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Old 02-12-2013, 11:17 AM    (permalink
bitonti
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Originally Posted by WCH View Post
Andy Reid and John Dorsey are both going to get at least three years. They have long track records of success, strong resumes, and are respected around the NFL.

Barring a scandal, nobody is getting fired until after the 2015 season.
I agree with this. Pick Geno at 1 have him stink for 3 years and get fired. (worst case). Most people want longer than that out of their jobs.
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Old 02-12-2013, 11:18 AM    (permalink
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And if you were the Chiefs, who would you take, assuming Branden Albert is locked up long term. Star? Another defensive lineman in the top 11 picks, the 4th one since 2008?
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Old 02-12-2013, 11:34 AM    (permalink
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And if you were the Chiefs, who would you take, assuming Branden Albert is locked up long term. Star? Another defensive lineman in the top 11 picks, the 4th one since 2008?
If I was a KC fan, and they took another 3-4 DE, especially at #1 overall, I would probably riot the streets. If I'm Andy Reid that's not even close to my top few ideas at #1.
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 02-12-2013, 11:37 AM    (permalink
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If I was a KC fan, and they took another 3-4 DE, especially at #1 overall, I would probably riot the streets. If I'm Andy Reid that's not even close to my top few ideas at #1.
I don't dislike Star as a prospect, but god, I'm so sick of these god damn dlinemen. And he wouldn't have near the impact that a QB would for this team. Anything can happen though, and that is scary.
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Old 02-12-2013, 01:22 PM    (permalink
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see, but the whole "sets the franchise back forever!" thing is bogus because what else do you do? Sit and wait until the perfect QB falls in your lap? You HAVE to take risks. If he's the wrong QB, then you screwed up 3 years but took that risk that Geno (or Wilson or whomever) would've panned out. That you made that gamble.

Picking star just means you've got no QB and you keep waiting for this perfect guy and you just can't do that in a QB driven league. What's the harm Geno does if he busts? You flop back and are in the same spot 3-4 years from now. new regime, you move on. If you DON'T pick Geno, you waste a year with no QB, try again next year (maybe) if a guy you like is there. Bottom line is that you NEED a QB.

And the Jets made it to the playoffs (AFC championship) with Sanchez. the mistake was the hilariously bad extension you gave him
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Old 02-12-2013, 01:28 PM    (permalink
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If you pick Geno Smith at 1 and he's the wrong QB you can't just dump him right away. 23 million dollars guaranteed means he gets chance after chance until everyone gets fired. it's not 60 million like it used to be, but it's still a huge amount of guaranteed money. In fact it's about what Sanchez got at 5 or Gabbert at 8. It's enough money that you are staking your career on the pick.

as for that statement, the key fact is picking a guy at 1 (or 2) is expecting instant improvement. If you pick Geno Smith at 10 or 20 and he sits or whatever, fair enough. If you pick him at 1 he has to start and he has to be great.

Like Carson Palmer? What if they took Geno and signed Alex Smith in Free Agency on a short contract? You still don't know how that will play out. Besides that, the Jags could easily move on from Gabbert this year and go in a new direction, regardless of his money. But what do you hear? How they want to continue to build around him. For me, these types of mistakes years in are what sets the franchise back, not making the selection on him. They can take whatever pass rusher they want to at the top, but I'd be scouting QB's and taking one here.


Let him battle it out with Henne and Gabbert. Once you get your franchise guy you can start filling holes on the team, but too many teams stick by a guy well past when it's obvious he's garbage. Sanchez was garbage when he got that extension that's why everyone laughed at the move in the first place. You don't have to out right release those guys either, just bring in some competition. If he beats out the highly drafted rookie QB then great, if not then great because you got an upgrade at QB, and in most cases you could probably still get something for 1 QB in those scenarios.


The Chiefs can literally take any position other then QB at #1 overall, and odds are highly in their favor that they will still be right back here picking in the top 5-10 again with no QB, and then when there is a perfect prospect he'll go #1 overall when they pick 7th, and then we get to recycle the same arguments all over again about how no other QB is worth a top 10 pick so maybe they should just take this lineman and play it safe.
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 02-12-2013, 01:29 PM    (permalink
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Hey peeps the Chiefs biggest need is QB. They have a chance to take the best one in this year draft. Get over it now. They are gonna take Geno and roll with him, value or not.
+rep for common sense and flat out awesomeness sir
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:05 PM    (permalink
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If I was a KC fan, and they took another 3-4 DE, especially at #1 overall, I would probably riot the streets. If I'm Andy Reid that's not even close to my top few ideas at #1.
Wouldn't that same thinking have caused Detroit to pass on Calvin Johnson? Kansas City still needs more talent on DL. Not as much as they need QB, but if they get Star and then Wilson at #33 (who KC fans seem to like) that's not a bad haul, right?
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:26 PM    (permalink
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see, but the whole "sets the franchise back forever!" thing is bogus because what else do you do? Sit and wait until the perfect QB falls in your lap? You HAVE to take risks. If he's the wrong QB, then you screwed up 3 years but took that risk that Geno (or Wilson or whomever) would've panned out. That you made that gamble.

Picking star just means you've got no QB and you keep waiting for this perfect guy and you just can't do that in a QB driven league. What's the harm Geno does if he busts? You flop back and are in the same spot 3-4 years from now. new regime, you move on. If you DON'T pick Geno, you waste a year with no QB, try again next year (maybe) if a guy you like is there. Bottom line is that you NEED a QB.

And the Jets made it to the playoffs (AFC championship) with Sanchez. the mistake was the hilariously bad extension you gave him
You make it sound like a 3-4 year bust and a new coaching regime is no matter to anyone. Good job scotty.

How bout dem Raidahzzzz! I know they are super stoked about taking Jamarcus Russell, still today. No sweat.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:28 PM    (permalink
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Wouldn't that same thinking have caused Detroit to pass on Calvin Johnson? Kansas City still needs more talent on DL. Not as much as they need QB, but if they get Star and then Wilson at #33 (who KC fans seem to like) that's not a bad haul, right?
Without the concussion issues, Wilson is clearly #1. But I'm actually scared for that guy's health. If a doctor could sell me on the idea that he'll be fine, then your idea is definitely the way to go.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:31 PM    (permalink
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The difference is a #1 pick qb who fails isn't as catastrophic to a team as it was in the past.

When you miss on Russell you lost 50 mill guaranteed. When you miss on Geno you lose 20 mill. HUGE difference.

The new rookie wage scale allows you to take a lot more risks bc the money isn't as extreme. The Jags could have gave up on Gabbert after his rookie year if they wanted to. The money wasn't an issue.

That wasn't the case in the past, and that's why a miss was so crippling. Now you can gamble a lot more and not suffer as tremendously for it.

Brandon Weeden's entire contract is worth 8 million. That's a drop in the bucket. That's nothing! There's no reason why you shouldn't gamble on a qb if you need one. It's worth the gamble now.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:33 PM    (permalink
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You make it sound like a 3-4 year bust and a new coaching regime is no matter to anyone. Good job scotty.

How bout dem Raidahzzzz! I know they are super stoked about taking Jamarcus Russell, still today. No sweat.
You make such terrible points.

The point is that waiting for a QB to fall into your lap can take just as long as drafting one that busts. Why not take the risk, because sitting on your ass and doing nothing about it certainly isn't going to change anything.

The Radiers moved on from Russell after 3 years. Nothing that has happened after that has anything to do with him.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:36 PM    (permalink
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The difference is a #1 pick qb who fails isn't as catastrophic to a team as it was in the past.

When you miss on Russell you lost 50 mill guaranteed. When you miss on Geno you lose 20 mill. HUGE difference.

The new rookie wage scale allows you to take a lot more risks bc the money isn't as extreme. The Jags could have gave up on Gabbert after his rookie year if they wanted to. The money wasn't an issue.

That wasn't the case in the past, and that's why a miss was so crippling. Now you can gamble a lot more and not suffer as tremendously for it.

Brandon Weeden's entire contract is worth 8 million. That's a drop in the bucket. That's nothing! There's no reason why you shouldn't gamble on a qb if you need one. It's worth the gamble now.
This. So much this.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:54 PM    (permalink
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For those against Geno Smith going 1/1, if it was under the old NFL draft wage scale and Smith was guaranteed $50-60 mil just for signing, I don't know if he'd still be my top pick.

That's a lot of cash to pay a rookie who isn't either someone you believe in 100% or isn't the safest top ranked player in the draft.

Honestly no unproven rookie is worth that much money.
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Old 02-12-2013, 03:00 PM    (permalink
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You make it sound like a 3-4 year bust and a new coaching regime is no matter to anyone. Good job scotty.

How bout dem Raidahzzzz! I know they are super stoked about taking Jamarcus Russell, still today. No sweat.
You do realize how massive a difference there is in payscale between Jamarcus and Geno, right? And how much that changes any argument? And how that comparison makes very little sense?

So, what should the Chiefs do? Those advocating not Geno (or Tyler, who I'd be fine with as well if KC felt he's higher than Geno)

Draft a rotational DL? Backup LT? Then what at Qb? just keep treading the waters of mediocrity? That sounds great, doesnt it chiefs fans?

You need to take risks in this league. Every team picking at #1 has a huge hole or more to fill. They need someone to turn it around, and a rotational DL or backup OT isn't going to change that. It's as simple as that. You can't wait around sitting on your hands waiting for a 2012 or 2004 draft again. You just can't.
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Old 02-12-2013, 03:08 PM    (permalink
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To me you have to play the game. You look at the #1 as an asset - which it is - and parlay it to your advantage. I don't know if the chart is still relevant, but the #1 is worth the same as three mid firsts. So the way I look at it, is if you stay put and take someone #1 who only has mid to late first value, you've wasted the equivalent of 2 mid first round picks. But that all depends on what your board looks like.
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Old 02-12-2013, 03:13 PM    (permalink
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You make such terrible points.

The point is that waiting for a QB to fall into your lap can take just as long as drafting one that busts. Why not take the risk, because sitting on your ass and doing nothing about it certainly isn't going to change anything.

The Radiers moved on from Russell after 3 years. Nothing that has happened after that has anything to do with him.
Completely ignorant post. The Raiders suffered through the Russell era and are still suffering through it today. You can't just wash away 3-4 seasons like it never happened. That's TERRRRRILBE logic!

Yeah, he's gone, but the effect is still lasting. Even if you took out the money part of it. They took him over Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Darrelle Revis... could go on and on.. Dwayne Bowe, Marshawn Lynch, Lawrence Timmons, Jon Beason, LaMarr Woodley, blah blah blah...
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Old 02-12-2013, 03:20 PM    (permalink
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You do realize how massive a difference there is in payscale between Jamarcus and Geno, right? And how much that changes any argument? And how that comparison makes very little sense?

So, what should the Chiefs do? Those advocating not Geno (or Tyler, who I'd be fine with as well if KC felt he's higher than Geno)

Draft a rotational DL? Backup LT? Then what at Qb? just keep treading the waters of mediocrity? That sounds great, doesnt it chiefs fans?

You need to take risks in this league. Every team picking at #1 has a huge hole or more to fill. They need someone to turn it around, and a rotational DL or backup OT isn't going to change that. It's as simple as that. You can't wait around sitting on your hands waiting for a 2012 or 2004 draft again. You just can't.
See, even you admit that whether it's Geno or Wilson, that you'd be fine with it. That PROVES my point! You CAN get Wilson later!

It's not that I don't think they should find a QB in this draft. It's using Geno with the first overall pick! TRADE IT! YOU STILL MIGHT GET GENO. OR take someone else and figure out how to get Wilson, Glennon, Barkley (or another QB). I'm not arguing that they should not get a QB. Just be smart about it.
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Old 02-12-2013, 03:21 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
Aaron Rodgers didn't go 1 overall, thanks for proving my point.

if the Chiefs take Geno Smith with a late first round pick and sit him for 3 years, I have no problem with that.

as D-Unit said I don't hate Geno, i just don't like him at 1. Yes every year late 1st/early 2nd round graded QBs get pushed up the board.

but they don't get pushed all the way up to 1. My problem is the value of this player. at 15 or 20, go nuts. at 1 it's a terrible reach.

i'd love to hear a Geno fan explain why he sucked so badly in the Syracuse game or in the other 4 games he was terrible in this year.
Yeah, RGIII didn't go #1 overall, either...but you brought him up as an example.

If you're going to say completely ignorant things, at least be consistent about it.

...and you said that Reid should be fired if he drafts Geno ANYWHERE and they pick top five again...

Here, allow me to remind you:
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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
If the Chiefs believe in Geno they don't believe they are top 5 again in 2014. Luck and RG3 took their teams to the playoffs as rookies. that's what a franchise QB is expected to do. If Geno gets picked (anywhere) and the chiefs are just as bad, that's a fire able decision by Andy.
Stop moving the goalposts. You said something really dumb. Time to own it.

This is just as dumb as when you said that you thought only the top five guards made over 3M per year.
Quote:
my impression was that only top 10 guards even made close to that, and maybe only half of those guys actually made over 3.
By the way, the Colts drafted Peyton Manning #1 overall and then went 3-13. Guess Irsay should have fired Polian for drafting such a crappy QB, amirite?

You're like the meatball fan from the suburbs who calls into sports radio and leaves the host absolutely speechless, even though he's used to hearing really ignorant things all day. I HATE how you make me be an asshole to you. I post here every day and disagree with things people say every day...but only you and D-Unit ever act willfully ignorant enough to make me act this douchey.
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Old 02-12-2013, 03:22 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
The difference is a #1 pick qb who fails isn't as catastrophic to a team as it was in the past.

When you miss on Russell you lost 50 mill guaranteed. When you miss on Geno you lose 20 mill. HUGE difference.

The new rookie wage scale allows you to take a lot more risks bc the money isn't as extreme. The Jags could have gave up on Gabbert after his rookie year if they wanted to. The money wasn't an issue.

That wasn't the case in the past, and that's why a miss was so crippling. Now you can gamble a lot more and not suffer as tremendously for it.

Brandon Weeden's entire contract is worth 8 million. That's a drop in the bucket. That's nothing! There's no reason why you shouldn't gamble on a qb if you need one. It's worth the gamble now.
Which also makes that pick easier to trade. So do it.

Speaking of Weeden, the Browns played it perfectly. Taking Trent and then moving back in for Weeden. Chiefs should do something similar.
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Old 02-12-2013, 03:23 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by D-Unit View Post
See, even you admit that whether it's Geno or Wilson, that you'd be fine with it. That PROVES my point! You CAN get Wilson later!

It's not that I don't think they should find a QB in this draft. It's using Geno with the first overall pick! TRADE IT! YOU STILL MIGHT GET GENO. OR take someone else and figure out how to get Wilson, Glennon, Barkley (or another QB). I'm not arguing that they should not get a QB. Just be smart about it.
No, that just proves there's no clear cut. There's absolutely zero reason to think, and i really don't know how you got that from my post, that you can get Wilson later.

There's no guarantee you get a competent QB in the first, and in this draft, you know there's hardly anyone jumping up for the #1 overall pick. That scenario is pretty low down on the list of possibilities.

That brings about the risk if KC thinks they can get "their QB" later, than I guess they do that, but take a MASSIVE risk and can have it blow up in their face. Geno and Wilson will both go first round. I don't see why KC just doesn't take one of them at #1 (unless of course they have like a Barkley at 1 and grab him in the 2nd, but even still that's a HUGE and pretty unnecessary risk)

At this point, taking Geno at 1 IS being smart about it.
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Old 02-12-2013, 03:28 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Monomach View Post
Yeah, RGIII didn't go #1 overall, either...but you brought him up as an example.

If you're going to say completely ignorant things, at least be consistent about it.

...and you said that Reid should be fired if he drafts Geno ANYWHERE and they pick top five again...

Here, allow me to remind you:

Stop moving the goalposts. You said something really dumb. Time to own it.

This is just as dumb as when you said that you thought only the top five guards made over 3M per year.


By the way, the Colts drafted Peyton Manning #1 overall and then went 3-13. Guess Irsay should have fired Polian for drafting such a crappy QB, amirite?

You're like the meatball fan from the suburbs who calls into sports radio and leaves the host absolutely speechless, even though he's used to hearing really ignorant things all day. I HATE how you make me be an asshole to you. I post here every day and disagree with things people say every day...but only you and D-Unit ever act willfully ignorant enough to make me act this douchey.
Hey at least I don't make you mad.

All I know is that Chiefs fans are hoping Geno Smith improves his arm strength.
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Old 02-12-2013, 03:30 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by scottyboy View Post
No, that just proves there's no clear cut. There's absolutely zero reason to think, and i really don't know how you got that from my post, that you can get Wilson later.

There's no guarantee you get a competent QB in the first, and in this draft, you know there's hardly anyone jumping up for the #1 overall pick. That scenario is pretty low down on the list of possibilities.

That brings about the risk if KC thinks they can get "their QB" later, than I guess they do that, but take a MASSIVE risk and can have it blow up in their face. Geno and Wilson will both go first round. I don't see why KC just doesn't take one of them at #1 (unless of course they have like a Barkley at 1 and grab him in the 2nd, but even still that's a HUGE and pretty unnecessary risk)

At this point, taking Geno at 1 IS being smart about it.
Of course there is no clear cut. Even NFL teams with professionals who do this for a living are confused. Whether you talk about ANY of the QB prospects. So taking Geno #1 overall is hardly smart.

You admit it, but don't wanna admit it. LOL.
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Old 02-12-2013, 03:33 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by D-Unit View Post
Which also makes that pick easier to trade. So do it.

Speaking of Weeden, the Browns played it perfectly. Taking Trent and then moving back in for Weeden. Chiefs should do something similar.
No they didn't. They had 2 first round picks and instead of using that as leverage to get a good qb like Griffin, they went with "value" and got a RB and a terrible QB.

They are the poster child of why you SHOULDN'T do that.

They aborted that draft. Only the Browns can **** up that badly.
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Old 02-12-2013, 03:36 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by D-Unit View Post
Completely ignorant post. The Raiders suffered through the Russell era and are still suffering through it today. You can't just wash away 3-4 seasons like it never happened. That's TERRRRRILBE logic!

Yeah, he's gone, but the effect is still lasting. Even if you took out the money part of it. They took him over Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Darrelle Revis... could go on and on.. Dwayne Bowe, Marshawn Lynch, Lawrence Timmons, Jon Beason, LaMarr Woodley, blah blah blah...
*sigh*

Do you not understand anything?

My point isn't that the Raiders didn't suffer during the Russell period and that you can just wash it away, the point is that if they hadn't taken him and instead just waited for a QB to fall into their lap, nothing would be different. They wouldn't have been successful in those 3 years. They wouldn't have been successful until they got the chance to draft a top QB again.

Lets say they picked Calvin Johnson (not at all comparable to any player in this draft), that isn't going to make them a Superbowl team. The Lions finished 4-12 this season with Calvin Johnson at receiver and beating a Jerry Rice record. Nothing is going to change until you get a QB and if the Chiefs decide to pass on one it could be a lot longer than 3 years before they get the chance to pick a decent one again.

You don't know the Chiefs CAN get Wilson later! Wtf are you talking about?

And btw i'm not saying that the Chiefs should take Geno Smith with the #1 pick. I'm saying that they should take whichever QB they think is best.
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