stands out. You say the 49ers can win with Alex Smith, but what if they don't win this season? What if they win despite him? Are they really going to pass on a potential franchise QB like Tyler Wilson or Landry Jones? Doubtful.

The Jaguars are set at quarterback? Did you watch Blaine Gabbert last year?
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Old 05-10-2012, 02:29 PM    (permalink
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My take:

Buffalo: The went all out this offseason to make the playoffs. If Fitzpatrick continues to play like he did during the last half of the 2011 season and the Bills don't improve, Gailey could be fired and Fitzpatrick could be kicked to the curb.

New York Jets: The Jets obviously aren't high on Sanchez, as evidenced by bringing in Tebow. I think that situation will implode and both QBs are going to look bad. If it is as bad as I think it will be (six wins), the Jets front office could become tired of Rex Ryan's talking and kick him to the curb. New coach, new QB.

Tampa Bay: This depends on Josh Freeman. If Tampa bounces back this season and is competitive, he'll stay. But if he repeats last season, he'll have three bad seasons out of four in the NFL. That is not a good track record. He could definitely be replaced if the Bucs falter again.

Jacksonville: Many people expect Jacksonville to be bad this season. Like first overall bad. If that is the case, Gene Smith will undoubtedly be fired. A new General Manager would certainly draft a QB.

San Francisco: Alex Smith had one good year during his seven-year career. If the 49ers take a step back and Keapernick doesn't show nice progression, the Niners definitely draft a QB.

Arizona: The Cardinals thought about replacing Kolb/Skelton this offseason. If they continue to be below average, Arizona will absolutely replace them in 2013.

Seattle: Nobody knows how good Flynn will be. If he gets Seattle to the playoffs, then of course the Seahawks won't draft a QB. But if he looks like Kolb in his first season as a starter, he'll be replaced. Remember, there were substantial rumors that Seattle would have drafted Tannehill had he been there.

St. Louis: This one is unpopular. But what if Sam Bradford has a bad/injury-filled season again? Jeff Fisher didn't draft him And if you have consecutive seasons drafting in the top-five, you should look at getting a new QB. So they could look at replacing him.

Oakland: This goes without saying. Carson Palmer does not look like he has much left in his tank at all. Leinart is the backup. So unless Pryor suddenly learns how to play QB in the NFL, they'll be looking for a new QB in 2013.

Kansas City: Chiefs fans wanted to replace Cassel this season. If he doesn't look any better in 2012, those calls will continue next year.

You say that there are only 5 teams at most that would be looking at QBs. I count ten. You could even throw in Minnesota (if Ponder looks awful and the Vikings finish with a top-five pick again) and New Orleans (depending on how the Drew Brees contract situation progresses).
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Old 05-10-2012, 02:56 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Big Bird View Post
If we play the if game, which is kind of needed in this scenario, there is plenty more that can be added. The Jets if Sanchez and Tebow fail stands out. You say the 49ers can win with Alex Smith, but what if they don't win this season? What if they win despite him? Are they really going to pass on a potential franchise QB like Tyler Wilson or Landry Jones? Doubtful.

The Jaguars are set at quarterback? Did you watch Blaine Gabbert last year?
Sanchez just got a big extension, so I doubt they cut him loose after this year. I think Jim Harbaugh is confident/arrogant enough in his abilities that he'll be fine without a top QB pick. He may be right, too. You really think Landry Jones is a potential franchise QB?

And no I don't believe in Gabbert at all. But I don't think Gene Smith will be fired anytime soon, and Smith is locked in with Gabbert as his QB of the future. But it's hard to know what to expect with the new owner.
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Old 05-10-2012, 03:03 PM    (permalink
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These starting quarterbacks probably need to show improvement in order to prevent competition from being added:

Arizona Cardinals - Kevin Kolb
Buffalo Bills - Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jacksonville Jaguars - Blaine Gabbert
Kansas City Chiefs - Matt Cassel
New York Jets - Mark Sanchez
Oakland Raiders - Carson Palmer
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Josh Freeman

In bold are the most likely to be replaced.
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Old 05-10-2012, 03:06 PM    (permalink
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My take:

Buffalo: The went all out this offseason to make the playoffs. If Fitzpatrick continues to play like he did during the last half of the 2011 season and the Bills don't improve, Gailey could be fired and Fitzpatrick could be kicked to the curb.
I think the Bills will be 2nd in the division and possibly a wild card team. I think with a full offseason to really install Gailey's system the offense will look better, and the defense should be damn good this year.

Quote:
New York Jets: The Jets obviously aren't high on Sanchez, as evidenced by bringing in Tebow. I think that situation will implode and both QBs are going to look bad. If it is as bad as I think it will be (six wins), the Jets front office could become tired of Rex Ryan's talking and kick him to the curb. New coach, new QB.
Sanchez might actually benefit from someone other than Ryan running the team. The Jets just gave him a big extension so I doubt he's going anywhere.

Quote:
Tampa Bay: This depends on Josh Freeman. If Tampa bounces back this season and is competitive, he'll stay. But if he repeats last season, he'll have three bad seasons out of four in the NFL. That is not a good track record. He could definitely be replaced if the Bucs falter again.
I think the coaching and culture change is going to help him. No more of this youngry crap.

Quote:
Jacksonville: Many people expect Jacksonville to be bad this season. Like first overall bad. If that is the case, Gene Smith will undoubtedly be fired. A new General Manager would certainly draft a QB.
If Gene Smith goes you could be right. I am not sure what Khan will do, no frame of reference for him. With the new weapons this year Gabbert will have zero excuses if he flops.

Quote:
San Francisco: Alex Smith had one good year during his seven-year career. If the 49ers take a step back and Keapernick doesn't show nice progression, the Niners definitely draft a QB.
See above, I don't think Harbaugh thinks a 1st round QB is necessary. I also don't see them doing poorly enough to be in position to draft a top 2-3 QB, which means giving up picks.
Quote:
Arizona: The Cardinals thought about replacing Kolb/Skelton this offseason. If they continue to be below average, Arizona will absolutely replace them in 2013.
They thought about it when Peyton Manning was a possibility. They also went 7-2 to end the season last year. We'll see what happens with a full offseason of preparation.
Quote:
Seattle: Nobody knows how good Flynn will be. If he gets Seattle to the playoffs, then of course the Seahawks won't draft a QB. But if he looks like Kolb in his first season as a starter, he'll be replaced. Remember, there were substantial rumors that Seattle would have drafted Tannehill had he been there.
This was my bad, Flynn is their guy for the next couple of years.
Quote:
St. Louis: This one is unpopular. But what if Sam Bradford has a bad/injury-filled season again? Jeff Fisher didn't draft him And if you have consecutive seasons drafting in the top-five, you should look at getting a new QB. So they could look at replacing him.
I don't completely disagree here, as I have never been a believer in Bradford.

Quote:
Oakland: This goes without saying. Carson Palmer does not look like he has much left in his tank at all. Leinart is the backup. So unless Pryor suddenly learns how to play QB in the NFL, they'll be looking for a new QB in 2013.
With McKenzie in charge you are probably right. Palmer will probably not stick around.

Quote:
Kansas City: Chiefs fans wanted to replace Cassel this season. If he doesn't
look any better in 2012, those calls will continue next year.
Pioli seems a lot less interested in that than Chiefs fans do.

Quote:
You say that there are only 5 teams at most that would be looking at QBs. I count ten. You could even throw in Minnesota (if Ponder looks awful and the Vikings finish with a top-five pick again) and New Orleans (depending on how the Drew Brees contract situation progresses).
So it could be as many as 10 or as few as one or two. With all the apparent 1st round talent at other positions coming this way, I wonder if teams are really going to reach in the 1st for QBs like they have the last few years.
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Old 05-10-2012, 03:39 PM    (permalink
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Dallas won't pass on a QB if one falls to them at Pick 32.
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Old 05-10-2012, 03:42 PM    (permalink
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Pioli seems a lot less interested in that than Chiefs fans do.
Untrue. The Chiefs visited with almost every QB prospect to come out this year and tried to sign Peyton. They were also reportedly trying hard to trade up to select Tannehill.

I think Pioli knows what the entire fanbase and KC media knows: Cassel isn't a long term solution. I would be shocked to see us passing on a QB in 2013 if we have the ability to draft someone. Cassel turns 30 in a week and obviously isn't a "long term" solution to the QB problem in KC.

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Dallas won't pass on a QB if one falls to them at Pick 32.
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Old 05-10-2012, 03:51 PM    (permalink
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It'll likely come down to who has a bad season.

Like someone else said, the Bills have done good with Fitz, but he's not really a franchise QB. If they get a shot at one, I think they'd likely take it.

A lot of teams already are "grooming" replacements, Denver has one. 49ers have one, Titans have one.

On my list I'd have, a lot of these have "if" highly associated with them. Some may not look likely, but then again we didn't think the colts would be taking luck.
KC
OAK
NYJ
BUF
HOU
JAX
AZ
STL
SF
DAL
NO
TB
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Old 05-10-2012, 03:53 PM    (permalink
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Untrue. The Chiefs visited with almost every QB prospect to come out this year and tried to sign Peyton. They were also reportedly trying hard to trade up to select Tannehill.

I think Pioli knows what the entire fanbase and KC media knows: Cassel isn't a long term solution. I would be shocked to see us passing on a QB in 2013 if we have the ability to draft someone. Cassel turns 30 in a week and obviously isn't a "long term" solution to the QB problem in KC.
Teams meet with players they have zero chance of getting. And like with the Cards, meeting with Peyton Manning is not indicative of wanting to get a new QB, it's indicative of wanting one of the greatest QBs of all time to play for your team. Big difference.
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Old 05-10-2012, 03:57 PM    (permalink
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We'll see what Cassel does this season, he should put up 3200yards, 25 tds, 10ints with the talent he has on offense.

Those numbers don't look that impressive, but I think they'll still try to run a run-first offense
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Old 05-10-2012, 04:47 PM    (permalink
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I really want someone like Wilson to fall to Oakland.
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Old 05-10-2012, 05:22 PM    (permalink
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Teams meet with players they have zero chance of getting. And like with the Cards, meeting with Peyton Manning is not indicative of wanting to get a new QB, it's indicative of wanting one of the greatest QBs of all time to play for your team. Big difference.
Absolutely, but following the way Pioli has drafted and met with players in the past, it wasn't just due diligence. He was actively trying to move up for Tannehill, that much I'm certain about.

And I still don't believe Ricky Stanzi is the answer, so.
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Old 05-10-2012, 07:01 PM    (permalink
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People forget that the 9ers drafted Kapernik in the high 2nd round last year as a project QB, and Harbaugh has a freakish track record of developing QBs. Kaepernicks gonna be a flat out stud IMO.
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Old 05-10-2012, 07:37 PM    (permalink
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My take:

San Francisco: Alex Smith had one good year during his seven-year career. If the 49ers take a step back and Keapernick doesn't show nice progression, the Niners definitely draft a QB.
Multiple "ifs" would add all 32 teams to this list.
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Old 05-10-2012, 08:02 PM    (permalink
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Multiple "ifs" would add all 32 teams to this list.
Neither of those ifs are that big of a stretch though. Of course I could say "If Aaron Rodgers has a career ending injury the Packers will be drafting a QB next year." But I only wanted to include reasonable ifs. And it is certainly reasonable, considering he has been below average for nearly his entire career, that Alex Smith takes a step back.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 05-10-2012, 08:16 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by raiderz4life View Post
I really want someone like Wilson to fall to Oakland.
You don't have any 1st round picks unless you meant the 2nd round..
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Old 05-10-2012, 08:17 PM    (permalink
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Lots of teams will need QBs, because every year there is a new bottom 10 QBs.
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Old 05-10-2012, 08:18 PM    (permalink
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Lots of teams will need QBs, because every year there is a new bottom 10 QBs.
Exactly. More years than not, one of the "rising stars" lays an egg and his team gives up on him.
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Old 05-10-2012, 08:18 PM    (permalink
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You don't have any 1st round picks unless you meant the 2nd round..
They only lose their 1st round pick if Carson Palmer leads them to the AFCCG. If not, it's just their 2nd.
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Old 05-10-2012, 08:23 PM    (permalink
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They only lose their 1st round pick if Carson Palmer leads them to the AFCCG. If not, it's just their 2nd.
My mistake. And still an awful trade..
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“We know that no matter the adversity, be it the lockout, be it the suspension or be it a hurricane, our men will pull together and defend the honor of this city. We’ve shown we’ve been able to do that.” - Jabari Greer
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Old 05-10-2012, 08:31 PM    (permalink
Leon Sandcastle
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A lot of teams have over reached for QB's the past 2 years that the Bills, Chiefs are sitting kinda pretty.

But it all depends on who declares next year. We know Tyler Wilson, Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, EJ Manuel, Mike Glennon and Geno Smith will be available but what happens with Tyler Bray, Logan Thomas, Casey Pachall, Aaron Murray?

If two of those underclassmen declare we could be talking about 5 QB's in the Top 15 and 8 in the Top 42. The new CBA will allow a lot of teams to trade up to get their guy like we saw this year.
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Old 05-10-2012, 09:43 PM    (permalink
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We're not going to know until after the season.
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Old 05-10-2012, 10:06 PM    (permalink
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With the new rookie contracts, a 1st round quarterback isn't as big of a commitment as it once was. If guys like Christian Ponder and Sam Bradford take a step back this year, their teams will be picking high again and could move on.
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Old 05-10-2012, 10:21 PM    (permalink
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The Eagles lowkey need a franchise QB. Vick is going to be 33 at the start of next season and the Eagles have Nick Foles, Mike Kafka and Trent Edwards waiting in the wings. The Eagles typically like to have a future QB lined up. They've been beating around the QB bush the past two years but they haven't pulled the trigger yet.
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