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Old 09-21-2012, 08:46 AM    (permalink
scottyboy
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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80 View Post
This is exactly why I try to keep things anonymous when discussing Alex Smith. If I don't then people won't even bother reading what I actually posted and we end up with posts like this.
no, posts like his are exactly why anonymous stats and projections are garbage.

Eli made Ramses Barden look like a stud last night. Think about that. Minus our starting RB, too. Yeah, the Panthers D looked like hot garbage, but coming into the game, it was NO NICKS NO BRADSHAW NO DIEHL NO SHOT!

now it's ramses and brown are studs. Let's be real here, Eli did that. Hell, post game interview with Coughlin, he said how Eli had all the young guys and gave them a big speech, stepped up as the leader etc. Nameless, baseless stats like that mean nothing. They make Alex Smith seem almost as good as Eli, which, if you watch football, you know is far from the truth
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Old 09-21-2012, 08:55 AM    (permalink
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Alex Smith is good in his own right. But he's not in Eli's class. Can he be? Idk. He's got the talet and intangibles and he's a great leader.

But Eli is a top 5 qb ad has proved it. He's clutch when it counts. People buy into the ny media too much bc he's also the qb that gets analyzed ad picked apart after a shaky start here and there.
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Old 09-21-2012, 09:22 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
When is Ramses Barden's rookie deal up?? If it's at the end of this season, the NY has some serious decisions to make at that position.

At 6'6 with his vert, hands, speed and fluidity, Barden IMO looks like he could be a pro bowl WR on a different team.
Literally every team in the NFL wants a guy like Barden, and I think he could be one of the few guys who signs a huge second pro contract despite practically never playing for his original team.

I still believe Cruz, Nicks and Barden are the Giants top 3 WRs.
sure as hell too him a long time, he was awful in and out of his cuts early on. He was just WIDE open all night tho
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Old 09-21-2012, 09:34 AM    (permalink
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no, posts like his are exactly why anonymous stats and projections are garbage.

Eli made Ramses Barden look like a stud last night. Think about that. Minus our starting RB, too. Yeah, the Panthers D looked like hot garbage, but coming into the game, it was NO NICKS NO BRADSHAW NO DIEHL NO SHOT!

now it's ramses and brown are studs. Let's be real here, Eli did that. Hell, post game interview with Coughlin, he said how Eli had all the young guys and gave them a big speech, stepped up as the leader etc. Nameless, baseless stats like that mean nothing. They make Alex Smith seem almost as good as Eli, which, if you watch football, you know is far from the truth
1) Did I miss something? Barden is over six and a half feet tall and runs a 4.6 40-yard dash. He was a 3rd round pick. It is not like he is some no talent scrub

2) I could have made a WR look like an All Pro the way the Panthers defense played last night

3) Most importantly, I never compared Alex Smith to the current Eli Manning. That would be an awful comparison. Eli is way ahead of Smith right now. My comparison was after their first ~5 years worth of actually playing.

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it's not like it's a secret that every time you do one of those you're solely doing it to try to make alex smith look better in the only way you really can.
It is the only way to make Alex Smith look better because if I actually say who the QB is no one will bother reading the stats.
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Old 09-21-2012, 09:41 AM    (permalink
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this is mind blowing. going into the game, it's Nicks is out, giants are DOOMED!

now Barden's a freak, 3rd rounder who obviously was gonna dominate, obviously. Barden hasn't done **** but try out for the tour de france with how much he's ridden the bike at practice. He's done NOTHING in his 3+ years. Dude almost got cut. HE WAS ALMOST CUT. But no, you're right, silly of me, I forgot how awesome Barden is and that his attributes and draft slot mean that he's a stud.

There are a handful of Barden supporters here, but this reaction to him here is hilarious. I can't stress enough, he was almost cut. He had a few good pre-season plays that kept him on. Could he have just needed 3 years to finally get acclimated to the nfl? perhaps. But to act like he's something to write home about thus far is laughable

and honestly, regarding smith, i think it's just more people are tired of having you pump up a guy who's been a painfully average QB
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Old 09-21-2012, 09:47 AM    (permalink
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i thought the giants were gonna get destroyed, but i honestly didnt know much about barden except how bad he was his rookie year. Still dont really know what to make of the giants though, the panthers may just be really that terrible on defense. Im glad we get to hear about how the world is out to get the giants already though, that usually waits til december. First it was elis brilliant comeback and now its the injurrriiiieezzzz lol
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Old 09-21-2012, 09:49 AM    (permalink
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this is mind blowing. going into the game, it's Nicks is out, giants are DOOMED!

now Barden's a freak, 3rd rounder who obviously was gonna dominate, obviously. Barden hasn't done **** but try out for the tour de france with how much he's ridden the bike at practice. He's done NOTHING in his 3+ years. Dude almost got cut. HE WAS ALMOST CUT. But no, you're right, silly of me, I forgot how awesome Barden is and that his attributes and draft slot mean that he's a stud.

There are a handful of Barden supporters here, but this reaction to him here is hilarious. I can't stress enough, he was almost cut. He had a few good pre-season plays that kept him on. Could he have just needed 3 years to finally get acclimated to the nfl? perhaps. But to act like he's something to write home about thus far is laughable

and honestly, regarding smith, i think it's just more people are tired of having you pump up a guy who's been a painfully average QB
I fully expected the Giants to win by around 14 even when I heard Bradshaw and Nicks were out. The Panthers simply are not a good team. I did not expect the beatdown to be as thorough as it was but that is because I thought the Panthers offense would be better after the Cowboys and Bucs both moved the ball decently against the Giants. Not that this is even relevant as I am not trying to compare Alex Smith to current Eli.

The whole point of the comparison between Eli and Alex was to prove that maybe Smith can still become a great QB, like Eli. Eli was not good after his first 87 starts, he was painfully average to use your phrasing. But he was 29 after those starts and then took a huge step forward. Alex smith will be 29 going into next season and have had 82 starts with similar stats, wins and 4th quarter comebacks to Eli's first 87. Why is it crazy to think that Alex Smith can't make a jump to elite as well?

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Old 09-21-2012, 09:55 AM    (permalink
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ravens/browns next week on TNF, probably another **** game lol....at least ill get to see trent <3
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Old 09-21-2012, 09:55 AM    (permalink
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because Eli showed flashes. Yes, the fan base here can be homerish when it comes to the giants, especially Eli, but we constantly would fight saying that he's shown incredible flashes through those first 87 starts. The lack of consistency was just maddening. The turnovers too. Even looking at those numbers (with your lofty projection of Smith's stats) Eli still has better numbers. More TD's, more yards, better record. And of course note, the more INT's, which is what held Eli down the most. You can have your vision of Smith becoming something more than an average, or maybe above average, bus driving QB, but I personally don't see it. Eli is far from the norm or example of developing QBs
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Old 09-21-2012, 09:59 AM    (permalink
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I fully expected the Giants to win by around 14 even when I heard Bradshaw and Nicks were out. The Panthers simply are not a good team. I did not expect the beatdown to be as thorough as it was but that is because I thought the Panthers offense would be better after the Cowboys and Bucs both moved the ball decently against the Giants. Not that this is even relevant as I am not trying to compare Alex Smith to current Eli.

The whole point of the comparison between Eli and Alex was to prove that maybe Smith can still become a great QB, like Eli. Eli was not good after his first 87 starts, he was painfully average to use your phrasing. But he was 29 after those starts and then took a huge step forward. Alex smith will be 29 going into next season and have had 82 starts with similar stats, wins and 4th quarter comebacks to Eli's first 87. Why is it crazy to think that Alex Smith can't make a jump to elite as well?

Hey I thought it was a fine comparison from the standpoint that I think Smith can do well for the niners. I really wish him the best and hope he does. I liked him when the niners drafted him. It's a sin that they nearly broke the guy with lack of stability on the offensive side of the ball. What was it? 7 OCs in 7 years? That's pathetic on their part.

I am very happy to see him happy and playing well. I hope he becomes good. He seems like a good guy, and took abuse early on. I don't think people will be quick to say Alex Smith is elite. I see a general trend with fans and media. You have to make a great impression early on and people love that. Like a Cam Newton or Bob Griffin.

If you have that great start and give a great first impression people will make up your mind as a good player. If you stink early on, that's your label. That's something I notice. I like to read opposing MBs when we play them, and some refer to Eli as if it was 2005 or 2006. It's like their opinion was formed then, and still think of him as that.

So just be warned even if Alex Smith dominates the NFL, people won't be so fast to give him his props. Watch out for tons of reasons and excuses. This is something I quietly observed. If you started your career slower, you have to be 10X as better in the fans eye to win their respect. And even then they will still have their previous opinions formed.
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:03 AM    (permalink
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because Eli showed flashes. Yes, the fan base here can be homerish when it comes to the giants, especially Eli, but we constantly would fight saying that he's shown incredible flashes through those first 87 starts. The lack of consistency was just maddening. The turnovers too. Even looking at those numbers (with your lofty projection of Smith's stats) Eli still has better numbers. More TD's, more yards, better record. And of course note, the more INT's, which is what held Eli down the most. You can have your vision of Smith becoming something more than an average, or maybe above average, bus driving QB, but I personally don't see it. Eli is far from the norm or example of developing QBs
Alex Smith hasn't shown flashes through his first 66 starts? His performance against the Saints in the playoffs last year? His 4th quarter comebacks against the Seahawks and Cardinals early in his career? All of last season could be considered a "flash" of being a great QB and he still has the rest of this season, and so far he has been the single best and most important player on the 49ers, to make more impressions.
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:04 AM    (permalink
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Hey I thought it was a fine comparison from the standpoint that I think Smith can do well for the niners. I really wish him the best and hope he does. I liked him when the niners drafted him. It's a sin that they nearly broke the guy with lack of stability on the offensive side of the ball. What was it? 7 OCs in 7 years? That's pathetic on their part.

I am very happy to see him happy and playing well. I hope he becomes good. He seems like a good guy, and took abuse early on. I don't think people will be quick to say Alex Smith is elite. I see a general trend with fans and media. You have to make a great impression early on and people love that. Like a Cam Newton or Bob Griffin.

If you have that great start and give a great first impression people will make up your mind as a good player. If you stink early on, that's your label. That's something I notice. I like to read opposing MBs when we play them, and some refer to Eli as if it was 2005 or 2006. It's like their opinion was formed then, and still think of him as that.

So just be warned even if Alex Smith dominates the NFL, people won't be so fast to give him his props. Watch out for tons of reasons and excuses. This is something I quietly observed. If you started your career slower, you have to be 10X as better in the fans eye to win their respect. And even then they will still have their previous opinions formed.
This is so true, which is why I tried using anonymous stats. +rep
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:08 AM    (permalink
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which should tell you something about the efficacy of using stats. but it hasn't and it clearly won't. i'm still not entirely sure why you think football can be played on a spreadsheet, but i don't really have any interest in arguing about it anymore. if, in your view, football can be boiled down solely to numbers, then there's simply no reason to play the games any more. set up the regressions in a spreadsheet, run them a few hundred times to 'even out the differences' or whatever, and boom. you've got your super bowl winners for the next 15 years.

of course, given that you can clearly do that, i'd expect you to parlay the next decade or so of super bowl winners into a tremendously large amount of money.
Stats can't be used as perfect predictors, I never even implied anything close to that.

But to act like stats can't be used to compare players pasts if ridiculous. If stats, and team record, aren't how we compare players then what do we use? If a player is putting up good stats and his team is winning how can you possibly argue that he isn't a good player?
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:10 AM    (permalink
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Alex Smith hasn't shown flashes through his first 66 starts? His performance against the Saints in the playoffs last year? His 4th quarter comebacks against the Seahawks and Cardinals early in his career? All of last season could be considered a "flash" of being a great QB and he still has the rest of this season, and so far he has been the single best and most important player on the 49ers, to make more impressions.
there's absolutely no way you can really say he's been the best players on the niners when you have legit super stars littered all over your defense. that's a bit of a stretch.

and sure, ignore everything else about how those stats weren't even as good as Eli's, even with your lofty projections.

And my view is this: I've never seen Smith as a bad QB. I liked him coming out, still do, but he's not going to take over a game. He's not a top 10 QB that teams go in worried about. He's an average QB who's making strides, there's no doubt he's improving and looking more comfortable out there, but it's relentless pumping him up that you and other niner fans are doing that's just silly, annoying and unnecessary. Why are you boasting about the progress of your average QB and then throwing nameless stats out there saying that he could become an elite QB like Eli? Just take his progression from bus driver to that bus driver who makes the long trips, like a jersey basketball team driving down to a florida tourney, and boast about your D.
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:12 AM    (permalink
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Even that won't help because once your make the crux of your point, and reveal names, they will still go against the stats and make excuses. The mentality I observed is good or bad, hurry up and show me what you have. If you're a good we will label you as good, and if you're bad, god help you, because you will be labeled as bad.

If that happens you will need to work 19239182938 X more to show us you can be good. And we, as fans, will try our best to come up with any reason to fight that stigma. After all, we made our decision, in early on when we labeled you as bad.

So Blaine G. is basically screwed. He has been labeled as useless, so he needs to work so much harder now to be average in the fans eye.

This is something I have noticed. Obviously, it's a generalization and doesn't apply to everyone but this is something I noticed.
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:19 AM    (permalink
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i love it when njx uses "bloody"

also, team message boards are where intelligent conversation goes to die. It's like a place full of trolls...who aren't trying to troll
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:21 AM    (permalink
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there's absolutely no way you can really say he's been the best players on the niners when you have legit super stars littered all over your defense. that's a bit of a stretch.
Have you watched the 49ers this year? Smith has been surgical. His worst passes have been six inches off-target and hit the receivers hands. The 49ers have dropped nine perfectly thrown passes this year and Smith is still completing 70% of his passes. The defense has been great, don't get me wrong, but it has been more of a team effort and no single player has really stood out.

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and sure, ignore everything else about how those stats weren't even as good as Eli's, even with your lofty projections.
Like I said, they aren't my projections. But I will say I don't think they will be too far off given the first two weeks. I don't see why the stats aren't every bit as good as Eli's. Same YPA, higher completion percentage, lower interception percentage, higher QB rating, similar record and lower touchdown percentage.

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And my view is this: I've never seen Smith as a bad QB. I liked him coming out, still do, but he's not going to take over a game. He's not a top 10 QB that teams go in worried about. He's an average QB who's making strides, there's no doubt he's improving and looking more comfortable out there, but it's relentless pumping him up that you and other niner fans are doing that's just silly, annoying and unnecessary. Why are you boasting about the progress of your average QB and then throwing nameless stats out there saying that he could become an elite QB like Eli? Just take his progression from bus driver to that bus driver who makes the long trips, like a jersey basketball team driving down to a florida tourney, and boast about your D.
Because I don't like how he is just considered a game manager. He has 10 career 4th quarter comebacks after 68 starts, which is three less than Eli had after 87 starts. His defense (average 16th) has ranked barely better than Eli's (18th) and his running game (16th) has been much worse than Eli's (8th) during that span, yet no one ever considered Eli a "bus driver."
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:24 AM    (permalink
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and often, that's because the players only show flashes. how good did aaron rodgers look as a rookie? how long did it take everyone on earth to jump on board when he became the starter? if someone signed vernon gholston tomorrow, and he had a sack on sunday, would you be ready to declare him a great DE? it's silly. if a player has been mediocre, no matter what his circumstances, *of course* he has to do a bit more to prove himself going forward, because he has to prove that this isn't a one game anomaly. he has to prove that he isn't ryan fitzpatrick at the start of last season. i don't think that's in any way unfair. no one here is suggesting that alex smith is a crappy qb. but suggesting he's equivalent to a top 5 qb is asinine, moreso when it's based on nothing other than stats.

but let's not pretend that the opinion of a bunch of jackoffs on a team MB is representative of anything other than a lot of mouth-breathing douchebaggery. i've read the broncos team boards. and they're an absolute joke. it's the lowest common denominator fans from the crappiest, low rent sports bars on the planet, all gathered round to circle jerk about a sport that might as well be soccer, for all they understand about it.

I do know about low class fans. After all, we are in the NFC East, so I am sure you can think of a fan base that's known for being, low class. And true MB fans don't represent much, however, it is fun to get interact or even see how other fan bases perceive things. I like it because it keeps one balanced and realistic. I learned it stops me from being a homer, because I can see a different point by a 3rd party fan, that I may have not seen because I am a giants fan. So that's why I post here. I like to talk to different fan bases.

And so that's the observed trend I noticed. And true a player has to work hard to prove himself if he has done poorly. But I am not talking about a game here or there. My example is based on a larger sampling size. Specific to Eli, because that's the example I know better. If you talk or read MB you see that some still can't get past his 2005-2006 results.

I was on the Cowboys scout.com MB, and the fans were debating among themselves. One guy was putting Eli down, and the other fan was mad saying, he is a great QB, get over it type thing. So you still see fans who, even after, all the success still can't change their opinion on the guy. And this goes past 1 game or even 1 season.

So my point is that expect that for Alex Smith. It's nice that this guy is using stats, but all I saying is that's not going to be enough. People are always going to fight the stigma. Even if Smith wins a SB, people will credit everyone except him. Oh, it's just Alex Smith. That amazing defense and Harbaugh were the catalyst for the win. Or look how many weapons Smith has now. If he didn't win he would be a joke. I mean how can you not? So it's good to see him trying to back Alex Smith. I see his general point, but it's going to be a tough sell.

In fact, I'd wait for more solid results, which would mean couple more seasons. I think in regards to Alex Smith people want to see a larger sample size, which would translate to 2-3 more seasons. And even then people would be on the fence.
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:34 AM    (permalink
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Even that won't help because once your make the crux of your point, and reveal names, they will still go against the stats and make excuses. The mentality I observed is good or bad, hurry up and show me what you have. If you're a good we will label you as good, and if you're bad, god help you, because you will be labeled as bad.

If that happens you will need to work 19239182938 X more to show us you can be good. And we, as fans, will try our best to come up with any reason to fight that stigma. After all, we made our decision, in early on when we labeled you as bad.

So Blaine G. is basically screwed. He has been labeled as useless, so he needs to work so much harder now to be average in the fans eye.

This is something I have noticed. Obviously, it's a generalization and doesn't apply to everyone but this is something I noticed.
You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to NY+Giants=NYG again.

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you bloody watch the players. i have no idea why this is so difficult for you to understand. stats in a vaccuum are meaningless. suggesting that, over time, they all even out is still borderline insane, and suggests a fundamental misunderstanding of how football works. football cannot be boiled down to a stat sheet. it never could.

but, if you're suggesting that they're all you need to evaluate past performance, and if you're suggesting that they provide a perfect indicator of past performance, such that you never need to look at anything other than a box score, then to suddenly suggest you can't use them as future indicators is utterly untrue. you can't have it both ways. so: look at alex smith's last 8 years of stats. look at the 49ers opponent's last 8 years of defensive stats. then predict alex smith's final stat line for the season. if everything basically evens out, this shouldn't be a problem and you should be able to basically peg it. but, because this is reality and none of the above is true, you won't do any better than you would picking numbers out of a hat.
We just clearly disagree about how important stats are in judging past performance. I do believe that stats, at least when given a large amount of them, are all you need to judge past performance. Look at the leaders in statistical categories through the history of the NFL. The leaders are the players that everyone would consider to be the best of all-time at their positions. Look at the stats from year to year. The leaders are the players that most would consider the best that year.

But saying that they are a great indicator of past performance does not mean I have to believe they are great predictors of future performance. You are basically saying that because I think you can judge a player's past performance based on stats then that should mean I can almost perfectly judge their future performance? That doesn't make any sense. Sometimes players just improve. Sometimes players just improve. But if you are asking me to tell you how good a QB will do after giving me their team's record and information on how good the rest of the team was, defense and running game, it wouldn't be too hard to guess.
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:38 AM    (permalink
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Hey Scotty Victor Cruz was close to being cut last year so I don't think that's a good basis for an argument.
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:40 AM    (permalink
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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...for-cardinals/

It's funny how Kolb and Skelton have now switched roles. Last year, it was Kolb who kept getting hurt while Skelton led the team to wins despite not playing especially well.

Now it's Skelton who is hurt and Kolb who is getting the wins though not really dominating.

Doesn't seem to matter too much as that defense is playing well. As long as that keeps up, they should be in the hunt come playoff time.
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:45 AM    (permalink
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I don't get the Cardinals. Their defense is good but I don't think it is great enough to win given how bad their offense is. Yet they keep on winning games.
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:51 AM    (permalink
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The Cardinals should have close to a top 5 defense and probably the best ST unit in the NFL this year. There will be games they lose when the defense doesn't be as dominating, however they should be in enough close games to get above .500 and be in and around the wildcard spot
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:53 AM    (permalink
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3) Most importantly, I never compared Alex Smith to the current Eli Manning. That would be an awful comparison. Eli is way ahead of Smith right now. My comparison was after their first ~5 years worth of actually playing.
Why not? Eli just put up similar stats to Alex Smith, clearly that means they're similar players per your non-logic.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 09-21-2012, 10:54 AM    (permalink
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The Cardinals should have close to a top 5 defense and probably the best ST unit in the NFL this year. There will be games they lose when the defense doesn't be as dominating, however they should be in enough close games to get above .500 and be in and around the wildcard spot
So basically, what you are saying, is that the Cardinals are like the Kyle Orton/Rex Grossman Bears from like 6+ years ago?
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