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Old 02-20-2013, 11:00 AM    (permalink
bitonti
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Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam View Post
I also still contend with you that the Pinstripe Bowl wasn't an awful performance for him in terms of his NFL prospects
He took 2 safeties on national TV. It was like Mark Sanchez was playing QB for WVU.

if wasn't awful it wasn't great either and 1 overall picks have to be great all the time. 200 yards in the snow isn't good in either game. Snow actually favors the passing offense as the QBs and WRs know where they are going and the defense can't change direction.

If Geno played every game like Baylor or Clemson he'd be easy 1 overall. As it stands now he's gonna have to be awesome at Indy to get there. Also I have nothing personal against this player but his decision to skip the senior Bowl reminds me of Brady Quinn. Another guy who thought he was going 1 overall but actually was off by about 2 dozen slots.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:09 AM    (permalink
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He took 2 safeties on national TV. It was like Mark Sanchez was playing QB for WVU.

if wasn't awful it wasn't great either and 1 overall picks have to be great all the time. 200 yards in the snow isn't good in either game. Snow actually favors the passing offense as the QBs and WRs know where they are going and the defense can't change direction.

If Geno played every game like Baylor or Clemson he'd be easy 1 overall. As it stands now he's gonna have to be awesome at Indy to get there.
Indy really means nothing in terms of QB evaluation, as far as throwing.
At best you get a sense of a QB's arm strength and velocity, but arm talent is demonstrated most clearly in games, not scripted passing drills.

Cam Newton looked like a 5th round draft pick when he threw at Indy. Didn't make a difference.

If Geno's only good games were Clemson and Baylor, you're right he wouldn't be a top 3 pick. Except Geno was good/great all season, which is the difference.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:11 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Black Bolt View Post
Let me tell you where you are wrong. I was 26 in 1999 and I remember that off season well. No one was comparing the draft to the 1983 at the end of the college season. McNabb, Culpepper, McKnown, and Smith all ascended in the off season prior to the draft. The only QB that was thought to be a sure high pick was Tim Couch. With respect to McNabb, he was being talked about as a WR conversion project or a late round QB. Those are the facts. So McNabb's status immediately after the college season was actually significantly LOWER than Smith's.
As I recall, the Eagle fans booed when McNabb's name was announced. If Geno's name is called for KC this year, Chiefs' fans won't boo.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:40 AM    (permalink
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Eagles fans really wanted Ricky Williams. So lulsy to think about that now.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:52 AM    (permalink
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Any of the QBs coming out this year and projected as first round guys are all better than Mark Sanchez was coming out. I am not high at all on Smith but think he is a much better prospect than Sanchez was so if he, Glennon, Barkley, Wilson or Nassib ended up in KC I would have no qualms with that. I would take any of those guys over Sanchez.

Also, with the depth of the QB position I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs double dipped at the QB position like the Redskins did last year.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:55 AM    (permalink
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I have a feeling that the Chiefs give up a 4th or 5th for Foles from the Eagles and still take a QB 1/1 or 2/34. It makes the most sense given the current QB situation here.
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:12 PM    (permalink
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If the Chiefs could get Foles for a 4th or 5th rounder that would be one of the best draft day acquisitions. He has a year in the league and a year in Reid's system. He played well considering that team was a mess and had given up on Reid.
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:28 PM    (permalink
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If the Chiefs could get Foles for a 4th or 5th rounder that would be one of the best draft day acquisitions. He has a year in the league and a year in Reid's system. He played well considering that team was a mess and had given up on Reid.
Yeah, I agree. Anything more than a 4th would really piss me off. Foles hasn't shown anything to me to be worth more than his original draft position, and our 3rd is the first pick in the 3rd round.

Giving up a 4th for Foles, who has experience in the system, and still drafting Geno/Barkley/Wilson though? Our QB situation went from the worst in the NFL to a very solid group. And we could potentially add a veteran from somewhere too. Maybe even Cassel could restructure and stay, idk. Just thinkin outloud here.
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:41 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, I agree. Anything more than a 4th would really piss me off. Foles hasn't shown anything to me to be worth more than his original draft position, and our 3rd is the first pick in the 3rd round.

Giving up a 4th for Foles, who has experience in the system, and still drafting Geno/Barkley/Wilson though? Our QB situation went from the worst in the NFL to a very solid group. And we could potentially add a veteran from somewhere too. Maybe even Cassel could restructure and stay, idk. Just thinkin outloud here.
Yep - that's what these forums are here for...lol.

I am more excited by this draft than last year's - the QB roulette in this draft is going to be fun to watch. I really want to see where Smith, Barkley, Wilson, Nassib and Glennon end up.
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:59 PM    (permalink
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I don't see why the Eagles would give up Foles for anything less than what they used to draft him in the first place: a 3rd round pick.

They're probably not even going to part with him for less than a 2nd rounder. There is really no downside to keeping him on their roster. We all know Michael Vick can't stay healthy for a whole season; Foles will find playing time even if he isn't a 100% fit for Chip Kelly's system.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:14 PM    (permalink
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For me, the primary value of Foles is his knowledge of Reid's system and the verbiage that system uses. He would make the transition easier for the rest of the team. That said...a second for a guy that was 1-6 in games he started with the Eagles!!! A guy that doesn't fit in Chip Kelly's system. I'll burn my Chiefs gear in the front yard.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:14 PM    (permalink
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I don't see why the Eagles would give up Foles for anything less than what they used to draft him in the first place: a 3rd round pick.

They're probably not even going to part with him for less than a 2nd rounder. There is really no downside to keeping him on their roster. We all know Michael Vick can't stay healthy for a whole season; Foles will find playing time even if he isn't a 100% fit for Chip Kelly's system.
Because the new regime has no ties to Foles and he doesn't really fit the prototype for Chip Kelly's offense. And they re-upped Vick which is a sign they don't view Foles as the now and tomorrow.

They'd rather get what they can than hold on to a guy of little or no use to them. Kelly is going to want to hand-pick his own guy. Someone with mobility, a quick-release, and a quick-thinker. Foles isn't that.

Same reason Lombardi is going to shop Weeden around and will ultimately take less than a late first. Unless his coaches talk him out of it.
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Old 02-20-2013, 02:23 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
if Geno is picked 1 overall and he fails, that means alot of losses. Losing seasons plus the 23 million dollars is not a great way to keep an NFL job.

funny how all the Geno fans love this guy who can't function in the snow. Doesn't it snow in Kansas City? At important times of the football year?
Losing games and getting fired isn't tied to Geno. If they pick Joeckel or anyone there and lose games it's safe to assume jobs will be lost. It's not just Geno. The Browns took Joe Thomas and have been a losing franchise his whole career and jobs have been lost. Off the top of my head the Phins have only had 1 winning season since taking Jake Long...and jobs were lost. Scott Pioli really only took two swings at the QB position in 4 seasons: A second to the Pats for Cassel and a late round pick on Stanzi. And he got fired. So it's not just people getting fired for losing games with Geno. That's going to happen if they lose no matter who they pick there.

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Old 02-20-2013, 02:32 PM    (permalink
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Any of the QBs coming out this year and projected as first round guys are all better than Mark Sanchez was coming out. I am not high at all on Smith but think he is a much better prospect than Sanchez was so if he, Glennon, Barkley, Wilson or Nassib ended up in KC I would have no qualms with that. I would take any of those guys over Sanchez.

Also, with the depth of the QB position I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs double dipped at the QB position like the Redskins did last year.
They'd be smart to do so, IMO. Brady Quinn is a UFA and struggled last season. Matt Cassel just cannot play for this team for a number of reasons. One being he's like an $8 million dollar cap hit. And...there was a crawl across one of the NFL news pieces that if he doesn't take a pretty significant pay cut he's going to be let go. It's been reported that the Chiefs can save a few million under the cap to cut him as it is right now. If that happens, that only leave Ricki "Good Hair" Stanzi, who has looked awful to date as a Chief. So it'd probably be wise for the Chiefs to take more than one swing at QB in this draft.
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Old 02-20-2013, 04:09 PM    (permalink
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He took 2 safeties on national TV. It was like Mark Sanchez was playing QB for WVU.

if wasn't awful it wasn't great either and 1 overall picks have to be great all the time. 200 yards in the snow isn't good in either game. Snow actually favors the passing offense as the QBs and WRs know where they are going and the defense can't change direction.

If Geno played every game like Baylor or Clemson he'd be easy 1 overall. As it stands now he's gonna have to be awesome at Indy to get there. Also I have nothing personal against this player but his decision to skip the senior Bowl reminds me of Brady Quinn. Another guy who thought he was going 1 overall but actually was off by about 2 dozen slots.
So much insanity in that statement don't know where to begin
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Old 02-20-2013, 07:24 PM    (permalink
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if wasn't awful it wasn't great either and 1 overall picks have to be great all the time.
This statement is beyond ridiculous.
There have never been a #1 overall pick that didnīt have bad games in college. Andrew Luck had very bad games during his college career for crying out loud. (Oregon and Notre Dame comes to mind.) One game does not make or break a prospect.
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Old 02-20-2013, 07:32 PM    (permalink
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This statement is beyond ridiculous.
There have never been a #1 overall pick that didnīt have bad games in college. Andrew Luck had very bad games during his college career for crying out loud. (Oregon and Notre Dame comes to mind.) One game does not make or break a prospect.
PEYTON MANNING IS A CHOKE ARTIST! HE CAN'T BEAT FLORIDA! /bitonti in '98
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Old 02-21-2013, 01:40 AM    (permalink
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Any of the QBs coming out this year and projected as first round guys are all better than Mark Sanchez was coming out. I am not high at all on Smith but think he is a much better prospect than Sanchez was so if he, Glennon, Barkley, Wilson or Nassib ended up in KC I would have no qualms with that. I would take any of those guys over Sanchez.

Also, with the depth of the QB position I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs double dipped at the QB position like the Redskins did last year.
Such a ridiculous statement. I don't think any of these QBs are a better prospect at this stage in the evaluation than Sanchez was at the same stage. Scouts didn't have a scrying glass like you're using to evaluate Sanchez. We could look back in 4 years and say every one of these QBs was a bust and 2013 was void of any talent at qb. Could very easily happen. If most scouts aren't giving top 20 or 1st round grades to any QBs then none of them are a better prospect than Sanchez was at this stage in the evaluation.
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Old 02-21-2013, 01:42 AM    (permalink
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PEYTON MANNING IS A CHOKE ARTIST! HE CAN'T BEAT FLORIDA! /bitonti in '98
To be fair, Peyton has been legendarily bad in the playoffs with the one exception, he's basically the ARod of football
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Old 02-21-2013, 02:18 AM    (permalink
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To be fair, Peyton has been legendarily bad in the playoffs with the one exception, he's basically the ARod of football
To be fair, his playoff passer rating is just as high as Tom Brady's. Amazing how a better defense, O line, and Adam Vinatieri bailing his QB out is the difference between "all-time clutch" and "choker."

We're about to have another Manning/Brady thread. I want to kill NFLDC with fire.

Also, A-Rod choking in the playoffs is a myth. .864 career playoff OPS. One year does not a career make.

Narratives like "so and so sucks in the playofs" are just terrible because once you say them enough, people start to believe them no matter what the truth is.

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Old 02-21-2013, 08:35 AM    (permalink
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He took 2 safeties on national TV. It was like Mark Sanchez was playing QB for WVU.

if wasn't awful it wasn't great either and 1 overall picks have to be great all the time. 200 yards in the snow isn't good in either game. Snow actually favors the passing offense as the QBs and WRs know where they are going and the defense can't change direction.

If Geno played every game like Baylor or Clemson he'd be easy 1 overall. As it stands now he's gonna have to be awesome at Indy to get there. Also I have nothing personal against this player but his decision to skip the senior Bowl reminds me of Brady Quinn. Another guy who thought he was going 1 overall but actually was off by about 2 dozen slots.
Taking two safeties does not say much about him as a prospect to be honest. I don't care all that much if he was showcasing good decisions for the rest of the game (which he was for the most part,) and showing NFL talent, which he also was.

It wasn't like Mark Sanchez out there, look at Mark Sanchez's last game as a college player, he was amazing. That translated well. It isn't a be all end all by any means.

And yardage isn't the only thing. Not throwing an interception in any snow game is pretty darn good IMO as it is, and he converted big plays for TDs in both.
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Old 02-21-2013, 08:43 AM    (permalink
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To be fair, his playoff passer rating is just as high as Tom Brady's. Amazing how a better defense, O line, and Adam Vinatieri bailing his QB out is the difference between "all-time clutch" and "choker."

We're about to have another Manning/Brady thread. I want to kill NFLDC with fire.

Also, A-Rod choking in the playoffs is a myth. .864 career playoff OPS. One year does not a career make.

Narratives like "so and so sucks in the playofs" are just terrible because once you say them enough, people start to believe them no matter what the truth is.

This is so true.

Just because Flacco got extremely lucky and floated a Hail Mary down field which the idiot safety of the Broncos misplayed like a 10-year old Pee Wee player... means that Peyton Manning is a choker?

The Broncos had that game won and deserved to win. Peyton Manning should have been in that AFCCG. But Rahim Moore blew it single-handed for them.
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:07 AM    (permalink
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Losing games and getting fired isn't tied to Geno. If they pick Joeckel or anyone there and lose games it's safe to assume jobs will be lost. It's not just Geno. The Browns took Joe Thomas and have been a losing franchise his whole career and jobs have been lost. Off the top of my head the Phins have only had 1 winning season since taking Jake Long...and jobs were lost. Scott Pioli really only took two swings at the QB position in 4 seasons: A second to the Pats for Cassel and a late round pick on Stanzi. And he got fired. So it's not just people getting fired for losing games with Geno. That's going to happen if they lose no matter who they pick there.
Agree with all that. was responding to the guy who said the Chiefs could pick Geno, at 1, he could fail, and it would be a_ok. The new CBA didn't eliminate the importance of getting the pick at 1 correct. Yes making a 23 mil dollar mistake is better than a 60 mil dollar mistake but they are both bad .
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:10 AM    (permalink
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Taking two safeties does not say much about him as a prospect to be honest.
why? It was on national TV in a playoff like atmosphere. Why doesn't it say much about him as a prospect?

it seems to me like the Geno at 1 crowd ignores or forgets about his bad games. If evaluate this guy, evaluate the whole body of work. He's got some amazing games, some not so amazing games. In another year he'd be in the late 1 convo, which is probably where he deserves to go. 1 overall is too early for a guy with no special physical gifts and an up-and-down record of production.
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Old 02-21-2013, 09:15 AM    (permalink
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why? It was on national TV in a playoff like atmosphere. Why doesn't it say much about him as a prospect?

it seems to me like the Geno at 1 crowd ignores or forgets about his bad games. If evaluate this guy, evaluate the whole body of work. He's got some amazing games, some not so amazing games. In another year he'd be in the late 1 convo, which is probably where he deserves to go. 1 overall is too early for a guy with no special physical gifts and an up-and-down record of production.
I mean the specific taking of safeties doesn't say much about him as a prospect. You can ding his FBI grade for it if you want, but in general, his football intelligence in his system has been above average. It isn't people ignoring bad games, but seeing how the bad games aren't awful, especially when compared to the rest of this class.

Maybe he should go late first, but I'd argue that players with his physical tools (downfield arm, mobility, good ball placement,) have often overcome and improved on mental and technique deficiencies. Plays like Josh Freeman, Aaron Rodgers, etc. Is 1 too early if he turns into a franchise QB? It isn't, whether he grades out as late first or second rounder.

It all depends on what the Chiefs think. If Andy Reid points at Geno Smith and feels he can make Geno a franchise QB and a QB who can win a Super Bowl, you take him 1, no questions asked, no matter where you grade him out because he won't be there in Round 2 and it is too risky otherwise.
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