Week 3 Discussion Thread

[scottyboy]

i love it when njx uses "bloody"

also, team message boards are where intelligent conversation goes to die. It's like a place full of trolls...who aren't trying to troll

[abaddon41_80]

Originally Posted by scottyboy

there's absolutely no way you can really say he's been the best players on the niners when you have legit super stars littered all over your defense. that's a bit of a stretch.

Have you watched the 49ers this year? Smith has been surgical. His worst passes have been six inches off-target and hit the receivers hands. The 49ers have dropped nine perfectly thrown passes this year and Smith is still completing 70% of his passes. The defense has been great, don't get me wrong, but it has been more of a team effort and no single player has really stood out.

and sure, ignore everything else about how those stats weren't even as good as Eli's, even with your lofty projections.

Like I said, they aren't my projections. But I will say I don't think they will be too far off given the first two weeks. I don't see why the stats aren't every bit as good as Eli's. Same YPA, higher completion percentage, lower interception percentage, higher QB rating, similar record and lower touchdown percentage.

And my view is this: I've never seen Smith as a bad QB. I liked him coming out, still do, but he's not going to take over a game. He's not a top 10 QB that teams go in worried about. He's an average QB who's making strides, there's no doubt he's improving and looking more comfortable out there, but it's relentless pumping him up that you and other niner fans are doing that's just silly, annoying and unnecessary. Why are you boasting about the progress of your average QB and then throwing nameless stats out there saying that he could become an elite QB like Eli? Just take his progression from bus driver to that bus driver who makes the long trips, like a jersey basketball team driving down to a florida tourney, and boast about your D.

Because I don't like how he is just considered a game manager. He has 10 career 4th quarter comebacks after 68 starts, which is three less than Eli had after 87 starts. His defense (average 16th) has ranked barely better than Eli's (18th) and his running game (16th) has been much worse than Eli's (8th) during that span, yet no one ever considered Eli a "bus driver."

[NY+Giants=NYG]

Originally Posted by njx9

and often, that's because the players only show flashes. how good did aaron rodgers look as a rookie? how long did it take everyone on earth to jump on board when he became the starter? if someone signed vernon gholston tomorrow, and he had a sack on sunday, would you be ready to declare him a great DE? it's silly. if a player has been mediocre, no matter what his circumstances, *of course* he has to do a bit more to prove himself going forward, because he has to prove that this isn't a one game anomaly. he has to prove that he isn't ryan fitzpatrick at the start of last season. i don't think that's in any way unfair. no one here is suggesting that alex smith is a crappy qb. but suggesting he's equivalent to a top 5 qb is asinine, moreso when it's based on nothing other than stats.

but let's not pretend that the opinion of a bunch of jackoffs on a team MB is representative of anything other than a lot of mouth-breathing douchebaggery. i've read the broncos team boards. and they're an absolute joke. it's the lowest common denominator fans from the crappiest, low rent sports bars on the planet, all gathered round to circle jerk about a sport that might as well be soccer, for all they understand about it.

I do know about low class fans. After all, we are in the NFC East, so I am sure you can think of a fan base that's known for being, low class. And true MB fans don't represent much, however, it is fun to get interact or even see how other fan bases perceive things. I like it because it keeps one balanced and realistic. I learned it stops me from being a homer, because I can see a different point by a 3rd party fan, that I may have not seen because I am a giants fan. So that's why I post here. I like to talk to different fan bases.

And so that's the observed trend I noticed. And true a player has to work hard to prove himself if he has done poorly. But I am not talking about a game here or there. My example is based on a larger sampling size. Specific to Eli, because that's the example I know better. If you talk or read MB you see that some still can't get past his 2005-2006 results.

I was on the Cowboys scout.com MB, and the fans were debating among themselves. One guy was putting Eli down, and the other fan was mad saying, he is a great QB, get over it type thing. So you still see fans who, even after, all the success still can't change their opinion on the guy. And this goes past 1 game or even 1 season.

So my point is that expect that for Alex Smith. It's nice that this guy is using stats, but all I saying is that's not going to be enough. People are always going to fight the stigma. Even if Smith wins a SB, people will credit everyone except him. Oh, it's just Alex Smith. That amazing defense and Harbaugh were the catalyst for the win. Or look how many weapons Smith has now. If he didn't win he would be a joke. I mean how can you not? So it's good to see him trying to back Alex Smith. I see his general point, but it's going to be a tough sell.

In fact, I'd wait for more solid results, which would mean couple more seasons. I think in regards to Alex Smith people want to see a larger sample size, which would translate to 2-3 more seasons. And even then people would be on the fence.

[abaddon41_80]

Originally Posted by NY+Giants=NYG

Even that won't help because once your make the crux of your point, and reveal names, they will still go against the stats and make excuses. The mentality I observed is good or bad, hurry up and show me what you have. If you're a good we will label you as good, and if you're bad, god help you, because you will be labeled as bad.

If that happens you will need to work 19239182938 X more to show us you can be good. And we, as fans, will try our best to come up with any reason to fight that stigma. After all, we made our decision, in early on when we labeled you as bad.

So Blaine G. is basically screwed. He has been labeled as useless, so he needs to work so much harder now to be average in the fans eye.

This is something I have noticed. Obviously, it's a generalization and doesn't apply to everyone but this is something I noticed.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to NY+Giants=NYG again.

you bloody watch the players. i have no idea why this is so difficult for you to understand. stats in a vaccuum are meaningless. suggesting that, over time, they all even out is still borderline insane, and suggests a fundamental misunderstanding of how football works. football cannot be boiled down to a stat sheet. it never could.

but, if you're suggesting that they're all you need to evaluate past performance, and if you're suggesting that they provide a perfect indicator of past performance, such that you never need to look at anything other than a box score, then to suddenly suggest you can't use them as future indicators is utterly untrue. you can't have it both ways. so: look at alex smith's last 8 years of stats. look at the 49ers opponent's last 8 years of defensive stats. then predict alex smith's final stat line for the season. if everything basically evens out, this shouldn't be a problem and you should be able to basically peg it. but, because this is reality and none of the above is true, you won't do any better than you would picking numbers out of a hat.

We just clearly disagree about how important stats are in judging past performance. I do believe that stats, at least when given a large amount of them, are all you need to judge past performance. Look at the leaders in statistical categories through the history of the NFL. The leaders are the players that everyone would consider to be the best of all-time at their positions. Look at the stats from year to year. The leaders are the players that most would consider the best that year.

But saying that they are a great indicator of past performance does not mean I have to believe they are great predictors of future performance. You are basically saying that because I think you can judge a player's past performance based on stats then that should mean I can almost perfectly judge their future performance? That doesn't make any sense. Sometimes players just improve. Sometimes players just improve. But if you are asking me to tell you how good a QB will do after giving me their team's record and information on how good the rest of the team was, defense and running game, it wouldn't be too hard to guess.

[Giantsfan1080]

Hey Scotty Victor Cruz was close to being cut last year so I don't think that's a good basis for an argument.

[BeerBaron]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...for-cardinals/

It's funny how Kolb and Skelton have now switched roles. Last year, it was Kolb who kept getting hurt while Skelton led the team to wins despite not playing especially well.

Now it's Skelton who is hurt and Kolb who is getting the wins though not really dominating.

Doesn't seem to matter too much as that defense is playing well. As long as that keeps up, they should be in the hunt come playoff time.

[abaddon41_80]

I don't get the Cardinals. Their defense is good but I don't think it is great enough to win given how bad their offense is. Yet they keep on winning games.

[AntoinCD]

The Cardinals should have close to a top 5 defense and probably the best ST unit in the NFL this year. There will be games they lose when the defense doesn't be as dominating, however they should be in enough close games to get above .500 and be in and around the wildcard spot

[Rosebud]

Originally Posted by abaddon41_80

3) Most importantly, I never compared Alex Smith to the current Eli Manning. That would be an awful comparison. Eli is way ahead of Smith right now. My comparison was after their first ~5 years worth of actually playing.

Why not? Eli just put up similar stats to Alex Smith, clearly that means they're similar players per your non-logic.

[BeerBaron]

Originally Posted by AntoinCD

The Cardinals should have close to a top 5 defense and probably the best ST unit in the NFL this year. There will be games they lose when the defense doesn't be as dominating, however they should be in enough close games to get above .500 and be in and around the wildcard spot

So basically, what you are saying, is that the Cardinals are like the Kyle Orton/Rex Grossman Bears from like 6+ years ago?

[abaddon41_80]

Originally Posted by Rosebud

Why not? Eli just put up similar stats to Alex Smith, clearly that means they're similar players per your non-logic.

You could definitely say that Alex Smith has been as good as Eli this year but two games is not a large enough sample to put him on that level when Eli has been there for almost three years. But if Alex Smith continues his level of play from the first two games and finishes the season with numbers around 65% completion, 3500 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions I think it would be pretty hard to keep him out of the top 10 current quarterbacks, as they are playing right now not for their careers, given he will have 52 touchdowns to 15 interceptions since early 2010.

[BeerBaron]

For ***** sake, I am tired of this ******* argument.



/discussion

[abaddon41_80]

Originally Posted by BeerBaron

For ***** sake, I am tired of this ******* argument.



/discussion

That isn't the argument, though. Obvious Eli is better now and obviously Eli has had the much better career. No one is arguing that.

[NY+Giants=NYG]

abaddon41_80,

Watching ESPN Mike and Mike, and former Giant Jason Sehorn chiming in on the game. Just to make a point, he was saying Eli played well, but doesn't like body language. Seriously? LOL. This is a guy still stuck during the years where Eli was perplexed on why Burress and Shockey would be running wrong routes. I don't know what they expect? Eli to be like Cutler? Or maybe Cam newton, sulking with a towel on his head.

People who live in NC. and listening to sports talk said that Newton is getting blasted down there for his demeanor. Apparently, Smith went up to Newton on the sideline and got in his face.

But my point is this is a perfect example of how a former player, who happens to be a giant, is still fixated on something that people used to say early on a Qb's career.

So even if Smith plays like AR or someone, he will have people years after still pointing to stuff. Stats won't even sway them. So you will get frustrated if you are trying to make your case, but this is how it is, when you try to make a point using a player people already labeled as either a bust, or average or game manager type QB.

[BeerBaron]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...-warner-cable/

The NFL now has a deal with Time Warner Cable to carry the NFLN and Red Zone channels. They now have a deal with every major cable company in the US.

[cmarq83]

Why is Kuechly not in the Panthers nickel package? Hell play him at safety if that is what it takes. I don't know why the Panthers would ever take him off the field.

[BeerBaron]

Originally Posted by cmarq83

Why is Kuechly not in the Panthers nickel package? Hell play him at safety if that is what it takes. I don't know why the Panthers would ever take him off the field.

Was he really off the field for them? I kind of zoned out to the game and started flipping back and forth with one shows once it got out of hand. In what I saw, Kuechly was their only defender worth a damn.

[Caddy]

Originally Posted by BeerBaron

Was he really off the field for them? I kind of zoned out to the game and started flipping back and forth with one shows once it got out of hand. In what I saw, Kuechly was their only defender worth a damn.

I'm glad Kuechly is rebounding. He got absolutely shut down against the Bucs/Erik Lorig.

[cmarq83]

Originally Posted by BeerBaron

Was he really off the field for them? I kind of zoned out to the game and started flipping back and forth with one shows once it got out of hand. In what I saw, Kuechly was their only defender worth a damn.

I believe so, at least they took him off for a ton of passing situation snaps.

[BeerBaron]

Originally Posted by Caddy

I'm glad Kuechly is rebounding. He got absolutely shut down against the Bucs/Erik Lorig.

He sniffed out and blew up a couple of plays in the backfield in this one. He was pretty impressive. He needs some help though, the rest of that defense is very weak.

[K Train]

i think its safe to say the panthers will be in the market for a stud DT next offseason to keep LK and beason free

[BeerBaron]

Originally Posted by K Train

i think its safe to say the panthers will be in the market for a stud DT next offseason to keep LK and beason free

I was surprised when they passed on Brockers in the draft. Keuchly is great and all, but it's far easier for an athletic DT to make an impact than a stud LB these days.

[NY+Giants=NYG]

Who are the Panthers Cbs? Maybe it's time they upgrade that secondary. I love their Lbs but I think they need more DEs. DEs and secondary players they need to add. I love their Lbs though.

I expected us to lose this game last night. I am very surprised to have won. According to all the Cam Newton hype, I expected a lot worse that it was. Maybe now our schedule can be normal and not so odd.

[K Train]

Originally Posted by BeerBaron

I was surprised when they passed on Brockers in the draft. Keuchly is great and all, but it's far easier for an athletic DT to make an impact than a stud LB these days.

i thought for sure they were gonna take cox or brockers

[tjsunstein]

Originally Posted by VernonLawson89

Sounds like a Packers player

Except, you know, the Packers are coming off a 15-2 season so it holds a little bit more merit than a sophomore QB in his first primetime game against the defending champs.