Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

[Monomach]

Originally Posted by Black Bolt

Like i said, his ceiling is Brad Johnson. If you are making a case that Johnson's career was okay, then I would agree with you. Now where was Brad Johnson drafted again? I rest my case. When you are drafted in the top 15, you are expected to be more than Brad Johnson, which was my original point.

David Carr was the concensus #1 pick going into his final year. The entire time Carr was in Houston, everyone in the media was convinced that nothing was his fault because of his line. Well, that simply was not the case. Although the line was not good, the lack of protection exposed Carr's weaknesses- poise and decision making. I said that Locker's ceiling is Carr's because of his limitations with accuracy, happy feet and decision making. We will see, but so far, he's now what you guys have been claiming he is.

In a re-draft, Brad Johnson would definitely last until the ninth round. Uh-huh. If a guy's ceiling is Tom Brady...where was he drafted again? I rest my case.

Incidentally, disagree that his ceiling is BJ.

[Black Bolt]

Originally Posted by SuperMcGee

He's not good enough to be a top-7 pick, but if he falls to 9 you'd have to get the idea that there's something really wrong with him. So, you know, I'll take him.

He's not a top nine player, he's a top ten play.

[Black Bolt]

Originally Posted by Monomach

In a re-draft, Brad Johnson would definitely last until the ninth round. Uh-huh. If a guy's ceiling is Tom Brady...where was he drafted again? I rest my case.

Incidentally, disagree that his ceiling is BJ.

No one thought Brady's ceiling was that high at the time. Big Duh??

We aren't talking about Monday morning QBing QB draft picks. Draft prospects haven't played a lick of NFL football, so was are all essentially guessing at draft time. My guess is and was that Jake Locker's ceiling is around David Carr's until there is information to the contrary. Bottom line is Locker is high on altheticism, low on skill, but for some reason no one wants to say it.

[scottyboy]

Originally Posted by vidae

I literally just said that on twitter. No way can he go #1, but #2 is totes an acceptable place for him to go.



The draft is fine, people are stupid.

You said it to me! We're funny and internet buddies.

But yeah, this is great, I love the internet and over-reactions and vast swaying.

and putting the #1 overall pick on a pedestal.

[vidae]

Yeah, Geno isn't worth the first overall pick, but Shariff Floyd. I hate the draft.

[WCH]

Brad Johnson gets a lot of unjustified hate. In reality, he probably makes the list of Top 50 QBs in NFL history.

[kwilk103]

hasnt arrived to his pro day presser yet as hes still meeting with the jags; been almost an hour

[Monomach]

Originally Posted by Black Bolt

No one thought Brady's ceiling was that high at the time. Big Duh??

We aren't talking about Monday morning QBing QB draft picks. Draft prospects haven't played a lick of NFL football, so was are all essentially guessing at draft time. My guess is and was that Jake Locker's ceiling is around David Carr's until there is information to the contrary. Bottom line is Locker is high on altheticism, low on skill, but for some reason no one wants to say it.

No one thought Johnson's ceiling was that high at the time. Big duh?

[WCH]

I am very surprised that Geno Smith may be skyrocketing into the top 5. I am also very surprised that the Jags seem to have been full of **** when they were talking up Gabbert. What a surprising day.

[/sarcasm]

[Black Bolt]

Originally Posted by Black Bolt

Cha-Ching!!

But they went with the high rated player.

Damn, I couldn't find the post where I compared Geno Smith to Matt Ryan when he came out, but check this article out. I swear my real name isn't Eric Galko. Anyway, I was comparing how even in a year where there supposedly wasn't a QB worthy of going #1, the highest rated QB taken still went #3. But Geno Smith isn't worthy of going in the first round???

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/stor...rterback-class

The 2008 NFL draft stands out from other recent drafts. With just one projected first-round quarterback, viewed as a late first-round value and only a handful of offensive playmakers, that draft was viewed as heavy on linemen early, both offensive and defensive.

If that sounds familiar, it’s because it’s remarkably similar to this 2013 draft class. Luke Joeckel may be this class’s Jake Long. Barkevious Mingo may be this class’s Vernon Gholston. And for comparison’s sake, Geno Smith hopes to be this year’s Matt Ryan.

Most didn’t view Matt Ryan as worthy of a top-three pick, similar to the sentiments of many about Smith. Despite the criticism, Ryan proved those evaluations wrong, nearly reaching the Super Bowl in his fifth season. Geno Smith has that same potential. But Smith, like Ryan five years ago, has a ways to go to prove those doubters wrong. He’ll get a chance to improve his standing with NFL scouts, coaches and executives on Thursday at West Virginia’s pro day.

After West Virginia’s 5-0 start to the season—including a win at Texas—Geno Smith was poised to go from “trendy sleeper” quarterback prospect to emerging star, with NFL teams drooling at the chance to draft him. With gaudy stats, consistent ball placement, lateral mobility and great anticipation in post-snap reads, Geno Smith seized the opportunity to wow on the stat sheet and on film early in his first and only Big 12 season.

But a 35-point loss at Texas Tech followed. Then a 41-point home loss to Kansas State. Then three more defeats. Suddenly, Smith wasn’t the Heisman favorite anymore and began to raise some doubts for QB-needy NFL teams. Smith finished the 2012 season admirably but lost to fellow 2013 draft prospect Ryan Nassib and Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Based on the stat sheet and record book, Smith showed he couldn’t handle pressure, that he didn’t have an NFL skill set at quarterback and didn’t have what it takes to be a franchise NFL quarterback.

But based on film, Smith not only remained a potential franchise quarterback but the best QB in this class.

Smith can wow with his arm and feet, but two of his best qualities have nothing to do with his arm strength or athleticism.. As I wrote in early October (http://www.optimumscouting.com/scout...d-top-10.html), his composure and confidence are what moved him up draft boards. Those characteristics not only can’t be taught but are rare qualities to find in a position that demands so much from a player.


Geno Smith could be this year's Matt Ryan, who wasn't a can't-miss prospect in 2008 but has developed into a top-tier QB. (AP Photo)Below the neck, Smith has everything a quarterback needs. His arm strength is more than good enough, as he hit on deep throws many times in 2012 thanks to speedy Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey at receiver. Smith’s anticipation and ball placement on 15-20 yard routes is excellent, as he’s one of the better passers in that area in recent drafts. His athleticism is obvious, but how he uses it is more impressive. He moves within the pocket smoothly, adjusts his body to elude pressure and works outside the pocket well. But he doesn’t run unless it’s completely necessary.

Making great strides from his junior to senior year, Geno Smith has become comfortable with who he is as a passer. He rarely forces passes and is developing a great understanding of touch, both vertically and the in-between levels.

Smith has a ways to go before he’s an NFL elite passer. He’ll need to clean up his footwork, especially in the pocket. He’ll need to work on driving off his back foot on shorter routes, especially if he begins to work under center more often. And he’ll need to adjust to the speed of the game, including his internal clock in the pocket and facing cornerbacks who won’t allow receivers to run past them.

His QB competitors in the 2013 class don’t have strong cases to overtake him. Matt Barkley of USC has concerns about his arm strength and athletic upside. Nassib doesn’t have an NFL-ready deep ball and isn’t consistent in his decision making. Tyler Wilson of Arkansas is a gutsy passer, but a poor 2012 season is a concern. Florida State’s E.J. Manuel is fun to project in a zone read scheme, but he’s far from a finished product. For most teams, Smith is the top prospect in a mediocre class.

Since 2001, a quarterback has been taken among the top four picks in every draft class. With the Jaguars, Raiders and Eagles all in need of a franchise quarterback and drafting second, third and fourth, it’s hard to imagine Smith falling to No. 5 overall.

However, fans of QB-needy teams are wondering: Does the West Virginia passer have the upside of Newton, Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin?

The answer is no. Geno Smith isn’t any of those guys. He’s not as physical or possess as strong of an arm as Newton. He’s not as savvy as Luck. He’s not as fast as Griffin.

So what can we expect from Smith? Here’s the best way I can put it for NFL fans who love comparisons: He’s Alex Smith now and Aaron Rodgers (minus some arm strength) in the future. He can be an athletic game manager early in his career, with the upside of being a mobile, composed and productive passer in the future.

Smith may not be a flashy top-four selection and still has much to prove on his path to becoming an NFL franchise quarterback—including at his pro day Thursday. But if the Jaguars, Raiders or Eagles take a risk with Geno Smith the way Atlanta did with Ryan in 2008, they could quickly reap the rewards of going all in on Smith.

[Black Bolt]

Originally Posted by Monomach

No one thought Johnson's ceiling was that high at the time. Big duh?

How high was it? He made himself a decent starter. It's not like he reach Rich Gannon level's of play.

Johnson was a hard worker and pretty deceptively athletic. I'm sure his ceiling was thought to be reasonably high. But he was never the sort of QB that could carry a team and was known as exhibit A for a game manager.

Don't make him out to be something that he wasn't. It's not that his ceiling was that high, it's that he actually reached his ceiling when most QBs drafted into the league don't. Akili Smith's ceiling was through the roof.

[Black Bolt]

Originally Posted by WCH

I am very surprised that Geno Smith may be skyrocketing into the top 5. I am also very surprised that the Jags seem to have been full of **** when they were talking up Gabbert. What a surprising day.

[/sarcasm]

Are you surprised because it's Smith or because of what the pundits were saying about him not being first round talent? The latter was a bunch of pure BS.

[Black Bolt]

Originally Posted by kwilk103

hasnt arrived to his pro day presser yet as hes still meeting with the jags; been almost an hour

Raiders are up in that piece as well, correct?

[Black Bolt]

Originally Posted by WCH

Brad Johnson gets a lot of unjustified hate. In reality, he probably makes the list of Top 50 QBs in NFL history.

If you truly understand my point, I was not hating on him. But you would agree that Johnson, even if re-drafted, would go nowhere near the top 15.

[kwilk103]

Originally Posted by Black Bolt

Raiders are up in that piece as well, correct?

29/32 teams were there

dallas, seattle, and cant remember the other one werent in attendance

remember though, austin and bailey were there as well working out

[gpngc]

The Jags won't take him at 2. They're figuring out if they want to chance it that he'll be there at 33 or if they'll invest multiple picks on a trade up.

[vidae]

Geno isn't getting out of the top 10. If anyone thinks he'll be there in the second round they're out of their minds.

[gpngc]

Originally Posted by vidae

Geno isn't getting out of the top 10. If anyone thinks he'll be there in the second round they're out of their minds.

I think it's more likely he falls out of first than goes top 10.

Way too many question marks to take in the top ten but it only takes one.

[nobodyinparticular]

Originally Posted by vidae

Geno isn't getting out of the top 10. If anyone thinks he'll be there in the second round they're out of their minds.

Burton Guster agrees with you.

[BallerT1215]

Geno Smith visiting Buffalo on March 22nd.

[Black Bolt]

Originally Posted by gpngc

I think it's more likely he falls out of first than goes top 10.

Way too many question marks to take in the top ten but it only takes one.

You are officially out of your mind. Denial....why, just to be "right?"

By the way, check this out:

March 13: "From what I'm hearing the Eagles are serous about Geno Smith and it's not a smokescreen. They're dead serious." - Sal Paolantonio on 97.5 Philadelphia

It doesn't say, but I don't think he is talking the second round.

[raphael]

Makes sense for the Jaguars to show a lot of interest, whether they are serious about him or not. I'm sure they're dying to trade down from #2 overall, and a quarterback is usually the only position teams trade up for. It seems a bit suspiscious that they would make such an ostentatious showing on the guy's pro day. They even announced all the people who would be there on their website. But in terms of actually getting a handle on the player a pro day is next to useless. Scripted performance on familiar turf, having to line up to interview the guy. With the second overall pick of the draft, Jax could probably bring Geno to Jacksonville for a week worth of private workouts and interviews. Why bother making such a scene on his pro day, unless that is exactly what you're trying to do? If they can generate interest in their own pick, or get someone to jump ahead of them for Smith, it might give them a shot at Joeckel or another player who wouldn't otherwise be there.

[Black Bolt]

Originally Posted by raphael

Makes sense for the Jaguars to show a lot of interest, whether they are serious about him or not. I'm sure they're dying to trade down from #2 overall, and a quarterback is usually the only position teams trade up for. It seems a bit suspiscious that they would make such an ostentatious showing on the guy's pro day. They even announced all the people who would be there on their website. But in terms of actually getting a handle on the player a pro day is next to useless. Scripted performance on familiar turf, having to line up to interview the guy. With the second overall pick of the draft, Jax could probably bring Geno to Jacksonville for a week worth of private workouts and interviews. Why bother making such a scene on his pro day, unless that is exactly what you're trying to do? If they can generate interest in their own pick, or get someone to jump ahead of them for Smith, it might give them a shot at Joeckel or another player who wouldn't otherwise be there.

But, but, but, this guy isn't first round material!!!

[raphael]

Originally Posted by Black Bolt

But, but, but, this guy isn't first round material!!!

I never said that, I've said that Smith and the rest of the QBs are really underrated all along. I think he should go top three, but Jacksonville made the least sense. It would be nip and tuck between he and Gabbert, there is less than a year age difference between them, and whoever lost the competition wouldn't have a lot of trade value. Unless Gabbert's arm injury is more serious than we know.

[Iamcanadian]

I think when Buffalo dumped Fitzpatrick, there is a chance they take a shot on Geo Smith, they have little else and waiting on Nassib is pretty risky.
I'm not saying Smith is a top 10 talent but in today's NFL you must get your QB in round 1 where he is tied down to a 5 year contract, if you wait till round 2, you only have him for 4 years before his contract must be renewed and if he is successful, his salary will completely restructure your teams ability to sign its FA's. Ask Baltimore how a QB's salary effects salary structure.