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Old 09-21-2012, 11:18 AM    (permalink
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Default September 21st Mock Draft

Draft order is determined by a combination of record (0-2 teams first, 1-1 teams afterwards, 2-0 teams last), value (attempting to match better players to more needy teams), and my own predictions regarding who will make the playoffs. I've tried to avoid superimposing my own rankings into the draft wherever possible; instead, I've focused on trying to base the mock draft off of perceived draft stock, except where it's currently ambiguous. Let me know what you think!

September 21st Mock Draft

1. QB Matt Barkley, Southern California*

General management Scott Pioli is on the hot seat, and his departure could mean a change of direction away from incumbent quarterback Matt Cassel.

2. DE Barkevious Mingo, Louisiana St.*

Cleveland has three spots on their defensive line set for the long term (Jabaal Sheard, Ahtyba Rubin, and Phil Taylor) but still needs a dynamic right end.

3. LB Jarvis Jones, Georgia*

Phillip Wheeler has played well on the strong side, but Oakland could stand to upgrade over weakside linebacker Miles Burris with an elite pass rusher.

4. DT Star Lotulelei, Utah

First-rounder Tyson Alualu has looked like a bust so far, and 2009 third-round pick Terrance Knighton is in a contract year at the other defensive tackle spot.

5. DE Bjoern Werner, Florida St.*

Werner's stock is on the rise after recording nine tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks through three games; Tennessee could upgrade over Derrick Morgan.

6. FS Eric Reid, Louisiana St.*

Roman Harper's deficiencies in coverage are well-known, and the Saints must upgrade their struggling defense; Reid would compliment Malcolm Jenkins well.

7. WR Keenan Allen, California*

The Chad Johnson experiment failed miserably, and Miami lacks alternatives; they must surround Ryan Tannehill with weapons if they want him to succeed.

8. WR Robert Woods, Southern California*

Percy Harvin is an elite talent at wide receiver, but the Vikings lack a dangerous complimentary receiver; Woods' diverse skill-set would address that issue.

9. CB Dee Milliner, Alabama*

Former second-round pick Aaron Williams has struggled mightily throughout his career and Buffalo could look for a corner to compliment Stephon Gilmore.

10. DT Johnathan Hankins, Ohio St.*

Head coach Chuck Pagano is going to need to add talent along the line for his scheme to succeed; Hankins is a massive run stuffer who lines up all over the field.

11. WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee*

The Rams drafted Brian Quick in the second round last year but lack another top receiver; a receiver trio of Hunter, Quick, and Amendola could be intriguing.

12. (from Redskins) OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M*

Rodger Saffold looked terrible in 2011 and has battled injuries this year; St. Louis is desperate to upgrade their offensive line and protect quarterback Sam Bradford.

13. OG Chance Warmack, Alabama

Despite investing heavily in the offensive line recently, Seattle still hasn't established a quality starting lineup; Warmack would step in for Paul McQuistan on the left.

14. CB David Amerson, North Carolina St.*

Amerson's stock has been falling, but his combination of size, instincts, and ball skills could help out a Panthers secondary that needs help at both cornerback and safety.

15. OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan*

Greg Schiano's desire to build a tough, power-based offense could push him towards an aggressive, mean blocker such as Lewan to address the uncertainty at tackle.

16. DE Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas*

Rex Ryan has lacked edge rushers for some time and Jeffcoat has experience standing up; Calvin Pace is unlikely to get his $2.5 million roster bonus next year.

17. LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame

Vontaze Burfict has been a pleasant surprise, but Cincinnati still needs more talent at linebacker; Rey Maualuga is beginning to wear out his welcome inside.

18. OT Jake Matthews, Texas A&M*

The offensive line has been neglected for long enough in Chicago, and J'Marcus Webb should be the first man out; Matthews is the most highly-regarded tackle left.

19. QB Tyler Wilson, Arkansas

Arizona can cut ties with Kevin Kolb after the season and thus avoid paying $41 million of the money owed to him over the four seasons remaining on his deal.

20. CB Johnthan Banks, Mississippi St.

Detroit will likely be forced to spend this pick improving their defense; a lanky, ball-hawking corne such as Banks would boost the secondary significantly.

21. DT John Jenkins, Georgia

None of the offensive linemen available represent strong values, so a massive nose tackle such as Jenkins makes sense considering Antonio Garay's age (32.)

22. FS T.J. McDonald, Southern California

2011 second-round pick Jaiquawn Jarrett has already been released, leaving only Kurt Coleman at free safety; McDonald would inject some athleticism into the position.

23. CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida St.*

Steelers cornerbacks Keenan Lewis (107.2 rating against) and 32 year-old Ike Taylor (129.5 rating against) have both struggled, so Rhodes makes sense.

24. DE Sam Montgomery, Louisiana St.*

Anthony Spencer is playing under the franchise tag and may not be back in 2013; Montgomery (6'5", 260) is a similarly-sized player who would boost Dallas' pass rush.

25. DE Michael Buchanan, Illinois

2012 second-rounder Derek Wolfe is playing out of position at left end; the Broncos could use a true defensive end, which would allow Wolfe to slide in to tackle.

26. LB Shayne Skov, Stanford

Middle linebacker Chase Blackburn is one of the weaknesses on New York's defense; Skov could add an athletic pass-rush presence as Blackburn's replacement.

27. C Khaled Holmes, Southern California

Holmes got hurt last week and his value was further emphasized by Southern California's inability to defend Matt Barkley from Stanford's interior pass rush.

28. DT Kawann Short, Purdue

Kawann Short plays all over Purdue's defensive line; his bulk and versatility would improve a defensive line which has failed to get production from their tackles.

29. RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina*

Running backs aren't as valuable as they once were, but a player such as Lattimore would be very appealing to a Packers team which has struggled at the position.

30. DE Margus Hunt, Southern Methodist

Hunt hasn't been particularly productive in college, but his combination of size (6'8", 280), strength, and athleticism is highly reminiscent of Adam Carriker.

31. OL Barrett Jones, Alabama

Jones' versatility and intangibles would be appealing to a Houston team which has struggled to replace departed starters at right guard as well as right tackle.

32. WR Terrance Williams, Baylor

San Francisco is stacked, but Randy Moss and Mario Manningham are only on one-year deals; A.J. Jenkins' early struggles could push them towards a wideout.

Missed the cut:

QB Tyler Bray, Tennessee*
QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
WR Marquess Wilson, Washington St.*
TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame*
DT Sylvester Williams, North Carolina
DE Corey Lemonier, Auburn*
DE Alex Okafor, Texas
LB C.J. Mosley, Alabama*
LB Chase Thomas, Stanford

Returning to school:

QB Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech*
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:21 AM    (permalink
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A pass rusher is a much bigger need for the Bengals then a LB.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:39 AM    (permalink
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I would be pretty happy with Matt Barkley in KC.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:39 AM    (permalink
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A pass rusher is a much bigger need for the Bengals then a LB.
I was going to mention this.

As for the Colts, Hankins makes sense, though there's a chance Josh Chapman comes back from injury and takes on the starting NT role. Is Hankins really that versatile? How's his motor? Will he still play hard once he gets paid?
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:41 AM    (permalink
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Marcus Lattimore = Sex
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:47 AM    (permalink
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I was going to mention this.

As for the Colts, Hankins makes sense, though there's a chance Josh Chapman comes back from injury and takes on the starting NT role. Is Hankins really that versatile? How's his motor? Will he still play hard once he gets paid?
The Buckeyes use him at defensive end a fair amount, and he seems to have a pretty consistent motor. He's not the athlete that Star Lotulelei is, but a defense could certainly move him around to wherever they think the opponent will run. Chuck Pagano used Haloti Ngata at defensive end in Baltimore, so I think it would make some sense to draft him. He may be going higher than he deserves because he's not a particularly disruptive pass rusher, but teams have shown they are willing to reach on 3-4 defensive linemen (see Dontari Poe.)
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:51 AM    (permalink
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I think if we can't get Lotulelei or Jarvis Jones I would maybe rather go after Chance Warmack or Luke Joekel. A lot will depend on how we use our $40 million in new cap space though.
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Old 09-21-2012, 12:22 PM    (permalink
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I would only want Amerson at safety, but obviously we need a lot of help there as well. Still would probably prefer a defensive tackle though, either Short or Jenkins. An improved defensive line would help out the secondary by proxy.
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Old 09-21-2012, 12:22 PM    (permalink
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For teams wanting a QB, I don't think Barkley will be their first choice once it all shakes out. L.Thomas is extremely raw but his skill set is really thru the roof. If #1 consideration is being projected for him I think he declares. Wilson is next, but I'm not sure how the concussion will affect his stock. His best ability, imo, was producing despite a heavy rush. If he can't stay healthy or there's a danger of him remaining healthy, it could affect him. But I still would take him over Barkley.

For the Browns, they just signed Mr. Frostee to be a starting RDE and so far, he's playing very well there. If that keeps up I think they look DB, OLB or even WR if a super talent like K.Allen is sitting there. Now if Mingo shows the ability to play OLB in a 43 scheme then.....

Really don't like Jackson Jeffcoat. I think he's overrated everywhere I see. I'd take Okafor over him. As far as your rankings, Lemonier is pretty low but he does carry injury issues, Gino Smith is almost a 1st round lock given the way the rookies QBs are playing so well right away and Demontre Moore is missing from everything. He is what people think Jeffcoat is.

IDK about Skov either. Even 100% healthy I'm not sure he's a 1st rounder. A guy I would bet money the Giants target after the 1st if they look inside is local guy Sio Moore. I'm sure you know him. Definite sleeper at MLB or OLB in this draft. I like both him and Trevardo Williams a lot.
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Old 09-21-2012, 12:31 PM    (permalink
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Old 09-21-2012, 12:36 PM    (permalink
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But you're drafting 6th so it's unrealistic.
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Old 09-21-2012, 12:46 PM    (permalink
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For teams wanting a QB, I don't think Barkley will be their first choice once it all shakes out. L.Thomas is extremely raw but his skill set is really thru the roof. If #1 consideration is being projected for him I think he declares. Wilson is next, but I'm not sure how the concussion will affect his stock. His best ability, imo, was producing despite a heavy rush. If he can't stay healthy or there's a danger of him remaining healthy, it could affect him. But I still would take him over Barkley.
I really like Logan Thomas as well, but Barkley already appears very close to being a quality pro. Coming from a pro-style offense and starting for four years, he's ready to be injected into a starting lineup right away. Nowadays there's no such thing as developing high draft picks, especially at quarterback; if your "developmental prospect" struggles for one year, they're already well on their way to being considered a bust (see: Gabbert, Ponder.) Ultimately I think Barkley will end up being a player similar to Matt Ryan, which is well worth the top pick. Logan Thomas has really struggled to begin the season (completion percentage is down five points, threw three interceptions in an 18-point loss to Pittsburgh) and should probably return for his senior season.

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For the Browns, they just signed Mr. Frostee to be a starting RDE and so far, he's playing very well there. If that keeps up I think they look DB, OLB or even WR if a super talent like K.Allen is sitting there. Now if Mingo shows the ability to play OLB in a 43 scheme then.....
Rucker is also being used primarily as a rotational player (93 out of 164 defensive snaps), and Mingo is one of the three elite prospects in the draft alongside Barkley and Jarvis Jones. Maybe Cleveland would look at Jones for that OLB. Keenan Allen is probably a little bit below those three guys and I'm not sure Cleveland would invest in another wide receiver after already spending a second-round pick on Josh Gordon.

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Really don't like Jackson Jeffcoat. I think he's overrated everywhere I see. I'd take Okafor over him. As far as your rankings, Lemonier is pretty low but he does carry injury issues, Gino Smith is almost a 1st round lock given the way the rookies QBs are playing so well right away and Demontre Moore is missing from everything. He is what people think Jeffcoat is.
Jeffcoat is substantially more explosive than Okafor, and far more well-rounded than Lemonier, who has a really lackluster anchor. Geno Smith is getting a lot of hype, but there just aren't that many teams looking for quarterbacks right now. Aside from the Chiefs, Raiders, and Cardinals, every team in the top twenty believes they have a potential franchise quarterback, and no one in the playoffs is going to draft a passer in the first round.

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IDK about Skov either. Even 100% healthy I'm not sure he's a 1st rounder. A guy I would bet money the Giants target after the 1st if they look inside is local guy Sio Moore. I'm sure you know him. Definite sleeper at MLB or OLB in this draft. I like both him and Trevardo Williams a lot.
Skov does seem like a slight reach; I had some trouble drafting for the Giants. Sio Moore is nowhere near a first rounder, although I like him as well.
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Old 09-21-2012, 12:48 PM    (permalink
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Where is OT DJ Fluker?
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Old 09-21-2012, 12:52 PM    (permalink
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Where is OT DJ Fluker?
Far, far away from the first round.
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Old 09-21-2012, 01:09 PM    (permalink
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But you're drafting 6th so it's unrealistic.
I know I'd be happy with Justin Hunter too or Jarvis Jones too.
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Old 09-21-2012, 01:18 PM    (permalink
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I really like Logan Thomas as well, but Barkley already appears very close to being a quality pro. Coming from a pro-style offense and starting for four years, he's ready to be injected into a starting lineup right away. Nowadays there's no such thing as developing high draft picks, especially at quarterback; if your "developmental prospect" struggles for one year, they're already well on their way to being considered a bust (see: Gabbert, Ponder.) Ultimately I think Barkley will end up being a player similar to Matt Ryan, which is well worth the top pick. Logan Thomas has really struggled to begin the season (completion percentage is down five points, threw three interceptions in an 18-point loss to Pittsburgh) and should probably return for his senior season.
I'd love to see a break down of Ryan vs Barkley. Ryan had to endure a bad team at BC and it made him a better player. Bark has worked with much more talent all around. It's a good comparison but look at the talent they've surrounded Ryan with in ATL and it's still debatable if they're truly an upper echelon team.

I watched Thomas at Pitt and he's raw, no question, but he didn't play as bad as his numbers looked. It's all about skill set with him. He's improved rapidly and he's got a legitimate Newtonian skill set, which is saying something. Really he's further along as a passer than Cam was. I just don't see any glaring weaknesses in his game other then rawness. No, he isn't carrying his team to start the season but there's time. I think he could be a better Josh Freeman. Barkley I think is closer to a lesser Ryan.
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Old 09-21-2012, 01:33 PM    (permalink
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I doubt the Ravens go for a C so soon after drafting Gradkowski. He looked fairly good in the preseason and I wouldn't be surprised to see him starting over Birk in a few weeks, although that might be more telling of Birk's play than anything.
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Old 09-21-2012, 05:25 PM    (permalink
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While NT could be a need, i really think that Cam Thomas is going to be solid.

But we're DESPERATELY hurting at CB, with only 4 on our roster right now, and our top 2, in Cason and Jammer are FA's after next season, and even then, Jammer is turning 34 or 35 next year.

This pick has to be Xavier Rhodes.
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Old 09-21-2012, 08:02 PM    (permalink
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I really have a hard time with us passing on especially Barrett Jones and Marquess Wilson, but also Lemonier in favor of Hunt. Hunt has elite tools to work with, but he's still raw and he's older than the other prospects.
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Old 09-21-2012, 08:33 PM    (permalink
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Well we love drafting RBs and CBs in the first so I guess.
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Old 09-21-2012, 09:49 PM    (permalink
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Pretty good pick for the Colts in getting Big Hank at DT. I feel we need to build this defense and OL up and this team will be great.
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:36 PM    (permalink
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Rucker is also being used primarily as a rotational player (93 out of 164 defensive snaps), and Mingo is one of the three elite prospects in the draft alongside Barkley and Jarvis Jones. Maybe Cleveland would look at Jones for that OLB. Keenan Allen is probably a little bit below those three guys and I'm not sure Cleveland would invest in another wide receiver after already spending a second-round pick on Josh Gordon.



Jeffcoat is substantially more explosive than Okafor, and far more well-rounded than Lemonier, who has a really lackluster anchor. Geno Smith is getting a lot of hype, but there just aren't that many teams looking for quarterbacks right now. Aside from the Chiefs, Raiders, and Cardinals, every team in the top twenty believes they have a potential franchise quarterback, and no one in the playoffs is going to draft a passer in the first round.

Completely agree with you about the Browns. Don't see them going skill position first round next year and Mingo would fill their biggest need on d and is a good fit for their scheme.

While teams say they have their franchise qb, some teams are a losing season away from changing their mind. Bills, Bucs, Jags, and especially my Jets are all a 4-12 season away from changing their direction and drafting a new franchise qb. Throw the Seahawks in there too, while russel Wilson has been doing well I think they understand he has a really low ceiling so they could grab a qb if one is dangling there with good value.
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:12 PM    (permalink
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A pass rusher is a much bigger need for the Bengals then a LB.
I like Teo. But this. We need a DE who can get to the QB
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:14 PM    (permalink
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Whoa, nice Rams draft. But Rodger Saffold didn't look "terrible" last year.
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Old 09-22-2012, 08:32 AM    (permalink
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Whoa, nice Rams draft. But Rodger Saffold didn't look "terrible" last year.
Ten penalties and 11 sacks allowed in nine starts is pretty awful. Guy Whimper, J'Marcus Webb, Levi Brown, and Wayne Hunter are the only other players to allow that many sacks, and they all played the whole season (aside from Whimper, who played only 15 games.)
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